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Did anyone consider maybe this team just isn't all that talented? The only games this team has won in the last 2 years have been to teams with losing records. When they play winning teams the result is never in doubt.
If we go position by position I think it's obvious areas we thought were good are actual weaknesses and areas thought to be good enough are really bad. The cornerback group might be the worst in the NFL. I really thought M. Davis was solid and would take a leap towards all-pro status this year but he appears to have lost a step and is now below average to average at best. JC with his injury recovery is in the very lowest tier of starting NFL corners and Asante is consistently inconsistent. I would put our cornerback group at 3-14 to 7-10 talent level.
Inside linebacker and defensive tackles are among the worst in the NFL. Kendricks is old, slow, and already injured. Murray doesn't react well. There's not a single difference maker at DT they play with a 4 man rotation and there's no drop-off at all when the 2nd unit is out there. I'd put those 2 position groups at 3-14 talent level. They are above average at edge but really difficult to have a good defense when only 1 position group on the field is above average. Derwin is really the only consistently excellent defender we have.
Offensively, Slater is the only real standout on the line. The rest of the line is capable of being pretty good but inconsistent. I'd consider the entire line average.
The receivers are old and slow but as of now they're still getting maximum respect from defenses. If Herbert doesn't start hitting Mike W on some stuff down the field defenses will lose all respect for the deep passing game and if that happens it's gonna be really difficult to move the ball at all.
Tight end, running back, and QB are slightly above average. Herbert is good in the pocket but any advantage he has there is negated by his inability and unwillingness to extend plays. A QB in the modern NFL needs to be able to get out of sticky situations and create big 3rd down plays with his legs 5 or 6 times a game. Herbert does it once a game. Those other 4 or five 3rd down plays he doesn't create when the pocket collapses and receivers are covered are the difference between winning and losing. See yesterday - Herbert had 4 chances in the 4th quarter and OT to put the game away and couldn't get it done on 3rd down. Four big 3rd downs on 4 possessions led to 3 punts and a FG.
Player by player here's how I'd rate the talent on a 10 point scale.
Grading scale:
3: practice squad
4: below avg starter
5: NFL starter
6: above avg starter
7: very good starter
8: solid pro-bowler
9: elite player - no weaknesses - above avg in every category
Offense:
QB: Herbert 6
RB: Ekeler 7
WR: Allen 6 (I give him a 6 & not higher because he doesn't change the way defenses have to play)
WR: Williams 7 (really should be more like a 5 but I'm giving him a 7 for now because he still changes defenses & teams are still giving him safety help down the field)
TE: Everett 6 (trending toward a 7 if they keep utilizing him)
LT: Slater 9 (truly one of the very elite players in the NFL)
LG: Zion 4 (not worth the 1st round pick)
C: Linsley 7
RG: Salyer: 5 (what a pleasant surprise he's been)
RT: Pipkins: 5 (pretty good in the run game but still inconsistent in pass pro)
Avg score of offense: 5.63
Defense:
DT: Joseph-Day 4
DT: Austin Johnson 4
Edge: Mack 6 (still really really good against the run)
Edge: Bosa 7 (below avg off tackles still have no chance against him)
LB: Murray 4
LB: Kendricks 5
CB: Davis 4
CB: JC Jackson 3 (not recovered enough to be capable of consistently covering anybody)
CB: A. Samuel 5 (in coverage he's more like a 4 and tackles like a 3 but I give him a 5 because he does create turnovers)
S: Derwin 8
S: Gilman 4
Avg score of defense: 4.90
Average score of team 5.27
Projected record: ~8-9
If we go position by position I think it's obvious areas we thought were good are actual weaknesses and areas thought to be good enough are really bad. The cornerback group might be the worst in the NFL. I really thought M. Davis was solid and would take a leap towards all-pro status this year but he appears to have lost a step and is now below average to average at best. JC with his injury recovery is in the very lowest tier of starting NFL corners and Asante is consistently inconsistent. I would put our cornerback group at 3-14 to 7-10 talent level.
Inside linebacker and defensive tackles are among the worst in the NFL. Kendricks is old, slow, and already injured. Murray doesn't react well. There's not a single difference maker at DT they play with a 4 man rotation and there's no drop-off at all when the 2nd unit is out there. I'd put those 2 position groups at 3-14 talent level. They are above average at edge but really difficult to have a good defense when only 1 position group on the field is above average. Derwin is really the only consistently excellent defender we have.
Offensively, Slater is the only real standout on the line. The rest of the line is capable of being pretty good but inconsistent. I'd consider the entire line average.
The receivers are old and slow but as of now they're still getting maximum respect from defenses. If Herbert doesn't start hitting Mike W on some stuff down the field defenses will lose all respect for the deep passing game and if that happens it's gonna be really difficult to move the ball at all.
Tight end, running back, and QB are slightly above average. Herbert is good in the pocket but any advantage he has there is negated by his inability and unwillingness to extend plays. A QB in the modern NFL needs to be able to get out of sticky situations and create big 3rd down plays with his legs 5 or 6 times a game. Herbert does it once a game. Those other 4 or five 3rd down plays he doesn't create when the pocket collapses and receivers are covered are the difference between winning and losing. See yesterday - Herbert had 4 chances in the 4th quarter and OT to put the game away and couldn't get it done on 3rd down. Four big 3rd downs on 4 possessions led to 3 punts and a FG.
Player by player here's how I'd rate the talent on a 10 point scale.
Grading scale:
3: practice squad
4: below avg starter
5: NFL starter
6: above avg starter
7: very good starter
8: solid pro-bowler
9: elite player - no weaknesses - above avg in every category
Offense:
QB: Herbert 6
RB: Ekeler 7
WR: Allen 6 (I give him a 6 & not higher because he doesn't change the way defenses have to play)
WR: Williams 7 (really should be more like a 5 but I'm giving him a 7 for now because he still changes defenses & teams are still giving him safety help down the field)
TE: Everett 6 (trending toward a 7 if they keep utilizing him)
LT: Slater 9 (truly one of the very elite players in the NFL)
LG: Zion 4 (not worth the 1st round pick)
C: Linsley 7
RG: Salyer: 5 (what a pleasant surprise he's been)
RT: Pipkins: 5 (pretty good in the run game but still inconsistent in pass pro)
Avg score of offense: 5.63
Defense:
DT: Joseph-Day 4
DT: Austin Johnson 4
Edge: Mack 6 (still really really good against the run)
Edge: Bosa 7 (below avg off tackles still have no chance against him)
LB: Murray 4
LB: Kendricks 5
CB: Davis 4
CB: JC Jackson 3 (not recovered enough to be capable of consistently covering anybody)
CB: A. Samuel 5 (in coverage he's more like a 4 and tackles like a 3 but I give him a 5 because he does create turnovers)
S: Derwin 8
S: Gilman 4
Avg score of defense: 4.90
Average score of team 5.27
Projected record: ~8-9
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