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  • Originally posted by 21&500 View Post

    Yes. A legitimate theme, not by coincidence.
    Herbert will have a significantly greater number of drives this season.
    Just 1 turnover giving Herb another scoring drive makes alot of those 1 score games out of reach.

    Comment


    • From your guys’ mouths to the Almighty Whozit’s ear.

      Comment




      • #22 S JT Woods

        @2:08. Check out the second snap of the 2022 Sugar Bowl.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by ghost View Post


          #22 S JT Woods

          @2:08. Check out the second snap of the 2022 Sugar Bowl.
          Hopefully Mahomes, Carr and Wilson will learn the hard way why his nicknamed the heartbreaker

          Comment


          • Originally posted by sonorajim View Post

            If Staley wanted a decent S, they were going fast. Picks 14, 31, 32, 37, 48, 62 ,79, 96, 97, etc were Safties
            Woods was ranked #8 S, we took him 7th.
            Last year Stalesco took Palmer in 3rd. Not a lousy precedent, as good or better would be nice.
            I’m not aghast at the pick as the worst reach in history, like some teeth gnashes here. I’m good with the pick if he can play - as that will set Derwin free and that is the goal here. Palmer comparison may prove to be prescient, good one. I am quite good with the Palmer pick, i think he’s going to be a solid professional WR for a decade and I see him as KA’s heir apparent in another year, 2 max.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by chaincrusher View Post

              Consensus big boards are comprised of analyses from hundreds of sources. If your suggestion is that consensus big boards are not really consensus big boards, we will have to agree to disagree.
              I didn't say there was such a thing as a "consensus board". The whole mock draft thing and grading is an effort to get consensus. It just doesn't mean anything.

              However, if you are an NFL team, who gives a shit. It is meaningless. The draft is completely about finding good players and getting guys who can play well in the system we play.

              If we took JT Woods "early" (at really stupid judgement IMHO), it can be for a lot of reasons.

              1). We only have so much ability to adjust our draft position. If you want a player, and you have a feeling that a player may get taken prior to your next pick, then you either have to take them or risk losing them.
              2). Teams covet exceptional qualities of players, particularly speed. Having watched our team get smashed by KC the last couple of years, I think it is pretty self-explainatory. I don't think they wanted to play it safe and wait for Woods to drop to them, then you take him when you can get him. Again, I think for Woods this was because of scheme fit.
              3). You can't always trade up/down when you want. It takes two teams and plenty of teams want a king's ransom to give up their picks, especially if you want a particular guy. Some teams pull it off, some can't.
              4). The more people evaluate the draft value, the more they realize that there is not as much difference between 4th and later rounds. And since "value" is relative anywhere, there is no way you can possibly be objective.....
              5). Besides, the draft is mostly a crap shoot anyway.
              6). In the end, the only way to really grade a draft pick value is all done based on how they perform on the field, and that takes time.

              If anything analytics studies have suggested that draft success tends to be fleeting at best. Teams have good drafts some years and bad drafts and if you look at them over any length of time, the "skill" averages out.

              One big thing that will probably "hurt" our draft success this year is that we had so many draft picks. With so many draft picks, and many of the team's holes filled via FA, there are not as many chances of players to get playing time and develop, and in the long term that is one of the best metrics for a player's overall success. Putting draft picks on the practice squad just lets other teams poach them.

              I think TT and Staley knew that and were swinging for the fences.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by dmac_bolt View Post

                I’m not aghast at the pick as the worst reach in history, like some teeth gnashes here. I’m good with the pick if he can play - as that will set Derwin free and that is the goal here. Palmer comparison may prove to be prescient, good one. I am quite good with the Palmer pick, i think he’s going to be a solid professional WR for a decade and I see him as KA’s heir apparent in another year, 2 max.
                DB starters and depth speed and ball skills looks impressive. The pass rush and coverage units are huge assets for each other. This is not last year's defense.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by ghost View Post


                  #22 S JT Woods

                  @2:08. Check out the second snap of the 2022 Sugar Bowl.
                  Wow, impressive pick by Woods. Not only did he go up the ladder to high point the rock, but he held onto it after contact...hope so see a lot more of that with the Bolts!

                  Comment


                  • Closing speed is ridiculous.
                    ball carriers look like slow motion compared to him.

                    Jaguar vs fat kid with honey on his knees
                    Family*Trust*respect
                    Classic 'Roo > time

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Steve View Post
                      I didn't say there was such a thing as a "consensus board". The whole mock draft thing and grading is an effort to get consensus. It just doesn't mean anything.

                      However, if you are an NFL team, who gives a shit. It is meaningless. The draft is completely about finding good players and getting guys who can play well in the system we play.

                      If we took JT Woods "early" (at really stupid judgement IMHO), it can be for a lot of reasons.

                      1). We only have so much ability to adjust our draft position. If you want a player, and you have a feeling that a player may get taken prior to your next pick, then you either have to take them or risk losing them.
                      2). Teams covet exceptional qualities of players, particularly speed. Having watched our team get smashed by KC the last couple of years, I think it is pretty self-explainatory. I don't think they wanted to play it safe and wait for Woods to drop to them, then you take him when you can get him. Again, I think for Woods this was because of scheme fit.
                      3). You can't always trade up/down when you want. It takes two teams and plenty of teams want a king's ransom to give up their picks, especially if you want a particular guy. Some teams pull it off, some can't.
                      4). The more people evaluate the draft value, the more they realize that there is not as much difference between 4th and later rounds. And since "value" is relative anywhere, there is no way you can possibly be objective.....
                      5). Besides, the draft is mostly a crap shoot anyway.
                      6). In the end, the only way to really grade a draft pick value is all done based on how they perform on the field, and that takes time.

                      If anything analytics studies have suggested that draft success tends to be fleeting at best. Teams have good drafts some years and bad drafts and if you look at them over any length of time, the "skill" averages out.

                      One big thing that will probably "hurt" our draft success this year is that we had so many draft picks. With so many draft picks, and many of the team's holes filled via FA, there are not as many chances of players to get playing time and develop, and in the long term that is one of the best metrics for a player's overall success. Putting draft picks on the practice squad just lets other teams poach them.

                      I think TT and Staley knew that and were swinging for the fences.
                      you only get so many picks and they knew he would not be there by the time they picked again in the 4th. No pick is a waste if there are certain things a player can bring to the team that are un-coachable and the player is intelligent enough to be coached in other areas. If this team got 20% better every where then we are going to be scary!

                      Super bowl Bound 2023. Yeah Baby!

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Steve View Post
                        I didn't say there was such a thing as a "consensus board". The whole mock draft thing and grading is an effort to get consensus. It just doesn't mean anything.

                        However, if you are an NFL team, who gives a shit. It is meaningless. The draft is completely about finding good players and getting guys who can play well in the system we play.

                        If we took JT Woods "early" (at really stupid judgement IMHO), it can be for a lot of reasons.

                        1). We only have so much ability to adjust our draft position. If you want a player, and you have a feeling that a player may get taken prior to your next pick, then you either have to take them or risk losing them.
                        2). Teams covet exceptional qualities of players, particularly speed. Having watched our team get smashed by KC the last couple of years, I think it is pretty self-explainatory. I don't think they wanted to play it safe and wait for Woods to drop to them, then you take him when you can get him. Again, I think for Woods this was because of scheme fit.
                        3). You can't always trade up/down when you want. It takes two teams and plenty of teams want a king's ransom to give up their picks, especially if you want a particular guy. Some teams pull it off, some can't.
                        4). The more people evaluate the draft value, the more they realize that there is not as much difference between 4th and later rounds. And since "value" is relative anywhere, there is no way you can possibly be objective.....
                        5). Besides, the draft is mostly a crap shoot anyway.
                        6). In the end, the only way to really grade a draft pick value is all done based on how they perform on the field, and that takes time.

                        If anything analytics studies have suggested that draft success tends to be fleeting at best. Teams have good drafts some years and bad drafts and if you look at them over any length of time, the "skill" averages out.

                        One big thing that will probably "hurt" our draft success this year is that we had so many draft picks. With so many draft picks, and many of the team's holes filled via FA, there are not as many chances of players to get playing time and develop, and in the long term that is one of the best metrics for a player's overall success. Putting draft picks on the practice squad just lets other teams poach them.

                        I think TT and Staley knew that and were swinging for the fences.
                        Under your analysis, there would have been nothing wrong with us taking Woods at #17 overall. That is ridiculous. What happened was the same problem as that, just to a lesser degree.

                        The goal of the draft is to get the best players possible and a team that reaches does not do that--period.

                        While being nowhere near infallible, of course the presence of a consensus regarding a player means something. It is foolish of a GM to think that he and only he has a monopoly on the correct analysis of a player when that analysis is at odds with the gigantic consensus rating of a player.

                        And even when the GM strongly believes in a player, he should consider what the consensus means in terms of where the player he thinks highly of is likely to be drafted.

                        Further, to the extent that a player is a fit only in certain systems, something you specifically referenced regarding Woods, that reduces both the overall value of the player and the likelihood that the player will be drafted earlier by teams for which he is not a fit.

                        Frankly, the suggestion that there is nothing wrong with taking players early is absurd.

                        A GM should not be so wed to a particular player that he sacrifices more than a round of draft value to take the player early, especially when the GM has a chance to get extra value when there is a BPA value gap that can be easily exploited with even just a tiny amount of aggressiveness when what actually happened proved that the small trade up was available to be made. We do not have to speculate about it. The very pick in question that we could have acquired got traded and traded for less than what we would have offered with a similar package of draft picks.

                        The whole problem is that we did not "swing for the fences" when we had the chance to do so. When we had the chance to get the #44 overall ranked player (Travis Jones) at a PON in the middle of the third round by making a simple trade when everyone and their dog knew that BAL, a team that actually knows how to draft players outside of the first round, would take the player at #76, trading up to #75, should have been an easy, easy choice.

                        What a team should not do is to fail to get the pick that was proven to be available and then compound that error by selecting the #137 overall ranked player with the #79 draft pick, missing both the golden opportunity of getting great value and getting terrible value all at the same time. And then, of course, we reinforced the fact that we had the DL positional need by taking a much lesser caliber DL player in Ogbonnia.

                        We did not maximize our player talent with our draft picks. Our draft strategy in the third round was simply and quite obviously poor.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by chaincrusher View Post

                          Under your analysis, there would have been nothing wrong with us taking Woods at #17 overall. That is ridiculous. What happened was the same problem as that, just to a lesser degree.

                          The goal of the draft is to get the best players possible and a team that reaches does not do that--period.

                          While being nowhere near infallible, of course the presence of a consensus regarding a player means something. It is foolish of a GM to think that he and only he has a monopoly on the correct analysis of a player when that analysis is at odds with the gigantic consensus rating of a player.

                          And even when the GM strongly believes in a player, he should consider what the consensus means in terms of where the player he thinks highly of is likely to be drafted.

                          Further, to the extent that a player is a fit only in certain systems, something you specifically referenced regarding Woods, that reduces both the overall value of the player and the likelihood that the player will be drafted earlier by teams for which he is not a fit.

                          Frankly, the suggestion that there is nothing wrong with taking players early is absurd.

                          A GM should not be so wed to a particular player that he sacrifices more than a round of draft value to take the player early, especially when the GM has a chance to get extra value when there is a BPA value gap that can be easily exploited with even just a tiny amount of aggressiveness when what actually happened proved that the small trade up was available to be made. We do not have to speculate about it. The very pick in question that we could have acquired got traded and traded for less than what we would have offered with a similar package of draft picks.

                          The whole problem is that we did not "swing for the fences" when we had the chance to do so. When we had the chance to get the #44 overall ranked player (Travis Jones) at a PON in the middle of the third round by making a simple trade when everyone and their dog knew that BAL, a team that actually knows how to draft players outside of the first round, would take the player at #76, trading up to #75, should have been an easy, easy choice.

                          What a team should not do is to fail to get the pick that was proven to be available and then compound that error by selecting the #137 overall ranked player with the #79 draft pick, missing both the golden opportunity of getting great value and getting terrible value all at the same time. And then, of course, we reinforced the fact that we had the DL positional need by taking a much lesser caliber DL player in Ogbonnia.

                          We did not maximize our player talent with our draft picks. Our draft strategy in the third round was simply and quite obviously poor.
                          Maybe you should submit your resume’?

                          Comment

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