Does Te'o get his job back?

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

I think a few YPC haiku's would also be appropriate.

[Marshall/Boogie]

Yubaking gets it
So now your get it pisspipes
Never wrong logo.

[Steve]

Have you ever been in a science class? When you try to see what happens as a result of changing one variable, you do your best to keep the other variables fixed. Why? Because if you let the other variables change, then your result is a reflection of a combination of factors and not necessarily the result of just the change in the variable you are trying to study.

This has nothing to do with a science class doing that. You are making up relationships. Science teachers (presumably) are presenting established, determinisitc relationships (physical laws). If you have a established physical relationship (kinetic Energy = 1/2 x mass x velocity(squared)), then you can do what you suggest. But you can't just grab random variables and associate them. Again, if this was science, you would have lost a long time ago, because the journal peer review (the other posters) would reject what you are saying. Remember Science has to be proven over and over. You have yet to establish anything as evidence. We have presented some stats, some ancedotal, some deterministic arguments, and some basic case studies, all support the other opinion.

You and Steve have been guilty of violating this concept with respect to assessing what the effect of having a good run actually is--from day one.

You haven't done much that earns any respect.

All I have said is that if you make the run defense better, the whole defense overall will be better. That assumes everything else stays the same. If you change other variables, you have just left the scope of my assertion.

That is not the assertion you have been making all along. You appear to have changed your story. And no one is arguing that we shouldn't get better against the run, just the methods and resources should be done in other ways.

I saw all of the playoff losses I cited. Lack of run defense in the second half killed us in those games against NE, PIT and the NYJ. I was at the Jets game. I can guarantee you that we win that game if Greene does not run all over us for a TD and I would have liked our chances even with the Greene run if we had made the final third down stop that we blew because our run defense was not very good.

You cannot do statistical evidence on a single game. It only a partial data point to the overall point being made. However, we lost the game long before the Jets made that run. Greene broke the run, but how long was the Jets unable to get 1st downs by running? I don't recall directly, but it was sometime in the middle of the 3rd to early 4th qtr. The game winning run was the long run by the jets, but the Chargers had numerous 3rd and long situations that we failed to pressure or even slow the Jets passing game. They kept playing field position and that kept us out of the end zone. Then finally, after we kept them in the game long enough, they finally broke a long run. Sure that was the straw that broke the camels back, but unless points scored in the 4th qtr count more then points in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd, we could have put the game out of reach by just pinning them back and kicking FG. And since there were many of those oppurntunities, the single breakdown vs the run pales vs all the numerous pass D breakdowns.

In your examples, all of the other variables are changed. We were more suspect against the run against CIN than against DEN, but we overcame that because of better time of possession, better net turnovers, better pass defense and better offensive production. That does nothing to undermine any of the points I have made. That doesn't mean we played good run defense against CIN.

You keep chaing the conditions of you "experiment". You can't just keep apply the same stats to any set of conditions, although you seem to try.

Further, YPC against is my go to stat for run defense, not for all defense. It may not be perfect, but over a whole season, it usually does a pretty good job of sorting out the good run defenses from the bad ones. Total yards is crap.

Prove it.

In the spring I plotted a series of graphs, by year, of ypc allowed, vs points allowed. When I ran a linear regression line through it, the line did not describe the data points. The regression equation does indeed put a line through the points (it is an mathematical algorithmn, that means nothing), but the R squared value (goodness of fit) was not very much above zero About 0.05 (where 1 or -1 are perfect fits and zero is completely uncorrelated). If there was a relationship, then there should be some sort of trend. But the line had about as many points above it as below it. Teams with high YPC who gave up a lot of points, teams with low YPC who gave up a lot of points, and teams in the middle who spanned the spectrum. The ONLY reason that there was any association found by the regression equation is that really impossibly bad defenses are hopeless against the run and pass.

Finally, as for Soliai, I said that I thought he could help us but that ATL paid too much for him. You do get that when I heard the price paid by the Falcons for Soliai, I immediately stated that he was not worth that much, right? He was believed by me to be the best true NT out there on the free agent market at that time. Even if Soliai's individual performance has fallen off, a proposition that has not been established by any cited stat in this thread, all that would mean is that Soliai is not as good as he used to be. That does nothing to undercut anything I have said about the importance of having a good NT.

But that was the point. You don't go out and sign guys who are over the hill to FA contracts, especially when you have limited cap dollars. And he is fucking awful. NO was singling him out on opening day and running right at him, like Buffalo and the Jets did against him last year. Teams are running at the weak spot to finish games off. Soliai is being run at, just like he was last year, only now he doesn't have anyone good next to him. And the way I know that is that I have seen him play. He is not a good player. He sucks now. He sucked most of last year. He used to be a good player years ago, but he isn't anymore. But you bought into the hype, and your reasoning to sign him was just flat out wrong. You can have an opinion, but if I can prove that it is wrong based on evidence, it is not valid if it is stated as fact.

And even if he was the player he once was, how much value would he be? How many plays would he get? 25 a game? He might have helped us some vs AZ, although I doubt it. But the rest of the games, the big runs have come outside and off tackle. How many big runs have we allowed up the middle? He could be the best damn NT in all of football, and he would still be a waste of money if he had prevented us from signing the other FA, like Johnson, Donald Brown, or Flowers.

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

Rep+ /\

[KNSD]

More upside down tigers can't be a bad thing.

:sprite: :sprite: :sprite: :sprite: :sprite: :sprite: :sprite: :sprite: :sprite: :sprite: :sprite: :sprite:

[6025]

:sprite: :sprite: :sprite: :sprite: :sprite: :sprite: :sprite: :sprite: :sprite: :sprite: :sprite: :sprite:

This ^

[homeless simpson]

responding to Yuba is like responding to spam email, it will never stop bombarding you with shit you don't want to read.

[blahblahblah]

I have heard of it, but have no practical experience with it. It has literally been 28 years since I last studied mathematics of any kind (advanced calculus then). If you count statistics, then 26-27 years ago, a long time ago either way.

I have not seen an application of multivariate analysis to what we have been discussing. I am sure it would take considerable study and effort for me to break it down (given my lack of exposure to it) to have an opinion about it if such an analysis were to exist herein.

That's funny, I've seen you dismiss it out of hand several times.

[Big Dog]

In the spring I plotted a series of graphs, by year, of ypc allowed, vs points allowed. When I ran a linear regression line through it, the line did not describe the data points. The regression equation does indeed put a line through the points (it is an mathematical algorithmn, that means nothing), but the R squared value (goodness of fit) was not very much above zero About 0.05 (where 1 or -1 are perfect fits and zero is completely uncorrelated). If there was a relationship, then there should be some sort of trend. But the line had about as many points above it as below it. Teams with high YPC who gave up a lot of points, teams with low YPC who gave up a lot of points, and teams in the middle who spanned the spectrum. The ONLY reason that there was any association found by the regression equation is that really impossibly bad defenses are hopeless against the run and pass.

Least square regression lines ... ohhhh snap ... you been bitch slapped now Yubaking ... statisically speaking ...

[oneinchpunch]

responding to Yuba is like responding to spam email, it will never stop bombarding you with shit you don't want to read.

It's like watching the movie Idiocracy in thread form

[chris9341]

Sorry, but the fact that teams chose to run versus pass against ATL in the red zone has nothing to do with defining where ATL stacks up against the run. Teams have been able to pass and run on ATL at will and have gotten the ball in close where they coincidentally tried to run, making ATL the least scored upon team in the league despite having the league's worst pass defense. The fact that the TDs happened via the run instead of the pass does not make the run defense worse or the pass defense better.

The same is true of the first downs generated, which is further misleading when compared to our team's first downs because of the difference in rushing attempts being against us versus ATL.

If you rather I refer to what you posted as "your stat citing non-analysis", then have it your way. I don't think that changes any of the points that I made concerning your stat citing non-analysis.

I have no doubt in my mind that you and swami are related. Maybe not in the sense of being a brees balls washer. But your posts are a joke. How is it that you can say teams have been able to run and pass on ATl at will yet somehow they are the least scored upon team? That doesn't even make sense. I just looked up the stats on ESPN for ATL Defense and they rank 30th in the league in most yards given up oh and teams have rushed 135 times against them 3rd most in the league and they are giving up 153.5 ypg. They have allowed 9 rushing TD's more then any other team. Oh and Atl also has the 30th ranked pass defense also. But the most important stat of all is scoring defense San Diego ranks 5th in the league with 63 points against that is 15.8 ppg against, Atl is ranked 30th in ppg against at 113 which makes teams playing against Atl 28.3 per game. If your gonna post shit atleast post shit that you can back up. Ive been intentionally trying not to respond to your BS posts here but this one right here I had to. Oh and total defense ATl is ranked 31st while San Diego is ranked 13th.

[MakoShark]

PEANUTS.....GET YOUR PEANUTS HERE....PEANUTS............