Thoughts On Cutting Keenan Allen?

[jamrock]

Keenan Allen is the 8th WR in the league and I consider his contract an issue. What did I miss? Please come the point.

The link in the article you quoted not the one you posted. Read a couple of paragraphs and the point will be clear

[DerwinBosa]

It might just be...
-that I watch more games
-more closely than you
-for many more years
-with plenty of information

And come to different conclusions,
plus post with different motives, than you do.

That is healthy for this board,
in both of our cases.

It might just be....
-this isn't the best way to address someone, as you did earlier....

You are not framing the argument in a manner that is most useful.

For a second there I wondered if you thought you were teaching a debate class.

[DerwinBosa]

I don't know what you mean by an "elite" receiver. It is like saying who is the "best". It all depends on whatever subjective criteria you pick. You can easily definite it in such a way as to prove your point either way. But the fact is that when Allen was down, the other receivers really didn't step up and play well. They were OK, but Allen is still our best receiver outside of Ekeler, and it's not really close. But if you have a hard-on for speed guys ... or really tall guys ... or super athletic guys ... or whatever category, then Allen isn't your guy. Fine, but when Allen wasn't on the field last year, the O was not nearly as good.

If you have ever watched much football, you know it is not about being whatever adjective you want. You need a roster full of good players. The 3rd WR guys we have are not at the level, and having 1 really good guy with no other help around him is not going to help. We could have the best WR in football (whatever that means) and all that is going to happen is that best or elite guy is going to get doubled and triple teamed on every play. How many times did Rivers face a Gates and Floyd BOTH getting double teamed and no where to go with the ball late in the game???? We need enough weapons to keep good defenses from taking away Herbert's options. And if they rush 4, that leave 7 defenders in coverage, so that is 2 double teams vs the 5 receviers. We need a minimum of a 3rd real weapon.

The Chargers need and more real weapons. I think the crew of 3rd WR guys is a good group, but one or more of them needs to step up and become a top-notch player. They caught too many of their passes on soft spots, or on manufactured plays. Our WR did not do a good job of challenging D, and winning the matchups. It's not all their fault. The rest of the O was not very good either. The OL struggled in pass protection. The RB had trouble with consistency. The TE were AWFUL, they didn't help in the running game, and were a liability in the running game.

The TE part was just a huge part to me. We didn't attack defenses in the middle and it gave teams a chance to clamp down on our WR. People bitched about Lombardi not sending WR deep, but he did. But by not attacking the middle of the field, teams took our WR away, and were able to force us to just check down. The lack of pass protection took away our crossing routes. The O was just not as good as it needed to be. And with a shitty D, that is not a good thing.

The other thing is what makes anyone think it is a great thing to try and transform the Chargers into a running team? We are going to be (probably) throwing huge amounts of money into our franchise QB to have him handoff? How is that a good use of our resources? That is just about the dumbest thing that I can think of.

The guy I think we need to try and find a way to get is Dalton Kincaid. While I haven't gotten through every TE in the draft, he is clearly the only one with Kelce/Goddert/Waller type of ability. There are plenty of inline TE in this years draft. This is actually the best inline TE crop I can remember, but none of them is going to put up the type of production that a Kelce or Gates type of Flex/slot TE is going to get. Kincaid is never going to be a great inline blocker, but he can attack the whole field.

Washington and Mayer (or a lot of the others) will probably be good NFL TE. But they are inline guys. The ceiling for inline types is a lot lower. Henry is an inline guy, so maybe he has 1 great super productive years, but he is never going to have that year in year out production against DB that Kelce and Gates had. We could use an inline guy who can block, and catch some shorter stuff and get a lot of boring, but useful yards. But they aren't going the challenge a D the way the flexed guys do and the only flexed TE in the draft is Kincaid.

Running team? No. More balanced? Absolutely, especially after spending the last two first-round picks on Slater and Zion, along with what might be a late-round gem in Salyer. To me it would be not "a good use of resources" to fail to build a running game after using two first-round picks on offensive linemen.

Patrick Mahomes threw only 27 passes for 182 yards in Sunday's Super Bowl victory. The Chiefs rushed for 158 yards on 26 carries, with the running backs getting 115 of those yards. Do you think anyone is Kansas City is whining, "We wasted all of this money on Patrick Mahomes! We're a passing team and need to make better use of our resources by throwing it more!" No.

I also think you overrate Allen tremendously. Why? I don't know. You seem to have a particular problem with the word "elite," but there is no way you can objectively say Allen, now or at any in point in his career, is or was on that level. In spite of what you may believe, I don't have a particular receiver I'm infatuated with. I just know it doesn't take a genius to figure out that Allen right now isn't even close to any type of elite receiver, whether it's Jamaar Chase, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, D.K. Metcalf, and I could go on and on and on. Losing Allen at this point isn't a big deal if you build a team the right way.

Yes, a team needs good players. It also needs to form the best way to win football games "If you have ever watched much football," as you say, you would have noticed that we lost in the Divisional Round to the Patriots in 2018, when Keenan was basically shut out of the game following the long touchdown pass from Rivers in the first quarter, and New England outrushed us 155-19. You would have also noticed that our running game was pretty much non-existent in the second half of our 27-7 blown lead to Jacksonville this past January, while Trevor Lawrence was bringing the Jaguars back with such "non-elite" pass-catchers as Even Engram, Zay Jones, Marvin Jones, and Christian Kirk. Final rushing tally: Jacksonville 117, Chargers 67. Was anyone in Jacksonville complaining that they gave the ball too much to Travis Etienne in that win and should have let Trevor Lawrence throw for more than 282 yards? Particularly after Etienne put them in winning field goal range with his 25-yard run on fourth down? No.

I have no issue with Telesco drafting a tight end in the first round. But, much more importantly, whether it's a first-, a mid-, or a late-round pick (such as the Chiefs' lucking into Pacheco), Telesco has to find a running back capable of carrying the load and closing out games in a way Ekeler hasn't proven he can..

[Bolt4Knob]

So...why was Palmer drafted ?
And...why does Slayer's contract have an out ?
Keenan and his agent understand this is business.
March 9, 2023.
I circled this calendar date long ago.

Popper mentioned the Chargers explored trade talks with Allen last year. But at the time, his dead cap number would have been 8.1m/ That number is now down to the 5.4 + 1.5m guaranteed dollars -- so its a dead cap number of 6.9 - cap savings of 14.8

Maybe Allen and his agent are surveying the market to see what trades are there or what he will get on the open market. Allen might be willing to take 8-10m cash from the Chargers to get cap savings close to him being released. Or maybe - there is a trade out there where he gets a bit more money.

[Bolt4Knob]

I think you have to look at the contract of the player and the intent of coach/GM.

The contract: KA's contract pays him $21.7 million next year. For a guy that has caught the 4th most passes over the last 5 years... this is still a decent deal for the team. The $6.9 million in dead cap (if he's cut) implies that they intend to keep him. Injury was a major disappointment. When he came back, he performed at a Pro Bowl rate (extrapolated... 127 receptions for 1400 yards and 8 TD's). That type of production is worth $21.7 million.

The intent: When the Chargers signed Mack, MW, and JCJ to big contracts last off-season... the intent was to make a Super Bowl push for the next 2 years (when Herbert was still on a rookie pay scale). Each and every one of those contracts were structured accordingly. Trading away a 2nd and a 6th round pick for Mack also suggests a short term run rather than a longer-term roster build. Injuries derailed the 2022 season. I doubt those unfortunate events will derail the initial intent for this next year. Cutting/trading KA inhibits this quest. I think they're still going for it. We're closer now than we've ever been.

Everyone is concerned about the 2023 cap... and rightly so. But re-structures to Bosa and MW (younger players) along with certain cuts to Feiler and Hopkins (replacements already in place) get us under the cap. If they decide to extend Vato (he deserves it) they can create even more space. Yes, the re-structures and extensions dig into the 2024 cap. But 2024 is the year you look to cutting players. Keenan's salary will be $25.8 million... but only $2.7 million dead cap. His contract is structured for cutting in 2024 (the year you need more cap room for Herbert re-sign)... not 2023. Khalil Mack's contract is structured similarly. $27.75 million in 2024 with $4.5 million in dead cap. That's $23.1 million savings and $23.25 million savings respectively.

I'm almost certain they're keeping KA, Mack, Bosa, and MW for 2023. We're just a much better team... and make a legitimate SB push next year. KA is a big part of that formula.

First - Allen, just because they owe him 1.5m doesn't mean they are going to pay him the other 17.5 he is projected to get. The dead cap figure is not changing. Its how they can best use the other funds

Second, you are missing out one big point - if you push out 45-50m this offseason - it totally negates the cap savings you list for Mack and Allen. The Chargers would be back to where they are now.

The Chargers have 47m of cap space next year on OTC -- you think, thats pretty good. Until you see its for 28 players so the Chargers need to add two draft classes, get up to 53 players and oh yea, Justin Herbers 5th year option is 35m unless they negotiate a longer term deal. So basically under water - so you push out 45m of cap -granted offset by KA and MW

Long term of the team - KA is gone in some way or fashiobn this year/ And if they can, Bosa is traded. Sets the Chargers up for both short term and long term success. Do not become the Saints or a team that cannot build around your QB for a one year push when you truly were not that close to winning a SuperBowl. The Chargers - even if they beat the Jags - were not going to beat the Chiefs. The Saints are in this merry go round of kicking the can and mortgaging their future because they are so leveraged, they have no choice.

[richpjr]

First - Allen, just because they owe him 1.5m doesn't mean they are going to pay him the other 17.5 he is projected to get. The dead cap figure is not changing. Its how they can best use the other funds

Second, you are missing out one big point - if you push out 45-50m this offseason - it totally negates the cap savings you list for Mack and Allen. The Chargers would be back to where they are now.

The Chargers have 47m of cap space next year on OTC -- you think, thats pretty good. Until you see its for 28 players so the Chargers need to add two draft classes, get up to 53 players and oh yea, Justin Herbers 5th year option is 35m unless they negotiate a longer term deal. So basically under water - so you push out 45m of cap -granted offset by KA and MW

Long term of the team - KA is gone in some way or fashiobn this year/ And if they can, Bosa is traded. Sets the Chargers up for both short term and long term success. Do not become the Saints or a team that cannot build around your QB for a one year push when you truly were not that close to winning a SuperBowl. The Chargers - even if they beat the Jags - were not going to beat the Chiefs. The Saints are in this merry go round of kicking the can and mortgaging their future because they are so leveraged, they have no choice.

I think Boltnut is dead on with why the contracts were structured the way they were. There relatively low cap hits in 2024 for the contracts of Mack, Bosa, Williams and Allen each of which would free up over $20 million apiece. There is plenty of room to restructure a couple of players this year and still have the ability to free up a ton of cap space next year if needed.

I truly have no idea on what will happen, but I still think that TT's comment about Allen gives a hint about what they are thinking. I guess we will see.

[Bolt4Knob]

I think Boltnut is dead on with why the contracts were structured the way they were. There relatively low cap hits in 2024 for the contracts of Mack, Bosa, Williams and Allen each of which would free up over $20 million apiece. There is plenty of room to restructure a couple of players this year and still have the ability to free up a ton of cap space next year if needed.

I truly have no idea on what will happen, but I still think that TT's comment about Allen gives a hint about what they are thinking. I guess we will see.

Very true -- the $40m question - what are the Chargers going to do?

Unchartered waters for the team to be sure

[wu-dai clan]

Very true -- the $40m question - what are the Chargers going to do?

Unchartered waters for the team to be sure

It is a big picture, long game question.

The choices are clear, as you have personally broken down the utter reality of the numbers.

TT says he would rather have good players than cap space. He loves MW, KA, Bosa-dudes he drafted-known quantities.

StaleyD brought in leaders-his types-especially Khalil.

It must be presumed that Tom & Brandon have gone over all contingencies and weighed the alternatives.

This is where their personal preference exceeds our logic.

I've got the popcorn. You bring the butter and sea salt.

[Bolt4Knob]

It is a big picture, long game question.

The choices are clear, as you have personally broken down the utter reality of the numbers.

TT says he would rather have good players than cap space. He loves MW, KA, Bosa-dudes he drafted-known quantities.

StaleyD brought in leaders-his types-especially Khalil.

It must be presumed that Tom & Brandon have gone over all contingencies and weighed the alternatives.

This is where their personal preference exceeds our logic.

I've got the popcorn. You bring the butter and sea salt.

The biggest reason I want the more conservative approach - which is seeing what kind of trade market there is for Bosa and the three options for Allen (Pay cut, if no, trade, if no release) - is because I don't trust Telesco if he is going scorch earth I am going to lose my job so I don't care about cap wise

I can see Telesco being - push the damn money out - I know what i have in Bosa and Allen. As his track record has shown - he is pretty average at drafting players. Andy Reid and Brett Veach figured out solutions to trading Tyreek Hill. Telesco - not sure he has it him so status quo works for him

I just keep looking at the numbers, looking at a team like the Saints and they took their one shot - dial it back. The Chargers can still be competitive without Bosa and Allen next year. Not only competitive - but a playoff team!

[gzubeck]

The biggest reason I want the more conservative approach - which is seeing what kind of trade market there is for Bosa and the three options for Allen (Pay cut, if no, trade, if no release) - is because I don't trust Telesco if he is going scorch earth I am going to lose my job so I don't care about cap wise

I can see Telesco being - push the damn money out - I know what i have in Bosa and Allen. As his track record has shown - he is pretty average at drafting players. Andy Reid and Brett Veach figured out solutions to trading Tyreek Hill. Telesco - not sure he has it him so status quo works for him

I just keep looking at the numbers, looking at a team like the Saints and they took their one shot - dial it back. The Chargers can still be competitive without Bosa and Allen next year. Not only competitive - but a playoff team!

Bite the bullet now so we can learn to adapt without them in the lineup. As far as I'm concerned both of these players owe the chargers a team friendly restructure or i will help them pack their bags.

[Bolt4Knob]

Bite the bullet now so we can learn to adapt without them in the lineup. As far as I'm concerned both of these players owe the chargers a team friendly restructure or i will help them pack their bags.

Bosa doesn't need to restructure - he gets paid 24m large no matter. Hence, the idea would be to trade him for value at the same time getting cap space

Allen is another story - only guaranteed 1.5m; team could save almost 15m in cap space

[gzubeck]

Bosa doesn't need to restructure - he gets paid 24m large no matter. Hence, the idea would be to trade him for value at the same time getting cap space

Allen is another story - only guaranteed 1.5m; team could save almost 15m in cap space

I know that...but does he want to play for a crappy team and still get paid?