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Per ESPNs analytics issue, the Chargers are classified as 'non-believers' along with three other NFL clubs (NYJ, Redskins and Tennessee) and are ranked in the bottom ten of all US pro sports franchises (along with the Lakers).
Here's their analysis:
When it comes to playing the numbers on fourth down, an area in which advanced stats separate the believers from the pagans, Chargers coach Mike McCoy says, "I'm going to go with my gut decision on those things. No one can tell me on a piece of paper this is the right thing or the wrong thing to do." And that close-mindedness shows: Since 2012, San Diego has ranked second-to-last in the league according to win probability gained on fourth-down, which determines how much a team improves its chances of winning by going for it when the metrics recommend it. GM Tom Telesco emphasizes the importance of "good football decisions," based on instincts and "hard old-school scouting." Upon joining the Chargers in 2013, he indicated an openness to bringing stats to his evaluations. But his background is in scouting, and he cut his teeth in an Indianapolis Colts front office led by Bill Polian, who vocally opposes the use of analytics in football, especially in regard to personnel decisions.
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Hard to assess what the club really thinks and does simply based on who the decision makers are and statements to the media, but I will confess that I do not see them as being that sophisticated in the field and that I dont see that kind of linear thinking in many aspects of their operation (business, personnel, coaching).
That said, we've discussed on this board some of the issues associated with applying statistical methods to football and its not the complete or exact science portrayed. So not even one NFL team cracks the overall top 10.
But if you look at the teams ranked as believers in the NFL they include SF, NE, Philly and the Ravens. So pardon the pun if I say 'do the math.'
Thoughts?
Here's their analysis:
When it comes to playing the numbers on fourth down, an area in which advanced stats separate the believers from the pagans, Chargers coach Mike McCoy says, "I'm going to go with my gut decision on those things. No one can tell me on a piece of paper this is the right thing or the wrong thing to do." And that close-mindedness shows: Since 2012, San Diego has ranked second-to-last in the league according to win probability gained on fourth-down, which determines how much a team improves its chances of winning by going for it when the metrics recommend it. GM Tom Telesco emphasizes the importance of "good football decisions," based on instincts and "hard old-school scouting." Upon joining the Chargers in 2013, he indicated an openness to bringing stats to his evaluations. But his background is in scouting, and he cut his teeth in an Indianapolis Colts front office led by Bill Polian, who vocally opposes the use of analytics in football, especially in regard to personnel decisions.
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Hard to assess what the club really thinks and does simply based on who the decision makers are and statements to the media, but I will confess that I do not see them as being that sophisticated in the field and that I dont see that kind of linear thinking in many aspects of their operation (business, personnel, coaching).
That said, we've discussed on this board some of the issues associated with applying statistical methods to football and its not the complete or exact science portrayed. So not even one NFL team cracks the overall top 10.
But if you look at the teams ranked as believers in the NFL they include SF, NE, Philly and the Ravens. So pardon the pun if I say 'do the math.'
Thoughts?
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