Welcome Kenneth Murray LB, Oklahoma

[BlackMamba]

Good post, Steve.

PFF is a great analytics website and the writers seem to be pretty knowledgeable about the game and specifically what's valuable in today's NFL. It's obvious to me that as much as some old school NFL'ers and fans despise analytics, they definitely have a lot of value in assessing teams and individual player performances.

Having said that, at times PFF puts way too much value in the raw numbers and not enough on context like the specific circumstances these players are caught in - coaching, system, teammates, competition, etc. And there's seemingly not as much thought put into how likely certain players are to improve in the NFL, given their circumstances in college and their individual physical tools and intangibles. That's understandable because it's hard to quantify, but it does make their analysis and big board too flawed for my liking. Too often their write-ups make these kids out to be finished products, because apparently it's impossible for a 21 or 22-year old to fix their weaknesses (like Herbert's on-field processing)...you apply that same reasoning to another job like say, a young doctor or financial analyst, and it makes no sense.

Then I see players from small schools ranked in their Top 30 or whatever simply because they dominated lesser competition, and the numbers say so. It's ridiculous. And it goes the other way, too, with so many highly rated guys from the big time SEC programs, who inevitably disappoint in the NFL when they're not surrounded by as much elite talent.

Would I be saying this if PFF liked our draft? Probably not, lol...but I still think there's some truth to it.

[Formula 21]

I like PFF but I wonder about their grading at times. Does include strength of competition? A quality guy dominating weak competition should score better than the same guy stalemating better competition. And there’s nothing about intangibles like leadership.

[JPPT1974]

Not just have him as a great player but would be leader and one on and off the field!

[like54ninjas]

Not just have him as a great player but would be leader and one on and off the field!

BEAST on the field and incredible human off.

[Boltjolt]

PFF draft writeup has a real problem with his coverage skills. I don't think it is that big a deal, I think OU used him that way specifically, I don't think, just because he excelled in how he was used, that it is the only way he could be used. I think if you work on it, he coverage will be fine. He has the speed and athletic ability that suggest he will, but only time will tell.

PFF has done a lot of work recently that suggest coverage LB are the guys who give teams the best value and best production that will lead to winning games. No ILB in the NFL is going to rush enough to really be an impact pass rusher, so coverage it is.

PFF REALLY hates that we traded up to get a guy who doesn't cover well.

So, it all comes down to how much do you think Murray
a) wasn't ask to cover but can learn
b) was asked to cover was bad at it but can still learn
c) was simply terrible at it in the past, so is therefore incapable of learning -> the PFF method of extrapolating statistics automatically puts you in this category (with the caveat that .players who show improvement might show up in as a trend).

Personally, I think a and b are fairly likely. Mostly, because after charting LB in the draft for too many years, I see it happen every year.

PFF is really upset that not only would we draft a LB who cannot cover, but that we traded up to do so.

Eh.. I have a problem with how PFF comes up with some of their stats which to me, aren't valid ways to do it. Not a huge fan of PFF but they have their place. Maybe they have fixed some of that, idk. I don't pay much attention to them but I do like some things they keep track of,.... Like snap counts the way they do.

[Steve]

I like PFF but I wonder about their grading at times. Does include strength of competition? A quality guy dominating weak competition should score better than the same guy stalemating better competition. And there’s nothing about intangibles like leadership.

PFF has it's moments, but I agree that there are some issues with the grading. It is generally OK, but there are times I think it can be a little wonky.

THe bigger issue is that sometimes their descriptions about how they do their little studies is often a little bit too brief, which is pretty common in analytics. Stuff like strength of schedule, and things like that are no always mentioned and it is hard to tell what they are doing. THey like to hide behind the fact that they are trying to sell their stats to teams and agents is probably hurting their objectivity.

[Steve]

You somewhat mention it but I doubt PFF takes into account defensive scheme, position responsibilities in said scheme, or WR target distance from defender at either throw point or catch window.
K9 has outstanding football IQ, ideal physical attributes with size/speed/length, high end work ethic/determination, and the humility to be taught/learn/adapt.

They say they are deliberately trying not to. There is so much variety among coaches in how they implement the same schemes, that even if you knew what each team is trying to do, the suitable differences between teams would make it tough to really understand the nuance. Plus, their point is to try and be, as much as they can, impartial.

The other thing as far as grading goes, there were several LB who had similar grades and did end up going in a similar area at the end of the 1st and beginning of the 2nd round. If teams had them all ranked about the same, and then the same thing happens with a bunch of other positions, you get a whole lot of people who could potentially have very similar grades. That is where ranking them 1 to whatever really sucks, because simply ranking doesn't tell you how close they are.

Traditionally, when you get into the end of the 1st and into round 2, that is where teams start to be very, very subjective and scheme specific in their evaluations. I think it is worth them making their point, but in the end these things are a little intellectually dishonest. They pick the tools and how they analize, the least they could do is to be more forgiving to the flaws the tools they put out have.

[Xenos]

How impactful do see a 3rd round rookie LT starting for this team. We already have one in Pipkins who has a year of experience. The only tackle worth taking [for us] in 1st round was Andrew Thomas. Once the Giants took him I think made Herbert the lock

You didn't like Wills, Becton, or Wirfs?

[like54ninjas]

Some more NFL scout notes on K9.....

The Athletic’s Bob McGinn reached out to three scouts to get a better idea what those in the league thought of him ahead of the draft.

The first scout had high praise for Murray, saying that he believes he was better than Bears’ Roquan Smith coming out of college and that he should have no issue making the Pro Bowl.

One of my favorite players. When you plug in the player and the person you love him even more. He does everything you want. He runs the defense. I thought he was better than Roquan Smith. I don’t think he’s quite as good as a Luke Kuechly. He’ll be a Pro Bowl-type player. He didn’t cover there. They didn’t ask him to, but I think he can. He’s an explosive athlete but he’s not a physical tackler. That’s one of the only knocks I have on him.

The second scout had nothing but good things to say, too, despite pointing out some of his weaknesses with his game.

He can run the show. Just a little bit lacking on instincts and angles. But he’s big, fast and a hell of a kid. He loves football. Great locker-room guy.

Here is what the third scout said:

He’s sideline-to-sideline. Inside, he tries to take on. He’s just not the strongest. He’s more of a slip-and-dip type, which is what you’re playing with now. As far as a modern-day linebacker, he has those traits. Covers well.

Overall, Murray is a quick-twitch athlete who possesses the speed and physicality against the run and pass with blitz ability, projecting as three-down starting linebacker for the Chargers.

[blueman]

“Overall, Murray is a quick-twitch athlete who possesses the speed and physicality against the run and pass with blitz ability, projecting as three-down starting linebacker for the Chargers.”

^This and worth repeating. Been trying to find this player since Junior left. Go, Murray!

[sonorajim]

“Overall, Murray is a quick-twitch athlete who possesses the speed and physicality against the run and pass with blitz ability, projecting as three-down starting linebacker for the Chargers.”

^This and worth repeating. Been trying to find this player since Junior left. Go, Murray!

I've been waiting!
Go Murray!

[Maniaque 6]

As far as Murray gives more than Shenault and Jones.
It is the real cost of that trade up.