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The "Go For It" Discussion Thread.

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  • The "Go For It" Discussion Thread.

    If you live by the sword you will die by the sword. What ye sow shall ye reap. After reading this I'm an resigned to stay, where is my sword? Let's reap on!

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.lat...fl%3f_amp=true
    Go Rivers!

  • #2
    • The 22 conversions helped extend drives that produced 11 touchdowns and three field goals for 86 points.
    • After the 12 failed attempts, the opposition scored six times — five field goals and one touchdown for 22 points.
    This will only get better as Herbert improves and the defence gets better...
    Go Rivers!

    Comment


    • #3
      Is this a draft thread??
      Our quarterback is a golden god.

      Comment


      • #4
        Sorry forgot I was in the draft forum! Maybe mods can move or delete if it redundant. I was wondering why it was so slow today!!! Lol I'm getting old.
        Go Rivers!

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Stinky Wizzleteats+ View Post
          • The 22 conversions helped extend drives that produced 11 touchdowns and three field goals for 86 points.
          • After the 12 failed attempts, the opposition scored six times — five field goals and one touchdown for 22 points.
          This will only get better as Herbert improves and the defence gets better...
          I don't know what the article says, since it is trying to get me to subscribe.

          There were several other drives (like the ones in KC), where the call was good, but the players failed to execute (drops). While you don't get credit for failed plays in the win loss columns, it is worth remembering the coaches can't play, so the strategy itself was sound, even more sound than 11 TD and 3 FG suggests.

          As far as what will make the progress better going forward, it will be any type of execution. If the running game gets better than that forces teams to play the run more, opening things up for Herbert. Conversely, as Herbert and his receivers continue to jell, it puts defenses in a dilemma, defend the run or the pass.

          The one thing against going for it on 4th down is there will be no element of surprise. I think the 1st few games, teams were wondering if Staley going for it was a change of pace thing, or every game strategy. For Staley is mostly a regular strategy. The catch is he doesn't go for it as much in games vs teams with bad offenses. if we can hold the other team, then we don't necessarily need to yield more out of possessions we have.

          Less is being made about how much we play at a faster tempo now. The idea is to run more plays. If you run 10 extra plays over the course of a game, and average say 7 yards per play, that is an extra 70 yards per game on O, which means 70 yards of positive field position, which translates to extra points. Of course, if you run more plays, it gives the other team more plays, so they get the same advantage.

          Comment


          • #6

            Brandon Staley’s fourth-down decisions were a seasonlong story around the Chargers.

            Only twice did the topic become raging, national debate, however.

            Not surprisingly, both occasions were the result of Staley’s decisions failing in overtime losses in front of national television audiences when the Chargers were playing the only NFL game happening at the time.


            On Dec. 16 during a Thursday night at home against Kansas City, Staley passed up three makeable field-goal attempts.

            Then, on Sunday night in Las Vegas, he went for it in the third quarter of a three-point game when the Chargers were at their 18-yard line.

            What we’re trying to do is give our team the best chance to win,” Staley said Wednesday. “I think we’ve been transparent about our process and owning the mistakes if they happen.”

            After the Chargers ended with a 9-8 record, here’s a closer look at fourth-and-Staley, just one of the themes that emerged during his rookie season as a head coach:
            • The Chargers’ offense started the season by converting its first seven fourth-down tries and finished by converting eight of its final nine.
            • Overall, the team was 22 of 34 (64.7%), that percentage tying New England for fourth-best in the NFL.
            • Only two teams — Detroit and Chicago — went for it more often on fourth down than the Chargers did. L.A.'s 22 conversions led the league.
            • Two other fourth downs turned into first downs when the Chargers drew defensive penalties. Since each, statistically, is categorized as a “no play,” it was not counted as a conversion by the offense
            • Converted fourth-quarter fourth downs were crucial in wins at Kansas City, against Cleveland and at Philadelphia. “A lot of the decisions that are being second-guessed,” Staley said, “some of those same decisions gave us a huge opportunity to be in the hunt.”
            • The 22 conversions helped extend drives that produced 11 touchdowns and three field goals for 86 points.
            • After the 12 failed attempts, the opposition scored six times — five field goals and one touchdown for 22 points.
            • Two of the conversions were Justin Herbert touchdown passes — to Keenan Allen at Cincinnati and to Joshua Palmer at Las Vegas.
            • Four conversions led to no points, those possessions instead ending in a punt, a turnover on downs, an interception and a fumble.
            • On the 12 failed conversions, Staley passed up reasonable field-goal attempts six times.

            “I know that I can improve,” he said. “But I feel like for my first year as an NFL head coach, I wouldn’t change a lot.”

            Anyone expecting Staley to re-evaluate his fourth-down approach in 2022 likely will be disappointed.

            “We’re going to do the best we can to make the best decisions that we feel like are going to give us the best chance to win,” he said. “And I don’t see that changing any time soon.”
            Go Rivers!

            Comment


            • #7
              Go for it all the time you want but not inside your 30 !

              Comment


              • #8
                As someone who uses probabilities every day in trading, I agree that using analytics as the basis of 'going for it' is the way to go. The problem with the plays that didn't work was the lousy execution or the the lousy play selection. Improved Talent and experience should increase the probability of success, if you have a sufficient number of tries, and the play caller could get better.

                Comment


                • #9
                  One friend I spoke with pointed out that those probabilities include garbage time plays against our favorite prevent defenses and that will throw the probability off.
                  Go Rivers!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Maniaque 6 View Post
                    Go for it all the time you want but not inside your 30 !
                    I do wonder if the 'model' that they are using for making decisions take into account the probability of the other team scoring, or eventually winning if the play fails. If "going for it" was a 90% chance of success, but was a 50% chance of losing if it failed because of the time left in the game and score, and field position, I may not make that call to go for it.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Stinky Wizzleteats+ View Post
                      One friend I spoke with pointed out that those probabilities include garbage time plays against our favorite prevent defenses and that will throw the probability off.
                      yep, garbage time yardage and scoring need to be weighted properly.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Stinky Wizzleteats+ View Post
                        [URL="[*]On the 12 failed conversions, Staley passed up reasonable field-goal attempts six times.[/LIST]
                        “I know that I can improve,” he said. “But I feel like for my first year as an NFL head coach, I wouldn’t change a lot.”

                        Anyone expecting Staley to re-evaluate his fourth-down approach in 2022 likely will be disappointed.

                        “We’re going to do the best we can to make the best decisions that we feel like are going to give us the best chance to win,” he said. “And I don’t see that changing any time soon.”
                        We'll see how this plays out. Next year is crucial for his, Telesco's and the Chargers future success....with another middling performance next year, i can't see things ironing themselves out.

                        One thing is true, he has no where to advance but forward: young head coaches making whole sale changes soon get a pink slip.

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