2014 Draft Do Over

[Guy Lombardo]

I wouldn't peg Te'o this or that just yet. I want to see it play out, but Telesco really liked him. He said Te'o had a very high ceiling. So I'm going to wait and see and have some faith in Telesco's judgment on him. He's a Charger now, so I'm hoping for a HoF career I like do with all of our players. If Telesco is right, we basically nabbed three first round talents with our first three picks in a pretty weak draft.

I can't wait for this upcoming draft!!

[Steve]

If rookies have to fully develop in their rookie season, almost every draft pick is going to be a failure. The pro bowl is full of guys who had their teams scratching their heads about the guys in their 1st season. Rivers was up and down his 1st season as a starter, and that was after sitting on the bench for 2 years. A lot of people were really convinced the Chargers made a huge mistake to signing Weddle to that big contract after his rookie deal expired, because he as a bit of a disappointment. And in both cases, those critics were not totally wrong. But both players kept getting better. If you want some other examples, how about Brandon Albert for KC, who was awful his firt couple years and has quietly developed into one of the best LT in all of football.

It is nice when a player comes in and plays well as a rookie, but it is just not realistic to think it is going to happen every year. there are going to be some years where the guys come in and just play spot roles, and get little playing time. But in the next couple of years, they are going to play more and more, then when someone leaves, or gets hurt, they will step up. But you need that steady pipeline of younger players coming in and developing, and we have only just started that pipeline back up again.

This coming season is going to be tough. Do we stick with older players who could help more now, or cut the better player, save some money and allow the younger players the chance to take their lumps now and we will be better off down the road? WR, OG, C, and OLB are all spots that we are going to face those questions this season.

[Bolt-O]

I look at the draft regrades as a progress report, and you really have no final grade until their careers are over, and you can look at the entire body of work. John Spanos when asked this question regarding regrades said that they just continuously improve. On the other hand, if you get a really significant downgrade, it's a huge blow to the credibility of team. Dolphins by Kiper's regrade did absolutely awful with their picks, and the only one that has positive production was the kicker they picked, and certainly they didn't get what they expected out of Dion Jordan, who they traded up for. Ireland had other things that contributed to his firing, the poor drafting was a major part of it. The Jordan pick is another example why trading up in the first round is perilous.

[BoltBacker]

Funny how T'eo is the one pick we traded up for. You just magnify the risk when you do, no sure things. He may still very will prove to be worth it but I hope they don't do it this year.

[Gwynning_Spirit]

In some article I read last year, TT said that he'd seen Te'o more than any other prospect because of going to so many ND games and felt comfortable he wasn't a bust.

[Yubaking]

For frame of reference purposes, I think our 2004 draft should be used as the gold standard. (I think the 1975 draft was a great one too and our 2005 draft could be argued to be a silver standard.) That draft produced Rivers, Olshansky, Hardwick, Kaeding, Phillips, Turner, Olivea and also produced as UDFAs Floyd and Welker. That draft also secured us an extra first round pick in the 2005 which turned into Merriman. That's 5 Pro Bowl players and two other starters from one draft, plus a starter and another Pro Bowl player from the UDFAs.

While our draft in 2013 was solid, it was not remotely close to being anywhere near the ballpark of our 2004 draft.

Fluker was a good #1 pick. Allen was a steal in round 3. However, Telesco erred when he traded a 4th plus our second to move up 7 spots when 4 comparable ILBs were all on the board and we only had to wait 7 picks for one of them to come to us. None of the other ILBs were taken before pick #45. Arizona was likely taking Minter all along as they preferred LSU players (Peterson, Mathieu and Minter). They scammed us on the way to having arguably the best draft in the whole league.

Where losing our 4th round pick really hurt was in that it cost us valuable draft ammunition that could have been used as part of a trade back in scenario to get John Jenkins at pick #82 in the third round as the Saints did. We didn't have two 4th round picks as the Saints did to get Jenkins, so we would have had to have traded our #3 from 2014 plus our #4 from 2013 to get Jenkins, but then we would not be having any NT issues going forward as our NT of the future would be in already in place.

And even if we didn't do that move to get Jenkins, we have now all seen that you can get a player like Ladarius Green in the 4th round. We lost that chance because Telesco became anxious as our pick in round two approached and threw away our 4th round pick to trade up and get Te'o when it is unlikely that anyone was coming for him before our pick at #45.

Our draft has to be graded on the whole in that context. The value gained in round 3 with Allen is partially offset by the screw up that led to the lost value in round 4. We may yet gain value from our round 5 pick, but that has yet to be determined.

As a result, I think our draft last year was solid and maybe above average, but it does not appear to be a historically great draft by any stretch of the imagination when compared to the historically great drafts that we have had.

[sandiego17]

Fluker was a good #1 pick. Allen was a steal in round 3. However, Telesco erred when he traded a 4th plus our second to move up 7 spots when 4 comparable ILBs were all on the board and we only had to wait 7 picks for one of them to come to us. None of the other ILBs were taken before pick #45. Arizona was likely taking Minter all along as they preferred LSU players (Peterson, Mathieu and Minter). They scammed us on the way to having arguably the best draft in the whole league.

Three solid starters with first 4 picks Telesco held. Most of the time, with hindsight anyone anywhere can do better. Please don't try to claim it isn't hindsight, it is. You may have not liked the Teo pick immediately, but you also absolutely slammed the Allen pick immediately...like I said, with hindsight anyone can do better. I do find it ridiculous to claim Telesco erred or was scammed. He had a terrific first year, putting a roster together that's good enough to win in the playoffs at the same time as dumping guys like Gaither and Meachum. Hopefully he errs and is scammed again this draft and offseason, might result in a Superbowl.

[TTK]

It's too early to judge Te'o, especially with his injury.

[sandiego17]

It's too early to judge Te'o, especially with his injury.

The guy played with a broken foot. If anything, he's tough.

[Yubaking]

Three solid starters with first 4 picks Telesco held. Most of the time, with hindsight anyone anywhere can do better. Please don't try to claim it isn't hindsight, it is. You may have not liked the Teo pick immediately, but you also absolutely slammed the Allen pick immediately...like I said, with hindsight anyone can do better. I do find it ridiculous to claim Telesco erred or was scammed. He had a terrific first year, putting a roster together that's good enough to win in the playoffs at the same time as dumping guys like Gaither and Meachum. Hopefully he errs and is scammed again this draft and offseason, might result in a Superbowl.

SD17, you have missed the limited focus of my criticism of Telesco's draft in the context of this thread.

I totally agree with you that Telesco did some things very well. I give the job done improving the OL an A+. Lissemore was a good add and Woodhead really helped too. Addae looks like a player with great potential that we got from nowhere (read great GMing) on the defensive side of the ball.

Even with the draft, Fluker was a great pick and Allen turned out to be a much needed pick, although it looked like his position was not one of need at the time he was selected. I like S. Williams' measurables and am eager to see what he can contribute next year.

The point of my post is to offer a fair analysis of what Telesco did in the draft only, which is the subject of this thread (as opposed to what he did overall, which does include additional good moves). It is in that context and with some people saying that we had the best draft in the whole league that I am attempting to make a fair analysis of our draft.

As excited as anyone can be about our 2013 draft, there is no way that it compares to our 2004 draft. It doesn't and no reasonable mind could conclude otherwise. Fair enough?

I think it was a solid draft that could end up being well above average if Te'o develops into an above average starter (which may yet happen) and S. Williams can translate his considerable measurable (very fast, quick/fluid hips, good vertical leaping ability) into on field success as that would give us 3 above average players and 4th solid contributor. I hope that happens, but it hasn't happened yet.

So as of now, we have Fluker, who was a rock solid pick and Allen who was a steal. But we have Te'o, who was not the best of the ILBs taken this year (based upon this year's performance), and who we sacrificed a 4th round pick to move up to get when it appears nobody was coming for him and we could have had one of the other comparable players if we did not get Te'o. Therefore, as of right now, the trade up to get Te'o looks like a mistake. It isn't a Ryan Leaf bad mistake, but it was a small mistake based upon what we know as of now.

The "scamming" part comes from my belief that the Cardinals were not going to take Te'o anyway at #38. I really think they wanted Minter all along, so they ended up with our 4th round pick and the player they were going to take anyway. To be clear, it is nowhere near the fleecing of the Giants that we pulled off with the Giants giving us Rivers and picks that turned into Merriman and Kaeding for a lesser QB in Eli Manning, but it can be viewed as a minor fleecing in that the Cardinals didn't end up having to change anything and got our 4th round pick for the heck of it.

And all I am suggesting is that when you review Telesco's first draft, the whole thing should be examined. He gets a big pluses for Fluker and Allen, but he gets a small minus for Te'o. I think that's fair. I think that 5 years from now we will be saying that Telesco had an above average draft, but nobody will be talking about the 2013 draft as if it were as good as the 2004 draft.

So, I am complimenting Telesco for his draft, but not going to extremes over it. I hope that makes it clear that I am not intending to attack Telesco over his success in the draft.

[Yubaking]

It's too early to judge Te'o, especially with his injury.

I agree entirely, but the whole point of this thread is to judge the draft of 2013 based upon what we know now.

[sandiego17]

I agree entirely, but the whole point of this thread is to judge the draft of 2013 based upon what we know now.

Yet you compare it to drafts that took years to unfold to downgrade it? You mention 2004 in particular, a ridiculously great draft for the Bolts. But the best players (Rivers, Phillips, Turner) in that draft weren't starters in year 1. Granted, Hardwick did start. If you limit the analysis to what you state above, the Bolts got as much or more production in the first year of the draft in 2013.