Let's talk Earl Mitchell

[Yubaking]

You can bitch all you want, but it's pretty obvious NT is not going to be a strong point for the Bolts next year.

I am not bitching about anything. I didn't think we would sign Soliai and was praying that we wouldn't sign Mitchell, so today has been a good day on one front (no Mitchell, thank God) and an expected adverse result on the other. That makes today a good day because it has been much better than expected.

Also, the post you cited simply shows that Panama was flat out wrong about what he was saying unless he can show that KC only played 7% of its snaps in nickel. As it turns out, sometimes NTs do stay on the field in nickel when they are good NTs, which is a point I have been correctly making all along.

[Yubaking]

You didn't answer the question.

It tends to show that our defense was worse than it was the year before at stopping the pass and the run. All other things being equal, defenses that can't stop the pass or the run as well as other defenses tend to give up more points. The fallacy of your argument was that all other things were about as unequal as it gets. Equal points surrendered does not mean equally good defenses even before we reach the issue of net points allowed, which, of course, strongly favors the 2012 defense.

[Yubaking]

Having watched nearly every snap of Mitchell's tenure in Houston and then running across this post, I have concluded that you just yap authoritatively about everything, particularly things you know nothing about. It's really sort of annoying.

I guess nobody at CBSSports, Yahoo or in the NFL knows what they are talking about either. Mitchell entering his prime is getting 4 years for $16M and Soliai, in a contract that will cover some time in which he will be past his prime, is getting 5 years for $33M with $14M guaranteed. I wonder which player is regarded by the league and everyone except Bill Polian and Steve as being the better player. Maybe you could just acknowledge that I am right and leave it at that.

[Guest]

Maybe you could just acknowledge that I am right and leave it at that.

[Beerman]

I guess nobody at CBSSports, Yahoo or in the NFL knows what they are talking about either. Mitchell entering his prime is getting 4 years for $16M and Soliai, in a contract that will cover some time in which he will be past his prime, is getting 5 years for $33M with $14M guaranteed. I wonder which player is regarded by the league and everyone except Bill Polian and Steve as being the better player. Maybe you could just acknowledge that I am right and leave it at that.

I never thought Soliai was worse than Mitchell, they are different players though. Soliai is a prototype run stuffing 3-4 NT. Mitchell is a 4-3 DT that was playing as a 3-4 NT in Wade's system. Atlanta completely overpaid IMO for Soliai who clearly won't outproduce that contract. Mitchell may be a bargain at those prices, but is still pretty young and got a significant amount for what he's done.

Either way, glad we didn't get either player at those numbers.

[oneinchpunch]

Soliai, in a contract that will cover some time in which he will be past his prime, is getting 5 years for $33M with $14M guaranteed.

I was hoping the Chargers would sign him but thats a lot of money for a guy his age. I wonder how it breaks down.

[Yubaking]

I never thought Soliai was worse than Mitchell, they are different players though. Soliai is a prototype run stuffing 3-4 NT. Mitchell is a 4-3 DT that was playing as a 3-4 NT in Wade's system. Atlanta completely overpaid IMO for Soliai who clearly won't outproduce that contract. Mitchell may be a bargain at those prices, but is still pretty young and got a significant amount for what he's done.

Either way, glad we didn't get either player at those numbers.

I don't think Mitchell is a bargain at $4M per season for a 3-4 team like us. I would need to see Soliai's terms in more detail to know whether or not he is being overpaid. To me, it depends on how much of a cap hit the Falcons would take if they were to cut him in year 4 or 5, but he is durable so giving him guaranteed money in that range is not as much of a risk with him as it would be with some other player that just turned 30 and had more of a history with injury.

[Yubaking]

I was hoping the Chargers would sign him but thats a lot of money for a guy his age. I wonder how it breaks down.

Yeah, I just raised that same question. To me, that makes all of the difference as to whether or not it was a good deal for the Falcons. Soliai has been fairly durable.

[Beerman]

I don't think Mitchell is a bargain at $4M per season for a 3-4 team like us. I would need to see Soliai's terms in more detail to know whether or not he is being overpaid. To me, it depends on how much of a cap hit the Falcons would take if they were to cut him in year 4 or 5, but he is durable so giving him guaranteed money in that range is not as much of a risk with him as it would be with some other player that just turned 30 and had more of a history with injury.

I meant bargain over the life of the contract IF he develops. He got overpaid for his current production uptodate. I'm not a fan of paying for potential.

[Panama]

I am not sure why you are incapable of grasping that good NTs play much more than 20%-30% of their team's defensive snaps regardless of defensive formation. Poe played something like 93% of his team's defensive snaps last year. In recent years, Ngata and Raji have played well over 70% of their team's defensive snaps. Jamal played somewhere around two-thirds of our defensive snaps when we had him in the 3-4.

I have been discussing getting a good NT, not a NT that sucks. In FA, that means Soliai, who would play about 50-55% of our snaps. In the draft, that means Nix, who would get a large percentage of snaps this year and even more in the few years following that.

Now maybe you can just admit that you are wrong or you could try to argue that KC only played nickel about 7% of the time.

Ok, wow. Admins, ban me if you must, but...

Yuba, how stupid can you be? Are you trying to be dense on purpose to get a rise out of us, or are you naturally this thick?

There are good, even great, NTs who are not the best pass rushers on their DL. That doesn't mean they suck. You cite some of the best pass-rushing NTs in the game, as if the exception were the rule. In their nickel packages, the Chiefs and Ravens play Poe and Ngata because they are better pass rushers than the D-lineman they pull, just like Jamal Williams was a better pass rusher than Igor Olshansky. But the vast majority of good run-stuffing NTs are not the best pass rushers on their DLs and get pulled in the nickel. I guarantee you if Soliai (or any of the other NTs you've professed a hard-on for) were to come here, they would not force Reyes or Liuget to the bench in the nickel.

But you go on living in your fantasy world. Just, please, don't bring the board down with your endless tirades when we don't sign Soliai and don't draft Nix.

[Panama]

Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter 40s

Falcons agree to terms with DT Paul Soliai...

Thank God! Maybe now we can finally move on.

[Yubaking]

Ok, wow. Admins, ban me if you must, but...

Yuba, how stupid can you be? Are you trying to be dense on purpose to get a rise out of us, or are you naturally this thick?

There are good, even great, NTs who are not the best pass rushers on their DL. That doesn't mean they suck. You cite some of the best pass-rushing NTs in the game, as if the exception were the rule. In their nickel packages, the Chiefs and Ravens play Poe and Ngata because they are better pass rushers than the D-lineman they pull, just like Jamal Williams was a better pass rusher than Igor Olshansky. But the vast majority of good run-stuffing NTs are not the best pass rushers on their DLs and get pulled in the nickel. I guarantee you if Soliai (or any of the other NTs you've professed a hard-on for) were to come here, they would not force Reyes or Liuget to the bench in the nickel.

But you go on living in your fantasy world. Just, please, don't bring the board down with your endless tirades when we don't sign Soliai and don't draft Nix.

Nix is likely a better pass rusher than Reyes and is way better against the run than Reyes. Reyes has a two year developmental head start on him, though, so it would be close.

Reyes is not that great against the pass, so it wouldn't take that much of a pass rush from a NT to beat him out and because Soliai is so good against the run, his being pretty good for a NT against the pass tends to get overlooked. I wouldn't assume that Reyes is that much better as a pass rusher than Soliai is. The question is how much of hit in run defense you want to take to put in a guy like Reyes, who is barely better as a pass rusher and not half as good as a run defender. On third and long, I would use Reyes, but on second and long I would prefer a guy like Soliai to prevent teams from running draws for 7 yards and getting into third and manageable.

Thank you for finally acknowledging that good NTs stay on the field more. Glad we finally got that point across.