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The NFL has a new leader atop the AFC and a total of five playoff spots accounted for. That leaves seven left to be claimed in the final two weeks of the season.
Here's what we know heading into Monday night's Atlanta Falcons-Tampa Bay Buccaneersmatchup, using ESPN's Football Power Index when appropriate to indicate favorites.
AFC
1. New England Patriots (11-3)
Sunday's wild game in Pittsburgh helped the Patriots clinch the AFC East and reclaim the pole position for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Jaguars' 10th victory means that the Patriots haven't clinched a first-round bye, but they'll have a chance to wrap it up with home games against the Bills in Week 16 and the Jets in Week 17.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3)
The catch rule bit the Steelers and probably scuttled their chances to clinch home-field advantage. Because of the head-to-head tiebreaker, they'll need to win one more game than the Patriots over the final two weeks of the season. The Steelers have already won the AFC North, but because they lost to the Jaguars in Week 5 and would thus lose a tiebreaker with them, the Steelers are not yet guaranteed a first-round bye.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
The Jaguars clinched a playoff berth with Sunday's win over the Texans and could wrap up the AFC South with one more victory (or a Tennessee loss). But why stop there? Amazingly, the Jaguars are still in play for the AFC's top seed and could win a tiebreaker with either the Patriots or Steelers, or both. Wouldn't that be an incredible turn of events at the end of a wild season?
4. Kansas City Chiefs (8-6)
The Chiefs rebounded Saturday after allowing their AFC West lead to shrink as small as possible without losing it entirely. Their victory over the Chargers clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker between the teams, in essence giving the Chiefs a two-game lead over L.A. with two games to play.
5. Tennessee Titans (8-6)
If you're going to lose in the midst of a playoff race, you better hope it comes against a team in the opposite conference. Sunday's loss to the 49ers didn't help the Titans, but it didn't hurt them as much as if it had been to an AFC opponent. As a result, the Titans still beat both the Bills and Ravens based on the conference record tiebreaker. FPI still gives the Titans a 68.5 percent chance to make the playoffs.
6. Buffalo Bills (8-6)
For the moment, we have the Bills in the sixth seed based on the strength of victory tiebreaker over the Ravens. But after next week, both the Bills and Ravens will have enough common games (minimum of four required) to shift the applicable tiebreaker. And so the Bills could win Sunday at the Patriots and still drop behind the Ravens in the seedings -- if the Ravens beat the Colts.
In the hunt:
Kevin SeifertNFL Nation
The NFL has a new leader atop the AFC and a total of five playoff spots accounted for. That leaves seven left to be claimed in the final two weeks of the season.
Here's what we know heading into Monday night's Atlanta Falcons-Tampa Bay Buccaneersmatchup, using ESPN's Football Power Index when appropriate to indicate favorites.
AFC
1. New England Patriots (11-3)Sunday's wild game in Pittsburgh helped the Patriots clinch the AFC East and reclaim the pole position for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Jaguars' 10th victory means that the Patriots haven't clinched a first-round bye, but they'll have a chance to wrap it up with home games against the Bills in Week 16 and the Jets in Week 17.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3)The catch rule bit the Steelers and probably scuttled their chances to clinch home-field advantage. Because of the head-to-head tiebreaker, they'll need to win one more game than the Patriots over the final two weeks of the season. The Steelers have already won the AFC North, but because they lost to the Jaguars in Week 5 and would thus lose a tiebreaker with them, the Steelers are not yet guaranteed a first-round bye.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)The Jaguars clinched a playoff berth with Sunday's win over the Texans and could wrap up the AFC South with one more victory (or a Tennessee loss). But why stop there? Amazingly, the Jaguars are still in play for the AFC's top seed and could win a tiebreaker with either the Patriots or Steelers, or both. Wouldn't that be an incredible turn of events at the end of a wild season?
4. Kansas City Chiefs (8-6)The Chiefs rebounded Saturday after allowing their AFC West lead to shrink as small as possible without losing it entirely. Their victory over the Chargers clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker between the teams, in essence giving the Chiefs a two-game lead over L.A. with two games to play.
5. Tennessee Titans (8-6)If you're going to lose in the midst of a playoff race, you better hope it comes against a team in the opposite conference. Sunday's loss to the 49ers didn't help the Titans, but it didn't hurt them as much as if it had been to an AFC opponent. As a result, the Titans still beat both the Bills and Ravens based on the conference record tiebreaker. FPI still gives the Titans a 68.5 percent chance to make the playoffs.
6. Buffalo Bills (8-6)For the moment, we have the Bills in the sixth seed based on the strength of victory tiebreaker over the Ravens. But after next week, both the Bills and Ravens will have enough common games (minimum of four required) to shift the applicable tiebreaker. And so the Bills could win Sunday at the Patriots and still drop behind the Ravens in the seedings -- if the Ravens beat the Colts.
In the hunt:
- Baltimore Ravens (8-6): As noted, a win Saturday against the Colts would vault the Ravens into the No. 6 seed, regardless of the Bills' outcome.
- Los Angeles Chargers (7-7): The Chargers need help from the Ravens or Bills -- or the Chiefs -- if they're going to make the playoffs. Winning last Saturday in Kansas City might have been their best chance.