Tweet
Originally posted by foreigner
View Post
-
Except he’s not bullshitting us. Not sure where you’re getting that. Data shows that you don’t need a good running game to set up PA.
-
Regarding our RB stable, one of TT's biggest failures this past offseason was failing to sign a DECENT FA RB...and Ballage didn't cut it...TT was assuming that Kelley and/or Rountree would be the answer...so far, Kelley hasn't impressed...Rountree is about a #3 RB in the rotation...we sorely needed a solid FA as our #2 RB to back up Ekkie...Originally posted by foreigner View PostComment
-
I believe his statement was sort of connected to Sean McVey in a way. It was McVey on Hard Knocks that said the key to play action isnt the run....its selling the fake. My guess is Staley was suggesting you dont have to have a dominant run game....just the ability to sell the fake.
Enough of a run game to make play action work.Comment
-
Plus this!Originally posted by Fleet Admin View Post
The analytics says you don't have to establish the run for effective play action -- though players and coaches still believe it's crucial
The relationship between play action effectiveness and the run game is a subject that should be further researched in more detail. A play-action pass play's objective is to get defenders out of position with a run fake. Which means an offense has to run the ball effectively to set up the play action, right? Well, actually ... the answer is not as simple as you might think. Research from both Hermsmeyer and Baldwin has shown that not only is play action much more effective than regular drop-back passing, it is also effective regardless of rushing attempts or rushing success.
Baldwin took the difference between each team's yards per pass on play action and their yards per pass on regular drop backs and related it with total rushes, rushing attempts and rushing success rate. He found that each rushing category did not impact the effectiveness of play action.
The chart shows that a higher number of total rushes, percentage of runs to pass and rushing success rate did not lead to an increase in play-action passing effectiveness compared with a team's drop-back passing effectiveness.
In the past, we have generally accepted that running the ball more frequently or with more success will cause linebackers to bite harder on play fakes, but player tracking data shows that might not be true. Hermsmeyer did a study using player data to track the distance that linebackers wasted moving up toward the line of scrimmage reacting to play fakes before retreating back to coverage on play-action plays. The average distance remained consistent until the 12th time a play-action play was called in a game. After the 12th time play action was called, the average went up and down but this fluctuation might be a result of a small sample size (play callers haven't called more than 12 play actions very often).
Hermsmeyer theorized that play action's sustained effectiveness in deceiving linebackers could be due to the fact stopping the run has been so ingrained in them from youth to the pros that it's almost second nature. Additionally, during a play, linebackers are focused on reading and reacting to their keys and might not be conscious of how many times an offense has run play action throughout a game.
Former NFL linebacker Kirk Morrison believes there is truth to the fact linebackers almost always have to respect the run fake in certain situations. "You don't want to get to your gap late," he explained. For example, linebackers are more likely to bite on first and long than third and long.
But Morrison, as well as other coaches and players, are also adamant that a team that is running the ball well does indeed force linebackers to fill their gaps quicker.
There is validity to Baldwin's conclusion that play action is still effective without establishing the run, as well as Hermsmeyer's conclusion that play action doesn't lose its effectiveness after repeated use. An NFL coach even told me teams aren't using enough play action. But it would be a mistake to ignore the testimonials and experiences of players and coaches who have seen firsthand how running success can get defenses to bite harder on run fakes.
"If a team is ripping off 5-6 yard gains, you are definitely trying to jump up and get there," said Morrison. "If you respect the offensive line, you don't want to get there late. A split second could get you beat in terms of an offensive lineman swallowing up a linebacker."
There could be other factors at play that haven't been tested or perhaps can't be measured. For example, the distance wasted by linebackers on play fakes could be affected by the type of coverage that they are in. If a linebacker has a running back in man-to-man coverage, he might continue to move toward the running back to cover him. Also, the data could be skewed by teams that didn't use play action enough, resulting in an unreliably small sample size.Comment
-
I don't buy into the whole TT sucks thing. Maybe because I can clearly recall prior GM's. Was Herbert a bad pick? Was trading up for Murray an overreach? Armchair gm's crack me up. Draft picks are a crap shoot. You're going hit on some and lose on some. That's the hardest part of stacking a roster. Rarely can you fill all holes in 1 offseason. He took care of the O-line from 32nd to currently 9th. Complain about a RB? I could care less about a stud RB. We have a stud QB give him a stable of running backs. Just like now. With JH this offense will always be a pass first run last offense as it should be. Rountree has flashed for our power back. JJ is injured a lot so he rotates with Kelly. The only thing we're lacking on the offense is a 3rd WR. I'm not a Guyton fan. We need a burner on the outside.
Anyway he hired Staley and this hire will be his legacy. Will you give him credit for the hire that's the question.Comment
-
Ekeler is not a stud RB? Are we really complaining about not having a good enough backup RB? I think at least half of the teams in the league don’t have a great #2 back and also don’t have a #1 RB as good as Ekeler.
Comment
-
How about Lindsay at a low price ?Comment
-
-
No TT does not suck, but he is not great either... I feel like some of you guys are happy with mediocrity. TT is average, will we sniff a Superbowl with average? Doubtful... Will we make the playoffs with average? Likely. Murray was a huge overreach in hindsight, but TT also has a history of whiffing on certain positions and Linebacker is one of them. The facts are against TT when it comes to mid to late round picks. WE HAVE NO DEPTH and certain starters are purely mediocre... TT will not lead this team to a Superbowl, he has been here since 2013 and the team has been spinning its wheels since.Originally posted by SuperCharged View PostComment
-
TT doesn't make trades during the season, unless it's for a future draft pick. Which is catching up to the team. I don't know what the issue is. Maybe he can't spend money because he has hands tied to the Spanos. What ever the deal is (no pun intended), it causes the organization to be stagnant. Moves in the off-season aren't enough. Signing players off the waiver wire for the cheap is not enough. This has to change. TT to needs to acquire players during the season, and change things up for the better, or he can find himself working a different job elsewhere.Originally posted by AFboltfan View PostComment
-
/agreedOriginally posted by ChargersPowderBlue View Post
Its my biggest complaint with him other than his incompetence after the 1st/2nd round... His "Coupon Tom" nickname is fitting.Comment
-
Perhaps the challenge is trades have to be a win for both parties and we tend to like our own draft picks and FA to fill our roster….its a philosophy.
im not saying TT is all world but i will bet there are many teams that would like our roster. We have a very good roster and im not sure whom else to give credit to but TT. We have not hit on the HC to me has been our biggest problem but look out there…how many head coaches have even been on a team 5 years right now? Its not many…it is the hardest hire to make and its got to be a good marriage to succeed long term.
i really think Staley may be THE one weve been waiting for to make this roster go. Its not done though folks…this is year 1 . He needs another year to really make the push to build this D imo and shore things up. He is still doing more than Gus and Lynn though…we just need patience to get further to a championshipComment
Comment