2024 Season Record Prediction thread

[Boltjolt]

I have them in that 7-8 win range, maybe getting to 9 wins

That doesn't mean I am down on Harbaugh and Hortiz - not all

It just takes time

You do know that Harbaughs first season in SF after a 4 win season, he went 13-3?

I can see us being 11-12 win team. Sweep the turds, sweep the Broncos. Im not going to be high on Nix as a rookie,..... and split with KC. Assuming we are relativily healthy. I just think switch Harbaugh with Staley and Minter we win at least 4 more games last season. I think we beat Miami, Tenn, Dallas, Detroit and/ or maybe KC once.

[Kellyb72601]

That's the heart of it. He ran the #1 D with the Rams and didn't come close to doing the same here. Put another way, if our defense was top 5 in the NFL the last 3 years how different would the W/L record of the team have been? A LOT different. He'd still be here.

[dmac_bolt]

I think Staley was right on point with what he wanted to get done here and in any other era probably would been a great success, his problem was literally the entire NFL figured out the defense he was hired to run extremely quickly. There have been plenty of other dominant defensive systems that permeate throughout the league and generally it takes a while before they become obsolete. Buddy Ryan's 46 defense. Tony Dungy's cover 2. Pete Carroll's cover 3. All those defenses were dominant, won superbowls, and quickly other teams hired coordinators to run them. They generally have success for ~5 yrs or so before the defense becomes so widespread they're forced to change.

But the Fangio/Staley 2 high defense got figured out by the NFL EXTREMELY quickly. It happened the very first year he got here, so what was supposed to be a big time team strength became a horrific weakness from day 1. EVERY other coordinator that got hired to run that same defense also got quickly figured out and run right outta town. Ed Donatell in Minnesota, Clint Hurtt in Seattle, Joe Barry in Green Bay, Joe Woods in Cleveland. When year 3 for Staley got here the problem was they'd already spent 3 years investing considerable resources into personnel for THAT defense. At some point he realized the scheme was no longer working and had to change. He did try to change but the secondary didn't have the players to change, so you end up with what happened - a 60 point ass kicking by the 'Fade to emphatically put an end to it. But the heart of the failure for Staley was the rest of the NFL quickly making that defense obsolete.

Buddy and Carroll are both elite coaches in their time. But …

Buddy’s ‘85 Bears D was stacked with pro bowl and HOF players - they just stood opponents up at the LOS, punched them in the mouth and threw them backwards. It wasn’t fancy - it was his players wining every 1x1 hat on hat battle on the field.

Carroll’s Legion of Doom was stacked with All Pro and Pro Bowl players. Pro bowlers or better at all 3 levels: DL, LB, DB. Once those players started leaving, Gus’s “genius” was exposed as a coach who told pro bowl players to go play.

sometimes great players make good coaches into geniuses

But you’re right on the Fangio Defense. Staley’s derivative just made it harder and more to execute at the same time the league’s good offenses had solved it.

[Fouts2herbert]

That's the heart of it. He ran the #1 D with the Rams and didn't come close to doing the same here. Put another way, if our defense was top 5 in the NFL the last 3 years how different would the W/L record of the team have been? A LOT different. He'd still be here.

you're welcome to paint Staley as a victim of circumstance or whatever, please, the guy made out like a bandit, if anything his story should be a cautionary tale to the stupid ass owners all around the league to not prematurely jump on cheap new coaches that haven't shown they can do their thing for more than one year...if what you're saying is true then Staley's system had been exposed in year two of his stay as DC of the Rams, not only would the LAR have never won the Super Bowl but Brandon would've never gotten the Charger job to begin with...

I think you're revising what happened a bit here, the guy was simply not qualified to be a head coach in the NFL...we saw flashes but at the very least he just wasn't ready...the only reason he is in San Fran is because Shanahan is interested in finding out what weaknesses Staley found in his schemes, Daniels in Miami was able to figure it out on his own from one year to the next, am surprised Kyle made him assistant head coach although I bet they aren't paying full price on his salary as the Chargers still owed him 4 mil in 2024...

[blueman]

I have them in that 7-8 win range, maybe getting to 9 wins

That doesn't mean I am down on Harbaugh and Hortiz - not all

It just takes time

Time to what? Win games we shouldn’t lose? I kinda think we got that covered with JH2: Horitz 95% rebuilt this team, and Harbaugh is Harbaugh.

Not thinking this roster with this HC is gonna lose 7 one-score games, but that’s just me. And it puts us in the playoffs.

[Bolt4Knob]

You do know that Harbaughs first season in SF after a 4 win season, he went 13-3?

I can see us being 11-12 win team. Sweep the turds, sweep the Broncos. Im not going to be high on Nix as a rookie,..... and split with KC. Assuming we are relativily healthy. I just think switch Harbaugh with Staley and Minter we win at least 4 more games last season. I think we beat Miami, Tenn, Dallas, Detroit and/ or maybe KC once.

they won five games last season

so that would be winning six or seven games more than 2023

unless you are in some delusional reality where they actually won more than 5 games

[Bolt4Knob]

Time to what? Win games we shouldn’t lose? I kinda think we got that covered with JH2: Horitz 95% rebuilt this team, and Harbaugh is Harbaugh.

Not thinking this roster with this HC is gonna lose 7 one-score games, but that’s just me. And it puts us in the playoffs.

Do you want to put money on it?

[dmac_bolt]

they won five games last season

so that would be winning six or seven games more than 2023

unless you are in some delusional reality where they actually won more than 5 games

Thats correct, 11 or 12 is 6 or 7 more than 2023. And your point was …. ?

you instead could say they will win 1 or 2 more than 2022.

[dmac_bolt]

Do you want to put money on it?

I’ll bet you we win more than 8, whats your wager?

[Bolt4Knob]

I’ll bet you we win more than 8, whats your wager?

You have them at 14 - I have them at 9

$100 bucks

And I got 14 as you thought last year they would have been a 10 win team with Harbaugh and they would win 4 more games this year -
I have them winning four more games as well but I am starting at 5 which was their ACTUAL record. 5-12

It was in all the papers -even the paper that said Dewey beats Truman

[Velo]

The Chargers-Raiders line has moved to -3.5 Chargers for week 1.

Week 2 in Carolina, Draft Kings has the Chargers -5, another book has them -3.5.

Week 3 in Pitt, Draft Kings has the Chargers +2.5, which surprises me.

Week 4 at home v Chiefs, Draft Kings has the Chargers +3.

Week 6 in Denver, Draft Kings has the Chargers +1. Three other books have the Chargers +.5 to +1.

Week 7 in Ariz, no line yet.

Week 8 at home v Saints, Draft Kings has Chargers -3.

Week 9 in Clev, Draft Kings has the Chargers +3.

Week 10 at home v Tenn, Draft Kings has the Chargers -4.

Week 11 at home v Cinn, no line.

Week 12 at home v Ravens, no line.

Week 13 in Atlanta, Draft Kings has the Chargers +2.5

Week 14 in KC, Draft Kings has the Chargers +6.5

Week 15 at home v Bucs, Draft Kings has the Chargers -3.

Week 16 at home v Broncos, Draft Kings has the Chargers -3.5.

Week 17 in NE, no line.

Week 18 at home v Raiders, no line.

[dmac_bolt]

You have them at 14 - I have them at 9

$100 bucks

And I got 14 as you thought last year they would have been a 10 win team with Harbaugh and they would win 4 more games this year -
I have them winning four more games as well but I am starting at 5 which was their ACTUAL record. 5-12

It was in all the papers -even the paper that said Dewey beats Truman

I had them at 12, ive posted my range is from 10 to 14 a dozen times. and you have had them at 8 consistently, with an occasional 8 or 9, and you asked to bet.

Tell ya what - I’ll let you change your call to 9 from your longstanding more frequent 8 as I do like to encourage your growing enthusiasm and confidence in our team. and I’ll take your action at 9, 9 or less you win, 10 or more I win. You’re on. $100. I do zelle and paypal or I will accept gift certificate for authentic tacos. No Taco Bell shit, I’m from San Diego .

I hear Dewey did beat Truman. Vote and vote, count and count … age old scam