Chargers at Chiefs (-4.5) Pre Game Discussion (Wk 14)

[OG619FrightninLightnin]

Will sunday be the day the refs start calling the chiefs for always lining up in illegal formation and false starting? unlikely!

[Boltx]

"Chiefs expect all officials to be ready by gametime"

Post of the year.

[Velo]

How is this possible? How?

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And don't forget all the guys on our IR...


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Here's the Chefs on IR:

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The Chargers' injury report is not that bad really. Conk is practicing, albeit limited, but he is practicing. Chances are he will be able to play Sunday night. The only player not practicing is Henley.

I wouldn't read a lot into the fact the Chiefs' injury report is shorter than the Chargers'. Teams report injuries differently, even though the reporting is supposed to be uniform and teams can be find for not reporting injuries. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs are not fully forthcoming.

I'm glad Jawaan Taylor is practicing for the Chiefs. We need him to commit some illegal alignment, false start and holding penalties, he'll come through if he plays.

[jamrock]

"Chiefs expect all officials to be ready by gametime"

Quality double dip of posts OG619FrightninLightnin

[jubei]

I'm glad Jawaan Taylor is practicing for the Chiefs. We need him to commit some illegal alignment, false start and holding penalties, he'll come through if he plays.

Not if the refs have anything to say about those penalties. He was called ONCE ALL game for that illegal formation that he'd been doing all game long.

[OG619FrightninLightnin]

I must say that I'm tempering my expectations this week. I have some real personal hatred for the Chefs that I need to work through and it would be so sweet to get a W but not sure we are ready.

[21&500]

I must say that I'm tempering my expectations this week. I have some real personal hatred for the Chefs that I need to work through and it would be so sweet to get a W but not sure we are ready.

You, me and a small gang of us hardcores. You're safe here.
If we win, celebrate with some fish tacos
if we lose, embrace defeat with dignity and a rack of BBq ribs.
Done.

[Xenos]

The Chiefs are probably going to play more man coverage and double up on Ladd until our other pass catchers can prove they can beat man more consistently.

Through his first four NFL seasons, Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert excelled against man coverage.

From 2020 to ’23, Herbert ranked eighth among 41 qualified quarterbacks in expected points added per dropback when facing man coverage, according to TruMedia. He had two matchup advantages in receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams — when they were healthy, of course — and Herbert leaned into that duo against man looks. And because of Herbert’s success in those situations, opposing defenses did not play a lot of man against him. He saw man coverage on 28.4 percent of offensive plays, the 15th-highest rate among those qualified QBs.

Allen and Williams are gone this season. And while second-round pick Ladd McConkey has emerged as a star in his rookie year, Herbert has been far less effective against man coverage. He enters Week 14 ranked 23rd in EPA per dropback against man coverage among 34 qualified quarterbacks, according to TruMedia. Herbert is averaging -0.06 EPA per dropback against man. He has never finished a season below 0.11 EPA per dropback against man. Through 13 weeks, Herbert trails quarterbacks like Bryce Young, Drake Maye and Daniel Jones in EPA per dropback against man.

What makes these metrics even more alarming is that opposing defenses are starting to catch on. Over the past two games, Herbert has seen the highest man coverage rate in the league among starting quarterbacks at 45.5 percent, according to TruMedia. In Week 12, the Baltimore Ravensplayed man coverage on 54.5 percent of Herbert’s plays, the highest rate of man Herbert has seen in a game in his career. The Ravens will play man, though. They entered that game with a 12th-highest man rate in the league. It was really the Chargers’ Week 13 win over the Atlanta Falcons that turned this from a potential outlier into a solidified trend.

The Falcons entered Sunday’s game playing man on just 12.5 percent of their defensive plays, the lowest rate in the league through 12 weeks. They played man on 33.3 percent of plays against Herbert, a huge deviation. The Falcons were coming off a bye, and perhaps this was an adjustment they will maintain over the remainder of the season. But the likelier answer is that opposing defenses are coming to a realization: The best way to defend the Chargers passing game right now is more man coverage.

The turning point seemed to happen in the second half against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 11. In the first two quarters, the Bengals did not play a single snap of man coverage against Herbert. They had nine such plays in the second half.

“We’ve gotten a lot of man coverage,” Herbert said this week. “It’s definitely something that we need to address and we need to be able to beat.”

So what exactly is happening here?

Herbert has not all of a sudden stopped being good against man coverage.

Right now, he just does not have pass catchers who can consistently win against man coverage. His receivers have changed. That is the difference between his first four years in the league and this season. And that is what the tape shows.

McConkey is great against man coverage. He is already an elite route-runner. But he is the only player on this roster capable of winning against man coverage down to down. When McConkey does not win, Herbert typically does not have anywhere to go with the ball. And those situations often end in incompletions or sacks.


When Herbert targets McConkey against man coverage, he is averaging 1.04 EPA per dropback, according to TruMedia. Among players with at least 50 targets, only two have a higher EPA per target against man coverage: the Miami Dolphins’ Jaylen Waddle and the Detroit Lions’ Jameson Williams.

When Herbert targets any other player on the roster against man coverage, his EPA per dropback is -0.34. That would rank 81st among 88 players with at least 50 targets.

McConkey was rolling in the first half against the Falcons. He had eight catches on nine targets for 105 yards. Four of those catches came against man coverage. Herbert attempted seven passes against man coverage in the first half. He completed five of them. The only completion against man coverage that did not go to McConkey went to tight end Tucker Fisk on a schemed-up play action to the right flat.

This is not just a receiver problem. The Chargers are missing a legitimate receiving tight end. Dissly is having a career season. But among those 88 players with at least 50 targets, Dissly ranks 88th in EPA per target against man coverage, according to TruMedia. The Chargers’ best running back, J.K. Dobbins, is on injured reserve with a knee injury.


“We got the guys for it,” Herbert said.

The Chargers (8-4) face the Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) in a massive game Sunday night in Arrowhead.

The Chiefs play man coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the league, according to TruMedia. Herbert saw man coverage on 34.4 percent of his plays against the Chiefs when these teams last met in Week 4.

Given the recent trend and how the Chiefs like to play under coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, Herbert will likely see a heavy dose of man in this game.

Someone other than McConkey has to step up, or the Chargers’ passing game problems will not go away.

[sonorajim]

The Chiefs are probably going to play more man coverage and double up on Ladd until our other pass catchers can prove they can beat man more consistently.

Amazing concept that Harbaugh and Roman have no idea about man D vs our WRs. In fact they probably know quite a bit more than the writer.

How will they use it to our advantage? TBD.

[charger1_sj]

The Chiefs are probably going to play more man coverage and double up on Ladd until our other pass catchers can prove they can beat man more consistently.

Not only will he see man coverage, but also lots of blitzing on certain downs, as well. Too bad we're missing Dobkins, could have been a huge game for him.

[sonorajim]

Not only will he see man coverage, but also lots of blitzing on certain downs, as well. Too bad we're missing Dobkins, could have been a huge game for him.

Gus and Vidal looked good vs ATL until we quit running them.

[Lefty2SLO]

LAC 31 - KC 17

Sorry Jim - I see no world where we put up 31 points on a very good KC defense (in KC) . . . . . . . . doesn't mean we can't win, but if we do it'll be more like 21-16 (ish) at best. With a heavily dinged up McConkey our offense will have a difficult time with KC's man to man coverage - Herbert better be prepared to run when he has the opportunity . . . . . . . . . .