Thoughts On Cutting Keenan Allen?

[DerwinBosa]

I don't think Williams gets that much respect for his overall ability but if you watch him play, he simply is not anywhere near as good as Allen. He is a better deep threat, but that is all. He simply is not as good. He is a solid #2 WR, but I don't see how any objective person can think that he is going to elevate his game. Even if he does, the problem will be the Chargers need to add more weapons. As I keep mentioning, it is not a matter of simply replacing Allen, it is finding a replacement and a plus 1 weapon. It is not simply about replacing Allen. It is about making the roster competitive for a championship.

As far as Robinson being the best RB option, he is, there is little doubt about that. However, like most things is how much better is the best option vs the 2nd or 3rd. Typically, in the NFL or other major sports, the difference between the best or top cluster of players and the next notch is very little in terms of ability and even production but costs a ton in terms of roster building. Again, as you point out, while the bottom of the draft hasn't been good, neither is the top, since we have spent a lot of draft capital on Mathews and Gordon, and have little to show for either. In fact, Gordon was kind of a catch 22, since he was JUST productive enough he was looking for really big contract and yet didn't really have the production to back it up.

How about other recent 1st round picks. Najee Harris - decent, but has yet to average more than 4 yards per carry. Travis Etienne good year, but missed almost his entire rookie year. Edwards-Helaire has yet to rush for more than 900 yards in 3 seasons and his production has gone down, not up, which sort of suggest that his production was mostly a function of being such a high pick. Taylor is a great runner, but does very little as a receiver other than just avoid a loss, as exhibited by his 1st down totals as a receiver, plus he missed a lot of time this year with an injury. Taylor was also a 2nd round pick this year, not a 1st. Brakley and Penny have both missed a lot of time with injury, even though they looked like dominant players coming out of college. Fournette was up and down until he was cut by the jags, and McCaffery started good, but is also on his 2nd team. Elliott was pretty dominant but then tanked after his rookie deal. Todd Gurley, Mel, Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard ... the best top-ranked RB really was LevVeon Bell back for the Steelers, but again was a 2nd round guy. Historically, the way to go after RB is in bulk, which means lower rounds so you can take some risks.

I would agree about the TE. For the most part, Goedert and Jason Witten are two of the few high-ranked TE who paid off, and most of the others came out of nowhere. I do suggest this is the best class of TE I can recall seeing, and that goes back to when I started looking at the draft in the early 90's. This class seems to be mostly benfiting from the extra year in school due to covid.

I would argue our recent lack of ability among our RB draft picks is as much about the lack of OL ability. I can recall plenty of OK RB who had good production behind good OL, and plenty of guys who seemed to have some ability in college and did nothing behind bad OL. Good/great RB can make extra stuff happen, but I still don't think the RB by themselves can do anything, so would still argue adding another OL or edge or DT or S is probably a better use of our 1st round pick than a RB. If Robinson is available in the 2nd, it is probably a no-brainer, but I think he might not make it to 20, let alone the 2nd round.

The Cowboys really struggled last year because of the lack of offensive weapons too. They spent a lot of time checking down and not being able to force the ball downfield. Sound familiar???
I like Moore, but there is only so much a coach can compensate for. If we don't have enough weapons to attack defenses it won't matter if we are under the cap or not. We have some good young WR in Carter, Guyton and Palmer, but none of them can do more than flash great ability. Sure, you can point to a good play here or a good play there, but they can't do it consistently, like Allen and to a lesser degree Williams. We need another guy who is either that explosive to make the defenders sit back on their heels or guys who can attack so many areas of the field that the D doesn't know where the ball is going.

And those quality picks not spent on O could also go to give us a better D, which we need even if we are going to get to the quality of speed bump D.

I'm not usually in favor of drafting either a running back or a wide receiver in the first round. If you have your quarterback in place I believe in using premium picks on offensive and defensive linemen if there are legitimate talents at those positions. If we had the second overall pick in this draft I would be talking about Will Anderson and Jalen Carter and wouldn't even be thinking about Bijan Robinson. We are 21st, though, and I don't see us trading up too far to get a lineman on either side of the ball who is better at his position than Robinson.

You have given plenty of examples of running backs picked in the first round who didn't succeed as much as the ones who went later in the same draft. The same can be said about wide receivers. Kevin White was the seventh overall pick for the Chicago Bears in 2015. He has 28 receptions for 328 yards in 30 games in six seasons for three teams. That same draft the Miami Dolphins took Devante Parker 14th overall. He has one 1,000-yard season in eight years and has 369 receptions in his career. Tyler Lockett went in the third round of that draft and has 533 receptions for 7,100 yards and 54 touchdowns in eight seasons. Jamison Crowder went in the fourth round that year and has 415 receptions, more than Parker and White combined.

In 2017 Coery Davis went fifth, Mike Williams (whom you consider a #2 receiver) went seventh, and John Ross went ninth. Leonard Fournette and Chistrian McCaffrey went in the first round of that same draft, and each of them has more receptions than Williams, who's been the most productive of the three wide receivers. John Ross is currently out of the NFL.

In 2019 the Patriots took N'Keal Harry in the first round. Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, and D.K. Metcalf went in the second.

Yes, it would be nice to have a Jamaar Chase or Justin Jefferson. If you can convince me there's a wide receiver of that caliber when the Chargers pick in the first round of this draft I will be happy to see them take him over Bijan Robinson. Same if you can convince me there's a Travis Kelce (a third-round pick) or Rob Gronkowski (second-round pick) in the first round of this draft. Unfortunately Brock Bowers isn't draft-eligible, and I don't see any Jamaar Chase or Justin Jefferson being available at #21 in this draft, so I don't see the point in taking a tight end or wide receiver over Robinson.

As far as Ryan Mathews goes, I wanted Brandon Graham in that draft and was very disappointed we took Mathews. That same draft Earl Thomas went 14th, and I'm sure fans on this forum would have hated that pick because we already had Eric Weddle. Regardless, Mathews gained 1,255 yards in 2013, and we went to the postseason and won a playoff game with Keenan Allen as a rookie and Vincent Brown as our #2 receiver. We ran for 196 yards while Rivers threw only 16 passes in that playoff win over Cincinnati, with Ronnie Brown closing it out on a 58-yard touchdown run. This was the season Rivers was named Comeback Player of the Year, after throwing for 4,478 yards and 32 touchdowns against only 11 interceptions. BALANCE. The next season we missed the playoffs while rushing for only 1,367 yards as a team. Rivers got the crap beat out of him but still managed to throw for 4,286 yards and 31 touchdowns, but his interceptions increased to 18.

As far as Melvin Gordon goes he was just an idiot who overvalued himself. In 2018 he was actually excellent, running for 885 yards, 10 touchdowns, and a 5.1-yard average in 12 games. We went 12-4 while Rivers threw for 4,308 yards and 32 touchdowns against only 12 interceptions. BALANCE. Our defense shutting down Lamar Jackson won the playoff game in Baltimore. The next season Gordon stupidly turned down a $40 million contract from Telesco, held out into the regular season, and played like garbage. We went 5-11 and Rivers threw for 4,615 yards and 23 touchdowns while his interceptions rose to 20. The following year Rivers went to the Colts, who qualified for the playoffs while Jonathan Taylor ran for 1,169 yards and Rivers threw for 4,169 and 24 touchdowns against just 11 interceptions. Meanwhile Gordon stupidly accepted a lesser contract from the Broncos, but he did run for 986 yards, 4.6, and nine touchdowns in 2020 and 918 yards, eight touchdowns, and 4.5 in 2021. If he had done that with Justin Herbert and the Chargers during those years who knows what their record would have been?

Basically what I'm driving at is we're more successful when we have a legitimate running game with a true #! back. Bijan Robinson can be that guy. If you can convince me we can get a player equally as great at a position that typically lasts longer in the NFL (a running back usually has only six prime years) I'm all for it.

So, who are these players at other positions who would be better than Robinson?

[DerwinBosa]

Isaiah Pacheco 7th round pick was the man for the Chiefs.
Imagine if they had taken Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman over Edwards Helaire, would have been even better the past 3 seasons.
Must have a smaller payroll and more speed/talent at WR/TE to be a contender.

Also, none of the wide receivers or tight ends during their two Super Bowl-winning teams were picked in the first round by the Chiefs. They had one first-round wide receiver in 2019, Sammy Watkins (fourth overall by the Bills in 2014), who's played with five teams in nine seasons.

[blueman]

That last question is key. Someone would have to drop significantly.

[Lefty2SLO]

Whole lot of writing to say one simple thing: we need weapons on offense. Whether it’s a take it to house RB, Kelce type TE or speed or Deebo type WR we need somebody who is a threat. We don’t have that on the roster and that’s what we need.

And I don’t care a bit where we find it but word of caution, TT has shown no ability to find good players consistently outside of round 1. What other teams do shouldn’t matter to any of us. We don’t have those GMs/coaches. We have the white bread brigade running the show. It’s gotta be a no brainer for them

Staley hasn’t shown any ability to get a defense up to a mid level NFL so we better try to score 30+ if we can.

This. Our offense will need to carry the team next year.

[Steve]

Also, none of the wide receivers or tight ends during their two Super Bowl-winning teams were picked in the first round by the Chiefs. They had one first-round wide receiver in 2019, Sammy Watkins (fourth overall by the Bills in 2014), who's played with five teams in nine seasons.

John Ross (who was not active at all during the season) and Kadarius Toney were both former 1st round picks. Toney was fairly productive for a player picked up mid-season, and played a key role in the Jags game. Hardman, Sky Moore and JuJu are all 2nd round picks. Kelce is a 3rd, and his backups are both 5th rounders.

The point of targeting top draft picks at certain positions isn't if you COULD add a top player. The laws of probability will tell you that there is always a non-zero chance of finding a good player in a later round. It has never been a question of if it is possible or not. The bigger question is how LIKELY is it, and to a lesser degree, how effective will players taken then be vs compared to guys taken at another round. Most DT who are undrafted FA's are not going to play as well as John Randle, who was one of the greatest undrafted players of all time. Every year, NFL teams usually have several undrafted FA DT in camp, and most will never be much of anything. If you want someone with the speed to be a great pass rusher and has the pedigree, they are likely to be a high pick.

My point is if you are targeting a key player that you want to rely on, you might not want to rely too much on UDFA and late-round draft picks to be the pro bowl starters. You could get lucky and find someone who is a GOAT, but the odds are against it. If you are drafting at the top of the draft, and you find someone worthy of that pick, it is going to be a lot less surprising.

The other thing we could do is pay extra close attention to guys with flags, and trying to manage the "risk" associated with them. KC has done very well managing risk with players like that. Tyreek Hill was a 1st round talent they got in the 5th round because of his girlfriend beating ways. I don't think there was much of a surprise that he would turn out to be a great WR, IF he was able to avoid being suspended. Jared Allen was regarded by a few scouts but largely fell off of a few teams radars because of his drinking and DUIs.

[powderblueboy]

What's a little alarming to me early in this offseason is our fan base. Over the last few years it seems we were all fairly similar in our draft and offseason acquisitions opinions.

We seem to be all over the place at this time.

That is very disturbing to me.

Why? We won't be doing the drafting.

Is it that there just is no clear direction for this team to go?

on offense:

Assuming they resign Pipkens:

They need a backup guard/center: get him in the 3rd (although i do like Joe Tipmann - Chargers should be all over that guy)
They need a dynamic offensive weapon: probably a receiver.
They need to evaluate what they have in Spiller.

Personally, i think i can live with their tight ends and running backs ..... not that i wouldn't mind day three competition.
Two low hanging fruit type needs on offense.

on defense:

a bit trickier

Foremost, i think they need to add to the Dline (or outside linebackers): whether they can get someone to pressure/disrupt from the edge or interior shouldn't matter,
because its not easy to find either.

I like Bresee and Calijah Kancey is real interesting.
The little i've seen of Mazi Smith left me underwhelmed: reminded me of a less athletic/explosive, bit more technically sound Jordan Davis..... no thank you

Staley can't possibly screw up a penetrating stud on the interior; he's quite capable of screwing up a db.

People have been getting quality corners in the 4th/5th round lately.

In a perfect world:

#1. edge/interior penetrator
#2. explosive offensive weapon
#3. guard/center who can take over for Linsley soon, but can start at guard if needed.
#4. corner/safety
#5. speed
#6. speed
#7. speed

[powderblueboy]

Wow, so I guess we made a mistake hiring Kellen Moore, then.

Tony Pollard, the Cowboys' leading rusher, got only six carries because he broke his leg in the first half.. Dak Prescott completed 23 of 37 for 206 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions Dak's two picks were killers.

The following week Philadelphia ran for 148 yards and four touchdowns while throwing for only 121 yards and zero touchdowns. Should the Eagles have thrown it more?

San Francisco also beat us 22-16 when we ran the ball only 16 times for 51 yards, while Herbert threw 35 times for only 196 yards.Herbert had 22 of those rushing yards on five carries. Otherwise our running backs ran it 11 times for 29 yards.

The Atlanta Falcons beat the 49ers 28-14 while running 40 times for 148 yards and Marcus Mariota threw only 14 passes for 129 yards.

The Chiefs, a "passing team," even ran for 112 yards and three touchdowns against the 49ers. Mahomes had 423 yards and three touchdowns on 34 attempts (one less attempt than Herbert had against the 49ers).

You are wandering off topic.

The assertion made by Steve is that by drafting a rb in the first round, we will be moving more towards being a running team.
Seems like a fairly save assumption.

Maybe it is a good thing....no one looks at it from that point of view.
Somehow, this has created controversy.

Focus on running more, and you'll take away from the crispness of your passing attack: which wasn't all that crisp last year.
Don't focus on practicing run blocking schemes, and hand it off to a new back - don't expect a big difference in results.

With Peyton Manning, the Colts drafted Edgerin James and then when he retired, they drafted Joseph Addae and then another 1rst rounder (who ended up briefly on the Chargers).

Come to think of it, those teams generally underpeformed in the playoffs.

[Boltjolt]

John Ross (who was not active at all during the season) and Kadarius Toney were both former 1st round picks. Toney was fairly productive for a player picked up mid-season, and played a key role in the Jags game. Hardman, Sky Moore and JuJu are all 2nd round picks. Kelce is a 3rd, and his backups are both 5th rounders.

The point of targeting top draft picks at certain positions isn't if you COULD add a top player. The laws of probability will tell you that there is always a non-zero chance of finding a good player in a later round. It has never been a question of if it is possible or not. The bigger question is how LIKELY is it, and to a lesser degree, how effective will players taken then be vs compared to guys taken at another round. Most DT who are undrafted FA's are not going to play as well as John Randle, who was one of the greatest undrafted players of all time. Every year, NFL teams usually have several undrafted FA DT in camp, and most will never be much of anything. If you want someone with the speed to be a great pass rusher and has the pedigree, they are likely to be a high pick.

My point is if you are targeting a key player that you want to rely on, you might not want to rely too much on UDFA and late-round draft picks to be the pro bowl starters. You could get lucky and find someone who is a GOAT, but the odds are against it. If you are drafting at the top of the draft, and you find someone worthy of that pick, it is going to be a lot less surprising.

The other thing we could do is pay extra close attention to guys with flags, and trying to manage the "risk" associated with them. KC has done very well managing risk with players like that. Tyreek Hill was a 1st round talent they got in the 5th round because of his girlfriend beating ways. I don't think there was much of a surprise that he would turn out to be a great WR, IF he was able to avoid being suspended. Jared Allen was regarded by a few scouts but largely fell off of a few teams radars because of his drinking and DUIs.

They don't have John Ross, that is another guy, Justyn Ross I believe that was a UDFA.

[blueman]

You are wandering off topic.

The assertion made by Steve is that by drafting a rb in the first round, we will be moving more towards being a running team.
Seems like a fairly save assumption.

Maybe it is a good thing....no one looks at it from that point of view.
Somehow, this has created controversy.

Focus on running more, and you'll take away from the crispness of your passing attack: which wasn't all that crisp last year.
Don't focus on practicing run blocking schemes, and hand it off to a new back - don't expect a big difference in results.

With Peyton Manning, the Colts drafted Edgerin James and then when he retired, they drafted Joseph Addae and then another 1rst rounder (who ended up briefly on the Chargers).

Come to think of it, those teams generally underpeformed in the playoffs.

Not sure I agree with becoming a running team with Bijan. We’ve been fairly balanced with our attack the past couple years (unless behind in the 4th quarter, which skews everyone’s stats), adding a better RB and looking at play design, the exact same number of running plays could net far more yards. We had so many net zero yard - or net minus! - running plays, imagine if those were even a couple yards to the positive (not to mention the longer gains a RB like Gibbs can generate, Kelley as RB2 was okay but not really a threat to create big chunk running plays). Better blocking/play design would help all our RBs, sure. But would also allow a Bijan or Gibbs a lane to make a huge run, something our RBs 2-8 don’t do. We don’t need to call more running plays, we just need the plays we call to generate more yards. That’s better play design, better blocking, better running. Hopefully Moore fixes the first; I just don’t trust our average RBs (after Ekeler) will do much more than they have regardless of fixing the second. We need better talent at RB and on the OL.

[Steve]

They don't have John Ross, that is another guy, Justyn Ross I believe that was a UDFA.

According to PFF, they have both.

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[wu-dai clan]

What is missing in the discussion is the fact that Bijan, Jahmyr, and Tyjae are all RB--WR's.

Think of SF with CMC and Deebo.

Think of the Kellen Moore offense.

There will be mismatches.

[blueman]

What is missing in the discussion is the fact that Bijan, Jahmyr, and Tyjae are all RB--WR's.

Think of SF with CMC and Deebo.

Think of the Kellen Moore offense.

There will be mismatches.

Oh some of us are thinking about that, lol.