Official 2019 Pre Draft Discussion

[Formula 21]

AFC SOUTH - TENNESSEE TITANS

Every single player the Titans selected was ranked higher on the PFF draft board than where they were selected in the draft. Mississippi State defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons was a top-10 player on our board that they got at 19. We wouldn't have batted an eye if Ole Miss wideout A.J. Brown was actually the selection for the Titans at 19 and instead they secured our number two wide receiver with the 51st overall pick. They capped it off with one of the steals of the draft, nabbing Iowa safety Amani Hooker (PFF's 44th ranked player) midway through the fourth round at 116 overall.

Why pay for an expensive scouting staff when you can just use PFFs top 300?

[wu-dai clan]

He's a modern football player...

[beachcomber]

tillery was #11 on the list

Some scouts criticized Tillery's down-to-down consistency and coach-ability, but none questioned his talent.

for myself, the above is code for iconoclast individual, someone that is his own man, and.... in some circles translates to independent thinker, or thinks independently of coaches.

I think those guys oft turn out pretty well in the League, as long as peoples/their coaches are willing to let them be who they are.

http://www.rotoworld.com/college-football/nfl-draft/player/38352/jerry-tillery

[Formula 21]

Im so glad Dexter went early. He'll be a fa after 4 years as the league goes smaller and quicker.

[powderblueboy]

tillery was #11 on the list

[beachcomber]

Telesco has neglected the DL long enough, he needs to draft a DT tomorrow as there will be at least one quality one available where we pick.

eye like Steve's suggestion to play Dex @the 3T if we were to draft him.... (can we then sign Shelton to play NT alongside him ?? !!)

also like the idea of grading our scouts to see which ones have an eye for talent.... still suspect there is some AJ residue within our scouting ranks ??

[beachcomber]

if that's what I'm working w/my clusters look like this....

28) AJ Brown, Risner, Nasir, McCoy, McGary
60) Mack, Jachai, CGJ, Deionte, Cajuste

thinkin' the Oline is the safer pick, albeit Tom is on record as needing to shore up the LB corps ??

if it's me, am going Nasir then Cajuste....

and rumor has it that Az is holding off on Murray (will believe if and when it comes to pass as he is too true a fit for Kingsbury's scheme), and so top five looks like.... ??

Bosa/Az, Quinnen/SF, Oliver/NY, Murray (scuttlebutt is that Mayock & Co. is staying clear of QB round one.... don't think they should pass on Kyler tho), White/TB

[Fleet]

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RANKINGS THOR 500: NYSTROM'S BIG BOARD


BY THOR NYSTROM
Updated on April 24, 2019, 5:06 pm ET
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Rk	Name	Position	Ht	Wt	Comp	SPARQ	RAS
1	Quinnen Williams	DL1	6'3	303	Donald/McCoy	83.1	9.85
2	Josh Allen	EDGE1	6'5	262	Anthony Barr-plus	78	9.74
3	Ed Oliver	DL2	6'2	287	John Randle	99.5	9.87
4	T.J. Hockenson	TE1	6'5	251	Rob Gronkowski	85.4	9.21
5	Nick Bosa	EDGE2	6'4	266	Joey Bosa	74.8	9.43
6	Andre Dillard	OT1	6'5	315	Terron Armstead	96.9	9.81
7	Jonah Williams	OT2	6'4	302	Jake Matthews	17.7	5.51
8	Devin White	LB1	6'0	237	Myles Jack	93.3	9.33
9	Dwayne Haskins	QB1	6'3	231	Better Jameis	12.8	3.49
10	Brian Burns	EDGE4	6'5	249	Leonard Floyd	94.1	9.9
11	Jerry Tillery	DL3	6'4	295	DeForest Buckner	84.2	9.72
12	Devin Bush	LB2	5'11	234	Shaq Thompson	96.9	9.33
13	Montez Sweat	EDGE3	6'6	260	Danielle Hunter	97.1	9.9
14	Greedy Williams	CB1	6'2	185	Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie	68.6	8.5
15	Hakeem Butler	WR1	6'5	227	Plaxico Burress	80.7	9.48
16	Jawaan Taylor	OT3	6'5	312	Trent Williams	n/a	n/a
17	Jeffery Simmons	DL4	6'4	301	Ndamukong Suh	n/a	n/a
18	Garrett Bradbury	OC1	6'3	306	Max Unger	91.7	9.96
19	Clelin Ferrell	EDGE5	6'4	264	Derrick Morgan	n/a	n/a
20	Kyler Murray	QB2	5'10	207	Boom/bust Vick	n/a	n/a
21	Christian Wilkins	DL5	6'3	315	Kawaan Short	44.4	8.55
22	N'Keal Harry	WR2	6'2	228	Dez Bryant	75.4	8.42
23	Cody Ford	OT4	6'4	329	Brandon Brooks	35.6	6.33
24	Byron Murphy	CB2	5'11	189	Brent Grimes	46.1	6.44
25	Noah Fant	TE2	6'4	249	Jimmy Graham	98.4	9.89
26	Chris Lindstrom	OG1	6'4	308	Joel Bitonio	96.6	9.83
27	Dexter Lawrence	DL6	6'4	342	Linval Joseph	n/a	9.87
28	Julian Love	CB3	5'11	195	Ronde Barber	60.8	7.06
29	Marquise Brown	WR3	5'9	166	DeSean Jackson	n/a	n/a
30	A.J. Brown	WR4	6'0	226	JuJu Smith-Schuster	75.8	8.6
31	Rashan Gary	EDGE6	6'4	277	Robert Nkemdiche	94.9	9.95
32	Daniel Jones	QB3	6'5	221	Ryan Tannehill	78.8	8.1

Rk	Name	Position	Ht	Wt	Comp	SPARQ	RAS
33	Dalton Risner	OG2	6'6	312	Cody Whitehair	42.0	7.69
34	DreMont Jones	DL7	6'3	281	Nick Fairley	20.7	6.16
35	D.K. Metcalf	WR5	6'3	228	David Boston	99.0	9.66
36	David Long	CB4	5'11	196	Duke Dawson	91.2	9.22
37	Nasir Adderley	S1	6'0	206	Jessie Bates	65.0	7.11
38	Deandre Baker	CB5	5'11	193	Tre'Davious White	9.5	4.58
39	Jaylon Ferguson	EDGE7	6'4	256	Marcus Davenport	8.9	5.46
40	David Montgomery	RB1	5'10	222	Kareem Hunt	36.4	5.24
41	Chase Winovich	EDGE8	6'3	256	Markus Golden	67.8	8.63
42	Jace Sternberger	TE3	6'4	251	Greg Olsen	22.0	5.25
43	Erik McCoy	OC2	6'4	303	Pat Elflein	62.4	8.97
44	Blake Cashman	LB3	6'1	237	Jake Ryan	90.9	9.51
45	Justin Layne	CB6	6'2	192	Eric Rowe	87.0	8.97
46	Max Scharping	OT5	6'6	327	Ricky Wagner	n/a	8.83
47	Amani Hooker	S2	5'11	210	Kenny Vaccaro	84.5	9.09
48	Kaleb McGary	OT6	6'7	317	Cam Robinson	84.2	9.83
49	Rock Ya-Sin	CB7	6'0	192	Marlin Jackson	58.5	6.18
50	Darnell Savage Jr.	S3	5'11	198	Antoine Bethea	86.5	8.35
51	Juan Thornhill	S4	6'0	205	Marcus Williams	99.5	9.75
52	Deebo Samuel	WR6	5'11	214	Christian Kirk	76.3	7.92
53	Josh Jacobs	RB2	5'10	220	Off-brand Kamara	18.9	5.76
54	Elgton Jenkins	OC3	6'4	310	Billy Price	50.1	9.34
55	Zach Allen	DL8	6'4	281	Brett Keisel	54.2	5.17
56	Taylor Rapp	S5	6'0	208	Mike Brown	31.9	5.65
57	Will Grier	QB4	6'2	217	Case Keenum	57.8	7.22
58	Mack Wilson	LB4	6'1	240	C.J. Mosley	30.5	5.25
59	Anthony Nelson	EDGE9	6'7	271	Carl Nassib	78.6	9.49
60	Andy Isabella	WR7	5'9	188	Marquise Goodwin	50.6	7.03
61	Lonnie Johnson	CB8	6'2	213	Chris McCalister	92.6	9.4
62	Tytus Howard	OT7	6'5	322	Terron Armstead	28.8	6.34
63	Dru Samia	OG3	6'5	305	James Hurst	18.1	7.65
64	Chuma Edoga	OT8	6'3	308	Laremy Tunsil	n/a	7.79

Rk	Name	Position	Ht	Wt	Comp	SPARQ	RAS
65	Jalen Hurd	WR8	6'5	226	Terrelle Pryor	75.9	8.21
66	Miles Boykin	WR9	6'4	220	Kenny Golladay	99.9	9.94
67	Jahlani Tavai	LB5	6'2	250	Vontaze Burfict	6.8	4.14
68	Drew Lock	QB5	6'4	228	Blaine Gabbert	75.6	9.36
69	Devin Singletary	RB3	5'8	203	Devonta Freeman	7.8	1.74
70	Miles Sanders	RB4	5'11	211	Cadillac Williams	72.9	9.5
71	Jachai Polite	EDGE10	6'3	258	Damontre Moore	0.9	1.77
72	Sutton Smith	LB6	6'0	233	Joe Schobert	38.7	5.6
73	Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	S6	5'11	210	Nate Allen	66.1	7.86
74	Joejuan Williams	CB9	6'4	211	Ahkello Witherspoon	68.2	8.08
75	Deionte Thompson	S7	6'1	195	Tashaun Gipson	n/a	n/a
76	Parris Campbell	WR10	6'0	205	Big Curtis Samuel	99.3	9.77
77	Darrell Henderson	RB5	5'8	208	Tevin Coleman	66.9	7.74
78	Kelvin Harmon	WR11	6'2	221	Laquon Treadwell	20.7	4.92
79	Charles Omenihu	DL9	6'5	280	Romeo Okwara	50.2	6.22
80	Kahale Warring	TE4	6'5	252	Dallas Goedert	79.3	9.41
81	Greg Little	OT9	6'5	310	Greg Robinsom	36.3	3.63
82	Yodny Cajuste	OT10	6'5	312	Jermon Bushrod	n/a	n/a
83	Damien Harris	RB6	5'10	216	Frank Gore	45.5	6.43
84	Hjalte Froholdt	OG4	6'5	306	Isaac Seumalo	44.7	9.07
85	Johnathan Abram	S8	5'11	205	Keanu Neal	36.3	7.01
86	Drue Tranquill	LB7	6'2	234	Fred Warner	88.8	9.87
87	Sean Bunting	CB10	6'0	195	Eli Apple	94.7	9.65
88	Jamel Dean	CB11	6'1	206	Kevin King	97.6	9.93
89	J.J. Arcega-Whiteside	WR12	6'2	225	Eric Decker	33.7	6.17
90	Bobby Evans	OT11	6'4	312	Daryl Williams	45.2	7.36
91	Maxx Crosby	EDGE11	6'5	255	Jeremiah Attaochu	88.7	9.64
92	Trysten Hill	DL10	6'3	308	Brandon Dunn	81.7	8.99
93	D'Andre Walker	EDGE12	6'2	251	Dee Ford	n/a	n/a
94	Terry McLaurin	WR13	6'0	208	Nate Burleson	87.8	9.58
95	Stanley Morgan Jr.	WR14	6'0	202	Marqise Lee	81.5	8.62
96	Nate Davis	OG5	6'3	316	Ben Grubbs	23.8	6.17
97	Michael Deiter	OG6	6'5	309	Forrest Lamp	26.8	5.68
98	Irv Smith Jr.	TE5	6'2	242	Trey Burton	21.7	4.82
99	Sione Takitaki	LB8	6'1	238	Todd Davis	73.4	9.08
100	Ben Burr-Kirven	LB9	6'0	230	Ben Heeney	84.6	8.95
101	L.J. Collier	EDGE13	6'2	283	Robert Geathers	9.3	3.25
102	Trayvon Mullen	CB12	6'1	199	Kevin Johnson	48.3	7.48

[Lone Bolt]

For the Taylor Rapp supporters:
https://theathletic.com/940089/2019/...sus-big-board/

Thanks! Good stuff. Not a popular opinion, but would love it if we found a way to use him here...but our staff would have to believe that in addition to his quickness, and overall football abilities, which are top notch, that he actually was faster than his 40 time, and had enough range to man that single high...but I'm a Rapp homer, so maybe I'm dreaming here.
Good news though if we do like him...he might make it to #60.

[Xenos]

For the Taylor Rapp supporters:
https://theathletic.com/940089/2019/...sus-big-board/

Data and technology are rapidly making their mark on the football evaluation industry. The application of these numbers into scouting, usually called analytics, is itself fairly polarizing. But the NFL is broadly adopting many of these concepts into the scouting process.

The Vikings are adopting heuristics to improve traditional scouting by figuring out which of their scouts are the best at evaluating particular positions while the Patriots are somewhat famous for using data to improve their methods. We've been doing some data analysis of our own, releasing a big board of the top 300 players in the draft as determined by a consensus of over 40 draft analysts, which you can check out here.

How players perform on the field and in the workouts at their pro days gives us a lot of information to work with, so long as the data is treated carefully and within context. Primarily, traditional scouting provides the framework for evaluation, with data applied afterward to tweak conclusions.

Not only that, it's important to understand that the data doesn't tell us definitively which players are going to be good, only which players have better odds than their similarly-graded peers to break out and have an impact.

For example, the fact that TCU edge rusher Ben Banogu has a better analytical profile than Ohio State product Nick Bosa doesn't mean that Banogu is a better player than Bosa -- in all likelihood, Bosa will be a better player. Instead, it means that Banogu has better odds than other edge rushers that might be picked in the same area as he will be to perform at a high level.

This approach has helped teams identify gems outside of the first round: the Vikings used a combination of workout data and traditional scouting to identify Danielle Hunter, while the Falcons did the same to grab linebacker Foyesade Oluokun.

Below, we'll look at the biggest risers and fallers based on the best available data and isolate a new, analytics-driven top 100. When we update the consensus big board before the draft to include new boards and information, we'll also have a ranking for those players in the "analytics" big board.

All the players listed below will have production, age and athleticism scores listed with them, with those scores meant to be read like an IQ score, or OPS+ in baseball -- where 100 is average, and every 15 points represents one standard deviation (if you're unfamiliar with standard deviation, think of it each standard deviation as one tier).

The final score is not an average of the other three scores because those scores have a relationship with each other (productive players tend to be athletic), a final modifier was used to even out those relationships.

Risers

Taylor Rapp, S Washington

Overall Score	Productivity	Athleticism	Age
132.3	120.8	123.4	128.1

Safeties don't respond to data analysis as well as other positions, likely because they don't impact plays in ways that are statistically easy to measure. Earl Thomas forces quarterbacks to throw short and to the sidelines because of his range, but it doesn't always show up in his coverage statistics. Production is a good indicator of future success, it just isn't a great one.

The determinants of success at safety are very similar to linebacker and cornerback, which makes sense considering their job is a combination of those two roles. Good safeties tended to have a higher market share of solo tackles in college and higher ball hawk rates than similarly drafted counterparts.

Rapp stands out in this type of analysis. In coverage, he only allowed 0.13 yards per snap, the best of any safety in the top 300 of the consensus board. When accounting for the added value of denying touchdowns and forcing interceptions, he doesn't quite meet the adjusted yards value of Nasir Adderley or Jaquan Johnson, but he comes fairly close -- not having allowed a touchdown and generating two picks.

He also ranks in the top 70 percent in tackle production and the top 95 percent in avoiding missed tackles. His statistics show he's an elite coverage defender and a strong run defender.

Many came away from his pro day showing, where he ran a 4.78 40-yard dash, arguing that he's actually much more of a box safety than a free safety, despite a PFF coverage grade that led the PAC-12 and was one of the best in the FBS.

But that 40-yard dash time, while not insignificant, isn't as important, historically, as agility scores and explosion scores, not to mention overall size. Heavier safeties and agile safeties matter much more than faster safeties.

The fact that he ran a 3.99-second short shuttle, which ranks in the 98th percentile among safeties, helps bolster his score a lot more than the 40-yard dash hurts it. Beyond his agility times are his adequate explosion scores. He just clears the filters for broad jump, and my research shows that beyond 9'2" -- a fairly low threshold -- additional performance in the broad jump doesn't correlate to any more success.

[Panamamike]

I think the key word needs to be switched from "Developes" to Recruits. So no, those teams shouldnt b on there. They havent been that good the last ten years. At least not like the teams on that list.

Stanford was just better than par for the course when they had a better recruiting lately. UCLA hasnt been a big threat in years. Oregon back to average after Chip left and his recruits were gone a few years later.

Oregon got a great recruiter as their new HC. Fantastic class this year and should build a really strong future there.

[Boltjolt]

No USC, no UCLA, no Stanford, Washington, Oregon...interesting...

I think the key word needs to be switched from "Developes" to Recruits. So no, those teams shouldnt b on there. They havent been that good the last ten years. At least not like the teams on that list.

Stanford was just better than par for the course when they had a better recruiting lately. UCLA hasnt been a big threat in years. Oregon back to average after Chip left and his recruits were gone a few years later.