3 steps to success: News beginnings or Philip Rivers' swan song?

[MakoShark]

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/6/19/4428646/san-diego-chargers-2013-season-outlook-philip-rivers

It wasn't long ago that Philip Rivers was viewed as the most talented quarterback from the 2004 class. He just didn't have the jewelry to prove it. As time has progressed Rivers has been fine, but his performance has mirrored that of the Chargers, mired in mediocrity. The front office has made wholesale changes, prompting questions about whether Rivers could be next.

An offensive-minded coaching staff will give Rivers plenty of schematic support -- but it's hard to tell whether that will be enough with big questions about the talent around him.

Three Steps to Success

1. Rivers needs to be near-perfect

There is a link between the team's successes and struggles and how well Rivers takes care of the football. In years where he's finished with single-digit interceptions, the Chargers have done well. Unless he plays near-perfect football the offense struggles. It's a testament to how important Rivers is and highlights his need for help.

2. Can Dwight Freeney turn back the clock?

Signed as a free agent, Freeney has plenty left in the tank. He'll be asked to be the team's primary pass rusher as the Chargers contend with Melvin Ingram's injury. The was supposed to be the year 2012's first round pick took a step forward, but that plan is now on hold. Freeney is coming off his worst season since 2007 after the Colts transitioned to a 3-4 defense. He's playing in 3-4 again with the Chargers.

3. The secondary needs to be the Chargers' ace in the hole

Issues with the pass rush can be mitigated by the strengths the team has at cornerback and safety. Eric Weddle is the team's best defender, but the big play to acquire Derek Cox could be the difference. He's a ball-hawking defender who can generate turnovers quickly, and punishing the quarterbacks in the division could be the key to making a run at Denver.

Three Feats Toward Failure

1. Where is the run game?

Acquiring Danny Woodhead will give Philip Rivers another weapon, but Ryan Mathews needs to carry the load in 2013. He's admitted the need to take a step forward. The former first-round pick understands the pressure's on him. The Chargers don't have a real safety net at the position.

2. Relying on Danario Alexander is a risk

Last season was Alexander's breakout, but there are concerns about turning him into a primary offensive option. There's no guarantee he can have sustained success, or match the 7 touchdowns he scored in 2012. The team has Keenan Allen waiting in the wings, if needed. Allen, a rookie, is still recovering from injury and shouldn't be pushed. On an offense that relies on Malcom Floyd to be the #1 option, Alexander will need to be more than a traditional #2.

3. The offensive line needs to learn on the job

The Chargers did a great job recognizing their primary weakness, and addressing it quickly -- but when there are three new starters on a line it can be an issue. D.J. Fluker wont get any time to slowly be integrated into the line, and will be as integral as the rest of the starters. Purely from a talent perspective they made an upgrade, but chemistry doesn't happen overnight. That could be a problem.

Ultimate answer

The Chargers have talent, but lack chemistry. The offense has a lot of new moving parts, and with a new coaching staff it could take time to come together. This team needs to start strong in order to keep in step with the Broncos, and that is difficult for a first-time head coach.

There is a lot of experience on Mike McCoy's staff. It's still a very tenuous position to be in. The clock's ticking for Philip Rivers. Whether or not he'll be in his prime could be the difference between taking that step or not.

[MakoShark]

The part about relying on Alexander is a wash, IMO. Its our deepest position and Rivers has proven that if you protect him, he can get the ball to anyone. What he says about Alexander I would say about Cox.

[Mister Hoarse]

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[Steve]

Three steps to success
1). In seasons where he had single digit int, was it because he was that good, or was it because he was surrounded by that much other talent?
2). Dwight Freeney may not be a very good 34 OLB, but we play our ROLB just like a 43 DE on over 50% of the snaps. I don't see why the scheme matters to us, so long as we just make sure he is on the field for all of those minutes. The key is finding someone else to bookend with him. The bookend doesn't have to be great, just solid.
3). I hate it when writers isolate one area on D saying this is the key. If the secondary doesn't take away the 1st read, the QB throws before the rush gets there. If the rush doesn't get there, the QB goes through their progression. You can't just have one or the other, you need both, and if you don't have both you aren't going to be that good.

Three Feats Toward Failure
1). It would be nice to have a featured back, but lots of teams have done it (past and present) without one. McClain had over 900 yards one year, so he can carry a lot. Brown and Woodhead are probably not featured backs, but both can carry some of the load. None of that means we can't look for a UDFA or just keep looking and get a new back next year. And Mathews has a ton of talent, so it is not like he still isn't in the mix. It's not an ideal situation, but it is not horrible.
2). Alexander is a risk, but this idea that we have to have a #1 WR is pretty stupid. We need production, who cares where it comes from? We have a whole stable of guys who can be #2-ish WR, which is pretty much the situation we had back when we went to the SB. Martin, our most productive WR didn't even start most of the season. I would love it if we could find a featured, #1 Wr, but that will come if all the other pieces come together. If Alexander can stay healthy, it would be great. I just don't think it matters that much.
3). The OL had some continuity in scheme and personnel last year. They sucked. I really don't think it matters that much right now. Sure, continuity and teamwork COULD be a problem, but keeping the same line WAS a problem, so I think we are already ahead. If he wanted to talk about whether it was enough of an improvement in the new players (particuarly at OG), then there is a legit argument. But we had to make the moves and get some new bodies, so the teamwork/continuity thing is unavoidable, so I don't understand why it is an issue.

[Beerman]

While I'm not expecting the same Freeney as 5-6 years ago, I'm kinda shocked no one mentions that he was dealing with a high ankle sprain virtually for 2 months? No pass rusher will have success if they can't push off or maintain leverage. You can't do that on 1 ankle vs. 300lb+ lineman.

I remember seeing a stat that he almost doubled the amount of hurries he had in the 2nd half of the season vs. the 1st.

And like Steve said, as long as Pagano doesn't use him as a 3 down OLB, we should be fine. Play him when we are in the nickel (50% of snaps last season) and we should be just fine.

We are still going to need Larry English to really step up since he likely will have to play all downs. I doubt Tourek Williams sees the field much barring injury.

[Den60]

While I'm not expecting the same Freeney as 5-6 years ago, I'm kinda shocked no one mentions that he was dealing with a high ankle sprain virtually for 2 months? No pass rusher will have success if they can't push off or maintain leverage. You can't do that on 1 ankle vs. 300lb+ lineman.

I remember seeing a stat that he almost doubled the amount of hurries he had in the 2nd half of the season vs. the 1st.

And like Steve said, as long as Pagano doesn't use him as a 3 down OLB, we should be fine. Play him when we are in the nickel (50% of snaps last season) and we should be just fine.

We are still going to need Larry English to really step up since he likely will have to play all downs. I doubt Tourek Williams sees the field much barring injury.

He is a 33 year old defensive lineman. He is not going to go 16 games this year without hurting something. On top of that, what happens if we lose JJ or English for any length of time? Who replaces one (or both) of them should they get hurt? We may not have the luxury to play Freeney only on obvious passing downs. Hell, given how Pagano used Ingram last year I would be surprised if we don't see the guy being asked to drop back in coverage. Last year we had 5 OLBers (4 with experience at the position). We were pretty lucky to be healthy for the season (only losing Barnes). This year we have already lost Ingram.

[Beerman]

He is a 33 year old defensive lineman. He is not going to go 16 games this year without hurting something. On top of that, what happens if we lose JJ or English for any length of time? Who replaces one (or both) of them should they get hurt? We may not have the luxury to play Freeney only on obvious passing downs. Hell, given how Pagano used Ingram last year I would be surprised if we don't see the guy being asked to drop back in coverage. Last year we had 5 OLBers (4 with experience at the position). We were pretty lucky to be healthy for the season (only losing Barnes). This year we have already lost Ingram.

It's not like those are issues every team doesn't deal with. Injuries happen obviously. I still don't understand why you are so hung up on them. You can't have depth everywhere the immediate year after you get rid of all your veterans. Everyone can't get hurt. You make due.

[Mister Hoarse]

Counting on English to start 16 games and play more time than our 33 year old FA pass rusher is even more far fetched.

formerly Field 17 Row 11 Seat 1

[blueman]

Be nice if T. Williams surprised, and became at least a decent part of the OLB rotation.

[Den60]

It's not like those are issues every team doesn't deal with. Injuries happen obviously. I still don't understand why you are so hung up on them. You can't have depth everywhere the immediate year after you get rid of all your veterans. Everyone can't get hurt. You make due.

On defense we have no depth. We had much better depth last year. I have said that I absolutely hate the Freeney signing. That money would have been better used locking up Butler. We had options to sign someone much cheaper that Freeney before Ingram got hurt but TT chose to gamble that we could go into the season with just 3 OLBers. He screwed the pooch on that one once Ingram got hurt and then he ran out and overpaid for a guy who didn't produce last year, is way past his prime, and doesn't even fit the defense we run.

Why were so many on here (I consider here to be the same as the old board) "hungup" on not having adequate depth at LT and LG when Dielman and McNeil went down? People went absolutely ballistic that we didn't have those positions filled with all pros when they go hurt.

But, what I am pointing out is that we have a lot less depth on defense in the front 7 this season. We are also counting on a FA CB who was let go by his former team because he had issues staying healthy. When you go through our secondary you will find that we are counting a lot on people who are young, playing a new position, or have had trouble staying healthy. On the D-line we have 3 legit players. We don't have quality depth behind them. At OLB we have two players (and two DEs, one of which is a 6th round rookie). That isn't a good scenario. Guys are going to get injured and on defense we will take a huge step backwards if any of the following get hurt: Luiget, Reyes, Butler, Cox, Weddle. Others that may not be effectively replaceable given what we have on our roster are: Thomas, JJ, and English. Yeah, it seems a bit strange to put English's name on there but we have no one on the roster to replace him.

[Beerman]

I guess the point I'm trying to make is that I just don't see how we could have acquired any depth that would have made you happy. We had HUGE, massive holes where we didn't even have starters. Hard to get depth when you need starters to begin with. AJ left us some depth, but there was a massive roster turnover (about 50% if I'm not mistaken or close to it). We had 6 draft picks. The numbers just don't add up. We barely have enough starters, depth is just going to have to wait. Don't forget that we have about 10% of our cap stuck in dead space.

I for one am happy at least that we have a better starting roster (at least according to me), where we had better depth last season. I'll take the trade off.

[Heatmiser]

Nose tackle is my biggest worry and it didn't even make this guy's list. Cam Thomas has teased us but I am still uneasy about him. He got beat out by an over the hill Franklin last year. And after Thomas, the Bolts have............still waiting.........

The NT sets up this whole defense. Without a good one, we are screwed.

I personally think Rivers will be fine, as someone said, WR is so deep at this point that Alexander or Floyd getting hurt can be absorbed. Under Norv, the first few games of every season it seemed the OL, RB, TE all struggled with pass blocking. And then Norv would adjust after 2-3 games and things would pick up. I hope McCoy fixes that.

TG

TG