Justin Herbert - Bolts Franchise QB Official Discussion

[Bolt4Knob]

He overcomes in every game. He overcomes a shoddy OL and a depleted WR corps. He overcomes that in every game and scores enough points to win. It's the defense that loses the games.

For me, its a pattern over the course of his career. Sure there are games like Dallas where an on-target pass to Keenan (and yes, he totally missed him) - might have been the difference. But as pointed out above, the patterns over the course of his some 60 starts - the defense is terrible.

[richpjr]

Popper chimes in:

Chargers’ Justin Herbert is playing like an MVP quarterback again. Will it even matter?

Justin Herbert has regained his MVP form.

Will it even matter?

That is where this season stands for the Los Angeles Chargers after a 41-38 loss to the Detroit Lions on Sunday at SoFi Stadium.

Herbert played one of the best games of his career. No caveats or qualifiers needed. The counting stats were there, sure: 27-of-40 for 323 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. But the finer details are necessary to fully contextualize the performance.

When Herbert has been at this level in his career, it’s his playmaking in got-to-have-it moments that really shines. This is the peak of his competitive identity, a refusal to lose that reveals itself in so many different ways — escaping what appear to be certain sacks, creating in off-script situations, processing like a cyborg and throwing into minuscule windows with precision and confidence.

The Chargers needed all of that Sunday to even stay in this game against the Lions. They scored touchdowns on five straight possessions to close out the game, and each drive had at least one of these special moments from Herbert. He completed 7-of-11 passes for 122 yards and two touchdowns on third and fourth down. He finished averaging 1.12 expected points added per dropback on third and fourth down, the second-best single-game performance of his career on those downs, according to TruMedia. For context, Patrick Mahomes won MVP last season averaging .27 EPA per dropback.

The Chargers still lost. And that is what should be so demoralizing about this game for everyone involved with the organization. Against the best teams, the ones the Chargers will have to get through to reach their ultimate goal, Herbert playing like an MVP is not good enough. Coach Brandon Staley’s defense is failing Hebert. It has been failing Herbert for three seasons.

Wasting performances like this one is just not acceptable. At the same time, there’s little evidence to suggest the Chargers defense will stop wasting them.

“We just didn’t make enough plays in that fourth quarter on defense to finish the job,” Staley said Monday.

It is valuable to dive into all the plays Herbert made in these key situations Sunday. Many of those plays would not have been possible without receiver Keenan Allen, who is on pace to shatter his career highs in receiving yards, touchdowns and receptions in his age-31 season. Allen is one of the best receivers in the league and has been for the bulk of his career. His synergy with Herbert is what is allowing the Chargers offense to still produce despite injuries to Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer and the absence of a functional running game.

Let’s roll through these plays.

• Third-and-7, 4:56 remaining in the first half, Chargers trailing 17-3. Herbert escaped pressure from Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson off the right side. He could not set his feet fully with additional pressure bearing down, but he threw side-arm and off-platform to Allen for an 11-yard gain. First down. Four plays later, Herbert delivered a pinpoint missile to Allen from 29 yards out for the Chargers’ first touchdown of the game, making it a one-score game. Allen ran a silky double-move post route. There was not a ton of separation, though. Herbert threw him open.

• Next possession. Third-and-2 from the Lions’ 39-yard line, 1:34 remaining in the first half, Chargers trailing 24-10. The defense had just allowed a 75-yard touchdown run on the first play of the previous possession. The Lions brought a blitz. Pressure came off the right edge and up the middle. Herbert stood in the pocket and floated a touch pass through contact to Allen into double coverage down the left sideline. Allen created separation with one of his patented stutter-step releases. It was a 28-yard completion. The Chargers scored four plays later on an Austin Ekeler run to cut the lead to seven points entering halftime.

• First possession of the second half. Third-and-8 from the Lions’ 49-yard line. Chargers still trailing 24-17. The Lions brought a slot corner blitz. Allen was aligned in the slot to that side. Herbert saw the blitz as he was receiving the shotgun snap. He threw hot to Allen on a slant route for an easy first down. Not a flashy play, but a clear indication of how well Herbert was processing and seeing the field. Herbert completed another third-and-3 to Allen later in the drive on a crossing route. Allen hurt his shoulder in this play. Herbert then capped the drive with one of his best plays of the game. He killed the initial play at the line of scrimmage. Herbert took the shotgun snap, faked a screen to Derius Davis, using his eyes and body language to draw in two defensive backs, Brian Branch and Tracy Walker III. That opened up the seam, and he fired a touchdown strike to Jalen Guyton in between two defenders. This was his tightest-window completion of the day. Tie game, 24-24.

• Next possession. The Lions had gone 75 yards in seven plays to take a 31-24 lead. The Chargers faced a third-and-5 with 3:58 remaining in the third quarter at their own 30. Pressure came off the right side again after Hutchinson and defensive lineman John Cominsky twisted on a stunt. Herbert side-stepped Cominsky in a tight pocket. Then he broke a sack attempt from linebacker Derrick Barnes. Herbert escaped to the right for a 13-yard first down scramble. Later in the drive, Allen was out of the game getting his shoulder tended to. The Chargers faced a second-and-12 from the Detroit 25-yard line. They were behind the sticks after Quentin Johnston whiffed on a block on a swing screen to Davis. Pressure came off the right edge again from Hutchinson. Herbert stiff-armed Hutchinson and escaped to the outside right. He was on the run with Hutchinson closing and delivered a strike to Johnston for a first down.

• The Chargers needed six attempts from 1 yard out to finish that drive with a touchdown. They also needed a stroke of genius from Herbert and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Fourth-and-goal from the 1, 11:33 left in regulation. Herbert faked a pitch to the right to Ekeler. The Lions bit on the play fake. Herbert found Johnston wide open behind the Detroit defense, tying that game at 31. This was an especially noteworthy play because Herbert executed the fake pitch with his injured left hand. Herbert fractured his left middle finger in Week 4. The most telling sign yet that Herbert is getting healthy.

• And finally: The fourth-and-1 touchdown to Allen on another great design from Moore. The Chargers deceived the Lions with a rub-route concept to the flat. That allowed Allen to slip uncovered to the sideline on a corner route. Herbert hit him, and Allen made Branch miss before scoring to tie the game at 38.

That was the last time Herbert touched the ball.

“Third down and those high-leverage situations, fourth downs, red zone, I thought he was really, really good,” Staley said.

The Chargers can get to nine wins if they beat the Green Bay Packers (Week 11), New England Patriots (Week 13), Las Vegas Raiders (Week 15) and Denver Broncos twice (Week 14 and Week 17). To get to 10 wins — which feels like the minimum for a playoff appearance in a crowded AFC — they will have to win against either the Baltimore Ravens (Week 12), Buffalo Bills (Week 16) or Kansas City Chiefs (Week 18).

The Chargers will be in all those games if Herbert continues playing like he did Sunday.

To win all the games they need to win, though, Herbert and Allen alone won’t be enough.

They need help — help they have not gotten.

Since Herbert entered the league in 2020, the Chargers have never finished a season with positive combined EPA on defense and special teams, according to TruMedia. They ranked 26th in 2020, 30th in 2021 and 20th last year.

Through 10 weeks, the Chargers have proceeded -19.9 EPA combined on defense and special teams.

That ranks 29th in the league.

[Bolt4Knob]

Popper chimes in:

You I think stated it - maybe Velo but I think it was you - his margin for error in the passing game - not the entire offense, the passing game - is very small. No running game, terrible defense so he has to carry the team with the passing game. So that means not only making all the throws - but cannot take sacks or turn the ball over

[richpjr]

You I think stated it - maybe Velo but I think it was you - his margin for error in the passing game - not the entire offense, the passing game - is very small. No running game, terrible defense so he has to carry the team with the passing game. So that means not only making all the throws - but cannot take sacks or turn the ball over

I have been harping on that for a long time. Look at those top 2 linked videos in that article - he has to be absolutely pin point perfect on those passes or they are broken up or picked. He has to do that all the time. We are wasting his career under Staley.

[Velo]

Popper chimes in:

It's enough to make one puke. The Spanoses seem oblivious, but of course they are not. They just don't know what to do at this point, is my guess.

[Bolt4Knob]

I have been harping on that for a long time. Look at those top 2 linked videos in that article - he has to be absolutely pin point perfect on those passes or they are broken up or picked. He has to do that all the time. We are wasting his career under Staley.

Truly wasting his career. First Rivers under Telesco and his lack of giving him an OL and now Staley with Telesco
There needs to be a change

[jubei]

The Spanoses seem oblivious, but of course they are not.

you give the spanuses too much credit

[jubei]

I've been critical of Herbert a couple of times this year for the first time but when I step back and look at what he has to overcome...I feel better about him. Wonder what nacho acho thinks....he's probably grinnin cheek to cheek.

[Xenos]

[CanadianBoltFan]

Truly wasting his career. First Rivers under Telesco and his lack of giving him an OL and now Staley with Telesco
There needs to be a change

Completely wasting Herbert's career.

Time for Herbert to take off the nice guy gloves, get his management team together, march into Spanos office and tell them to get this mess fixed and bring in good people or make a very public trade request.

Herbert is the golden goose. The only chance the Spanos have to be relevant in the Los Angeles market. They really need to stop fucking up the opportunity they have been given.

[Velo]

you give the spanuses too much credit

I don't think the Spanoses are oblivious, they are scared, or timid maybe is a better word.

[JOJAX85]

I don't think the Spanoses are oblivious, they are scared, or timid maybe is a better word.

I don't even think it's that. Silver spoon Spanos made $78M last year without giving a damn about winning. That will continue until he's gone.