For You Gamblers

[Bolt-O]

Aces probably would back this up, but Vegas sets up a line to make money on the poor saps who want to gamble on this, and even out the sides so they don't lose their shirts on a lopsided upset. What the 7.5 win line is what they believe or are seeing what makes them money, not what they actually believe how many games the team will win. A lot of betters believe that the Donkey will win 11 or 12 games, maybe they will, and maybe they will win the Super Bowl...I'm hoping that the general betting public is wrong. None of my bucks going into that pool, though... I'd rather be entertained by putting in a dollar into the lotto, even with the supremely bad odds.

[Beerman]

Vegas also has the Broncos @ 11.5 and with the best odds to win the Super Bowl

And? That seems pretty accurate.

[sandiego17]

Vegas also has the Broncos @ 11.5 and with the best odds to win the Super Bowl

Exactly. Vegas is the unbiased expert.

[sandiego17]

EXACTLY! Line sits at 7.5 wins. Vegas is by far the more accurate indicator of what a team is going to do and so far they consider us just about equal to last season...

I don't know if Vegas is an accurate indicator of how a team will do, but they are by far the most unbiased. Vegas doesn't suffer from groupthink.

[BoltBalls]

I believe Vegas sets their lines initially by team analysis, then will adjust according to the number of bets on the over/under or on the win odds. So in a way it does change according to "groupthink", so if there were a ton of people betting on the Broncos to win the SB, they will lower the payout odds for any future bets. Same goes for if there were a lot of people betting the under on 7.5 wins for the Chargers, then they will begin to lower that number to 7 wins, 6.5, etc.

[sandiego17]

I believe Vegas sets their lines initially by team analysis, then will adjust according to the number of bets on the over/under or on the win odds. So in a way it does change according to "groupthink", so if there were a ton of people betting on the Broncos to win the SB, they will lower the payout odds for any future bets. Same goes for if there were a lot of people betting the under on 7.5 wins for the Chargers, then they will begin to lower that number to 7 wins, 6.5, etc.

Its exactly how Vegas works when the odds, over/unders, etc. are set and the betting happens, its not what I consider groupthink. The initial lines are based on, IMO, the most objective analysis. NFL analyst suffer from groupthink from the get go. No harm to your career if everyone is wrong.

[BoltBalls]

Its exactly how Vegas works when the odds, over/unders, etc. are set and the betting happens, its not what I consider groupthink. The initial lines are based on, IMO, the most objective analysis. NFL analyst suffer from groupthink from the get go. No harm to your career if everyone is wrong.

Right, I agree that the initial lines are the most objective analysis. I just meant that once they are adjusted from people betting, it changes according to the popular vote which is in a way "groupthink" mentality. However the casinos just want to win more money and don't care about anything else.

[sandiego17]

However the casinos just want to win more money and don't care about anything else.

Exactly, agree 100%. Other factors are meaningless. Not so with NFL analysts.

[Yubaking]

Vegas has. The only unbiased expert.

This is just wrong. Vegas sets odds based upon its perceptions of betting in an effort to get the money spread evenly. It does not necessarily mean that that is what oddsmakers themselves believe.

Again, in my post I was speaking about actual analysts, not oddsmakers. I have yet to see an analyst that has us ranked above #23 in any preseason ranking. It would be something different if one or two analysts had us as not being a good team, but others had us as a better team, but here they all believe that we are not good. Every once in a while they are completely wrong, but usually a solid consensus such as what I am referring to has it right.

We will see soon enough.

[sandiego17]

This is just wrong. Vegas sets odds based upon its perceptions of betting in an effort to get the money spread evenly. It does not necessarily mean that that is what oddsmakers themselves believe.

Again, in my post I was speaking about actual analysts, not oddsmakers. I have yet to see an analyst that has us ranked above #23 in any preseason ranking. It would be something different if one or two analysts had us as not being a good team, but others had us as a better team, but here they all believe that we are not good. Every once in a while they are completely wrong, but usually a solid consensus such as what I am referring to has it right.

We will see soon enough.

Disagree, public perception is one of many factors, but Vegas is still much more unbiased than the analysts you refer to. You think Vegas set the line at 7.5 for the Chargers based on public perception that the team is better than it really is?

Vegas is an actual analyst. Much more of an analyst than any of the actual analysts you mention.

[Yubaking]

Disagree, public perception is one of many factors, but Vegas is still much more unbiased than the analysts you refer to. You think Vegas set the line at 7.5 for the Chargers based on public perception that the team is better than it really is?

Vegas is an actual analyst. Much more of an analyst than any of the actual analysts you mention.

I am not saying that there is no analysis, but betting behavior is an unrelated component that gets factored into the equation. People have had the perception that the Chargers have been a great team for years, that Turner was a horrible coach and now he's gone, that the new GM is some whiz kid (which I think is true--he has peed on himself plenty so far). I think these ideas make the Chargers a more attractive bet than what the strength of the team really is and Vegas oddsmakers know this because their primary job is to get the money spread evenly, not accurately predict team records.

[Yubaking]

Disagree, public perception is one of many factors, but Vegas is still much more unbiased than the analysts you refer to. You think Vegas set the line at 7.5 for the Chargers based on public perception that the team is better than it really is?

Vegas is an actual analyst. Much more of an analyst than any of the actual analysts you mention.

Oh, the notion that all of the analysts are biased against the Chargers is absurd. Some may be, but not all of them and they all have us a bottom 10 team, which is what I think we are right now.