Play Calling

[Critty]

I get that the OP here is not using the term "deep passes" in the sense that I have considered them even after referencing my desire for bombs in his first post. That is my point exactly, clueless one. That is why the videos do not apply at all. He and I are not talking about the same kind of plays. Get it?!

Further, if you have eyes, then you should have been able to see Herbert looking to other receivers on the Guyton crossing pattern. When I say "primary read", I generally mean where Herbert is looking first as a potential target, not where Herbert is not looking at all.

Fact: There are (bomb) routes in Chili clips.

And to address your clueless and foolish Herbert eyes take.
If you were the safety JH10 would have you out of position all the time. Game plan would be Chainy likes to get nosy and will easily bite on look offs.

It's mind boggling that you don't understand QBs look off the defense on purpose to hold or move the safety with the intention to hit the other reciever in the hole.

In case you need education about look off. It means instead of staring down the primary receiver the QB will look off the safety by looking away from his primary target to lure the safety away from his intended target. It's a technique that is intentionally used and often used when trying to hit big plays.

What you asking for is telegraphed deep passes where it's a go route and you see Herbert staring down Guyton. And you are questioning the OC and play call. Wow. LOL!

The fact I have to point out your massive error in attempting to use where Herbert looked 1st as any sort of proof that supports your take is the final nail in your coffin on this debate.
:tired:

[Topcat]

Herbert is almost never looking for the long pass. In terms of WRs, he looks almost exclusively for Allen and Williams.

I am not talking about long throws coming off of scrambles or 3rd or 4th reads. I am talking about designed bombs with the very deep pass as the primary read. I agree that the blocking has room for improvement.

To be very clear, I am looking for 3-4 attempted bombs per game.

I agree with this, generally. By mixing it up, EVERY GAME, we keep the D on their toes and makes it really tough for them to stack the box. Now, if they go with two deep safeties and drop the LB's back into coverage, then this should open up the short pass game. I would say at LEAST 2 attempted deep passes per game, with the bomb being the PRIMARY read, is reasonable. If they keep stacking the box, keep throwing it deep until they pull back. For a play like this, we would need max protect or at least keep RB in to block...in case the pressure is too much, or if the deep receiver is well covered, the hot read is a TE or RB in the flats. Folks, just because most of you, myself included, may disagree with Crusher on many of his other posts, don't discount all of them. He does come up with a lot of valid points, and this is one of them.

[FoutsFan]

Fact: There are (bomb) routes in Chili clips.

And to address your clueless and foolish Herbert eyes take.
If you were the safety JH10 would have you out of position all the time. Game plan would be Chainy likes to get nosy and will easily bite on look offs.

It's mind boggling that you don't understand QBs look off the defense on purpose to hold or move the safety with the intention to hit the other reciever in the hole.

In case you need education about look off. It means instead of staring down the primary receiver the QB will look off the safety by looking away from his primary target to lure the safety away from his intended target. It's a technique that is intentionally used and often used when trying to hit big plays.

What you asking for is telegraphed deep passes where it's a go route and you see Herbert staring down Guyton. And you are questioning the OC and play call. Wow. LOL!

The fact I have to point out your massive error in attempting to use where Herbert looked 1st as any sort of proof that supports your take is the final nail in your coffin on this debate.
:tired:

What is interesting with that is you have to consciously mix it up. I remember on a couple of occasions helping the D coordinator scout the opposing QB and we found a QB that looked the opposite way every time, so it was in actuality the same as staring down a WR.

You can also mix it up like I would stare down a receiver for a couple plays in a row just to set up a look off on a specific route a few plays later. It is the same as cadence. Its all a cat and mouse game really.

[Rugger05]

Popper had a good breakdown on the play calling for the Bengals game. Here it is:

In a 41-22 win over the Bengals on Sunday, the Chargers unlocked Justin Herbert’s rocket-launcher arm for the first time since Week 5 against the Browns.

Herbert set a career high with five completions on throws of 20 or more air yards, according to TruMedia. He tied a career and season high with eight attempts of 20 or more air yards. He also set a season high with 10.74 air yards per pass attempt.

The Chargers drove the ball down the field, and that was the primary reason they were able to both build a 24-0 lead and finish the game with 17 straight points.

What changed?

A lot had to do with how the Bengals play defensively. Cincinnati is one of the most nickel-heavy teams in the league. It has played the eighth-highest rate of five-defensive back packages of any team in football. Its nickel corner Mike Hilton is a stout and physical run defender, and that allows it to stay in these packages more often, even when opposing offenses bring out heavier personnel. The Bengals have been solid stopping the run. They are ranked 11th in rush defense DVOA, Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric.

There is a flip side of this, though. Because the Bengals have smaller players on the field, they are forced to use more players in the run front. They will often have seven or eight players in the box to defend the run. The seventh player is typically Hilton, and the eighth player is typically a safety, either strong safety Vonn Bell or free safety Jessie Bates. This strategy, of course, leaves fewer players in coverage and leads to a lot of single-high safety looks. The Chargers saw that as a weakness to exploit, and they attacked that weakness with deep shots to their bigger receivers out of play action. Herbert went 12-of-16 passing for 221 yards and two touchdowns with an average depth of target of 13.8 yards on play action in the game, according to Pro Football Focus.

Herbert’s 41-yard completion to Mike Williams on the Chargers’ opening possession of the game was a perfect example of this.

The Chargers went into their tempo offense after a 1-yard loss on first down. Herbert had thrown to Williams on a hot read when the Bengals brought a corner blitz, and Williams was dropped behind the line. As the Chargers set up for their second-and-11, you can see the Bengals had eight players in the box — four defensive linemen, two linebackers, Hilton (circled in yellow) and Bell (circled in red).



The offensive concept was a play-action shot to Williams, who was lined up on the outside left of the formation. He ran a corner route. Wide receiver Joshua Palmer, in the slot to the left, and tight end Stephen Anderson, on the right shoulder of right tackle Storm Norton, stayed in to protect. And Keenan Allen, lined up to the outside right, ran an over route.



As Herbert took the snap and faked the handoff to Austin Ekeler, it is clear the Bengals are in a single-high look, with Bates manning center field.



Herbert hit the bottom of his drop, and Williams was matched up with Bengals corner Chidobe Awuzie. Bates was still on top of Willaims.



But as the play progresses, Allen came into Bates’ field of vision on his over route. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said the Chargers had seen on tape that the Bengals, based on their defensive rules, would drive Bates down on over routes and leave the corner to cover the deep third.

That is exactly how the play unfolded. As you can see here, Bates attacked Allen to cut off that over route.



As Bates closed, Williams gained leverage on Awuzie to the outside on his corner route. Herbert saw it and delivered.





Williams shielded Awuzie. Herbert threw a perfect ball over the corner’s head. The Chargers scored a touchdown four plays later.

The Bengals adjusted as the game went on and started playing more two-high shells to take away the Chargers’ deep-field passing game. But the Chargers were still able to find success, largely because of Herbert’s otherworldly arm strength.

Later in the first half, Herbert connected with Jalen Guyton on a 44-yard touchdown on a first-down shot play. The Chargers, again, took advantage of the Bengals’ nickel package and Hilton’s tendency to play close to the line of scrimmage with play action.

Lombardi said the Chargers were actually hoping for another single-high safety look on this play, and they designed the play to attack that coverage shell. The Bengals showed two-high safeties pre-snap and stayed in that shell after Herbert took the shotgun snap.





The play design had Allen, lined up on the outside right, running a double move down the right sideline. Williams, lined up outside to the left, ran a dig. And Guyton, in the slot, ran a deep corner.



If the Bengals had played single high, the concept — at least on the whiteboard — would have forced the deep safety to drift toward Allen on the double move, and Guyton would have just needed to beat to nickel corner, Hilton, one-on-one for a touchdown.

The play unfolded differently from how Lombardi intended, but the result was the same.

As Herbert faked the shotgun handoff to Justin Jackson, Hilton had his eyes in the backfield, prepared to defend the run.



That gave Guyton a free release as Herbert sprinted out to the right to give himself time to throw and allow for Guyton’s route to develop.



Herbert got to the edge. Hilton was covering Jackson in the flat. Bell, circled in yellow, was over the top of Allen’s double move. That left Bates in one-on-one coverage on Guyton, and Eli Apple in one-on-one coverage on Williams.



As Herbert settled into his drop, Guyton cut to the open space on the outside, creating separation from Bates.



Herbert released, and Guyton was open.



This was a very, very long throw, though, across the field, and Herbert underthrew Guyton slightly. The throw still traveled 61.5 yards in the air, according to Next Gen Stats. Herbert has the arm strength to put that ball into the corner.

Still, Guyton won the jump ball with Bates for the touchdown. Bates was called for pass interference on the play.



“Brandon (Staley) always talks about (how) receivers catch those balls a lot more than DBs,” Lombardi said. “And so when you get a ball that far down the field, defensive backs are more likely to be in a panic mode than receivers. Receivers just do that a lot more. So when you get a chance to throw the ball deep one-on-one, more good things are going to happen than bad things. So whether it’s pass interference, a catch, it usually works out well.”

When the Chargers offense is clicking, this is what it looks like. There are so many factors that go into accessing the deep part of the field. What coverage system is the defense playing? What are they taking away and what are they giving up? How do the Chargers create a protection scheme that gives Herbert enough time to throw?

The Chargers also had excellent field position in this game thanks to good special-teams play and turnovers. Lombardi acknowledged that played a part in the more aggressive calls.

As Lombardi said, shot plays can be “feast or famine.” And when they do not work out, those calls can dig the offense a hole.

But this is the offense’s strength. There is no doubt about that. And leaning into this strength over the final stretch of the season could very well lead the Chargers to the postseason and beyond.

[Critty]

I agree with this, generally. By mixing it up, EVERY GAME, we keep the D on their toes and makes it really tough for them to stack the box. Now, if they go with two deep safeties and drop the LB's back into coverage, then this should open up the short pass game. I would say at LEAST 2 attempted deep passes per game, with the bomb being the PRIMARY read, is reasonable. For a play like this, we would need max protect...in case the pressure is too much, or if the deep receiver is well covered, the hot read is a TE or RB in the flats. Folks, just because most of you, myself included, may disagree with Crusher on many if his other posts, don't discount all of them. He does come up with a lot of valid points, and this is one of them.

Dude. He and you are asking for telegraphed deep pass?
Why would you want it to be clear he is primary and have Justin staring him down. Guess who else knows exactly what your doing. The defense.
And he will be double team every time.
I don't get the point of asking for obvious Go route the whole world will see coming.
:wtf:

There are deep shots design into play that Chili showed in the clips but execution wasn't very good. How more open do you want Guyton to be in the clip? Easy pitch and catch for huge chunk of yards but protection wasn't good.
Why refuse to see how execution is the key to succeed in getting these chunk plays? The pass to Williams vs Bengals was executed. All it takes is a missed block and it never happens in Benglas game. And the compliant of it not being dialed up in the game would have continued. If they have execution issues on deep shots vs Giants, the results grading will say why did they stop throwing deep, it worked vs Bengals. And Chili will show the tape that execution was the issue and Chainy will disregard it. Rinse and repeat game after game. And when it is executed and shows up, then Chainy will cry from the hilltops that he was exactly right. It's very predictable response depending on how the plays were executed that day.
And by doing only results grading Chainy gets to say....
Success of deep pass equals I was right.
Failure of deep pass equals I was right.
And thus he can never be wrong.
It's an imaginary world.

#CheckTheTape

[Critty]

What is interesting with that is you have to consciously mix it up. I remember on a couple of occasions helping the D coordinator scout the opposing QB and we found a QB that looked the opposite way every time, so it was in actuality the same as staring down a WR.

You can also mix it up like I would stare down a receiver for a couple plays in a row just to set up a look off on a specific route a few plays later. It is the same as cadence. Its all a cat and mouse game really.

Exactly. You absolutely have to mix it up and not have any obvious tells or they will get a bead on what your doing.

[chargeroo]

I appreciate your post regarding deep passes, but I look at it from the opposite side.

The issue with the lack of speed is that there will be a lack of separation. That makes the throw more dangerous in theory even with Williams being very good in the air.

I prefer speed because it can create big separation, which Guyton has shown us on multiple long completions to him over the past two seasons. The separation is what makes the pass safer. IMO, separation trumps contested catch ability.

I agree with what you are saying about spread formations.

I didn't disagree that speed is useful for throwing deep. On the contrary, I believe the saying "speed kills". I was merely pointing out that players with average speed can get deep. Just a week ago we saw Mdub catch a 41 yard pass and he was behind everyone - it wasn't speed that got him open, it was slick moves that left a DB trailing him.

I watch Tyreek Hill making great plays with his speed and I wish we had 3 or 4 like him, but the only fast WR we have is Guyton and he's prone to dropping passes. Nonetheless, I'd send him deep often. If he gets behind everyone, throw it to him. If he's covered one of the other receivers should be open.

[Steve]

This is a good read about the deep pass.

"But there are many other ways deep passing plays can fail. The throw might be off, or the defense might show the wrong coverage look, or the receiver can't shake the coverage, or the offensive line can't hold up in protection. A lot of plays that are designed to be deep passes never show up in the stat sheet as a deep pass attempt."


The Deep Pass: The Best Play in Football? - Inside The Pylon
https://insidethepylon.com

A couple of things of note

1). The Chargers certainly have a horrible run D, maybe an average pass D (on average), and terrible ST (getting better, but still not great). Maximizing offensive efficiency is not the best strategy in ISOLATION of our D and ST.

The play calling on offense needs to prop up the D and ST, not just get us in a track meet. A track meet is a good strategy only if you think your D can get a stop here and there, and while we do sometimes, we aren't at that point yet (not expecting it every week).

Efficiency analysis works for many areas of life, but NFL football, where there is a 60-minute time limit and limited opportunities make that sort of analysis limited in their applicability. IT works in generalities, but not in particular.

Besides a lot of the really big hurdles to a play being successful have already been cleared out when you do analysis like this, like plays being designed to go long, but broke down via pass protection usually get weeded out.

2). The data is collected from recent years. For the last 40 years or so, NFL teams passing games are designed around short throws that maximize competition %, and trying to get positive yards on every play. Defenses have reacted accordingly. That makes them more vulnerable to the longer throws. However, if you change the strategy on O, the D will react, and the longer throws are much lower percentage, meaning a lot more 3 and outs. There are dynamics in the game of football that efficiency analysis misses.

3). More than half (probably 2/3) of NFL teams have little or no pass rush. The stats collected are skewed toward the type of situations that are more likely for long passes to work, especially late in games, when both the DB and pass rushers are tired. But if you want to apply the conclusion generally, throwing long passes across the fill 60 minute period, then as an offense, you better have an answer for the pass rush if you are going to give those rushers time to get to the QB instead of throwing it quickly.

Lombardi doesn't throw long on a lot of plays because he is trying to protect the poor pass protection from Schofield and Norton. The D always has the chance to matchup their better rushers vs our right side OL. Because we play left and right OL, there is nothing we can do about it.

So, unless we want to see Herbert getting killed, that is the way it is going to be. There are times we aren't going to expose Herbert because we couldn't protect him. People were shocked we didn't throw downfeild vs the Ravens????? REally,

Quick passing is our best pass protection for our QB at times. Herbert is a better downfield thrower than short passer, but if he gets killed it won't matter. Too many bad things happen.

Fans are hoping we can overcome a very uneven roster. through playcalling and voodoo (or something)

I think the coaching staff has done a great job of overcoming Norton and Schofield, and even the rest of an offense that is not that great. We are trying to maximize Herbert to Allen and Williams and defenses are doing their best to stop that. Until we have the horses to make them pay, it is going to come down to that. Our D needs a lot of help as does our ST, and we are winning a lot of games for a team that is at best breaking even in 2 phases of the game. Coaching can only do so much, and we are 7-5 in large part because of the coaching, not in spite of it.

[Steve]

I didn't disagree that speed is useful for throwing deep. On the contrary, I believe the saying "speed kills". I was merely pointing out that players with average speed can get deep. Just a week ago we saw Mdub catch a 41 yard pass and he was behind everyone - it wasn't speed that got him open, it was slick moves that left a DB trailing him.

I watch Tyreek Hill making great plays with his speed and I wish we had 3 or 4 like him, but the only fast WR we have is Guyton and he's prone to dropping passes. Nonetheless, I'd send him deep often. If he gets behind everyone, throw it to him. If he's covered one of the other receivers should be open.

Speed only really helps when it is applied correctly. Guyton may be close behind Hill in speed, but Hill looks like the fastest player in the NFL because even when he is running routes and making hard cuts, he is still super fast. Guyton has to develop his route running and hands to make catches at all levels. Hill makes a lot of plays underneath and then uses his plays to stretch them into extra bases. Guyton needs to do the same if he is going to be the long-term #3.

Almost every DB in the league can stop a fast receiver if he is a one-trick pony. Guyton needs to develop some complementary routes underneath and that will make him a lot more dangerous. Then the DB has to respect the short routes, and he has a chance to get long, or hurt a D with a short catch and run.

[Steve]

....

As Lombardi said, shot plays can be “feast or famine.” And when they do not work out, those calls can dig the offense a hole.

But this is the offense’s strength. There is no doubt about that. And leaning into this strength over the final stretch of the season could very well lead the Chargers to the postseason and beyond.

It basically comes down to how well can we protect Herbert. Give him time and Herbert will pick most teams apart. he can do it at any distance we can put a receiver. But we have to protect him to give him time.

[Topcat]

"Brandon (Staley) always talks about (how) receivers catch those balls a lot more than DBs," Lombardi said. "And so when you get a ball that far down the field, defensive backs are more likely to be in a panic mode than receivers. Receivers just do that a lot more. So when you get a chance to throw the ball deep one-on-one, more good things are going to happen than bad things. So whether it's pass interference, a catch, it usually works out well."

When the Chargers offense is clicking, this is what it looks like. There are so many factors that go into accessing the deep part of the field. What coverage system is the defense playing? What are they taking away and what are they giving up? How do the Chargers create a protection scheme that gives Herbert enough time to throw?

The Chargers also had excellent field position in this game thanks to good special-teams play and turnovers. Lombardi acknowledged that played a part in the more aggressive calls.

As Lombardi said, shot plays can be "feast or famine." And when they do not work out, those calls can dig the offense a hole.

But this is the offense's strength. There is no doubt about that. And leaning into this strength over the final stretch of the season could very well lead the Chargers to the postseason and beyond.

Wow, great analysis and photos, Rugger! Looking forward to more of these!

[Topcat]

Dude. He and you are asking for telegraphed deep pass?
Why would you want it to be clear he is primary and have Justin staring him down. Guess who else knows exactly what your doing. The defense.
And he will be double team every time.
I don't get the point of asking for obvious Go route the whole world will see coming.
:wtf:

There are deep shots design into play that Chili showed in the clips but execution wasn't very good. How more open do you want Guyton to be in the clip? Easy pitch and catch for huge chunk of yards but protection wasn't good.
Why refuse to see how execution is the key to succeed in getting these chunk plays? The pass to Williams vs Bengals was executed. All it takes is a missed block and it never happens in Benglas game. And the compliant of it not being dialed up in the game would have continued. If they have execution issues on deep shots vs Giants, the results grading will say why did they stop throwing deep, it worked vs Bengals. And Chili will show the tape that execution was the issue and Chainy will disregard it. Rinse and repeat game after game. And when it is executed and shows up, then Chainy will cry from the hilltops that he was exactly right. It's very predictable response depending on how the plays were executed that day.
And by doing only results grading Chainy gets to say....
Success of deep pass equals I was right.
Failure of deep pass equals I was right.
And thus he can never be wrong.
It's an imaginary world.

#CheckTheTape

I never suggested staring down the primary read...all plays should naturally be disguised as much as possible, from the formation forward...so ideally, Herbie looks off a short route receiver and shortly afterwards looks deep to see how much separation there is...but I think the point is well taken that a balanced attack, including some deep shots mixed in with the short pass game, makes sense, depending on what the opposing D gives us...