Thoughts On Cutting Keenan Allen?

[powderblueboy]

Well, that's it. You claim the guy had one bad game in college and would be a waste of time developing in the NFL because doing so would destroy our passing game. I'm convinced!

Read what i actually wrote, comment on it, and then I'll get back to you.

Tired of indignant posters putting words in my mouth.

[Steve]

I don't think drafting Robinson in the first round will be at the expense of the passing game. If Keenan does depart, I think Telesco will replace him with a free agent who will cost less, and use a draft pick on a wide receiver. Mike Williams, whom I don't think gets enough credit on this board (until he gets injured in a meaningless regular-season game and is out for the playoffs), is more than fine as the #1. Finding a #2 shouldn't be that difficult. I think Williams and others will carry the load better than others here seem to expect in Moore's offense should Keenan depart. Moore went through this last season, after Amari Cooper left.

And I'm not saying Telesco has to draft Robinson in the first round. I just believe Robinson will be the best option in Round 1 over the players at other positions that others here believe are greater needs. Sure, I would much rather have a dominant pass-rusher or defensive tackle in the first round over a running back. I just don't want us to pass on a Josh Jacobs (24th overall pick), Jonathan Taylor (41st overall pick), or Derrick Henry (45th overall pick) and end up with a Jerry Tillery or Kenneth Murray.

Yes, there is a history of getting great running backs in later rounds. There's also our history of getting Joshua Kelley, Marion Grice, Gartrell Johnson, Isiah Spiller, and Justin Jackson at the position with mid-to-late round picks. There are also plenty of recent examples of good or great wide receivers being picked after the first round (D.K. Metcalf, A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, and our very own Keenan Allen). There's probably an even better history of good or great tight ends going later than the first round (Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, to name a few). So, passing on the best player available in the first round just because history shows you can find another good or great player at the same position later in the draft is pure stupidity.

I don't think Williams gets that much respect for his overall ability but if you watch him play, he simply is not anywhere near as good as Allen. He is a better deep threat, but that is all. He simply is not as good. He is a solid #2 WR, but I don't see how any objective person can think that he is going to elevate his game. Even if he does, the problem will be the Chargers need to add more weapons. As I keep mentioning, it is not a matter of simply replacing Allen, it is finding a replacement and a plus 1 weapon. It is not simply about replacing Allen. It is about making the roster competitive for a championship.

As far as Robinson being the best RB option, he is, there is little doubt about that. However, like most things is how much better is the best option vs the 2nd or 3rd. Typically, in the NFL or other major sports, the difference between the best or top cluster of players and the next notch is very little in terms of ability and even production but costs a ton in terms of roster building. Again, as you point out, while the bottom of the draft hasn't been good, neither is the top, since we have spent a lot of draft capital on Mathews and Gordon, and have little to show for either. In fact, Gordon was kind of a catch 22, since he was JUST productive enough he was looking for really big contract and yet didn't really have the production to back it up.

How about other recent 1st round picks. Najee Harris - decent, but has yet to average more than 4 yards per carry. Travis Etienne good year, but missed almost his entire rookie year. Edwards-Helaire has yet to rush for more than 900 yards in 3 seasons and his production has gone down, not up, which sort of suggest that his production was mostly a function of being such a high pick. Taylor is a great runner, but does very little as a receiver other than just avoid a loss, as exhibited by his 1st down totals as a receiver, plus he missed a lot of time this year with an injury. Taylor was also a 2nd round pick this year, not a 1st. Brakley and Penny have both missed a lot of time with injury, even though they looked like dominant players coming out of college. Fournette was up and down until he was cut by the jags, and McCaffery started good, but is also on his 2nd team. Elliott was pretty dominant but then tanked after his rookie deal. Todd Gurley, Mel, Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard ... the best top-ranked RB really was LevVeon Bell back for the Steelers, but again was a 2nd round guy. Historically, the way to go after RB is in bulk, which means lower rounds so you can take some risks.

I would agree about the TE. For the most part, Goedert and Jason Witten are two of the few high-ranked TE who paid off, and most of the others came out of nowhere. I do suggest this is the best class of TE I can recall seeing, and that goes back to when I started looking at the draft in the early 90's. This class seems to be mostly benfiting from the extra year in school due to covid.

I would argue our recent lack of ability among our RB draft picks is as much about the lack of OL ability. I can recall plenty of OK RB who had good production behind good OL, and plenty of guys who seemed to have some ability in college and did nothing behind bad OL. Good/great RB can make extra stuff happen, but I still don't think the RB by themselves can do anything, so would still argue adding another OL or edge or DT or S is probably a better use of our 1st round pick than a RB. If Robinson is available in the 2nd, it is probably a no-brainer, but I think he might not make it to 20, let alone the 2nd round.

The Cowboys really struggled last year because of the lack of offensive weapons too. They spent a lot of time checking down and not being able to force the ball downfield. Sound familiar???
I like Moore, but there is only so much a coach can compensate for. If we don't have enough weapons to attack defenses it won't matter if we are under the cap or not. We have some good young WR in Carter, Guyton and Palmer, but none of them can do more than flash great ability. Sure, you can point to a good play here or a good play there, but they can't do it consistently, like Allen and to a lesser degree Williams. We need another guy who is either that explosive to make the defenders sit back on their heels or guys who can attack so many areas of the field that the D doesn't know where the ball is going.

And those quality picks not spent on O could also go to give us a better D, which we need even if we are going to get to the quality of speed bump D.

[blueman]

I don't think Williams gets that much respect for his overall ability but if you watch him play, he simply is not anywhere near as good as Allen. He is a better deep threat, but that is all. He simply is not as good. He is a solid #2 WR, but I don't see how any objective person can think that he is going to elevate his game. Even if he does, the problem will be the Chargers need to add more weapons. As I keep mentioning, it is not a matter of simply replacing Allen, it is finding a replacement and a plus 1 weapon. It is not simply about replacing Allen. It is about making the roster competitive for a championship.

As far as Robinson being the best RB option, he is, there is little doubt about that. However, like most things is how much better is the best option vs the 2nd or 3rd. Typically, in the NFL or other major sports, the difference between the best or top cluster of players and the next notch is very little in terms of ability and even production but costs a ton in terms of roster building. Again, as you point out, while the bottom of the draft hasn't been good, neither is the top, since we have spent a lot of draft capital on Mathews and Gordon, and have little to show for either. In fact, Gordon was kind of a catch 22, since he was JUST productive enough he was looking for really big contract and yet didn't really have the production to back it up.

How about other recent 1st round picks. Najee Harris - decent, but has yet to average more than 4 yards per carry. Travis Etienne good year, but missed almost his entire rookie year. Edwards-Helaire has yet to rush for more than 900 yards in 3 seasons and his production has gone down, not up, which sort of suggest that his production was mostly a function of being such a high pick. Taylor is a great runner, but does very little as a receiver other than just avoid a loss, as exhibited by his 1st down totals as a receiver, plus he missed a lot of time this year with an injury. Taylor was also a 2nd round pick this year, not a 1st. Brakley and Penny have both missed a lot of time with injury, even though they looked like dominant players coming out of college. Fournette was up and down until he was cut by the jags, and McCaffery started good, but is also on his 2nd team. Elliott was pretty dominant but then tanked after his rookie deal. Todd Gurley, Mel, Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard ... the best top-ranked RB really was LevVeon Bell back for the Steelers, but again was a 2nd round guy. Historically, the way to go after RB is in bulk, which means lower rounds so you can take some risks.

I would agree about the TE. For the most part, Goedert and Jason Witten are two of the few high-ranked TE who paid off, and most of the others came out of nowhere. I do suggest this is the best class of TE I can recall seeing, and that goes back to when I started looking at the draft in the early 90's. This class seems to be mostly benfiting from the extra year in school due to covid.

I would argue our recent lack of ability among our RB draft picks is as much about the lack of OL ability. I can recall plenty of OK RB who had good production behind good OL, and plenty of guys who seemed to have some ability in college and did nothing behind bad OL. Good/great RB can make extra stuff happen, but I still don't think the RB by themselves can do anything, so would still argue adding another OL or edge or DT or S is probably a better use of our 1st round pick than a RB. If Robinson is available in the 2nd, it is probably a no-brainer, but I think he might not make it to 20, let alone the 2nd round.

The Cowboys really struggled last year because of the lack of offensive weapons too. They spent a lot of time checking down and not being able to force the ball downfield. Sound familiar???
I like Moore, but there is only so much a coach can compensate for. If we don't have enough weapons to attack defenses it won't matter if we are under the cap or not. We have some good young WR in Carter, Guyton and Palmer, but none of them can do more than flash great ability. Sure, you can point to a good play here or a good play there, but they can't do it consistently, like Allen and to a lesser degree Williams. We need another guy who is either that explosive to make the defenders sit back on their heels or guys who can attack so many areas of the field that the D doesn't know where the ball is going.

And those quality picks not spent on O could also go to give us a better D, which we need even if we are going to get to the quality of speed bump D.

Nope.

[Boltnut]

Steve nailed it.

[jamrock]

Whole lot of writing to say one simple thing: we need weapons on offense. Whether it’s a take it to house RB, Kelce type TE or speed or Deebo type WR we need somebody who is a threat. We don’t have that on the roster and that’s what we need.

And I don’t care a bit where we find it but word of caution, TT has shown no ability to find good players consistently outside of round 1. What other teams do shouldn’t matter to any of us. We don’t have those GMs/coaches. We have the white bread brigade running the show. It’s gotta be a no brainer for them

Staley hasn’t shown any ability to get a defense up to a mid level NFL so we better try to score 30+ if we can.

[Leslie Grossman]

Isaiah Pacheco 7th round pick was the man for the Chiefs.
Imagine if they had taken Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman over Edwards Helaire, would have been even better the past 3 seasons.
Must have a smaller payroll and more speed/talent at WR/TE to be a contender.

[wu-dai clan]

Bijan. Jahmyr.
Luke. Dalton.
Jordan. Jaxon. Jalin. Zay. Quentin.

That's nine possible first names.
Any one of which would energize this fanbase.

Even Johnny Forehead sees it.

RB-TE-WR.
There are excellent round two and three prospects at each of these positions.

Kellen says yes.

The Underwear Olympics in Indy will change your life.

[SuperCharged]

What's a little alarming to me early in this offseason is our fan base. Over the last few years it seems we were all fairly similar in our draft and offseason acquisitions opinions.

We seem to be all over the place at this time.

That is very disturbing to me.

[DerwinBosa]

How did the Cowboy offense do in the playoffs?

They couldn't run the ball against San Fran and were effectively dead in the water,
even though the Cowboy D played admirably.

Wow, so I guess we made a mistake hiring Kellen Moore, then.

Tony Pollard, the Cowboys' leading rusher, got only six carries because he broke his leg in the first half.. Dak Prescott completed 23 of 37 for 206 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions Dak's two picks were killers.

The following week Philadelphia ran for 148 yards and four touchdowns while throwing for only 121 yards and zero touchdowns. Should the Eagles have thrown it more?

San Francisco also beat us 22-16 when we ran the ball only 16 times for 51 yards, while Herbert threw 35 times for only 196 yards.Herbert had 22 of those rushing yards on five carries. Otherwise our running backs ran it 11 times for 29 yards.

The Atlanta Falcons beat the 49ers 28-14 while running 40 times for 148 yards and Marcus Mariota threw only 14 passes for 129 yards.

The Chiefs, a "passing team," even ran for 112 yards and three touchdowns against the 49ers. Mahomes had 423 yards and three touchdowns on 34 attempts (one less attempt than Herbert had against the 49ers).

[DerwinBosa]

Isaiah Pacheco 7th round pick was the man for the Chiefs.
Imagine if they had taken Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman over Edwards Helaire, would have been even better the past 3 seasons.
Must have a smaller payroll and more speed/talent at WR/TE to be a contender.

Jonathan Taylor went nine picks after Helaire. Not taking Taylor was the mistake, although I'm sure Reid and Veach aren't too broken up about it now.

[DerwinBosa]

Read what i actually wrote, comment on it, and then I'll get back to you.

Tired of indignant posters putting words in my mouth.

This is what you wrote: If you draft Bijan Robinson, you will have to spend more time preparing to run the football. You can't prepare the same way as last year and then just stick him in there and tell him to succeed (look at how well he did against Alabama).t would be a waste of a top draft pick if you didn't.

What is the relevance of this Alabama game to this conversation? And why would spending more time on building a better running game be such a terrible thing?

(look at how well he did against Alabama).

Saquon Barkley had only five 100-yard games out of 13 of Penn State's contests during his last collegiate season. What a waste he's been in the NFL.

[Florida fan]

Agree BPA at this point. Pre-draft decisions yet to be made will impact draft.
We had a #30 rushing offense with a RB that was NFL #2 in rushing TDs. IMO that was a coaching - play calling issue.
I would probably take Bijan based on his rare combination of qualities.
LT & Sproles redeux. (joke- not totally)

I’m sure LT would agree. Haha. Let’s just see if he would make through trading camp without an injury. Just basing it off a few past first rd pick.
he would definitely be welcomed help. Not sure at LT level.

Making the offense more balanced would definitely be key this year.