Full on team building mode theory thread.

[Beerman]

If we are going to sign a big FA this offseason, it should be one of the proven CB's that are on the market. Bring in Verner (preferably) or Grimes. At least we know they won't be busts and it's a huge hole on the defense. If we are going to have big cap hits, make sure that player is worth it. Right now our top 10 paid salaries are a joke.

[Yubaking]

The problem is that you are only looking at this as a 1 year deal. Worilds will require a MULTI year deal that includes significant cap dollars. That is what I am trying to avoid completely. We need to get away from signing all these FA's to long term deals for significant cap dollars.

Just for shits and giggles, say he does command 6 million per year in salary on a 4 year deal. Is a guy that has had ONE good year really worth it? He's FAR from a dominant pass rusher. He got 8 sacks last year and is a nice player, but he's not a guy you build around IMO.

You are also advocating using a high pick on an OLB. What the hell for? We just signed a guy for over 5% of the cap. Ingram is on the other side. Where is this other OLB going to play? You want to use a high pick on a specialist? I personally don't. Waste of resources.

IMO, you stop giving out all these big contracts that keep destroying our cap. In regards to OLB, you build it via the draft. We likely only use a mid round pick this year based on talent available. Next year both Freeney and JJ are gone. That's when you use a top pick on an OLB to start opposite Ingram. In neither scenario do you spend big on an OLB. The cost is just too high for meager results.

The only way I would cut JJ or Freeney this year is if one of the big 3 drops to us. Even then I would cut English, Keiser, or Williams before either of those guys.

Just a final note on Worilds - Even the Steelers aren't sold on him long term. One of the reasons he may not resign with him is because they haven't given him assurances he's the long term answer at OLB. Why the fuck should we give him that assurance if his own team won't?

I agree with building primarily through the draft, but not exclusively through the draft. The reality is that all teams have free agents, whether their own or others.

Why would Worilds get $6M per season? Like you said, he has only had one good year and is not a dominant pass rusher. He is just a good overall OLB that does everything well, but nothing great.

If we get him, we can disguise our defenses better. If Freeney is on the field, he is very likely rushing the passer. The same is not true to the same degree to Worilds. This allows for greater confusion in accounting for our players. I like that.

I want us to draft a good #3 OLB because Keiser and T. Williams are on our roster and I hope they only rarely see the field at most. The rookie would substitute in for our starters to give them rest and play for them without drop off in the event of injury. The goal is to build up to 5 good OLBs. This would give us 3 good ones and two not so good ones. (After NT, I think OLB is the next most important position on the defense, so I want that position stocked just like I want NT stocked because good teams have depth and can withstand injury better than bad teams.)

Finally, I do not agree that it is best to just let all of the contracts play themselves out. I will take the years now versus the years later. Why? R-I-V-E-R-S. His time with us is limited. We can win now.

[blueman]

Just to play devil's advocate bman, why not cut Freeney and JJ's "joke" contracts? I'm not wanting to, but you seem to be of two minds.

[Gwynning_Spirit]

In my previous, albeit lengthy post, I suggested that we sign Riley Cooper in free agency as a guy that can hold down WR#2 in the worst case scenario(assuming Floyd does not return). I also suggested that we re-sign Ajirotutu and draft 1-2 WRs. Ideally, if Royal is not kept and we draft two guys, one should be a slot type guy and Herron appears to be a good fit for that type of role as he is fast, has good hands and good change of direction. In the previous post, I have WRs in my draft round clusters as early as rounds 2 and 3. Essentially, counting re-signing Ajirotutu as one added WR, I am talking about bringing in as many as 4 WRs, not just one. (With the draft scenario that I discussed, the 4 WRs are R. Cooper, Ajirotutu, D. Moncrief and Herron.)

I agree more WR's are in need, mainly a durable deep threat guy.
Keep Tutu, no Cooper, no Floyd, keep Royal, no Alexander.

To me, Tutu is just a 6th WR, but you use on ST and keep as a back-up.
V.Brown... well, I hope he does something.

Royal, Alexander and Floyd are all known injury time bombs. I say keep Royal since he can still also do returns and has played through some of his injuries, but it would be foolish to keep more than one these guys. If you want to sign some other scrub-types or rentals and keep Alexander instead for a year in the hope he produces enough for the 6 or so games he might actually play in, I can live with it. I thank him for his time here, but Floyd really should retire.

[SFW]

Is Alexander even going to be ready for the season? There is a lot of debate about him but I don't think he will even be ready to start the season. My guess is if any team signs him he will start the season on the PUP list and not be eligible until week 7.

[Beerman]

Just to play devil's advocate bman, why not cut Freeney and JJ's "joke" contracts? I'm not wanting to, but you seem to be of two minds.

I would love to cut them, but who replaces them? You are also creating more dead cap space and getting nothing in return. If they plan on cutting Freeney it needs to happen before his roster bonus kicks in. JJ, while not a great pass rush threat, does all the dirty stuff a defense needs. Cutting him leaves even more dead money on the cap this season. Cutting JJ only brings back 2.5 million and leaves 3 million in dead cap space. Who are we going to get for 2.5 million that replaces his production? If Telesco can sign that replacement player first, great. Do it and cut him. Otherwise it's foolish to just cut guys without having replacements when those players are still productive.

[Beerman]

Is Alexander even going to be ready for the season? There is a lot of debate about him but I don't think he will even be ready to start the season. My guess is if any team signs him he will start the season on the PUP list and not be eligible until week 7.

Hard to speculate on Alexander. We likely won't know anything till June/July when he's 5-6 months into his rehab. I agree the PUP list is the most likely scenario.

[blueman]

Yep, preaching to the choir, agree it's the lesser of evils at this point to keep both.

[Gwynning_Spirit]

Is Alexander even going to be ready for the season? There is a lot of debate about him but I don't think he will even be ready to start the season. My guess is if any team signs him he will start the season on the PUP list and not be eligible until week 7.

I don't know, but I do get the appeal after seeing what Harvin did for the Seahags in the SB, and that Alexander wouldn't cost much. I just think that this team isn't deep enough to absorb more surefire trips to IR than it has to. 'cough' English.

[Beerman]

Sadly this is what I expect to see happen with OLB at 25.

nfldraftscout: Very easy to say "My team needs X in Rd1", but you have to look at talent available. Might not be a player of value available there.

[Steve]

The salaries of pass rushers, or any other position is NOT driven by their production. It is driven by their future production. So, if there are some teams (really just 1) out there that is desperate enough to think he can be a 16 sack a year guy (Woirlds got 8 sacks in basically 8 games), then he will get the big money. And since desperation leads to self delusion, I am willing to bet he gets a ton of money. And since there is no one else who is going to be a FA pass rusher, the supply and demand thing works for him. He can afford to be picky, because as far as Woirlds goes, he only needs one of them.

Word out of Washington is that the Redskins current offer to Orakpo is similar to the franchise tag, which would go up a bit to about $10 million a season if he signs the tag. They are trying to get him the bonus and such, but the Redskins seem content with signing him to the franchise tag. They really like the idea of having him opposite Kerrigan.

Again, you think his hurries are crap, but hurries are really the stat football guys follow. A single guy rushing the QB often doesn't get sacks. The QB can just step away. But that doesn't mean that a rusher wasn't being effective.

And I don't care how effective Soliai is. He can be the most effective NT in all of football, it is not going to help us win a ton of games. It takes an entire front 7 to play run D. Having a NT can help makes some of the other players around them. But who really cares?

espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/rushingYardsPerGame/position/defense

Check out the stats. First the only one that really matters is points per game (right side). Then check out the ranking if you click on yards per game. It isn't a perfect association, but generally yards per game is about the same as points allowed (not perfectly correlated, but close). Then hit run D. The points allowed is fairly weakly correlated, much more so then total yards. There is some association, but not really very close. Then watch the pass D. Again, not perfect association, but closer then the run D. For the morbidly curious, fire up excel or openoffice, plug in the stats, and the thing that really helps is giving up less yards overall.

So, to improve the D the most, we need to improve our pass D. It will lead to fewer points allowed. So spending millions on a NT might help a bit (we can all understand that) it doesn't mean the improvement would be dramatic. However, a small outlay in more assets (CB, pass rushers...) means a small outlay in the chargers assets will probably lead to a larger improvement. And if you do any regressions, there is a far high association between pass D and total points. And how many yard you give overall is pretty much driven by how good your pass D is.

Just for the record, I am not suggesting we keep Johnson or Freeney once their contracts expire. They are older guys who are losing their effectiveness. Using them only buys us time. And I understand that there is good chance that they will not be productive this season. But what are the odds that a rookie is going to come in and be MORE productive? It is not nearly as good. Rookie OLB and DE (which is what our OLB are), usually struggle. Some are productive, most aren't. So, keeping them this season is about having good role models, some production and some help. But long term, we need to make sure we don't committ ourselves to guys who are not the answer. draft younger guys and develop them, but don't tie up resources long term. Don't trade draft picks. Don't tie up salary cap space on FA who are not going to produce.

[Beerman]

Just to drive home my point about creating dead cap space year after year. Last season we had 12.4 million in dead cap space (about 10% of the salary cap).

This year we already have about 8 million coming from Gaither and Meachum. I expect that number to rise to over 15 million after they cut Cox and a few others. 15 fucking million in dead cap space. That's insane. That's a ridiculous amount of money we are just pissing away that could have been used on actual players that are contributing to the team. The bleeding needs to end.

2015 dead cap space = 0. Let's hope we aren't talking about cutting failed free agents from this season at this point next year.