Chargers at Raiders Pre-Game Discussion (Week 18)

[Bolt-O]

[Velo]

They've gotten away from televising the Raiders in the Bay Area and Sacramento viewership area. There are still a lot of Raiders fans here. But I guess the decision-makers feel Chiefs-Broncos is more alluring because it does feature one team still fighting to make the playoffs, even though the other team is likely to play mostly back ups.

[sonorajim]

Defense! Defense! Bobby Ross had it. We got it now.

The defense was top 10 from '76 to '79. #1 in '98. Ross '94 team was #14.(Yards)

[dmac_bolt]

The defense was top 10 from '76 to '79. #1 in '98. Ross '94 team was #14.(Yards)

Fouts choked the 79 playoffs single-handed.

[dmac_bolt]

agree, but i am against the narrative about widening the goal posts. people are still missing kicks this season or having them blocked.

EDIT: i meant to say NARROWING the goal posts.

I’ve never heard the narrative about widening the goal posts.

2024 NFL League avg FG rate = 85%. My guess is 1980 Rolf era it was 70%. 70% gets a kicker fired quickly in 2024. The trend is clear as day … this only goes to 2013 …

image.png

[Velo]

Going into the season I had a hunch that if the Chargers were going to succeed, the defense was going to have to carry the team while the offense found its identity. I felt the defense was going to be much improved, but the defense has been more than improved, it's done a complete about-face, here we are at the end of the season and they lead the NFL in points allowed - 17.6. IMO, the points allowed is the defensive stat that overshadows every other defensive stat. Who cares about yards allowed, pass defense, run defense, sacks, turnovers - at the end of the day what matters is how many points you allow your opponent to score or not score, because games are won on the scoreboard not the stat sheet.

Anyway, I really wanted to make this post about the evolution of offense. It was so completely gutted and replaced with new parts. Herbert's top four receivers gone. Entirely new RB corps. Entirely new TEs. Even the OL underwent change with a new center and a new face (and huge upgrade) at RT. It struggled and stumbled through much of the season while Roman has tried to figure out what works. And now the offense is beginning to blossom just at the right time as it has figured itself out.

Roman figured out Ladd McConkey is a deep threat. I just watched Mina Kimes note that the Chargers are 7-2 when Ladd's depth of target is 10 yards are more.

Play action has become the identity of their pass game, they are running more play action than any other offense right now. Dan Orlovsky says he has always felt Herbert is at his best in play-action. He also notes that play-action is helping the protection and it's enabling lesser receivers get open and make plays.

The past several games, more players are catching passes. Smartt, DD, even Tucker Fisk. Palmer is averaging 3.75 catches over the past four games. In his previous 11 games, Palmer averaged under 2.2 catches per game. (He's missed one game.)

The Chargers' offense has scored 74 pts the past two games, 37 per. Though New England's defense is not very good, don't forget that the Chargers traveled across the country and played a 10 am game in the cold, and absolutely dominated in a hostile stadium, their biggest points output of the season. The week before that, on a short week they scored 34 pts on a Broncos defense that was tied with the Chargers for fewest pts allowed. Only the Ravens have scored more on the Broncos (41) this season.

What's interesting to me is that they only have 5 WRs on the roster, after starting the season with 7. And one of those 5 is basically useless. Roman and Herbert have figured out what and who is working out for them. Derius Davis is emerging, you can bet Roman is going to give him more downfield snaps. Having two WRs with speed in the 4.3s who can catch deep balls makes this offense more problematic for defenses. Smartt is emerging as a possession receiver who has a big catch radius and will beat defenders at the point of the catch. Dissley has returned. Dobbins is back, he is going to really boost the offense. They're figuring out how to use Haskins as well. Hurst is healthy finally, maybe he will contribute also.

The Chargers' losses were almost all caused by the offense struggling to score. With the exception of the Tampa game, the defense played well enough to win every game. The D has only allowed 30 or more points twice - 30 to the Ravens, 40 to the Bucs. Now the offense is emerging and is scoring points at a blistering rate, Herbert is throwing TD passes to McConkey and DD from outside the red zone. McConkey is almost uncoverable. DD does not have McConkey's ability to turn DBs completely around. But he has that elite speed, and if he gets behind your defense good luck trying to catch him.

The running game is going to ramp up with Dobbins back. The Chargers' play-action game is becoming more lethal, the offense is going to improve every game going forward. Watch out.

[dmac_bolt]

Going into the season I had a hunch that if the Chargers were going to succeed, the defense was going to have to carry the team while the offense found its identity. I felt the defense was going to be much improved, but the defense has been more than improved, it's done a complete about-face, here we are at the end of the season and they lead the NFL in points allowed - 17.6. IMO, the points allowed is the defensive stat that overshadows every other defensive stat. Who cares about yards allowed, pass defense, run defense, sacks, turnovers - at the end of the day what matters is how many points you allow your opponent to score or not score, because games are won on the scoreboard not the stat sheet.

Anyway, I really wanted to make this post about the evolution of offense. It was so completely gutted and replaced with new parts. Herbert's top four receivers gone. Entirely new RB corps. Entirely new TEs. Even the OL underwent change with a new center and a new face (and huge upgrade) at RT. It struggled and stumbled through much of the season while Roman has tried to figure out what works. And now the offense is beginning to blossom just at the right time as it has figured itself out.

Roman figured out Ladd McConkey is a deep threat. I just watched Mina Kimes note that the Chargers are 7-2 when Ladd's depth of target is 10 yards are more.

Play action has become the identity of their pass game, they are running more play action than any other offense right now. Dan Orlovsky says he has always felt Herbert is at his best in play-action. He also notes that play-action is helping the protection and it's enabling lesser receivers get open and make plays.

The past several games, more players are catching passes. Smartt, DD, even Tucker Fisk. Palmer is averaging 3.75 catches over the past four games. In his previous 11 games, Palmer averaged under 2.2 catches per game. (He's missed one game.)

The Chargers' offense has scored 74 pts the past two games, 37 per. Though New England's defense is not very good, don't forget that the Chargers traveled across the country and played a 10 am game in the cold, and absolutely dominated in a hostile stadium, their biggest points output of the season. The week before that, on a short week they scored 34 pts on a Broncos defense that was tied with the Chargers for fewest pts allowed. Only the Ravens have scored more on the Broncos (41) this season.

What's interesting to me is that they only have 5 WRs on the roster, after starting the season with 7. And one of those 5 is basically useless. Roman and Herbert have figured out what and who is working out for them. Derius Davis is emerging, you can bet Roman is going to give him more downfield snaps. Having two WRs with speed in the 4.3s who can catch deep balls makes this offense more problematic for defenses. Smartt is emerging as a possession receiver who has a big catch radius and will beat defenders at the point of the catch. Dissley has returned. Dobbins is back, he is going to really boost the offense. They're figuring out how to use Haskins as well. Hurst is healthy finally, maybe he will contribute also.

The Chargers' losses were almost all caused by the offense struggling to score. With the exception of the Tampa game, the defense played well enough to win every game. The D has only allowed 30 or more points twice - 30 to the Ravens, 40 to the Bucs. Now the offense is emerging and is scoring points at a blistering rate, Herbert is throwing TD passes to McConkey and DD from outside the red zone. McConkey is almost uncoverable. DD does not have McConkey's ability to turn DBs completely around. But he has that elite speed, and if he gets behind your defense good luck trying to catch him.

The running game is going to ramp up with Dobbins back. The Chargers' play-action game is becoming more lethal, the offense is going to improve every game going forward. Watch out.

If it’s real, and not the broncos and pats … we could shock the world!!!

[northerner]

I’ve never heard the narrative about widening the goal posts.

2024 NFL League avg FG rate = 85%. My guess is 1980 Rolf era it was 70%. 70% gets a kicker fired quickly in 2024. The trend is clear as day … this only goes to 2013 …

image.png

i added an edit to narrow. my mistake. nice graph though!

[Bolt4Knob]

They've gotten away from televising the Raiders in the Bay Area and Sacramento viewership area. There are still a lot of Raiders fans here. But I guess the decision-makers feel Chiefs-Broncos is more alluring because it does feature one team still fighting to make the playoffs, even though the other team is likely to play mostly back ups.

Interesting about who gets the Raiders/Chargers
Granted, the Broncos playing for something does make that game more meaningful. That said, if the Bengals lose, Chargers won't have anything to play for

[dmac_bolt]

i added an edit to narrow. my mistake. nice graph though!

Oh, gotcha. Yeah, i agree with you - they shouldn’t narrow it just because kickers are better trained, better athletes, and more successful.

I’d rather they focus on retracting their new KO rule. The most un-football sacrilege ever foisted on our beloved game. I absolutely hate every little convoluted stupid part of it.

[Formula 21]

Oakland doesn’t get the Raiders game?

[Formula 21]

More scoring = better game. Don’t mess with field goals.