Chargers at Patriots Game Day Thread (Week 17) | Post Game Discussion

[northerner]

If Eli gets in it will be on the strength of two plays in two separate super bowls, the helmet catch play and the the throw to Manningham on the sidelines. Brady killer

i think the helmet catch was a bit lucky (he basically chucked it up), but the Manningham play was a great throw. in both super bowls, the defense held down the pats until Eli could get them across the finish line. I am a little biased? maybe, but not much.

if there were games that could quality for the HOF - that super bowl win over the 18-0 would be a definite member.

[Boltjolt]

My point is those qbs basically only had 1 year under 9 ints (sans injured years/full seasons) so all HOF QBs are basically at the same stat as Rivers was, weird flex.

Brady had only 2 healthy seasons under 8 (7 & 4), 18 seasons of at least 8

Brees 1 healthy season of under 11 (8), 14 seasons of at least 11

Manning (Peyton) 0 seasons of under 9 healthy or injured, 17 seasons

Rivers 15 seasons of at least 9 (2 seasons on bench behind Brees)

Ben (drafted same year and #5 all time in passing yards to Rivers #6 all time but Ben started in 04 & 05) 15 healthy seasons of at least 9 ints.

The game changes every year. Even from 2004 the rules and the game is easier for offense.
I've seen people on X comparing Payton Manning first 72 games to Herberts and they are pretty identical asside from INTs thrown but Mannings stats are from 1998 on. Herbert from 2020.

Pretty drastic change in the game from 1998 to 2020.

I love Herbert as our QB. I really do but QB play is more than their stats and some don't seem to get that.

Dilfer, Hostetler, Brad Johnson, Doug Williams were on great teams and they were just adequate to not fuck it up. Doug Williams imo was not a good QB, but if they all played today, their stats would be much better.

[Xenos]

Fun fact: Rivers did not have one season as a starter with less than 9 INTs .

(duck!)

This would be Herbert’s first full season with less than 9 interceptions.

[dmac_bolt]

The game changes every year. Even from 2004 the rules and the game is easier for offense.
I've seen people on X comparing Payton Manning first 72 games to Herberts and they are pretty identical asside from INTs thrown but Mannings stats are from 1998 on. Herbert from 2020.

Pretty drastic change in the game from 1998 to 2020.

I love Herbert as our QB. I really do but QB play is more than their stats and some don't seem to get that.

Dilfer, Hostetler, Brad Johnson, Doug Williams were on great teams and they were just adequate to not fuck it up. Doug Williams imo was not a good QB, but if they all played today, their stats would be much better.

This post pretty clearly states that overall team end result does not confirm if the QB was great or not great, correct?

here’s another fun fact for everyone: Average passing yards per game in the NFL has decreased in since the 2010’s, not gone up. Intuitively that should make sense to everyone as the most significant pro-passing rules were implemented before that decade. Changes since that decade are much smaller

image.png

[Boltjolt]

This post pretty clearly states that overall team end result does not confirm if the QB was great or not great, correct?

here’s another fun fact for everyone: Average passing yards per game in the NFL has decreased in since the 2010’s, not gone up. Intuitively that should make sense to everyone as the most significant pro-passing rules were implemented before that decade. Changes since that decade are much smaller

image.png

That graph does not show that. Looks like it's going up since 2010..peaked and stayed the same til around 2022-2023 and went down a whole 2 yards per game. But it would make sense even if it's minimul.

But I have theories for that.

The guys throwing for 300-400 yards a game regularly that are high on the passing yards history list retired.

Ben, Brees, Rivers, even Eli, Payton, Brady and Ryan. Rodgers also missed 2023 and hasnt been good this year as he is done....though that chart doesn't show 2024.

There's some 5k seasons in there with that group. Herbert might be the last to do it in 2021 and from 2016 to 2021 it's been done 16 times.
Brees has 5 of them.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NFL_quarterbacks_with_5,000_passing_yards_ in_a_season



Running QBs have become more plentiful which takes a little of that passing yards away. Herbert, Goff, Burrow Mahomes can't replace all those guys and Herbert may not have many 4k seasons with Harbaugh.
Stafford hasn't had his usual 4k + season in 2021.

Now we have all these running QBs and guys like Richardson who can't throw, Hurts runs over 130 times a year, Lamar setting QB rushing records.

You get the idea. However....the rules still massively favor offense and QBs. PI is ridiculous, roughing the passer is ridiculous.amf many others.

[dmac_bolt]

That graph does not show that. Looks like it's going up since 2010..peaked and stayed the same til around 2022-2023 and went down a whole 2 yards per game.

That's because the guys throwing fit 300-400 yards a game that are high on the passing yards history list retired.

Ben, Brees, Rivers, even Eli, Payton, Brady and Ryan. Rodgers also missed 2023 and hasnt been good this year as he is done....thought that chart doesn't show 2024.

There's some 5k seasons in there with that group. Herbert might be the last to do it in 2021 and from 2016 to 2021 it's been done 16 times.
Brees has 5 of them.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NFL_quarterbacks_with_5,000_passing_yards_ in_a_season



Running QBs have become more plentiful which takes a little of that passing yards away. Herbert, Goff, Burrow Mahomes can't replace all those guys and Herbert may not have many 4k seasons with Harbaugh.
Stafford hasn't had his usual 4k + season in 2021.

Now we have all these running QBs and guys like Richardson who can't throw, Hurts runs over 130 times a year, Lamar setting QB rushing records.

You get the idea. However....the rules still massively favor offense and QBs. PI is ridiculous, roughing the passer is ridiculous.amf many others.

The graph does show that, you are misreading it. It doesnt show it going up “since 2010”, it shows it peaked in the decade 2010 - 2019 as a single value for the decade. I don’t have the yearly data. That was up from the 2000-2010 decade when those greats you list had their epic HOF seasons. A couple had some more seasons also in the 2010s but they were not notably better in the 2010s than they were in the 2000s. Rivers was his best in the 2000s.

The chart then shows it is down 12 yards the last 2 years, not 2. We don’t know what that means yet. I think it has to as much to do with more QBs that are capable runners than 2000’s but its just my guess./

I don’t know what to make of all this talk of “There will never be another like the greats of yore”. Every generation has this same mindset, it never holds true. Rules have not further changed all that much since Rivers and Brady played, the really huge changes occurred before those guys got their 4000+ yard seasons, between the era of Fouts Montana and Marion and the era of Rivers Brees Brady.

There were a half dozen or so HOF caliber QBs in that era, sure. There will be a half dozen or so in this era. And on and on we go … do you really think athletes fundamentally dropped in ability as a species since that fabled class? I don’t buy that theory. It defies basic evolution. No other athletes are becoming less capable, QBs will not be outliers.

What was the point of this “QBs of Yore” thesis, anyway? I lost track of the point. The assumption seems to be that total passing yards is a perfect absolute metric of QB excellence, yet all of the other arguments basically contradict it.

River-rafters don’t have to agree that Herbert is better than Rivers. They could be more circumspect and quit insisting they have facts that prove Rivers was better because they really don’t. Pick any negative Herbert fact and I can point to same or worse for Rivers.

- Herbie had a bad playoff game? Rivers had 5+ worse playoff games
- Herbie hasn’t led team to champions? Rivers never led his better teams to any championship either. (Rivers had better teams some years, we all agree on that)
- Herbie missed a receiver on “This” play? Rivers had a lower completion %, he missed plenty of receivers. They all have.
- Herbie threw an INT? Rivers had more than a 50% higher INT rate.

on and on … I get that some guys came of age in their Chargers Love during the Rivers era and have a special affection for it. Nothing wrong with that. I had greater “affection” for the Coryell era but I think the Rivers era was a better team for longer. I think Rivers was a great QB too, just not the greatest. I don’t point out Rivers stats to say he is bad, only to note he’s not this decisively superior QB to Herbert despite enormous advantages over the shit show Herbie has had to work in.

[Boltjolt]

The graph does show that, you are misreading it. It doesnt show it going up “since 2010”, it shows it peaked in the decade 2010 - 2019 as a single value for the decade. I don’t have the yearly data. That was up from the 2000-2010 decade when those greats you list had their epic HOF seasons. A couple had some more seasons also in the 2010s but they were not notably better in the 2010s than they were in the 2000s. Rivers was his best in the 2000s.

The chart then shows it is down 12 yards the last 2 years, not 2. We don’t know what that means yet. I think it has to as much to do with more QBs that are capable runners than 2000’s but its just my guess./

I don’t know what to make of all this talk of “There will never be another like the greats of yore”. Every generation has this same mindset, it never holds true. Rules have not further changed all that much since Rivers and Brady played, the really huge changes occurred before those guys got their 4000+ yard seasons, between the era of Fouts Montana and Marion and the era of Rivers Brees Brady.

There were a half dozen or so HOF caliber QBs in that era, sure. There will be a half dozen or so in this era. And on and on we go … do you really think athletes fundamentally dropped in ability as a species since that fabled class? I don’t buy that theory. It defies basic evolution. No other athletes are becoming less capable, QBs will not be outliers.

What was the point of this “QBs of Yore” thesis, anyway? I lost track of the point. The assumption seems to be that total passing yards is a perfect absolute metric of QB excellence, yet all of the other arguments basically contradict it.

River-rafters don’t have to agree that Herbert is better than Rivers. They could be more circumspect and quit insisting they have facts that prove Rivers was better because they really don’t. Pick any negative Herbert fact and I can point to same or worse for Rivers.

- Herbie had a bad playoff game? Rivers had 5+ worse playoff games
- Herbie hasn’t led team to champions? Rivers never led his better teams to any championship either. (Rivers had better teams some years, we all agree on that)
- Herbie missed a receiver on “This” play? Rivers had a lower completion %, he missed plenty of receivers. They all have.
- Herbie threw an INT? Rivers had more than a 50% higher INT rate.

on and on … I get that some guys came of age in their Chargers Love during the Rivers era and have a special affection for it. Nothing wrong with that. I had greater “affection” for the Coryell era but I think the Rivers era was a better team for longer. I think Rivers was a great QB too, just not the greatest. I don’t point out Rivers stats to say he is bad, only to note he’s not this decisively superior QB to Herbert despite enormous advantages over the shit show Herbie has had to work in.

It shows from the decade of 200-2009 at around 2005 it continues to go up through the decade to 2020 then peaks around 2015 and levels out to 2020-2021. Goes down with your arrow 2 yards a game after.
I realize it takes a lot to go down and I'll acknowledge but it's the running QBs bringing it down.....that's the point.

Never said a thing about there will never be any QBs of yore.

Offenses change. Right now it's running QBs till half the starting QBs are all hurt and having shorter careers. Never said many of what you are assuming.

I never once said Herbert was bad. Never said Rivers was the greatest.
I only said Rivers is better and knowing what the other defenses are doing, notices where they are lined up and setting protections and audibles. Knows everybody responsibilities and routes on the offense.

He just is better at that but part of that is the ever changing schemes our doomed franchise keeps giving him. Look forward to him settling in with this one for some years which will make a big difference. Rivers had the advantage of knowing the offense like the back of his hand. Herbert hasn't.

[dmac_bolt]

It shows from the decade of 200-2009 at around 2005 it continues to go up through the decade to 2020 then peaks around 2015 and levels out to 2020-2021. Goes down with your arrow 2 yards a game after.
I realize it takes a lot to go down and I'll acknowledge but it's the running QBs bringing it down.....that's the point.

Never said a thing about there will never be any QBs of yore.

Offenses change. Right now it's running QBs till half the starting QBs are all hurt and having shorter careers. Never said many of what you are assuming.

I never once said Herbert was bad. Never said Rivers was the greatest.
I only said Rivers is better and knowing what the other defenses are doing, notices where they are lined up and setting protections and audibles. Knows everybody responsibilities and does on the offense.

He just is better at that but part of that is the ever changing schemes our doomed franchise keeps giving him. Look forward to him settling in with this one for some years which will make a big difference. Rivers had the advantage of knowing the offense like the back of his hand. Herbert hasn't.

The chart is just showing a singe point for the decade average from 2000 - 2009 and again for 2010-2019. Dont look at the dot plotted at what visually looks like half way in the middle of that span and misread it to be 2005, it’s not. (2000-2009) is one data point for the entire decade. There is no “around 2005” on the chart.

Apologies if it wasnt you. Its been posted several times in the last few days.
I never said you said Herbert was bad
I contest your presumption that Rivers is better at running an offense, as I’m sure you have noticed. Lets for argument say that is true, that doesn’t necessarily make him a better QB overall. I am sure there are coaches that can read it even better than the QBs, for example. There are ex-pros that can read it better than any active player, that doesnt make them a better QB at that moment. A QB has to be able to execute pass and run plays.

[Boltjolt]

Apologies if it wasnt you. Its been posted several times in the last few days.
I never said you said Herbert was bad
I contest your presumption that Rivers is better at running an offense, as I’m sure you have noticed. Lets for argument say that is true, that doesn’t necessarily make him a better QB overall. I am sure there are coaches that can read it even better than the QBs, for example. There are ex-pros that can read it better than any active player, that doesnt make them a better QB at that moment. A QB has to be able to execute pass and run plays.

I been staying out of that debate the past few days lol. Not going to argue this either. Never used the words better at running the offense. Rivers just had total control of it , down to running the offensive meetings. May have even called some of the plays, just not sure there. He certainly changed some of them.

Herbert isn't there yet and I gave some reason why. Harbaugh and yes,...Roman will have him clicking in this one.

[dmac_bolt]

I been staying out of that debate the past few days lol. Not going to argue this either. Never used the words better at running the offense. Rivers just had total control of it , down to running the offensive meetings. May have even called some of the plays, just not sure there. He certainly changed some of them.

Herbert isn't there yet and I gave some reason why. Harbaugh and yes,...Roman will have him clicking in this one.

what you describe is what I paraphrased as running the offense so I didnt have to repeat your complete sentences. I feel thats a quibble. Bygones, I don’t care