Originally posted by Boltjolt
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Chargers 2026 Schedule
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I'm not a climatologist, but from a meteorologists point of view, it looks like the El Nino is setting up nicely. So if you are hoping for the 18% chance of it not shaping up ... probably not.Originally posted by Boltjolt View Post
El Nino year, it might be 60-70 deg
From the Web
El Niño is expected to develop between June and August and significantly ramp up by November, peaking through the Northern Hemisphere winter (December 2026–February 2027). Forecasters project a 65% chance this will be a strong event
Current conditions in the Pacific are primarily neutral. However, according to updates from the Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, the transition to El Niño is highly likely to follow this seasonal timeline: [1]- May to July: An 82% chance El Niño conditions will begin to emerge.
- November to January: A 37% chance of an unusually intense "Super El Niño" occurring.
- December to February 2027: A 96% likelihood that the El Niño pattern will peak and dominate winter weather
As far as trying to extrapolate the conditions from a general climate prediction to a weather forecast on a specific date ... well, good luck. Never had much luck with that, and not for lack of trying.
If you look at CPC's graphics on the "typical" El Nino winter in North America, there is a big ridge of high pressure over the western US, and cool moist air (rainy) over the southern US. Denver is close to both active branches of the jet stream which for me just brings up flash backs to a graduate dynamics class. My overall point is Denver is in close enough proximity to both areas that it is kind of a crap shoot.
One thing we have learned about El Nino's is every time we think we know what they are going to do (from a forecasting perspective), nature has a way of humbling us. IMHO, there is no such thing as a "typical" El Nino, each one is pretty different.
Just saying.
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Interests me because it affects my ability to ride or not. Typically I don't like riding in the rain. During periods of drought I get more miles in over the winter months. Wetter winters means I clock fewer miles during those months. So I'm keeping an eye on it.Originally posted by Steve View Post
I'm not a climatologist, but from a meteorologists point of view, it looks like the El Nino is setting up nicely. So if you are hoping for the 18% chance of it not shaping up ... probably not.
As far as trying to extrapolate the conditions from a general climate prediction to a weather forecast on a specific date ... well, good luck. Never had much luck with that, and not for lack of trying.
If you look at CPC's graphics on the "typical" El Nino winter in North America, there is a big ridge of high pressure over the western US, and cool moist air (rainy) over the southern US. Denver is close to both active branches of the jet stream which for me just brings up flash backs to a graduate dynamics class. My overall point is Denver is in close enough proximity to both areas that it is kind of a crap shoot.
One thing we have learned about El Nino's is every time we think we know what they are going to do (from a forecasting perspective), nature has a way of humbling us. IMHO, there is no such thing as a "typical" El Nino, each one is pretty different.
Just saying.
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