Shutdown Countdown:

[Mister Hoarse]

Agreed. I mean we pretty much all know what area's of the team are potential weaknesses. I expect to see us have some success this season, but I will understand if we underachieve. All I want to see is consistent improvement from our young players.

I expect us to have a strong defense. The offense's productivity will hinge on Matthews being able to stay healthy and the line being able to open up running lanes for him. If we can't pull our rushing rank up into the top 15, we will not have an effective passing game regardless of the lines play. It's hard to admit, but I actually think Matthews is the most important piece to our success this season. We have to be able to run the ball effectively.

This is why I could see us with a top 10 pick in 2014

[thelightningwill]

Agreed. I mean we pretty much all know what area's of the team are potential weaknesses. I expect to see us have some success this season, but I will understand if we underachieve. All I want to see is consistent improvement from our young players.

I expect us to have a strong defense. The offense's productivity will hinge on Matthews being able to stay healthy and the line being able to open up running lanes for him. If we can't pull our rushing rank up into the top 15, we will not have an effective passing game regardless of the lines play. It's hard to admit, but I actually think Matthews is the most important piece to our success this season. We have to be able to run the ball effectively.

I have more hope for the offense than the defense. On offense, we have a left tackle. Last year and for most of the year before, we didn't. Other than quarterback, left tackle is the most important position on offense. So, just by having one, possibly two, who are worlds better than the ones we had last year, is a big improvement and gives me hope. On offense, we also have new coaches, whom may or may not help us mitigate our problems on the offensive line.

On defense, we lost our starting nose tackle, which is the most important position on our defense. Yes, we got a better cornerback, but he seems to be injured a lot. I guess we can hope the guys who were backups last year will be better than the guys who they couldn't beat out for a job a year ago. And we can hope our rookies make us better. But the odds of those hopes coming true seem less than the hopes that a better left tackle will make our offense better.

[Steve]

We had a new NT start last year. 2 years ago it was Garay. Last year it was Franklin, for most of the year. so we have actually had a lot of turnover at NT, and it hasn't really hurt us as much as many might think. This year it is Thomas, who has played a fair amount the last 2 year, although some of that was at DE. And while he has been inconsistent, he has had stretches were he has been excellent, which is common with younger players. Plus there are a couple of vet guys who could fill in there if needed (Bannan and Hampton). It was time to give Thomas a shot, we really had to since this is a contract year. The CB and SS thing seems the bigger issues to me.

[thelightningwill]

We had a new NT start last year. 2 years ago it was Garay. Last year it was Franklin, for most of the year. so we have actually had a lot of turnover at NT, and it hasn't really hurt us as much as many might think. This year it is Thomas, who has played a fair amount the last 2 year, although some of that was at DE. And while he has been inconsistent, he has had stretches were he has been excellent, which is common with younger players. Plus there are a couple of vet guys who could fill in there if needed (Bannan and Hampton). It was time to give Thomas a shot, we really had to since this is a contract year. The CB and SS thing seems the bigger issues to me.

I wasn't talking about continuity. I was talking about an apparent downgrade at nose tackle.
Last year, Franklin was an upgrade over Garay.
Now Franklin is gone and Cam Thomas is his replacement. I'm not exactly sure who the replacement is for Thomas at backup nose tackle.
Unless Thomas makes some big improvement this year, he's not going to be as good as Aubrayo. And Thomas's replacement will not likely be as good as Thomas at backup.
To me, nose tackle is the most important position on defense. So a downgrade at nose tackle makes us worse than last year - even if we see improvements at other positions.

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

Bannan is still out there and is rumored to be interested.

[Mister Hoarse]

Bannan is still out there and is rumored to be interested.

Yeah, I chuckled at that too

[Steve]

I wasn't talking about continuity. I was talking about an apparent downgrade at nose tackle.
Last year, Franklin was an upgrade over Garay.
Now Franklin is gone and Cam Thomas is his replacement. I'm not exactly sure who the replacement is for Thomas at backup nose tackle.
Unless Thomas makes some big improvement this year, he's not going to be as good as Aubrayo. And Thomas's replacement will not likely be as good as Thomas at backup.
To me, nose tackle is the most important position on defense. So a downgrade at nose tackle makes us worse than last year - even if we see improvements at other positions.

I understand your point, but I don't really agree.

NT is an important spot, but not as much as it used to be. We just don't spend that much time in our base D anymore. Again our pass rush line is going to be on the field over 50% of the time, and if we actually play well on O, if could be more like 60%. You don't really need a backup NT, so long as the starter stays reasonably healthy, mostly because if the starter is healthy, he takes less then 50% of the snaps, and you don't need someone to rotate with him. And how many running teams will we face? You don't need a great NT if the teams you play don't run, and I am not sure that we will face that much of it. McFadden? Charles could be a problem, but will Reid use him? Denver is probably not going to feed the ball to their RB 30 times a game unless they get big leads in every game.

As far as Franklin, he was a solid player, but I am not sure he was that much better then Garay. Garay was a pretty good penetrating NT, and he attracted a lot of attention because of it. More then his actual production probably actually justified. Franklin was solid, protect the ILB type of guy, but he never made any plays, and he missed some games, which is a bit of a problem for a part time guy.

Thomas at the end of his 2nd year was our best front 7 player. Against Detroit that year, he had about as dominant a performance as any DL we have had since Jamal, and several other games around then he was very good. He just doesn't play that consistently, but that is common among younger players. You can't just give up on a guy, you need to give them a chance to play through it, and then see where they stand (and then maybe get rid of them). And since Thomas is at that point on his contract, I think we had to make him the starter no matter what. Maybe he goes down in flames, but he could easily be the best NT we have had in franchise history, with the possible exception of Jamal. But we need to know and the only way to find at the stage he is at is to throw him in and let him handle the starting job. Again, based on his past performances, he is either going to completely suck, or become a pretty dominant performer. NT is all about leverage, and when he plays low, he knocks C into the backfield, and when he doesn't they get under him and walk him around.

[SDFan]

Just put me down for not believing that just the elimination of Norv will mean we win more games this year. Personally, I would be quite surprised if we win as many this year as last. I have to think that you put much into the belief that Norv-gone = sunshine since you have said you bought season tix this year (I don't recall you coming to a single game last year) I will be quite interested in seeing where the blame goes when we start losing. Will it be for TT for not addressing the o-line, or will it be Bones for not doing enough with the talent he was given? Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if it is both.

So you are arguing that NOrv was the best HC for us and none of the problems on the team or losses were attributable to his actions and we should have kept him? The team was in a death spiral the last 3 years with NOrv running things and he HAD to be replaced just for their to be any HOPE things could get better. I don't see how McCoy can possibly field a team as consistently unmotivated and sloppy as NOrv did or be a worse Game Day coach. And changing the Team Dr and training staff can only help with the injury situation and was way overdue. Not only did I not buy tix the last 2 years, I could barely stand to listen on the radio and wouldn't waste my time watching them on TV if I detected another NOrv stinker early on. Now there's at least hope we can do better and I like what I see and hear so far of the new direction and I'm willing to give them a chance to win me over again with their play. I bought a couple tix for the opener and some more for the last game of season. How they play in between will determine how many more games I watch and blame aint part of the equation if things are moving in the right direction and they still lose some along the way as expected.

[thelightningwill]

I understand your point, but I don't really agree.

NT is an important spot, but not as much as it used to be. We just don't spend that much time in our base D anymore. Again our pass rush line is going to be on the field over 50% of the time, and if we actually play well on O, if could be more like 60%. You don't really need a backup NT, so long as the starter stays reasonably healthy, mostly because if the starter is healthy, he takes less then 50% of the snaps, and you don't need someone to rotate with him. And how many running teams will we face? You don't need a great NT if the teams you play don't run, and I am not sure that we will face that much of it. McFadden? Charles could be a problem, but will Reid use him? Denver is probably not going to feed the ball to their RB 30 times a game unless they get big leads in every game.

As far as Franklin, he was a solid player, but I am not sure he was that much better then Garay. Garay was a pretty good penetrating NT, and he attracted a lot of attention because of it. More then his actual production probably actually justified. Franklin was solid, protect the ILB type of guy, but he never made any plays, and he missed some games, which is a bit of a problem for a part time guy.

Thomas at the end of his 2nd year was our best front 7 player. Against Detroit that year, he had about as dominant a performance as any DL we have had since Jamal, and several other games around then he was very good. He just doesn't play that consistently, but that is common among younger players. You can't just give up on a guy, you need to give them a chance to play through it, and then see where they stand (and then maybe get rid of them). And since Thomas is at that point on his contract, I think we had to make him the starter no matter what. Maybe he goes down in flames, but he could easily be the best NT we have had in franchise history, with the possible exception of Jamal. But we need to know and the only way to find at the stage he is at is to throw him in and let him handle the starting job. Again, based on his past performances, he is either going to completely suck, or become a pretty dominant performer. NT is all about leverage, and when he plays low, he knocks C into the backfield, and when he doesn't they get under him and walk him around.

I hope you are right, and I am wrong. You apparently know more about the defensive formations than I do.
I thought Garay was excellent for us and saved our defense in 2010. Then the next year he looked old (not horrible, but he certainly wasn't what he was for us the year before.)
And I felt that Franklin was better than the 2011 version of Garay, thus making all the other guys around him better players. I thought our defense was worse when he wasn't on the field. You mention run defense as if that is all the nose tackle is good for. While the nose tackle does help out against the run, he also determines the effectiveness of the pass rush based on the amount of blockers he can take up or the amount of push he can get into the opponents' backfield.

I don't have a problem with giving Cam Thomas a chance. Nose tackles usually take a while to become decent players. I'm just saying I'm expecting our defense to be worse this year. That's not a guarantee. Thomas might be better than Franklin. The defensive line might stay healthy, thus mitigating the trouble caused by what looks like a lack of depth. Wright might improve to the point that he's not terrible. Cox might stay healthy. Whoever is playing strong safety might be better than Bigby and his replacements from a year ago. Te'o might be better than Spikes right away. Freeney might be better than Phillips. I'm just not expecting much of that.

[Beerman]

Like Steve said, in our 3-4 D the NT has a diminished role playing in only 50% of snaps. That being said, I do feel that's more a reflection of our DE's than anything. Baltimore runs a similar D, but shifts Ngata from his NT to DT in their pass rushing line. So theoretically we could use our NT if the talent warranted. With our personnel however, it doesn't.

Cam in an ideal situation will play 100% of the NT snaps this season. He really doesn't need a backup with the amount of expected snaps he will get in a game - about 30-35 snaps assuming a 60 snap count on the defensive side with an equal 50/50 split in the base and nickel packages.

Key for Cam is holding his own against the run. He loses leverage too often. What he lacks in run support though, he makes up with his pass rush. I wouldn't be surprised to see him with 4-5 sacks this season. Coming from the NT, that's a heck of a number.

I wish you could see more of the action in the trenches during TC, it's tough to see what's going on without being able to see an endzone view or an overhead. Both trenches kinda just blurred together watching from the bleachers.

[thelightningwill]

Word. I hope you're right. I assume Chargers management knows more than I do. But I thought that about AJ Smith too. And Bobby Beathard. And Steve Ortmayer.

[Steve]

Ngata isn't the Ravens NT. Ngata plays at DT, which is similar to our RDE spot, often shifting him inside, so that he is often playing like a 43 DT.

They also play a DE - smaller lighter guy, like a 43 LDE (Chris Canty). They play a guy they call a NT (Tay Cody), right over the C. And then Suggs, who is called a OLB, really lines up like a 43 DE, much like Freeney was used in Indy. Ravens are sort of a hybrid of the 34 and the 43, with each player being fairly specialized, and not really interchangeable. The Ravens DE is not going to line up at DT.

Our D is/was more like a classic 34 D. DE over he OT. NT over the C, OLB over the TE and vs space in the base D. Liuget and Reyes are both shifted inside, or line up outside depending on who we face and how we want to attack the O.

I agree with Cam on the leverage thing. When he plays low, maintains leverage, he can drive OL back into the backfield, split the double team and just be disruptive. He has great strength, but it is useless if he plays higher. But no DL can do much of anything useful if he plays high, and doesn't bend his knees. He has the power and quickness to be a great pass rusher like Jamal used to, but only if he bends his knees.

It is tough to get a lot of sacks if you aren't on the field on obvious passing downs. So many early down pass rushes, the QB throws off a lot of short drops, and they can afford to just get rid of the ball quick, even if they just throw it away. But on passing downs, whether it is early on late downs, the QB has to hold the ball, and you have to run routes that go downfield. So, the pass rushers have more of a chance to get sacks. The QB cannot throw before his receivers are ready. If we can get a lead, and threaten teams with our offense more, then Thomas can get some more plays rushing the passer, and teams will have to force the ball downfield, giving all of our rushers more of a chance to get more sacks.