2024 Chargers Draft Superthread - Prospect Discussion - Draft Has Started

[SAY OW 55]

Tua is far-and-away the more 'traditional' leader. He's got the vibe of a tribal leader with warrior intensity. Since 8th grade, whatever team he was on, everybody followed him.

Herb just isn't *that* guy. Which doesn't mean he can't be/isn't great. I just think that the type of temperament Herb has is less predictive of pro success,

And Herb playing through the torn rib cartilage/broken finger stuff? The Dolphins didn't see any of that before the draft, so couldn't have taken that into consideration. Tua, OTOH, had been through a lot of pre-draft adversity that he fought through courageously, and Dolphins' brain trust definitely saw THAT. At the time of the draft, Tua demonstrated more than Herbert had.

Nah Man nah.

Are you kidding me did you see at the University of Oregon??? All those players played for Herbert. They all wanted to win for Herbert. After the Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin they said that. Guys were so inspired when he came back.

Btw could’ve been the number 1 pick a season before.

So I don’t want to hear that. Came in against Patrick Mahomes the best Quarterback in the league and held his own in his first start.

Was such a leader that he was leading by example as a rookie. Always ready owned his drills with Keenan Allen. But didn’t campaign for it knew Taylor was the starter and respected him. Shit like that goes huge in a locker room.

I understand what you’re saying But Herbert led the fuck outa this team. Even Hurts was more of a selfless leader at Alabama than Tua.

[Ghost of Quacksaw]

Maybe they can also try to convert Woods into a corner...

If he can't tackle, I'm guessing his only shot would be as a wideout. And I don't see that happening.

Although I've always wondered what Ed White's reaction was to arriving in the NFL and immediately being converted from DT to OG. It obviously worked out great. Likewise with Kris Dielman. I interviewed Ed White a few times, and I wish I had asked him about this.

[Icebolt]

I like what I see of Hortiz. Humble and not very smug. Now I realize that he has not been under fire YET! and that sometimes shows you another side of him. TT became smug when someone questioned what he did.
So excited to see how these new guys build the team.

[dmac_bolt]

You don’t not take tight end because you don’t want to pay a salary. If it’s a pro bowler draft the pro bowler.

The theory proffered (which I consider a secondary issue to actually getting the best player thats the best fit for what you want to do) is that the difference between Rookie Salary and later Pro-Bowl player contract is much narrower for certain positions than others. Hence drafting a lower "value" position reduces the hypothetical savings they could get while said player is on his rookie contract. This delta directly drops to the overall team cap, hence teams are leaving cap money on the floor if they take a lower value position at a high pick

EX (don't fact check my numbers, they are ball parky for illustration only -someone that gives a fuck can go get real data)

TE: Pro bowl TE ~ $12M-$14M / season
WR: Pro bowl WR ~ $22-$24M / season
Rookie Contract = $6M/season

Draft a WR/Sign Pro Bowl TE = $18-$20M / season
Draft a TE/Sign Pro Bowl WR = $28-$30M / Season

Hence - drafting a pro bowl WR and signing the pro bowl vet TE has a $10M net greater value to team cap while he is under rookie contract vs a pro bowl TE. (fake numbers, again ...)

[OG619FrightninLightnin]

The WR market is heading to insanity level but worrying about a second contract as a potential issue for not drafting is splitting hairs.

[northerner]

The theory proffered (which I consider a secondary issue to actually getting the best player thats the best fit for what you want to do) is that the difference between Rookie Salary and later Pro-Bowl player contract is much narrower for certain positions than others. Hence drafting a lower "value" position reduces the hypothetical savings they could get while said player is on his rookie contract. This delta directly drops to the overall team cap, hence teams are leaving cap money on the floor if they take a lower value position at a high pick

EX (don't fact check my numbers, they are ball parky for illustration only -someone that gives a fuck can go get real data)

TE: Pro bowl TE ~ $12M-$14M / season
WR: Pro bowl WR ~ $22-$24M / season
Rookie Contract = $6M/season

Draft a WR/Sign Pro Bowl TE = $18-$20M / season
Draft a TE/Sign Pro Bowl WR = $28-$30M / Season

Hence - drafting a pro bowl WR and signing the pro bowl vet TE has a $10M net greater value to team cap while he is under rookie contract vs a pro bowl TE. (fake numbers, again ...)

true, and that is why a small trade back makes sense if we want bowers. it will knock down the rookie contract a bit (and bring us some an extra pick or two).

the accountant in me studies the rookie contract numbers, but the football fan with in me agrees with you that it is secondary. first priority: have great players that fit your team.

also, if you don't have a pro bowl WR, but you have a kick ass TE, the money starts to even out. the chiefs won with a great TE and butter finger WR's this year.

I doubt QJ is making the pro bowl anytime soon, so problem solved.

[Formula 21]

Does this sound like a Harbaugh guy? A true enforcer at S. Kinda the anti-Woods.

IMG_0162.jpg

[Ghost of Quacksaw]

Does this sound like a Harbaugh guy? A true enforcer at S. Kinda the anti-Woods.

IMG_0162.jpg

So does he weigh 200? Or 210?

[Topcat]

The WR market is heading to insanity level but worrying about a second contract as a potential issue for not drafting is splitting hairs.

So, at some point, it may be better to let the wideout go FA instead of signing them to that insane 2nd contract...and snag a nice 3rd round comp pick for him...Hortiz is real good at stockpiling those extra picks...

[Formula 21]

So does he weigh 200? Or 210?

Yep. Wait for the combine. Of course he’ll probably come in at 200 so he’s faster in the 40.

[Fleet 1]

NEWS AND NEAR NEWS
February 28, 2024 - 2:18 pm
Top QB Williams cool with Bears or wherever … One of the underlying questions regarding the 2024 draft was whether USC QB Caleb Williams, the consensus top-prospect overall for this year’s draft, might try and force a trade if he didn’t want to play for the team that had the #1 pick. Williams appears to have cleared that up when he said earlier today that he’d be ‘excited’ to play for the Bears if Chicago were to take him with that top pick and that he’d be just as excited to play for whatever team if the Bears opted to trade the pick.

February 27, 2024 - 10:08 pm
Where is JJ? And other combine notes … Actually JJ – aka JJ McCarthy, QB of the national champion Michigan Wolverines – is Indianapolis with the rest of the leading prospects for the 2024 draft at the NFL’s annual scouting combine. McCarthy, though, may be the most interesting prospect in Indianapolis; certainly, he is the most polarizing. Indeed, talk to people from one team he’s a legit top 10 guy with a grade just below that of the top 3 QBs in this year’s draft class. And that would bring him well into range for teams like the Giants and Atlanta who have the 6th and 8th picks respectively or others a little farther back should they be willing to trade up into the first 5 selections. There are other teams, though, and maybe the majority, that have McCarthy rated more in the 15-25 range where teams like Minnesota (11th pick, Denver (12th), Las Vegas (13th), Seattle (16th) and even Pittsburgh (20th). What makes the question really interesting, as well as important, at least for the 2024 draft, is where McCarthy ultimately rates will have a major bearing on how the first round plays out. Stay tuned!

One always hates to talk about players ‘rising’ because its never clear whether the player is actually moving up boards across the league, or whether he was always there and we the pundits are just starting to notice. And more than anyone heading to Indianapolis, Texas DT Byron Murphy fits that bill. Indeed, its wasn’t all that long ago that Murphy, a 6-1, 310 fire hydrant type with a great, wasn’t even considered to be the Longhorns highest rated interior defensive lineman beyond T’Vondre Sweat, but it now appears that Murphy just maybe the top-ranked DT overall with top 20 potential.

Arguably, the most interesting position in the 2024 draft these days, at least other than the QBs, just could be the corners. we reported in a post earlier this winter that Alabama’s Terrion Arnold and Quinyon Mitchell of Toledo appear to have emerged as the 1-2 prospects at the position. And nothing in that regard has changed except that it appears that Arnold is starting to get some top 10 consideration, while Mitchell may have moved (or whatever) into the 15-20 range off of a terrific week at the Senior Bowl. Throw in Ennis Rakestraw of Missouri, who also appears to now be considered to be a legit late first round candidate and all of a sudden people may start talking about the CB position, with the talent that already was at the top of the positional board, in the same breath as the QBs, WRs and OTs as being THE strength of the 2024 draft.

Every draft year it seems there are 1-2 players who emerge very late in the process as top 5-10 prospects. And while we’ll likely only find out when we find out, two players who strike us as having that potential are LSU WR Brian Thomas and Missouri DE Darius Robinson. In fact, Thomas, who is already considered to be the #4 WR in the 2024 class behind Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison, Rome Odunze of Washington and his Malik Nabers his LSU teammate, is a freakish big-play threat with the athletic skills to blow up the combine – he was also a star basketball player in high school – just started to scratch the surface this fall with the Tigers when he caught 68 passes for almost 1,200 TDs including a nation-leading 17 TD catches. For his part, Robinson who was arguably the best player overall at last month’s Senior Bowl, is a DT-sized 6-5, 285, but with DE agility which gives him the versatility to play outside on early downs where he can still get pressure on the pocket as well as kick inside on passing downs. And in a draft with no true elite big defensive lineman it won’t be a total shock if Robinson ultimately goes way earlier than the 25-30 range he is currently projected to go.

Speaking of Thomas and the top 3 WRs, it is interesting to note that of the latter three, Harrison and Nabers have announced they won’t be running at Saturday’s on-field testing session for QBs and receivers while Odunze will. On the surface one is tempted to wonder whether Odunze might think he needs to prove to NFL teams that he has the same kind of speed as the other two, especially given his rep as being a superior contested ball catcher. However, in truth, Odunze was a track star in high school with a 100M PB of 10.57 seconds which translates to roughly a 4.4 40. So maybe he’s just showing off! For the record, Malik reportedly was credited with a 4.44 40 time in high school with a 38-inch vertical, while Harrison was listed at 4.46, although he claims whenever he does run he’ll time close to 4.3. In fact, it is very possible, though, that Harrison doesn’t run at all prior to the draft. Indeed, while just about every other top prospect – and many who aren’t – are at a training camp somewhere across the country preparing for the combine, Harrison is back at Ohio State working almost exclusively with the WR coaches on his route-running and receiving skills.

February 27, 2024 - 4:35 pm
Bears, Pats top personnel execs talk draft … The most popular guy at the scouting combine in Indianapolis so far this week has been Chicago GM Ryan Poles, whose Bears have the #1 pick overall. In particular, there has been some buzz around the league of late that the Bears might consider trading from the top pick. However, Poles indicated at his combine presser earlier today that while a few teams have called to kick the tires about a possible deal he hasn’t had any talks that could be described as substantive. In fact, sources close to the Bears are indicating that the only real question in Chicago is not whether they hold onto the top pick and select USC QB Caleb Williams, but how long before the Bears pull the plug and trade incumbent starter Justin Fields. In his presser, Poles stressed that he needs to be “blown away” by a prospect to take a QB, but then went on to gush over Williams whom he called an artist and who has “pieces to his game that are similar” to what he saw in Patrick Mahomes when he evaluated him prior to the 2017 draft. Said Poles of Williams “he has a really good feel for the game … he has the big arm and can spin it from different angles… his pocket presence is really good. Poles did note that there are some aspects of Williams’ game that he needs to clean up along the lines of trying to do too much can cause you to hold the ball, but added that “at the same time, there’s a guy who’s not afraid to make big plays. You can see him understand his entire team and what he had to do to win games. There’s a lot to like in terms of talent.”

Poles also dropped more than a few hints that the Bears are preparing to move on from Fields saying that if he were to be traded that the team wanted to ‘do right’ by the player and make a move sooner rather than later. Translated: any team interested in acquiring Fields in a trade needs to get on the horn and get their bid in. Stay tuned.

At the same time, if there is a team that’s second to the Bears in being the most interesting out there its probably New England which has the #3 pick overall and an even greater need at QB than Chicago. And there has been some buzz out of New England that the Patriots would consider passing on the 3rd QB in the draft and either trade the pick or select a player like star Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison. No surprise, though that the Patriots’ director of scouting Eliot Wolf, the team’s de facto GM, didn’t give much away at his presser earlier today. All that Wolf said was that all options are on the table including a trade. However, he did admit its a good class noting that the one thing he really likes about the top guys ‘look like they’re really tough guys, which is obviously great at any position, but the quarterback position especially.” Wolf also confirmed that the Patriots would be meeting with the top 3 QBs this week this week including Williams, LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye of North Carolina. Interestingly, Wolf also indicated that the Patriots will be making major changes to their grading system by going to a more value oriented ranking. In the past under Bill Belichik, the Patriots tended to rate players largely on how well they fit their scheme.

[SAY OW 55]

Patriots meeting with all top Quarterbacks.