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Originally posted by Boltnut
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Defense is important - agree. We need a great DT
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11+23 is a good deal that fits Charger's 2024 need - agree
Defense is important - agree. We need a great DT
“Less is more? NO NO NO - MORE is MORE!” -
you think he thinks what he thought and they don't think what you think, and blah blah to the fucking blah, holy shit, bring on the fucking draft already, I mean seriously what the fuck are we doing here with this crazy ass shit, I regret even trying to make sense out of this, good god!Originally posted by SuperChargedRodney37 View Post
Good morning, Boltnut,
See this is why I love this exercise. I opened this for something to think about that these teams must address in discussions. This is not conjecture at all when you think about this from both teams perspective standpoints.
You are simply looking at this from only what YOU would prefer the Chargers to do. You will notice I didn't once speak in any absolutes, I simply laid out a pattern of logical discussion that would have to be true in order for this trade to happen.
I don't speak for "Everybody" nor does "Everybody" speak for me.
Now I will address each of your points because again I love this type of discussion and thank you for this engagement.
The #11 and #23 picks are 310 points higher than the #5 pick.
Next year's 2nd rounder is worth... get this... around 310 points (Houston's #59 pick).
Don't be surprised if Hortiz is real happy to get this deal... with or without any additional picks.
I have actually mentioned this in multiple threads already. The Vikings would be overpaying the Chargers by the equivalent of a 2nd round pick. Correct.
**People are making this assumption for whatever reason that the Vikings actually engaged Houston first for that trade. It was actually the other way around and the reasoning for Houston is quite simple if you know the background on where Nick Caserio came from**
The second part of this is your opinion on what you think Joe Hortiz thinks. "Which is fine by the way"
However, I would ask that you just consider these facts that have been spoken by either Joe or Jim.- Joe says BPA @ #5. (Addressed later in board options)
- Jim says if the first 4 QB's are taken the "Value" of pick #5 becomes the "Value" of pick #1, why is that? Hint: It's not Joe Alt. (I'll address their board options further down)
1) I think it's fair to say that the Vikings want a QB. Are they desperate enough to give up a 2025 1st round pick...? No. Otherwise, the Arizona deal would be done by now.
3) As I've said before... if the Vikings valued Maye/McCarthy enough... the deal would be done with AZ already.
The first thing we 100% agree on. They do want a QB.
The second part I again agree with you 100%.
By that's why I presented the word "Desperate".
You just made my point of the exercise at point #1. If Point #1 (Desperation) isn't true, then how do you convince yourself that they are willing to "overspend" to the equivalent on a 2nd round pick to get pick #5.
2) Everybody thinks Maye and McCarthy are better than Nix and Penix. There is no controversy here.
This is where trouble starts and why I don't speak in absolutes like this. You used the term "Everybody" and I'll ask you, what team drafts a player based on "everybody's think tank opinion"? Answer is Nobody. Who cares what everybody thinks. This is strictly about what the Vikings think. What value does the Vikings place on these QB's. What does their QB board look like.
Also, what value does the Chargers place on pick #5, the player they can potentially draft and their Big board.
4) Everybody has MHJ above Nabers/Odunze. The Cardinals. The Chargers. The Giants... everyone.
Again, we must be careful with these absolutes. This is not group think drafting in the NFL. It is a simple assumption that everybody has MHJ above the rest. I'll admit a logical one, but an assumption none the less.
The other logical assumption to be made is that Harrison will be drafted before pick #5.
Now here's where the rub happens with respect to the Chargers and their board. The question is what value the Chargers have placed on Nabers/Odunze with respect to their board?
I'm of the "Opinion" that their board is #1 MHJ followed closely by some combination of Nabers/Odunze at #2/3. I came to this conclusion based on a number of evidential factors, which includes from my perspective, "Positional Value" and the amount of cost-control and the ROI (Return On Investment) they would accumulate by making that pick.
Therefore, the pick is worth more to them enough to demand a 2025 1st even if MHJ is not there. (IMHO)
5) Everything I know about Hortiz/Harbaugh/Roman leads me to believe that Joe Alt is probably sandwiched in between Nabers/Odunze. He might even be valued higher. You won't believe it. The sports writers won't believe it... but Harbaugh & Boys believe it. They made sure to meet with Joe Alt during the combine... and it wasn't because they thought he'd be there @#11.
This is your "opinion" but it's great and there is nothing wrong with it. It makes for great discussion on the subject. You maybe %100 correct. You are right that I don't believe it but it's not because I don't see Alt as a Blue-Chip Prospect. (Although, I have talked to scouts and if it was 10 scouts they had 6 different opinions on who their Top tackle is? So, there is no consensus among the ranks here) But that's another discussion.)
My reasoning for not believe Alt is in their Top 3 on the board is simply this and I haven't heard anyone who is for drafting Alt @5 discuss this very real and true situation. Until, that discussion follows the draft Alt talk, I just can't take it seriously.
Here it is: Do the Charger believe that the value of Alt is so much at #5 that they are willing to investment $41 million dollars to find out whether he can, A) Transition to RT? B) Fit the Scheme and the RT responsibilities? C) Beat out Pipkins day One? Is he that valuable to them? IMHO the answer is NO. Should anybody answer "yes or absolutely" see below.
If you say "yes or absolutely". then let's dive into this question. What now, do you do with your ALL-Pro, Captain, Pillar, LT Rashawn Slater? The drafting of Alt starts a financial avalanche of decisions for this team. Did you know that Slater is scheduled to make less money this season than starting RT Trey Pipkins? So, suffice to say that drafting Alt @5 could have great financial consequences.
I believe the team will extend Slater this off-season as the pillar to the line. If they do this and draft Alt they will have 30% of their Cap tied up in the Tackle position.
For comparison, Bosa and Mack take up 20% and the team thought that was too much for roster building.
That's why I don't buy the Alt talk or any Lineman in Round #1. Alt @ 5 means a Slater holdout is coming and more than likely a Slater replacement.
7) Your idea of a premium player and our coach's idea of a premium player are worlds apart. Coach Bischoff called the offense OL-Centric.
I'm not speaking on a Premium "Players" Just to be clear. I'm talking "Premium Positions in the League. Which the league has clearly defined by the NFL Salaries and the Money. The money says (QB/ LT/ CB1/ WR1/ Edge/) Are premium positions. You could argue Safety now instead of LB/RB.
Our "Coaches" idea of Premium positions is the exact same as the league says. Hortiz/Harbaugh have already been in perfect alignment with this line of thinking. ie. Gus Edwards, the TE's, the Salary restructures, etc.
This team is going to be OL-Centric in its importance and I don't argue that point. However, how the team accomplishes this is where I see disconnect on this forum. You can be Oline Centric and simply build more depth by adding versatile pieces you can develop into future starting material, so that when an injury should take place there is less drop off in terms of talent. It becomes a more cohesive unit as a whole.
It's harder to accomplish this if Two-Starters are taking 30% of the cap. You accomplish more by spreading out the budget with more capable players but not overspending on the less Premium positions across the line.
For example: If Pipkins was so bad to them, they could have brought in RT La'el Collins who just sign a 1 year $1,500,000 contract with Buffalo to compete at RT with Pipkins.
Does it make sense to spend $37 million for slot #5 or $21 million for slot #11 on a RT? They might think so but IMHO I say no sir.
Sorry for the long posts folks. I just enjoy talking about ALL the aspects of Football.
Thanks to all who engage in the conversation and remember that no matter what, this is a great time to be a Charger Fan
BOLT UP EVRYONE!!!
"The author assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this post. The information contained in this post is provided on an "as is" basis with no guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness..."Comment
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I wont melt down. I know what they want to do. Missing on Bowers would suck but i wont be surprised if they go OL. Alt at 5 is kinda a nose wrinkle with whats still on the board but he will contribute. IF we get 11 & 23 Fuaga makes more sense though id still pick BowersOriginally posted by Lone Bolt View Post
I know, right? I can hardly wait for the meltdown...
Maybe we ass rape the Raiders for going to 13 and get their 2nd, 3rd and next years 1st. Sims wont let me do it but we arent just getting a 2nd and 3rd from them.Comment
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A 2025 2nd is worth more like a 3rd round pick -- that said, I think getting 11 and 23 for the 5 pick is solid valueOriginally posted by Boltnut View PostComment
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we ass rape the raiders is pretty much all I got outta this, LOLOriginally posted by Boltjolt View Post
I wont melt down. I know what they want to do. Missing on Bowers would suck but i wont be surprised if they go OL. Alt at 5 is kinda a nose wrinkle with whats still on the board but he will contribute. IF we get 11 & 23 Fuaga makes more sense though id still pick Bowers
Maybe we ass rape the Raiders for going to 13 and get their 2nd, 3rd and next years 1st. Sims wont let me do it but we arent just getting a 2nd and 3rd from them."The author assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this post. The information contained in this post is provided on an "as is" basis with no guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness..."Comment
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Chicago only has a 3rd and 4th this year after 1 and 9. Not enough which means we will get a 2025 pick.....and then they are done in the draft lol. Id love to get a 2nd and 3rd by trading down but we'll see.Originally posted by Jack Burton View PostComment
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I don't think the Vikings make a pre-draft deal until they know which QB is going to be available. So nothing is off the table at this timeOriginally posted by dmac_bolt View Post
11+23 is a good deal that fits Charger's 2024 need - agree
Defense is important - agree. We need a great DT
including a trade with Arizona on draft day. In fact the Vikings are most likely still evaluating the various QBs that maybe available @4, possibly
even moving up to #3.
I don't think you can ass-u-me the Chargers will take players that they interview. They also interviewed Nabers. Do they think he will
be there @11?
Nobody really knows what the Chargers will do, and that probably includes the Chargers at this time. But I'm sure they have several plans
depending how things work out, including trading partners on draft day. .
Note that almost all mocks have the Chargers taking an offensive player, especially @5. In fact very little info on the Chargers part about
the plans on D, which has been a big weakness statistically compared to the offense. So it's going to be very interesting to see what the
Chargers do especially if they trade down.Comment
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It might be enough if they send a player in the exchange, who do they have on their roster that the Chargers would make that deal for? I'll be honest not that familiar with he Bears roster I just know that they haven't been very good...The Bears have some recent history of adding players to big deals, they did it last year with Carolina for the #1 pick...would the #9 and that same WR be worth it for us to make that deal? they could reset the clock with a new WR to pair up with williams and we get two offensive weapons out of it in Bowers and DJ Moore? Moore is signed through 2025 and they did just trade for KA so I don't see them needing 3 number one WRs...Originally posted by Boltjolt View Post"The author assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this post. The information contained in this post is provided on an "as is" basis with no guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness..."Comment
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not my mocks, my mocks have the chargers drafting Jared Verse at #5, IOL at #37, CB at #69, LB at #105, TE at #110, DT at #140, RB at #181, OT at #225, and S at #253...so 5 out of 8 picks are going defense according to my projections...I'm not factoring in trades because all bets are off if that shit happens...Originally posted by charger1_sj View Post"The author assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this post. The information contained in this post is provided on an "as is" basis with no guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness..."Comment
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Good points...dont agre with all but good points. Nutty does tend to strong arm his opinions and he may or may not be right. We all may or may not be right. There are people on Twitter saying if we dont pick a WR at 5 we are stupid, its a bad pick already, etc....imo those fans dont know our scheme and probably dont know history about our coaches.Originally posted by SuperChargedRodney37 View Post
Good morning, Boltnut,
See this is why I love this exercise. I opened this for something to think about that these teams must address in discussions. This is not conjecture at all when you think about this from both teams perspective standpoints.
You are simply looking at this from only what YOU would prefer the Chargers to do. You will notice I didn't once speak in any absolutes, I simply laid out a pattern of logical discussion that would have to be true in order for this trade to happen.
I don't speak for "Everybody" nor does "Everybody" speak for me.
Now I will address each of your points because again I love this type of discussion and thank you for this engagement.
The #11 and #23 picks are 310 points higher than the #5 pick.
Next year's 2nd rounder is worth... get this... around 310 points (Houston's #59 pick).
Don't be surprised if Hortiz is real happy to get this deal... with or without any additional picks.
I have actually mentioned this in multiple threads already. The Vikings would be overpaying the Chargers by the equivalent of a 2nd round pick. Correct.
**People are making this assumption for whatever reason that the Vikings actually engaged Houston first for that trade. It was actually the other way around and the reasoning for Houston is quite simple if you know the background on where Nick Caserio came from**
The second part of this is your opinion on what you think Joe Hortiz thinks. "Which is fine by the way"
However, I would ask that you just consider these facts that have been spoken by either Joe or Jim.- Joe says BPA @ #5. (Addressed later in board options)
- Jim says if the first 4 QB's are taken the "Value" of pick #5 becomes the "Value" of pick #1, why is that? Hint: It's not Joe Alt. (I'll address their board options further down)
1) I think it's fair to say that the Vikings want a QB. Are they desperate enough to give up a 2025 1st round pick...? No. Otherwise, the Arizona deal would be done by now.
3) As I've said before... if the Vikings valued Maye/McCarthy enough... the deal would be done with AZ already.
The first thing we 100% agree on. They do want a QB.
The second part I again agree with you 100%.
By that's why I presented the word "Desperate".
You just made my point of the exercise at point #1. If Point #1 (Desperation) isn't true, then how do you convince yourself that they are willing to "overspend" to the equivalent on a 2nd round pick to get pick #5.
2) Everybody thinks Maye and McCarthy are better than Nix and Penix. There is no controversy here.
This is where trouble starts and why I don't speak in absolutes like this. You used the term "Everybody" and I'll ask you, what team drafts a player based on "everybody's think tank opinion"? Answer is Nobody. Who cares what everybody thinks. This is strictly about what the Vikings think. What value does the Vikings place on these QB's. What does their QB board look like.
Also, what value does the Chargers place on pick #5, the player they can potentially draft and their Big board.
4) Everybody has MHJ above Nabers/Odunze. The Cardinals. The Chargers. The Giants... everyone.
Again, we must be careful with these absolutes. This is not group think drafting in the NFL. It is a simple assumption that everybody has MHJ above the rest. I'll admit a logical one, but an assumption none the less.
The other logical assumption to be made is that Harrison will be drafted before pick #5.
Now here's where the rub happens with respect to the Chargers and their board. The question is what value the Chargers have placed on Nabers/Odunze with respect to their board?
I'm of the "Opinion" that their board is #1 MHJ followed closely by some combination of Nabers/Odunze at #2/3. I came to this conclusion based on a number of evidential factors, which includes from my perspective, "Positional Value" and the amount of cost-control and the ROI (Return On Investment) they would accumulate by making that pick.
Therefore, the pick is worth more to them enough to demand a 2025 1st even if MHJ is not there. (IMHO)
5) Everything I know about Hortiz/Harbaugh/Roman leads me to believe that Joe Alt is probably sandwiched in between Nabers/Odunze. He might even be valued higher. You won't believe it. The sports writers won't believe it... but Harbaugh & Boys believe it. They made sure to meet with Joe Alt during the combine... and it wasn't because they thought he'd be there @#11.
This is your "opinion" but it's great and there is nothing wrong with it. It makes for great discussion on the subject. You maybe %100 correct. You are right that I don't believe it but it's not because I don't see Alt as a Blue-Chip Prospect. (Although, I have talked to scouts and if it was 10 scouts they had 6 different opinions on who their Top tackle is? So, there is no consensus among the ranks here) But that's another discussion.)
My reasoning for not believe Alt is in their Top 3 on the board is simply this and I haven't heard anyone who is for drafting Alt @5 discuss this very real and true situation. Until, that discussion follows the draft Alt talk, I just can't take it seriously.
Here it is: Do the Charger believe that the value of Alt is so much at #5 that they are willing to investment $41 million dollars to find out whether he can, A) Transition to RT? B) Fit the Scheme and the RT responsibilities? C) Beat out Pipkins day One? Is he that valuable to them? IMHO the answer is NO. Should anybody answer "yes or absolutely" see below.
If you say "yes or absolutely". then let's dive into this question. What now, do you do with your ALL-Pro, Captain, Pillar, LT Rashawn Slater? The drafting of Alt starts a financial avalanche of decisions for this team. Did you know that Slater is scheduled to make less money this season than starting RT Trey Pipkins? So, suffice to say that drafting Alt @5 could have great financial consequences.
I believe the team will extend Slater this off-season as the pillar to the line. If they do this and draft Alt they will have 30% of their Cap tied up in the Tackle position.
For comparison, Bosa and Mack take up 20% and the team thought that was too much for roster building.
That's why I don't buy the Alt talk or any Lineman in Round #1. Alt @ 5 means a Slater holdout is coming and more than likely a Slater replacement.
7) Your idea of a premium player and our coach's idea of a premium player are worlds apart. Coach Bischoff called the offense OL-Centric.
I'm not speaking on a Premium "Players" Just to be clear. I'm talking "Premium Positions in the League. Which the league has clearly defined by the NFL Salaries and the Money. The money says (QB/ LT/ CB1/ WR1/ Edge/) Are premium positions. You could argue Safety now instead of LB/RB.
Our "Coaches" idea of Premium positions is the exact same as the league says. Hortiz/Harbaugh have already been in perfect alignment with this line of thinking. ie. Gus Edwards, the TE's, the Salary restructures, etc.
This team is going to be OL-Centric in its importance and I don't argue that point. However, how the team accomplishes this is where I see disconnect on this forum. You can be Oline Centric and simply build more depth by adding versatile pieces you can develop into future starting material, so that when an injury should take place there is less drop off in terms of talent. It becomes a more cohesive unit as a whole.
It's harder to accomplish this if Two-Starters are taking 30% of the cap. You accomplish more by spreading out the budget with more capable players but not overspending on the less Premium positions across the line.
For example: If Pipkins was so bad to them, they could have brought in RT La'el Collins who just sign a 1 year $1,500,000 contract with Buffalo to compete at RT with Pipkins.
Does it make sense to spend $37 million for slot #5 or $21 million for slot #11 on a RT? They might think so but IMHO I say no sir.
Sorry for the long posts folks. I just enjoy talking about ALL the aspects of Football.
Thanks to all who engage in the conversation and remember that no matter what, this is a great time to be a Charger Fan
BOLT UP EVRYONE!!!
However...first......the #5 pick contract will be 32.38 million, not 41. Ive posted the rookie slot pool a handful of times.
Next i do think you over think the draft slot money. Especially for QBs. The league dont really give a shit what it costs to get a QB and why they are over drafted EVERY year and why mediocre QBs like Murray got over fucking paid. Watson got a surely ridiculous contract and Russell Wilson got a ridiculous over paid contract. You think they care about drafting 5th or 10th for a player they love even if it isnt a QB? Sure they may try to trade down for a safety and OG but it doesnt always happen either.
Signing free agents is another thing altogether but in the draft if there is a player they love, i dont think they care if he is 5, 8 or 10 and take a chance on losing out,....they will draft them if thats who they love. They got the draft rookie pool in place for a reason so they cant complain about it....and i dont think they are. No other sport can a team just cut a guy and not have to pay them the duration of that contract.
Dont feel sorry for these billionaires. They can afford it. They ask the public to pay for half or more of their new stadiums then reward you with a $100 tab to park your car to go see them play. Charge you thousands to have a license for the right to get season tickets or seats or whatever its for.
And dont forget...we had 2 WRs making 20 mil...Jax just paid 30m mil per year to resign their edge rusher. They do it to themselves. And No, dont consider safety a premium position. A few have got paid but it isnt near league wide.Comment
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Yes! Football teams, football people draft the players they want when they think they have the best/last chance to take them. Sometimes it is "too early" and sometimes they get a player who "falls" according to people who don't work in the NFL. I am pretty sure they really don't care and they don't care if they get a bad grade from Mel Kiper, Todd McShay or one of us bulletin board guys.Originally posted by Boltjolt View PostLike, how am I a traitor? Your team are traitors.Comment
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Apparently some of these guys do care, remember the Bill Tobin deal? you'd think that these guys wouldn't listen to the noise but the draft is such a crapshoot and some of these professionals often make the fans look smart because they over analyze the information that they have, it can almost become a deterrent to have too much info on guys, then we are all watching the games and going like, yeah, that fucker would've sucked on our team but he's helping those assholes win super bowls and stuff like that, the draft is crazy and I think that's what makes it so much fun, even a dickhead like TT got some picks right now and again...Originally posted by Heatmiser View Post"The author assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this post. The information contained in this post is provided on an "as is" basis with no guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness..."Comment
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