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Now that free agency and the draft have passed, I've been looking at the roster and trying to discern what can be expected from the 2015 Chargers. Here are a few things I've noticed:
The 2014 Chargers, per FootballOutsiders, were 31st in adjusted games lost. They lost 119 games to injury, which was 2nd only to the New York Giants. Injuries are largely a function of luck. It is quite unlikely that we miss anything like that amount of time in 2015. And health is an uncontrollable factor that has a huge impact on a season. The healthiest team in 2013 was the overachieving 11-5 Chiefs, while the most fortunate club in that regard last season was the 12-4 Denver Broncos. After being 28th in 2013 and 31st in 2014, the Chargers are due a luckier year. Considering they won 9 games in both of those unlucky campaigns, health would go a long way towards a 10+ win season.
Another uncontrollable factor in any given season is strength of schedule. The Chargers tied for the 4th toughest projected strength of schedule in 2014. Only the Rams, Broncos, and Raiders had a worse slate heading into 2014. 2015 is shaping up to be less arduous, as San Diego comes in right at 16th. Obviously projected strength of schedule doesn't always prove true in reality, but a step down in difficulty level can reasonably be expected. It's funny to me how much perception of any given team has to do with who they're playing. The AFC North in 2014 is a prime example. All four teams were in the PO conversation at one point or another, leading to the perception that it was one of the strongest divisions in football. It was rarely mentioned that they got to play BOTH the AFC and NFC south divisions, which were full of woeful clubs like the Bucs, Titans, and Jaguars. Again, considering we managed 9 wins last season against a tough schedule, 10+ is within reach.
Some other factors that warrant consideration include records in really tight games, point differential, and turnover margin. Teams that do extraordinarily well in those areas tend to see some regression towards the mean in the following season. The Chargers only played in three games in 2014 that were decided by less than a touchdown, and went 1-2 in those matchups. Their point differential was a dead even 0. And they were -5 in turnover margin. All of that to say, the 9 wins they managed were "honest." They weren't flukily squeaking out close wins and then losing big, or having a ton of balls bounce their way. None of that actually helps them in 2015, but I think it does establish their 9-7 record last year as a reliable starting point to work with for this coming season.
So without even looking at the roster, there are reasons to think that 2015 will be a step forward for the Bolts. With terrible luck in 2014 (in terms of both injury and schedule) they managed an honest to goodness 9 wins. So merely being healthy and playing some less difficult opponents should be good for at least some improvement record wise. But then when you actually do look at the roster, you find more reasons for optimism. The biggest one, in my opinion, is the promise of a vastly improved running game. Going from Rinehart to Franklin is easily the biggest jump in talent. At center, Watt won't have to be amazing to be a big improvement over the revolving door we had at the pivot in 2014. Health in general will give our line a boost. And then of course you have Gordon, who I didn't think was a mid first rounder in terms of value, but who is still an upgrade over what we had going on last season. Going from 3.4 YPC even to a league average 4.1 would pay huge dividends. It will take pressure off of Rivers and the passing attack, pull defenders closer to the LOS and into the box, keep the defense fresh, and help us sustain drives.
All things considered, I think there are a lot of reasons to believe that 2015 is the season that McCoy and Telesco's Chargers break into double digit wins and get back to the playoffs. Thoughts?
The 2014 Chargers, per FootballOutsiders, were 31st in adjusted games lost. They lost 119 games to injury, which was 2nd only to the New York Giants. Injuries are largely a function of luck. It is quite unlikely that we miss anything like that amount of time in 2015. And health is an uncontrollable factor that has a huge impact on a season. The healthiest team in 2013 was the overachieving 11-5 Chiefs, while the most fortunate club in that regard last season was the 12-4 Denver Broncos. After being 28th in 2013 and 31st in 2014, the Chargers are due a luckier year. Considering they won 9 games in both of those unlucky campaigns, health would go a long way towards a 10+ win season.
Another uncontrollable factor in any given season is strength of schedule. The Chargers tied for the 4th toughest projected strength of schedule in 2014. Only the Rams, Broncos, and Raiders had a worse slate heading into 2014. 2015 is shaping up to be less arduous, as San Diego comes in right at 16th. Obviously projected strength of schedule doesn't always prove true in reality, but a step down in difficulty level can reasonably be expected. It's funny to me how much perception of any given team has to do with who they're playing. The AFC North in 2014 is a prime example. All four teams were in the PO conversation at one point or another, leading to the perception that it was one of the strongest divisions in football. It was rarely mentioned that they got to play BOTH the AFC and NFC south divisions, which were full of woeful clubs like the Bucs, Titans, and Jaguars. Again, considering we managed 9 wins last season against a tough schedule, 10+ is within reach.
Some other factors that warrant consideration include records in really tight games, point differential, and turnover margin. Teams that do extraordinarily well in those areas tend to see some regression towards the mean in the following season. The Chargers only played in three games in 2014 that were decided by less than a touchdown, and went 1-2 in those matchups. Their point differential was a dead even 0. And they were -5 in turnover margin. All of that to say, the 9 wins they managed were "honest." They weren't flukily squeaking out close wins and then losing big, or having a ton of balls bounce their way. None of that actually helps them in 2015, but I think it does establish their 9-7 record last year as a reliable starting point to work with for this coming season.
So without even looking at the roster, there are reasons to think that 2015 will be a step forward for the Bolts. With terrible luck in 2014 (in terms of both injury and schedule) they managed an honest to goodness 9 wins. So merely being healthy and playing some less difficult opponents should be good for at least some improvement record wise. But then when you actually do look at the roster, you find more reasons for optimism. The biggest one, in my opinion, is the promise of a vastly improved running game. Going from Rinehart to Franklin is easily the biggest jump in talent. At center, Watt won't have to be amazing to be a big improvement over the revolving door we had at the pivot in 2014. Health in general will give our line a boost. And then of course you have Gordon, who I didn't think was a mid first rounder in terms of value, but who is still an upgrade over what we had going on last season. Going from 3.4 YPC even to a league average 4.1 would pay huge dividends. It will take pressure off of Rivers and the passing attack, pull defenders closer to the LOS and into the box, keep the defense fresh, and help us sustain drives.
All things considered, I think there are a lot of reasons to believe that 2015 is the season that McCoy and Telesco's Chargers break into double digit wins and get back to the playoffs. Thoughts?
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