First Mock this year, 3 rounds

[ArtistFormerlyKnownAsBKR]

Perhaps it's misperception on my part, but it sure seemed Ingram and Butler were making plays when healthy.

Yes, but I suspect Beerman is talking a notch above that. I think Ingram can possibly become that, however. Overall, though, I basically agree with him. We have some B, B+ players. But we need an A or two. Weddle, on top of his game is probably an A-?

[Steve]

Isn't that pretty common though? Aren't technique issues the main reason why it takes prospects time to acclimate to the pro game? It's also a reason why some college players LOOK better than others when they have advanced technique, but it just doesn't translate to the pro level because they don't have the raw atheleticism to improve.

What I've seen of Nix is a guy that can take on double teams, has crazy strength at the point of attack, and generally just beat his man. He may very well be raw as you say technique wise, but if you combine his raw strength/ability and teach him those advanced techniques...well that's when you get All Pro players.

It's why players like Clowney are going so high. It's why Ansah went so high last year. Granted it's a different skill set, but those big stocky guys like Nix are also very rare to come across. I don't really care one way or another to be honest, I just want TT to take a player that will be a top player at whatever position plays. More than anything we just can't have 1st round busts. They HAVE to be impact players.

I guess a lot depends on what you mean by impact. I think Nix can be an OK NT. He can control both A gaps, he can keep the LB clean. And if that is what teams are looking for, he is their guy. But that is about it. He didn't get much, if any pass rush in college, so I don't see him improving vs NFL OL and QB as a pass rusher.

Many college DL are not good pass rushers because they don't know how to shed, but they have the tools to close and finish the QB, once they get off the block. Nix is not one of those guys.

Nix gets off blocks well enough, and unlike some, he knows where the ball is, and tries to pursuit to make tackles. If people think Nix is going to be the next Ngata or Jamal, then they are seriously mistaken. Those guys are huge, physically imposing guys, but they have great quickness off the ball, to go with the strength and even a little speed. Nix doesn't have the quickness or speed to close on ball carriers or QB. It is not a technique issue, it is a physical tools issue. NFL QB tend to not hold the ball as long as college QB.

Fleet, I wouldn't read too much into a single game vs Barrett Jones. Not that there isn't a point that going up against a technically sound opponent he wasn't as effective as usual. Just that it was a bowl game. While the stakes are high, college teams don't practice all the time after their seasons end. You don't necessarily see the same team who played during the year. I just try not to read too much into bowl games positively or negatively.

The reason I like Jones, Ellis or Kerr is that those guys have some upfield push, so those are guys who add some depth along the DL, and can give some reps at DT in the rush line, if only to keep our starting DE fresh. But none of them is as accomplished technique wise as Nix is, so I don't necessarily see them as better NT then Cam was last season in their rookie year. Down the road, yes, but not necessarily as rookies.

[Formula 21]

Nix was talked about as a mid teens draft pick who wouldn't make it to 25. Now that there is a decent chance he will be there, posters don't want him? He'll be the BPA at a position of need. That's tough to pass up even if you feel it's a devalued position.

Yeah, wr is a sexier pick. I want a top wr in the 1st too. But you have to build your foundations to have consistent success.

[Panama]

Nix was talked about as a mid teens draft pick who wouldn't make it to 25. Now that there is a decent chance he will be there, posters don't want him? He'll be the BPA at a position of need. That's tough to pass up even if you feel it's a devalued position.

Yeah, wr is a sexier pick. I want a top wr in the 1st too. But you have to build your foundations to have consistent success.

Would he really be the BPA there? I'm not convinced.

[Steve]

The real thing with Nix is that it depends on how you value run stuffers. It was not that long ago, teams traded field position by ramming the ball on the ground, and trading punts back and forth, until you got close enough and wore the other team down, then took your shot and tried to score. In that environment, NT that could hold the run and keep the LB clean was worth a lot.

Even now, if I had a little quick DT, adding a big run stuffer to play next to him would be worth a lot. If we had smallish ILB and smaller, more athletic DE, then a NT would be worth more. But Reyes is around 300 lb, and Liuget was close to 320 lb (although I think he might have lost some weight after his rookie year). And as I pointed out, the center of our DL was not the part of the line that left our gapping holes last year. How valuable is a guy who really is never going to be more then a run down player? To some it will still be really valuable. I am not one of them, but it could be.

The value as far as NT goes, IMHO, is that it builds up the middle. There is a draft theory that says you should build the players in the middle because you cannot avoid those guys. They can at least make plays in pursuit, but you cannot run away from them. That is so that another team cannot minimize your best players impact. I'm not sure playing a NT does that. However, taking another 34 DE and playing them at NT, to add depth on the pass rush line, and improve over Thomas might.

As far as our draft goes, I really don't think we have much say in who our 1st pick will be. We get to fill in the card and send it in, but that is not the same thing. We have to be flexible and see how falls to us.

[Yubaking]

I do not agree with a pure BPA analysis in a situation in which one player at a position of extreme need is sitting on a tier multiple levels above the next best player at that position. I think value has to given for positional scarcity.

Nix has been rated as a solid first round pick all year long. The next best group of NTs (Ellis, McCullers, Jones) are all probably early 4th round values. Even if Nix is only a late first round value (his value is arguably a little higher and probably not any lower), that is still about 2.5 rounds higher in value than the next NT group. (I value Jones slightly lower than others do. CBS gives him a 3rd round value.)

Yet, per CBS's big board (which I am only using for reference and concept purposes), there are about 13 CBs and 15 WRs that have a value of a solid round 3 or better rating. So there are many more CB and WR options than there are NT options.

Obviously, with such a player distribution, if given the option, it would be much easier to take Nix first and then worry about getting a CB and a WR than it would be to try to come back and get one of the few remaining NTs if we pass on Nix. If we pass on Nix, we may have to reach with our 3rd round pick just to get one of the lesser NTs because they may be subject to an early 4th round run. The alternative is to risk not getting a meaningful NT at all, which is unacceptable because it puts Geathers on the field for a significant number of snaps every game.

I am not suggesting that we junk player values altogether and reach for a NT or ignore a big difference favoring a player at another position, just that if the values are close enough to be reasonably debated, for goodness sake, we should take the player playing the scarce position because we can come back in the next rounds and pick up the players at the more common positions, getting greater player value overall distributed to our positions of major need.

And barring something unusual happening such as Mack dropping to #25, while we can debate whether or not Nix is the absolute BPA at #25, what I do not think can be reasonably debated is that if Nix is not the BPA at #25, he is going to be very close to being the BPA and certainly close enough to where positional scarcity dictates grabbing him at #25.

[Yubaking]

The real thing with Nix is that it depends on how you value run stuffers. It was not that long ago, teams traded field position by ramming the ball on the ground, and trading punts back and forth, until you got close enough and wore the other team down, then took your shot and tried to score. In that environment, NT that could hold the run and keep the LB clean was worth a lot.

Even now, if I had a little quick DT, adding a big run stuffer to play next to him would be worth a lot. If we had smallish ILB and smaller, more athletic DE, then a NT would be worth more. But Reyes is around 300 lb, and Liuget was close to 320 lb (although I think he might have lost some weight after his rookie year). And as I pointed out, the center of our DL was not the part of the line that left our gapping holes last year. How valuable is a guy who really is never going to be more then a run down player? To some it will still be really valuable. I am not one of them, but it could be.

The value as far as NT goes, IMHO, is that it builds up the middle. There is a draft theory that says you should build the players in the middle because you cannot avoid those guys. They can at least make plays in pursuit, but you cannot run away from them. That is so that another team cannot minimize your best players impact. I'm not sure playing a NT does that. However, taking another 34 DE and playing them at NT, to add depth on the pass rush line, and improve over Thomas might.

As far as our draft goes, I really don't think we have much say in who our 1st pick will be. We get to fill in the card and send it in, but that is not the same thing. We have to be flexible and see how falls to us.

To me, it is less debatable than ever that NT is our position of greatest need. We have a reserve level player being asked to start for us and no quality depth of which to speak.

CB will be better this year because Ghee and Williams replace the likes of Cox and Patrick, making our CB group a much more athletic group. We still have plenty of room for improvement, but it is not nearly the state of desperation that it was last year.

WR will actually be just fine if Floyd comes back, but if not, the offense showed that it was more than functional with the group we had last year. While we could use a developmental player with speed, we can easily get that later in the draft if necessary.

At OLB, we have too many players already with Ingram, Johnson, Freeney, English, Williams, Keiser and Law. We can defer this position altogether for a year if we need to, but we could also look to the future. Either way, the need is not desperate.

At NT, we have Lissemore who can play a few snaps there per game without being killed and nothing behind him. For positional need, there is not a close second to NT.

[CTrout]

Agree NT is a need.

But IMO using a 1st rounder might not give you real value. Nix (1st), Jones (2nd), Ellis (3rd), McCullers (4th) and even a guy like
Carrethers are all fairly equal. I don't think there's a huge difference between them.

To me the biggest drop off in talent is at CB and pass rushers. If you want a good one you better get one early.

[Beerman]

I personally think CB is a bigger need than NT. Simply because a CB would be on the field for 100% of the snaps. I also feel having a lockdown CB would give Pagano more freedom to call his defense. We had to use a lot of bracket coverage last year to make up for our deficiencies in the secondary. Freeing up that second guy would give the D more freedom to make plays.

That's not to discount our need for a NT, it's just based on the snap counts of the position. We also need a NT, but if there's a CB and NT with equal grades, I'd go with the CB. I would, however, take a OLB over both positions, but I don't think there will be any worth the pick in the first.

One of the upsides of the way we use our NT, is that we don't really need a All Pro type guy that can both stuff the run and pass rush. Yes it would be nice, but not necessary. We need a guy like Mebane from the Hawks. Just a massive load in the middle that will control those two A gaps and has enough wiggle to make plays in that short area. Above all up he just needs to hold up at the point of attack and allow our ILBs to flow to the ball. You can find that type of guy in the third/fourth round.

As far as Nix goes, I think he's better than he's being given credit for. I would select him in the first if he was the best player on the board just because I think he will be a solid pro. He's definitely part of the cluster, but clearly there could be other more valuable players in the cluster.

That's kind of where I am with WR. I think it's probably the least of our needs, even behind an OG like Sua-Filo (and I think taking OGs in the first is awful). That said, WR may be the best value on the board because of the talent at the position, so we may go that direction.

In the end we need players at all these positions. The key is to just hit on them. If TT and Co. Have evaluated that one player has a better chance to be a solid pro than the other, well take him. We have more than enough holes to fill.

[Steve]

Speed WR is not a need, it is a want. But then again so are all the rest of the positions. We really don't have any NEEDS this year. But lots of positions were we want to upgrade. We can get by with almost any of the guys we have, but we want to get better across the board.

This draft, for as deep as it is, does not have a Ngata/Jamal type of NT who can dominate vs the inside run, then penetrate and make plays vs the pass. In fact, the better candidates to develop into that type of player are in the middle/end of the draft, not Nix. Nix doesn't have the outstanding quickness/speed to make plays behind the line. He holds the point of attack well, just I am not sure if it is worth a #1 pick for that. If we were playing in the NFC West, going against Seattle and SF 2x each, then we would have to have a NT who is a pro bowler. But most of the time, he just isn't going to be on the field, not with Reyes and Liuget. If we are going to draft a DT type, how about someone who can play DT in the rush line, and maybe even push them at DE?

While I think we may be OK at CB, they are like OL, you really can't have enough of them. We played a ton of nickle D with 3 CB, and 2 S last year. A 3rd true CB makes that an even better set for us. Another good CB, means we can start playing 4 CB, 2 S in a dime package. Any more then that gives us true depth. So, it is not like we wouldn't use them, especially since KC and Den both love to play multiple WR looks, as do most NFL teams.

Am I the only person who is not that thrilled with Sua-Filo? I don't have a problem taking an OG in the 1st, I just don't really like Sua-Filo. Personally, I see a lot of people falling in love with his athletic ability, and forgetting he is only a good OG. I would be a lot happier if he was taken in the 2nd, or 3rd.

[John Madden]

Speed WR is not a need, it is a want. But then again so are all the rest of the positions. We really don't have any NEEDS this year. But lots of positions were we want to upgrade. We can get by with almost any of the guys we have, but we want to get better across the board.

This draft, for as deep as it is, does not have a Ngata/Jamal type of NT who can dominate vs the inside run, then penetrate and make plays vs the pass. In fact, the better candidates to develop into that type of player are in the middle/end of the draft, not Nix. Nix doesn't have the outstanding quickness/speed to make plays behind the line. He holds the point of attack well, just I am not sure if it is worth a #1 pick for that. If we were playing in the NFC West, going against Seattle and SF 2x each, then we would have to have a NT who is a pro bowler. But most of the time, he just isn't going to be on the field, not with Reyes and Liuget. If we are going to draft a DT type, how about someone who can play DT in the rush line, and maybe even push them at DE?

While I think we may be OK at CB, they are like OL, you really can't have enough of them. We played a ton of nickle D with 3 CB, and 2 S last year. A 3rd true CB makes that an even better set for us. Another good CB, means we can start playing 4 CB, 2 S in a dime package. Any more then that gives us true depth. So, it is not like we wouldn't use them, especially since KC and Den both love to play multiple WR looks, as do most NFL teams.

Am I the only person who is not that thrilled with Sua-Filo? I don't have a problem taking an OG in the 1st, I just don't really like Sua-Filo. Personally, I see a lot of people falling in love with his athletic ability, and forgetting he is only a good OG. I would be a lot happier if he was taken in the 2nd, or 3rd.

Hey... Any time you can plug a big body in up front it's a no-brainer.

[Beerman]

I'm biased being a Ucla Alum, but I like Sua-Filo. That said, I wouldn't want him in the first, was just making a point. I'd probably take Moses over him if we were going o line, even though he's probably not worth the pick either.