Shutdown Countdown:

[oneinchpunch]

32. Oakland Raiders

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/shutdown-countdown-oakland-raiders-probably-really-long-145940326.html

The Oakland Raiders had a quiet offseason, which is exactly what they needed.

They didn't fire their coach, they didn't make any crazy trades, they didn't sign any big-name free agents. They even moved down in the first round of the draft, a prudent move for general manager Reggie McKenzie.

The Raiders are bad, have been for most of the last decade, but at least they recognize there's a problem. No more mortgaging the future to get aging defensive linemen or quarterbacks who haven't been good since 2007.

McKenzie is building slowly, and it will take some time (not that he had much choice, with almost $50 million in dead money on the cap). This year will be tough for Oakland. But it's not about this year for the Raiders, for a change.

Is the roster better, worse or about the same?: Sadly, probably worse. Quarterback Carson Palmer, longtime punter Shane Lechler, receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, safety Michael Huff, defensive linemen Tommy Kelly, Matt Shaughnessy and Richard Seymour, tight end Brandon Myers and linebacker Philip Wheeler are gone. Some of those players were overpaid, overdrafted, past their prime – in some cases all of the above – but it's hard to say the Raiders are better off without all of them.

Best offseason acquisition: With an absurd amount of the cap being used on players no longer on the roster, there wasn't much Oakland could do. Linebacker Kevin Burnett had a good 2012 for the Dolphins, finishing fourth among 4-3 outside linebackers in Pro Football Focus' rankings, and the Raiders got him for a modest two-year deal worth $5.25 million. Those are the type of low-risk contracts the Raiders loaded up on this offseason. At least they didn't tie themselves into huge deals and have flexibility going forward.

Biggest hole on the roster: There are a lot of problem areas, so let's just pick the entire defensive front seven as a hole. LaMarr Houston is a really good end, but the rest is a project. It's hard to figure out where the pass rush will come from. Perhaps rookie linebacker Sio Moore plays well, Nick Roach thrives in a regular role, Burnett keeps playing well and the Raiders have some pieces to build around in the offseason.

Position in flux: The Raiders have a few options at quarterback, and they're hoping one hits. They signed Matt Flynn (who has put forth two great games in his two NRaiders QB Matt Flynn (USA Today Sports Images)FL starts but couldn't beat out Russell Wilson in Seattle last year), drafted intriguing rookie Tyler Wilson and still have the incredibly athletic Terrelle Pryor. This will be a legitimate camp battle. The best guess is Flynn gets a shot and fares reasonably well, but the team is still intrigued enough to give the talented Wilson a look so it can have some clarity on its quarterback situation going into next year's quarterback-rich draft.

Player you might not have heard of yet, but will soon: Someone has to catch balls for Oakland without Heyward-Bey and Myers around anymore. Rod Streater could take a step forward. He was raw as a pass catcher coming out of Temple but the undrafted rookie had a promising 2012, especially when he had games of 96, 100, 62 and 77 yards in Oakland's last five games.

Stat fact: The Raiders could have a mind-blowing nine new defensive starters (safety Tyvon Branch and Houston are the only holdovers guaranteed a job this year), including new safety Charles Woodson, who is back wearing the silver and black.

This team’s best-case scenario for this season is: Winning the Jadeveon Clowney sweepstakes. Bottoming out and getting the first pick in 2014 is fine, as long as the Raiders find some young players to build around during a rebuilding season. Figuring out the quarterback situation would be nice, too (and allow them to not be tempted by a quarterback like Teddy Bridgewater if once-in-a-generation end Clowney is on the board). Getting a good season out of the draft class, and especially a healthy year out of cornerback D.J. Hayden, the first-round rookie coming off a horrific accident and heart surgery, would be a positive.

And here’s the nightmare scenario: Owner Mark Davis freaks out when the Raiders are predictably bad. A shakeup now would be awful and set the franchise back. McKenzie needs time to build the roster. While Davis' firing of PR head Zak Gilbert might seem like a minor thing, Raiders fans better hope that isn't a red flag that Davis is going to have knee-jerk reactions about other things. It would also be bad if all three quarterbacks stink, Hayden isn't healthy (abdominal surgery in May is a red flag), receiver Denarius Moore continues to stagnate ... well, there are a lot of things that could go wrong, let's just say.

The player who could swing this team’s season one way or another: Darren McFadden is probably the most talented player on the roster. He has been great when healthy, but he has spent his NFL career masquerading as Mr. Glass. Even more alarming is that he wasn't very good when healthy last year. The Raiders scrapped the zone-blocking scheme that McFadden struggled in and are moving back to a power-running scheme. It's all moot if McFadden can't stay healthy, and the Raiders offense without McFadden could be frighteningly bad.

[Boltdog]

It's kinda funny that the Raiders are raving about their acquisitions of Burnett and Roach at LB, both of who formerly played with the Chargers. Nothing is really expected of the Raiders this year, so they could do fly ow and do better with such low expectations. Then again, probably not....

[oneinchpunch]

#24: San Diego Chargers


Shutdown Countdown: San Diego Chargers don’t offer a lot of reason for optimism


For a time last decade, the San Diego Chargers had arguably the most talented roster in football. They went to one AFC championship game and lost.

The Chargers' championship window has closed, and there's not much reason to be excited for their 2013 prospects.
Many of the team's stars from the mid-2000s are long gone or aging. The Chargers wasted a lot of time with the odd decision to hire and stick with Norv Turner, when it seemed team officials were the only ones who couldn't see that was not a good idea.

Turner is finally gone, after a third straight season with no playoff berth, replaced by former Broncosoffensive coordinator Mike McCoy.

Maybe McCoy provides a spark, quarterback Philip Rivers returns to being elite (he's only 31, he shouldn't be on the downside yet), and some other young players emerge. But there are a lot of troublesome holes on the roster.

Is the roster better, worse or about the same?: It isn't better. The Chargers lost talented guard Louis Vasquez to division rival Denver, didn't resign productive linebacker Takeo Spikes, lost once-productive pass rushers Antwan Barnes and Shaun Phillips, and didn't really add anyone of note. Running back Danny Woodhead is a solid role player, Max Starks and King Dunlap were needed additions to a terrible offensive line and perhaps 33-year-old Dwight Freeney can reverse his career slide, but the Chargers didn't sign anyone worth getting excited about.


Best offseason acquisition: Maybe, just maybe, Manti Te'o can still be a star. The linebacker went in the second round, and the Chargers were excited enough about taking him to trade up in the draft. Ignore how he got dominated by Alabama in the BCS Championship Game (hard, I know), and the whole fake girlfriend debacle (please, I beg you), and Te'o was a great college player. It's very possible his deficiencies are too much to overcome, but I'm willing to hold out hope he can be a tackling machine like he was at Notre Dame.

Biggest hole on the roster: The offensive line was dismal last season. Rivers is taking major steps back as a quarterback, but a big part of that is he has no time to throw. The Chargers gave up 49 sacks (tied for fourth worst in theNFL) and rushed for just 3.6 yards per attempt (tied for second worst). And they lost their best lineman, Vasquez. Dunlap and Starks might help – they can't make it worse, really – but the Chargers desperately need massive first-round pick D.J. Fluker to help right away.

Position in flux: The Chargers have one of the strangest receiving corps in the NFL. There's a lot of name players but they're all flawed. Danario Alexander is the best of the lot, but he's one of the most injury-prone players in the NFL. He was very good last year, and can be a legitimate No. 1 if he stays on the field. Rookie Keenan Allen is intriguing, Vincent Brown is enticing but coming off a season lost to injury and still has just 329 career yards, Robert Meachem can't be quite as big of a free-agent bust as he looked like last year (right?) and Malcom Floyd has put up almost identical, solid but unspectacular numbers each of the last four seasons. They'll all fight to establish a pecking order in training camp. Honestly, it's pretty clear the Chargers should have just paid Vincent Jackson.

Player you may not have heard of yet, but will soon: In his third season, Brown has a great opportunity. He has the offseason "He's looked great!" hype train moving in his favor, for whatever that's worth, and he is a talented receiver. He missed last season with a broken ankle, but could be a breakout player for San Diego.

Stat fact: It's hard to understate how surprisingly bad Rivers was last year. He was ranked 22nd among quarterbacks in Football Outsiders' DVOA, the opponent-adjusted per-play efficiency metric, with a minus-7.3 percent, behind Minnesota's Christian Ponder. And Pro Football Focus had him ranked 29th among quarterbacks with a score of minus-4.5, behind Jacksonville's Blaine Gabbert.

This team’s best-case scenario for this season is: That the change from Turner to McCoy is a huge boost. Rivers finds a few weapons among those receivers, Antonio Gates stays healthy and productive, and the team finds defensive stars to help out their stars, end Corey Liuget and safety Eric Weddle. The bottom of the division is weak, and the Broncos might be in for at least a little bit of regression, so maybe if things go right San Diego can find itself in the AFC West race.
And here’s the nightmare scenario: If Rivers' regression is real, this could get ugly. The defense isn't good enough to carry the team, and once Ryan Mathews gets hurt, the running game doesn't have much punch. And, a third straight average season from Rivers would force the Chargers to ask sobering questions about their quarterback who was once a MVP candidate.

The player who could swing this team’s season one way or another: Mathews is 25 years old, and just two years ago he had 1,091 yards with a nice 4.9-yard average, but San Diego's patience is running thin. When Turner was on the hot seat, he once decided he'd rather suffer through Jackie Battle running for two yards at a time than see Mathews on the field, so you know Mathews has made some people angry. Mathews has the talent to be a top back. But if he gets hurt again or struggles, the backups are Woodhead and Le'Ron McClain. That is not comforting.

[SDFan]

#24: San Diego Chargers


Shutdown Countdown: San Diego Chargers don’t offer a lot of reason for optimism


For a time last decade, the San Diego Chargers had arguably the most talented roster in football. They went to one AFC championship game and lost.

The Chargers' championship window has closed, and there's not much reason to be excited for their 2013 prospects.
Many of the team's stars from the mid-2000s are long gone or aging. The Chargers wasted a lot of time with the odd decision to hire and stick with Norv Turner, when it seemed team officials were the only ones who couldn't see that was not a good idea.

Turner is finally gone, after a third straight season with no playoff berth, replaced by former Broncosoffensive coordinator Mike McCoy.

Maybe McCoy provides a spark, quarterback Philip Rivers returns to being elite (he's only 31, he shouldn't be on the downside yet), and some other young players emerge. But there are a lot of troublesome holes on the roster.

Is the roster better, worse or about the same?: It isn't better. The Chargers lost talented guard Louis Vasquez to division rival Denver, didn't resign productive linebacker Takeo Spikes, lost once-productive pass rushers Antwan Barnes and Shaun Phillips, and didn't really add anyone of note. Running back Danny Woodhead is a solid role player, Max Starks and King Dunlap were needed additions to a terrible offensive line and perhaps 33-year-old Dwight Freeney can reverse his career slide, but the Chargers didn't sign anyone worth getting excited about.


Best offseason acquisition: Maybe, just maybe, Manti Te'o can still be a star. The linebacker went in the second round, and the Chargers were excited enough about taking him to trade up in the draft. Ignore how he got dominated by Alabama in the BCS Championship Game (hard, I know), and the whole fake girlfriend debacle (please, I beg you), and Te'o was a great college player. It's very possible his deficiencies are too much to overcome, but I'm willing to hold out hope he can be a tackling machine like he was at Notre Dame.

Biggest hole on the roster: The offensive line was dismal last season. Rivers is taking major steps back as a quarterback, but a big part of that is he has no time to throw. The Chargers gave up 49 sacks (tied for fourth worst in theNFL) and rushed for just 3.6 yards per attempt (tied for second worst). And they lost their best lineman, Vasquez. Dunlap and Starks might help – they can't make it worse, really – but the Chargers desperately need massive first-round pick D.J. Fluker to help right away.

Position in flux: The Chargers have one of the strangest receiving corps in the NFL. There's a lot of name players but they're all flawed. Danario Alexander is the best of the lot, but he's one of the most injury-prone players in the NFL. He was very good last year, and can be a legitimate No. 1 if he stays on the field. Rookie Keenan Allen is intriguing, Vincent Brown is enticing but coming off a season lost to injury and still has just 329 career yards, Robert Meachem can't be quite as big of a free-agent bust as he looked like last year (right?) and Malcom Floyd has put up almost identical, solid but unspectacular numbers each of the last four seasons. They'll all fight to establish a pecking order in training camp. Honestly, it's pretty clear the Chargers should have just paid Vincent Jackson.

Player you may not have heard of yet, but will soon: In his third season, Brown has a great opportunity. He has the offseason "He's looked great!" hype train moving in his favor, for whatever that's worth, and he is a talented receiver. He missed last season with a broken ankle, but could be a breakout player for San Diego.

Stat fact: It's hard to understate how surprisingly bad Rivers was last year. He was ranked 22nd among quarterbacks in Football Outsiders' DVOA, the opponent-adjusted per-play efficiency metric, with a minus-7.3 percent, behind Minnesota's Christian Ponder. And Pro Football Focus had him ranked 29th among quarterbacks with a score of minus-4.5, behind Jacksonville's Blaine Gabbert.

This team’s best-case scenario for this season is: That the change from Turner to McCoy is a huge boost. Rivers finds a few weapons among those receivers, Antonio Gates stays healthy and productive, and the team finds defensive stars to help out their stars, end Corey Liuget and safety Eric Weddle. The bottom of the division is weak, and the Broncos might be in for at least a little bit of regression, so maybe if things go right San Diego can find itself in the AFC West race.
And here’s the nightmare scenario: If Rivers' regression is real, this could get ugly. The defense isn't good enough to carry the team, and once Ryan Mathews gets hurt, the running game doesn't have much punch. And, a third straight average season from Rivers would force the Chargers to ask sobering questions about their quarterback who was once a MVP candidate.

The player who could swing this team’s season one way or another: Mathews is 25 years old, and just two years ago he had 1,091 yards with a nice 4.9-yard average, but San Diego's patience is running thin. When Turner was on the hot seat, he once decided he'd rather suffer through Jackie Battle running for two yards at a time than see Mathews on the field, so you know Mathews has made some people angry. Mathews has the talent to be a top back. But if he gets hurt again or struggles, the backups are Woodhead and Le'Ron McClain. That is not comforting.

wow. that is so full of untruths and inaccuracies you would think it was written by a blogger with an axe to grind against the Chargers. Stephanie Turner comes to mind.

[Beerman]

Didn't see any inaccuracies in the article to be honest. It's not a particularly good assessment though. They don't mention Cox at all. I did think their assessment of the WR situation was pretty spot on. There's talent, but a lot of uncertainty associated with that talent. Doesn't mention Reyes at all, who is potentially the most explosive player along the D line.

I agree with the best/worst case scenario being completely dependant on Rivers success this season.

Matthews having success this season, while remote, would also be a big boost to our bottom ranked rushing attack from last season.

Biggest hole on the roster being the O line is hard to dispute. They are going to need to gel quickly.

[Mister Hoarse]

I didn't find much wrong with it. "Productive" linebacker Takeo Spikes, maybe.

Even agree with the part that says "when Mathews gets hurt", not if.

[Beerman]

I didn't find much wrong with it. "Productive" linebacker Takeo Spikes, maybe.

Even agree with the part that says "when Mathews gets hurt", not if.

Problem with Takeo is that he was forced to play in coverage too often. He generally made the tackles, but didn't make the plays if you know what I mean. I hated the Te'o pick mainly because of all the crap that came with him. I can't deny though that if you would've asked me in December if he was the pick at 11, I would've been ecstatic.

[Mister Hoarse]

Problem with Takeo is that he was forced to play in coverage too often. He generally made the tackles, but didn't make the plays if you know what I mean. I hated the Te'o pick mainly because of all the crap that came with him. I can't deny though that if you would've asked me in December if he was the pick at 11, I would've been ecstatic.

Yep, my main concern is Pagano having the same plan for Teo to play in coverage more than he should. I did think he was a top 5 pick back in December as well, even as a 2 down ILB.

[Beerman]

Yep, my main concern is Pagano having the same plan for Teo to play in coverage more than he should. I did think he was a top 5 pick back in December as well, even as a 2 down ILB.

I really have no concerns about Te'o on the field. He's going to be a very solid ILB IMO. I've been very encouraged that he has come in and picked up the defense fairly quickly (per reports at least).

[Mister Hoarse]

Hope you're right, he seems like a very quick study. Coverage LBs are tough to find, tho.

[thelightningwill]

Outside the fear that Te'o might claim he's shagging Clary's imaginary talent, I don't get how our new linebacker's off-field issues mean anything to the Chargers. The Bolts are a football team, not a Dear Abby column.
Dear media: Go ahead and tell all your girly stories about the personal lives of actors and pop singers, but please stay away from football - one of the last remnants of manhood this country still holds in its grasp.

[oneinchpunch]

Outside the fear that Te'o might steal Clary's imaginary talent, I don't get how Te'o's off-field issues mean anything to the Chargers. The Bolts are a football team, not a Dear Abby column.

It's an off field distraction.