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  • Originally posted by Xenos View Post
    Here’s an interesting stat: we were top 5 in 4th down conversions and only us and the Ravens failed to make the playoffs. The other three were the Chiefs, Bengals, and Patriots. Maybe the problems weren’t going for it. Maybe the problem was, I don’t know, giving up so many third downs on defense.

    https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask?q=h...ersion%25+2021
    People would rather just howl at the moon than research, delve into evidence, or only count the misses/ignore the hits (opposite of most instances). It is simple conformation bias. We all do it to a degree but the ones who do research/find evidence are typically more rational and more often than not correct in the debate.
    ‘Screaming at the top of your lungs is therapeutic at times though.
    My 2021 Adopt-A-Bolt List

    MikeDub
    K9
    Nasir
    Tillery
    Parham
    Reed

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    • Originally posted by JAFA View Post
      You're dreaming! No team has a competent (enough) backup QB. Why do you think the league owners instituted such a high level of protection for them? They're too expensive to lose and no-one want to watch a team playing it's 2nd string QB as it generally wont be a competitive game. If your starting QB goes down, so does the team. We're even more imbalanced in this because Herbert is sooo good and Stick is sooo not good.

      I would love to have a quality backup QB, but really - who does? If Rodgers goes down in GB is Jordon Love going to win in his place (no)? Geno Smith in place of Russel Wilson?? And does anyone know who the backup QB is in Tampa?? Or KC? I don't.
      Huntley looked halfway competent for the Ravens and now people are asking if he’s worth a first rounder. If we’ve got an excellent backup, I would argue to flip him for a high draft pick and not look back. This team isn’t winning a Super Bowl unless we have Justin Herbert behind center. At best, you hope you have a backup QB who can help you go 2-2 over a four game stretch. And that depends on having an above average roster.

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      • Originally posted by like54ninjas View Post

        People would rather just howl at the moon than research, delve into evidence, or only count the misses/ignore the hits (opposite of most instances). It is simple conformation bias. We all do it to a degree but the ones who do research/find evidence are typically more rational and more often than not correct in the debate.
        ‘Screaming at the top of your lungs is therapeutic at times though.
        I will say that the caveat should be us improving on early downs especially first and second. This way we have less 4th downs to deal with, and less people will be upset when Staley does go for it lol.

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        • Originally posted by like54ninjas View Post

          People would rather just howl at the moon than research, delve into evidence, or only count the misses/ignore the hits (opposite of most instances). It is simple conformation bias. We all do it to a degree but the ones who do research/find evidence are typically more rational and more often than not correct in the debate.
          ‘Screaming at the top of your lungs is therapeutic at times though.
          When we were converting fourth downs early in the year everyone was saying he was the front runner for coach of the year.

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          • Originally posted by Parcells View Post

            Huntley looked halfway competent for the Ravens and now people are asking if he’s worth a first rounder. If we’ve got an excellent backup, I would argue to flip him for a high draft pick and not look back. This team isn’t winning a Super Bowl unless we have Justin Herbert behind center. At best, you hope you have a backup QB who can help you go 2-2 over a four game stretch. And that depends on having an above average roster.
            Who can forget that great run by Nick Foles of all people.

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            • Originally posted by Parcells View Post

              Huntley looked halfway competent for the Ravens and now people are asking if he’s worth a first rounder. If we’ve got an excellent backup, I would argue to flip him for a high draft pick and not look back. This team isn’t winning a Super Bowl unless we have Justin Herbert behind center. At best, you hope you have a backup QB who can help you go 2-2 over a four game stretch. And that depends on having an above average roster.
              Agreed - Huntley did look 'adequate', but was still a significant drop off from Lamar. And I agree with your plan if we had an excellent backup - trade him for someone who will help the starter win.

              I think it was Bruce Arians when he was with the colts who, when asked why the colts backup QB's didn't get any practice reps (all went to PM), said something like; 'If 16 isn't on the field we aren't winning anyway - and we don't practice losing'. That's says it all.

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              • Originally posted by JAFA View Post

                Agreed - Huntley did look 'adequate', but was still a significant drop off from Lamar. And I agree with your plan if we had an excellent backup - trade him for someone who will help the starter win.

                I think it was Bruce Arians when he was with the colts who, when asked why the colts backup QB's didn't get any practice reps (all went to PM), said something like; 'If 16 isn't on the field we aren't winning anyway - and we don't practice losing'. That's says it all.
                When I get reincarnated I want to come back as a 2nd string NFL QB; Get paid millions a year to be a 'sounding board' and/or 'support system component' for the starter, almost never take a meaningful snap (or get hit) and, if I ever HAD to play in a regular season game (preseason doesn't count) don't have to worry about winning - because it's not expected!!

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                • Your backup QB needs to be able to help in a pinch, but really, their #1 job should be to go against your defense.

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                  • Originally posted by Parcells View Post

                    When we were converting fourth downs early in the year everyone was saying he was the front runner for coach of the year.
                    I don’t think it’s fair to make this a black or white issue unless every 4th down decision has exactly the same risk/reward odds.

                    They obviously don’t. The risk of failing from the 50 yard line is much lower than from the 18.

                    All of us applauded the majority of his 4th down decisions throughout the season whether they were successful or not.

                    It’s just a couple that were not worth the risk, IMO.


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                    • I’d love to be paid millions to be a backup QB where I’m expected to lose.

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                      • I see it 4th and Staley

                        Punting from 18 would put ball near LVR 30-40 yrd line. This also assumes the risk of blocked punt (we know it well and would half expect it here). The LVR would be 2-3 plays from FG range anyway. Knowing the Def couldnt stop LVR the better reward was successful 4th down vs hoping Def holds outside fg range. Add on our red zone Def was not atrocious then it was an educated gamble

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                        • Originally posted by cmplxgal View Post
                          Sometimes Staley sounds like a fortune cookie:

                          This quote makes more sense with video context now. Less cheesy IMO.

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