Draft's Rated Using Trade Value's - We Did Ok - Best And Worst

[Mister Hoarse]

I think the value chart is useful as a basis for tradw compensation, but that's about it.
it's who you end up with on your roster that counts as the real value IMO.

[Mister Hoarse]

I do appreciate all the work put into this chart tho. Differing opinions are a great teacher, and this board is as good as it gets.

[Steve]

I'm quoting Steve here for his line, but this is open to anyone...
Does anybody grade the big boards after the fact to see how they fared?
It seemed like there was a lot of group think among them about certain players, and apparently team scouts/GMs disagreed.

I use the mocks and sites like Walter Football to get a better idea about a lot of small school players, but I don't think these guys' ability to forecast is reliable... that dude did get Pipkins right though, and a whole lot of others barely listed him.


And one problem with the JJohnson point value chart now might be that the contract terms between pick 32 and 33 are way different. It seems to me like 10 points doesn't really account for that.

Of course, TT said his last 1st round talent level player was taken with his pick at 28 anyway. I wonder how many of the previous 27 picks Chargers Evaluators felt were actually first round talents?

Any single list is fatally flawed anyway. Usually, the lists you see on web sites are list's compiled by a single person. Does any single person compile a teams draft ranking? Probably not anymore. Even Gruden, who is probably the closest to a single decision maker, is doing so with scouts as his info gathering, and Mayock as at least a filter.

So a team will have a list that is a combination of many different people's opinions blended into a single list. That alone makes it hard to come up with, just because the biases get really complicated.

Then add in the fact that the 32 teams are all going to have their list, and their own people making the list ......

Add in the guys like Murray also screw things up. I doubt many people have Murray listed as the #1 player in the draft. He got picked so high because he was close to being the best, but has upside and is a QB (franchise QB???).

Again there are a bunch of different value charts, that use different lengths of time, and different methodologies.

https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/15398184/2017-nfl-draft-creating-a-brand-new-nfl-draft-value-trade-chart

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nfl-draft-value-index/

https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jqa...xml?format=INT I can't access this, but I find it interesting someone published a paper on it.


For the morbidly curious, I put the values from the 3 draft value charts into a spreadsheet. I labeled them JJ (blue)- Jimmy Johnsons's (NFL draft value chart), CS (yellow)- Chase Stuart from PF prospectus, and RH (red) for Rich Hill's from PatsPulpit. The first couple of columns are the raw values, but you can't compare them, so I normalized them into a percent (of total draft value per pick), so they can be compared. The bottom is the pick number, 1st to 256 (last pick of the 7th round, including the comp picks)
image.png

[Formula 21]

Any single list is fatally flawed anyway. Usually, the lists you see on web sites are list's compiled by a single person. Does any single person compile a teams draft ranking? Probably not anymore. Even Gruden, who is probably the closest to a single decision maker, is doing so with scouts as his info gathering, and Mayock as at least a filter.

So a team will have a list that is a combination of many different people's opinions blended into a single list. That alone makes it hard to come up with, just because the biases get really complicated.

Then add in the fact that the 32 teams are all going to have their list, and their own people making the list ......

Add in the guys like Murray also screw things up. I doubt many people have Murray listed as the #1 player in the draft. He got picked so high because he was close to being the best, but has upside and is a QB (franchise QB???).

Again there are a bunch of different value charts, that use different lengths of time, and different methodologies.

https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/15398184/2017-nfl-draft-creating-a-brand-new-nfl-draft-value-trade-chart

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nfl-draft-value-index/

https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jqa...xml?format=INT I can't access this, but I find it interesting someone published a paper on it.


For the morbidly curious, I put the values from the 3 draft value charts into a spreadsheet. I labeled them JJ (blue)- Jimmy Johnsons's (NFL draft value chart), CS (yellow)- Chase Stuart from PF prospectus, and RH (red) for Rich Hill's from PatsPulpit. The first couple of columns are the raw values, but you can't compare them, so I normalized them into a percent (of total draft value per pick), so they can be compared. The bottom is the pick number, 1st to 256 (last pick of the 7th round, including the comp picks)
image.png

very nice work.

[Cdn Bolt]

Any single list is fatally flawed anyway. Usually, the lists you see on web sites are list's compiled by a single person. Does any single person compile a teams draft ranking? Probably not anymore. Even Gruden, who is probably the closest to a single decision maker, is doing so with scouts as his info gathering, and Mayock as at least a filter.

So a team will have a list that is a combination of many different people's opinions blended into a single list. That alone makes it hard to come up with, just because the biases get really complicated.

Then add in the fact that the 32 teams are all going to have their list, and their own people making the list ......

Add in the guys like Murray also screw things up. I doubt many people have Murray listed as the #1 player in the draft. He got picked so high because he was close to being the best, but has upside and is a QB (franchise QB???).

Again there are a bunch of different value charts, that use different lengths of time, and different methodologies.
https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23...ue-trade-chart
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/th...t-value-index/
https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jqa...xml?format=INT I can't access this, but I find it interesting someone published a paper on it.


For the morbidly curious, I put the values from the 3 draft value charts into a spreadsheet. I labeled them JJ (blue)- Jimmy Johnsons's (NFL draft value chart), CS (yellow)- Chase Stuart from PF prospectus, and RH (red) for Rich Hill's from PatsPulpit. The first couple of columns are the raw values, but you can't compare them, so I normalized them into a percent (of total draft value per pick), so they can be compared. The bottom is the pick number, 1st to 256 (last pick of the 7th round, including the comp picks)
image.png

Interesting - all very similar. Thanks for the chart.

[Boltjolt]

I'm quoting Steve here for his line, but this is open to anyone...
Does anybody grade the big boards after the fact to see how they fared?
It seemed like there was a lot of group think among them about certain players, and apparently team scouts/GMs disagreed.

I use the mocks and sites like Walter Football to get a better idea about a lot of small school players, but I don't think these guys' ability to forecast is reliable... that dude did get Pipkins right though, and a whole lot of others barely listed him.


And one problem with the JJohnson point value chart now might be that the contract terms between pick 32 and 33 are way different. It seems to me like 10 points doesn't really account for that.

Of course, TT said his last 1st round talent level player was taken with his pick at 28 anyway. I wonder how many of the previous 27 picks Chargers Evaluators felt were actually first round talents?

This site below does. They grade a lot of sites and compare their own board and they are pretty good.

Click the link below, then go in the middle of their page, go to top 100 scores(top 100 lists) and you will see the last 5 year averages for many draft sites, including McShay, Kiper, Zierlein, Rob Rang and see who is good and who isn't.
Walter football don't make the cut lol.

Also click on mock draft scores for who are the best mock drafters.

www.thehuddlereport.com

[Steve]

This site below does. They grade a lot of sites and compare their own board and they are pretty good.

Click the link below, then go in the middle of their page, go to top 100 scores(top 100 lists) and you will see the last 5 year averages for many draft sites, including McShay, Kiper, Zierlein, Rob Rang and see who is good and who isn't.
Walter football don't make the cut lol.

Also click on mock draft scores for who are the best mock drafters.

www.thehuddlereport.com

There are 2 ways of looking at it.

How well do you do compared to the draft. That is what the huddle report has. Very interesting read.

The other part is to evaluate the picks and see how good the players are relative to their draft position, which is the real issue. Lots of stupid biases and taking picks for all the wrong reasons, or owners telling front offices who they felt should be picked (https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-draft-a...020352509.html).

[Formula 21]

This site below does. They grade a lot of sites and compare their own board and they are pretty good.

Click the link below, then go in the middle of their page, go to top 100 scores(top 100 lists) and you will see the last 5 year averages for many draft sites, including McShay, Kiper, Zierlein, Rob Rang and see who is good and who isn't.
Walter football don't make the cut lol.

Also click on mock draft scores for who are the best mock drafters.

www.thehuddlereport.com

27 of 32 first round picks matched a team need. So much for BPA. Its a mantra unless somebody great falls to you.

[Formula 21]

This site below does. They grade a lot of sites and compare their own board and they are pretty good.

Click the link below, then go in the middle of their page, go to top 100 scores(top 100 lists) and you will see the last 5 year averages for many draft sites, including McShay, Kiper, Zierlein, Rob Rang and see who is good and who isn't.
Walter football don't make the cut lol.

Also click on mock draft scores for who are the best mock drafters.

www.thehuddlereport.com

That's really interesting. But Id be curious to see correlation between rankings and player achievement after 5 years.

[Gwynning_Spirit]

Thanks guys!

Again there are a bunch of different value charts, that use different lengths of time, and different methodologies.

https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/15398184/2017-nfl-draft-creating-a-brand-new-nfl-draft-value-trade-chart

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nfl-draft-value-index/

https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jqas.2011.7.2/jqas.2011.7.2.1329/jqas.2011.7.2.1329.xml?format=INT

This site below does. They grade a lot of sites and compare their own board and they are pretty good.
www.thehuddlereport.com

[Mister Hoarse]

27 of 32 first round picks matched a team need. So much for BPA. Its a mantra unless somebody great falls to you.

In the salary cap era all teams have multiple needs every draft.

[Boltjolt]

ESPN radio dudes this morning were just ripping the Raiders draft and ripping Gruden.

They think the middle round picks (Crosby, Johnson ,Moreau) will be better than the first round picks and they don't like Mullen.
Saying all they did was draft players in the Championship game and didnt really do much other scouting lol. They were laughing while talking about it.

They dont think Renfroe will make the team with who they have. Called that a dumb pick.