Bolts eliminated

[floydefisher]

You are correct. Should be 67%.

It just became 100%

Tell me boys, should I look for some more threads to drive the bump truck through?

[Formula 21]

Sorry if i jinxed our chance at elimination.

[KNSD]

I apologize to our 0.5% chance. I didn't give that 0.5% chance a chance. +1 to you big fella.

[maurile]

The Chargers could go down in history as the first team ever to win the Super Bowl after being eliminated.

[maurile]

I apologize to our 0.5% chance. I didn't give that 0.5% chance a chance. +1 to you big fella.

0.5% + 1% is about right. We needed the Dolphins to go 0-2, the Ravens to go 0-2, and the Chargers to go 2-0. For simplicity, if we assume that each game is a coin flip, the probability of that happening was 0.5% ^ 6 = 1.5625%.

[Panama]

0.5% + 1% is about right. We needed the Dolphins to go 0-2, the Ravens to go 0-2, and the Chargers to go 2-0. For simplicity, if we assume that each game is a coin flip, the probability of that happening was 0.5% ^ 6 = 1.5625%.

(sigh) I thought we'd already been through this. Going into the last two weeks of the season, there were 6 results out of 216 possible outcomes that would get us in the playoffs. That's a 2.8% chance. You can't just flip a coin, unless it's a thick enough coin that it's equally likely to land on its edge, because ties are part of the equation.

[maurile]

(sigh) I thought we'd already been through this. Going into the last two weeks of the season, there were 6 results out of 216 possible outcomes that would get us in the playoffs. That's a 2.8% chance. You can't just flip a coin, unless it's a thick enough coin that it's equally likely to land on its edge, because ties are part of the equation.

Those six results are not equally likely. Ties are extremely rare. Only one of those six results was really worth taking seriously, and only 64 of those 216 possible outcomes was really worth taking seriously. 1/64 = ~1.56%.

The possibility of ties might have bumped it up to 1.62% or something, but nowhere hear 2.8%.

[Formula 21]

A tie does not have the same probability as a win or loss. Do you go to a casino and bet on 0 or 00?

[blahblahblah]

Those six results are not equally likely. Ties are extremely rare. Only one of those six results was really worth taking seriously, and only 64 of those 216 possible outcomes was really worth taking seriously. 1/64 = ~1.56%.

The possibility of ties might have bumped it up to 1.62% or something, but nowhere hear 2.8%.

Bayesian probability should have been used because these aren't binary outcomes.

[Formula 21]

Time to Bayesian this binary.

[Panama]

Those six results are not equally likely. Ties are extremely rare. Only one of those six results was really worth taking seriously, and only 64 of those 216 possible outcomes was really worth taking seriously. 1/64 = ~1.56%.

The possibility of ties might have bumped it up to 1.62% or something, but nowhere hear 2.8%.

If you're talking about flipping a coin, you're talking about removing weight/bias. Therefore, 2.8%.

[Guest]

This just in: Dewey defeats Truman!