Originally posted by NoMoreChillies
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We had the ball at our 20 with only 47 seconds left.
If I counted correctly, to that point in the game, our RBs had run the ball 24 times and produced a gain of greater than 6 yards exactly 3 times. So, 87.5% of the time, such a call produced a gain of 6 yards or less with the likely outcome that the RB would be tackled in bounds causing the clock to continue to run. I would say that the 87.5% figure is fairly predictive of the likely outcome. The run actually was credited for 3 yards (I think it was originally credited for 4) and we averaged 3.5 yards running the ball the entire game. I submit that the result of that play call was right in the middle of the expected play outcomes as evidenced by the first 59 minutes of the game.
And our coaches should have known the result that happened was in the middle of the range of expected outcomes. A play call based upon the notion that the play might work for a big gain against a strong statistical likelihood to the contrary if everyone blocks perfectly, ignores the reality that on most plays the blocking does not produce a huge advantage for one team as the other team's players get paid to make that blocking not work.
Contrast the running play result with the two most likely outcomes of a passing play. To that point in the game, Herbert had completed more than 50% of his passes and the average completion was 14.3 yards. The next most likely outcome was an incomplete pass, which, while not useful at moving the ball, does have the positive effect when there is little time remaining of stopping the clock. Those results, completion and incompletion, accounted for about 90% of the dropbacks. I submit that both are better than the expected result for a running play in that situation.
While any play can produce an unexpectedly large gain at any point in the game, that does not make the play call a good play call from a strategy standpoint. Passing the ball in that situation is a statistically superior strategy based upon the expected outcomes of the play.
There is a reason why teams with intelligent coaches pass the ball almost exclusively when there is very little time left on the clock and the team needs to drive the ball 40-50 yards to get into FG range.
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