Official 2018 Draft Thread- We Have the 17th Pick

[Steve]

The best thing about wilkins is he can play every position on the dline, his iq is great, he gets his hands up at the right times to knock a pass down, and when hes told to go sfter the qb he has quick hands.

Payne has no chance of falling now, before the playoffs he had a second round grade on him he was playing good but not 1st round good.

Nnadi is definitely a low energy guy but having bosa and ingram on his outsides should liven him up, his only reall job will be try to take on double teams or just plug the middle for the run.

Hurst scares him, i know in a 4-3 you dont need a big dt but hes only 285 pounds thats light dor a dt. I just worry about him getting pushed around in the nfl at that weight

The Wilkins thing is a fair point, but not at the top of the draft. The thing is, Wilkins is not fast enough to be a DE in the NFL. He can't play on the edge, he just doesn't have the speed and quickness to beat an OT outside. His versatility doesn't translates. He can play outside on run downs, and in goalline situations, but his size, speed and quickness are just fine inside.

Wilkins needs to improve his technique and learn to use his hands. He needs to stop waiting for plays to develop and he needs to initiate the plays himself. Fire off low, have his hands hitting and getting under the OL pads as his feet drive into the 2nd step, and then shed the block and make the play. He and Vea (and tons of other college DL) usually just stand up, let the OL block, then throw the block off, and chase the play down from behind. That is fine in college, but everyone is going to be that big, quick and fast in the NFL, so those skills don't translate to the NFL.

Teams were scared about drafting Aaron Donald, and didn't because he was small. It didn't matter. When I look at guys like him, forget the college production, that doesn't matter. Watch him play, and is he the style of player that projects well in the NFL? To me, his leverage, technique and take off make him exactly the style of player who will have some success, because he is already doing the things he needs to do. The leverage is the big selling point to me. He jacks up much bigger, and more powerful players all the time. Sure they are all sloppy compared to NFL guys, but Hurst is playing so low, NFL guys aren't going to get under his pads.

The one thing smaller NFL DL have to do if they are going to play inside most of the time, is they need to be rotated. If we drafted Hurst, we would need to have him split time with Phillon. small guys just seem to wear down a lot, which is understandable, since they give up 50+ lbs to the OL.

Ideally, you want your best players on the DL to play 2/3 to 3/4 of the time, maybe a little more, or they wear down. Ingram and Bosa's production dropped big time, and while I think there are a lot of issues there, one of them is that they simply played too many snaps early on. Think of it like doing gassers after practice. The first ones, your legs are sorta fresh and you can run hard and fast. But as the muscles tire they lose the explosion. You may be running all out after that, but your 100% after your legs turn to rubber is not nearly as fast as the 100% was the first couple. Sure, they can still be out on the field and function, but you aren't going to explode off the line and get past the OL. The OL gets tired, but he doesn't have to beat the DL off the snap, he is just looking to break even on pass blocking.

The other thing we need to do is stop playing our best DL on as many early downs. Someone like Issac Rochelle or Tenny Palepoi would be a better run down guy than Bosa and Ingram. No, they are not better players, but 1st downs are typically short, quick passes or runs. Hard for pass rushers to make much of an impact on those downs. If it is a run, Rochelle and Palepoi can defended that almost as well as Bosa/Ingram can. And on a quick pass, neither of them is going to do much if the QB is getting the ball out on time. But Rochelle and Palepoi are not guys you can sub in on 2nd and long and 3rd down and long and think they can rush the passer. That is where Bosa and Ingram have the biggest impact. They can play some early downs, but set the rotation to make sure they are on the field the downs that help the most. Davis can help on some of the later down rotation, but we need to be able to use him as a 3rd/4th rusher on long yardage passing downs. He can get the rest of his snaps rotating between the Leo and strong De on other downs.

[Formula 21]

Column | Kiper talks NFL draft, says stats are for losers

Wyoming Cowboys quarterback Josh Allen looks on from the sidelines during the 2017 Potato Bowl against the Central Michigan Chippewas in Idaho. (Brian Losness/USA TODAY Sports) Tom KrasovicNFL draft.

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[charger1993]

The Wilkins thing is a fair point, but not at the top of the draft. The thing is, Wilkins is not fast enough to be a DE in the NFL. He can't play on the edge, he just doesn't have the speed and quickness to beat an OT outside. His versatility doesn't translates. He can play outside on run downs, and in goalline situations, but his size, speed and quickness are just fine inside.

Wilkins needs to improve his technique and learn to use his hands. He needs to stop waiting for plays to develop and he needs to initiate the plays himself. Fire off low, have his hands hitting and getting under the OL pads as his feet drive into the 2nd step, and then shed the block and make the play. He and Vea (and tons of other college DL) usually just stand up, let the OL block, then throw the block off, and chase the play down from behind. That is fine in college, but everyone is going to be that big, quick and fast in the NFL, so those skills don't translate to the NFL.

Teams were scared about drafting Aaron Donald, and didn't because he was small. It didn't matter. When I look at guys like him, forget the college production, that doesn't matter. Watch him play, and is he the style of player that projects well in the NFL? To me, his leverage, technique and take off make him exactly the style of player who will have some success, because he is already doing the things he needs to do. The leverage is the big selling point to me. He jacks up much bigger, and more powerful players all the time. Sure they are all sloppy compared to NFL guys, but Hurst is playing so low, NFL guys aren't going to get under his pads.

The one thing smaller NFL DL have to do if they are going to play inside most of the time, is they need to be rotated. If we drafted Hurst, we would need to have him split time with Phillon. small guys just seem to wear down a lot, which is understandable, since they give up 50+ lbs to the OL.

Ideally, you want your best players on the DL to play 2/3 to 3/4 of the time, maybe a little more, or they wear down. Ingram and Bosa's production dropped big time, and while I think there are a lot of issues there, one of them is that they simply played too many snaps early on. Think of it like doing gassers after practice. The first ones, your legs are sorta fresh and you can run hard and fast. But as the muscles tire they lose the explosion. You may be running all out after that, but your 100% after your legs turn to rubber is not nearly as fast as the 100% was the first couple. Sure, they can still be out on the field and function, but you aren't going to explode off the line and get past the OL. The OL gets tired, but he doesn't have to beat the DL off the snap, he is just looking to break even on pass blocking.

The other thing we need to do is stop playing our best DL on as many early downs. Someone like Issac Rochelle or Tenny Palepoi would be a better run down guy than Bosa and Ingram. No, they are not better players, but 1st downs are typically short, quick passes or runs. Hard for pass rushers to make much of an impact on those downs. If it is a run, Rochelle and Palepoi can defended that almost as well as Bosa/Ingram can. And on a quick pass, neither of them is going to do much if the QB is getting the ball out on time. But Rochelle and Palepoi are not guys you can sub in on 2nd and long and 3rd down and long and think they can rush the passer. That is where Bosa and Ingram have the biggest impact. They can play some early downs, but set the rotation to make sure they are on the field the downs that help the most. Davis can help on some of the later down rotation, but we need to be able to use him as a 3rd/4th rusher on long yardage passing downs. He can get the rest of his snaps rotating between the Leo and strong De on other downs.

On wilkins if you watch him, he will take on blockers and best people, but most of the time hes doing what brett venebales wants him to, they use big dexter lawerence 6 ft 4 340 pounds for double teams, wilkins is often asked to only take on 1 blocker and watch the qb, because of ghe heavy linebacker blitzes venebales calls, thats the reason you see him wait sometimes, hes put on a delay because hes disruptive and an all around grest athlete.

maurice hurst i wouldnt have a problem with if we traded back some, i just wonder can he be an everydown dt, or would it be asking to much of him, i mean hes only 285, thats not alot for a dt especially when youre going against nfl centers and guards, if we take him we have to make sure he can consistently spilt the blockers, if nkt hes going to get stone walled. I mean i like him just that dts under 300 pounds make me nervous, especially when we need a run stuffer /pass rusher.

If were at 17 and derwin james falls to us we have to take him, hed be a ss in gus bradleys offense, and when he gets brought down into the bow like philips was it would give us a fast db whose a play maker. If that happens we take the best dt we can in the 2nd. And i think nnadi would be there. 2 seminoles i know but it would be bpa.

I want beef in this draft to help bosa and ingram out, the question is who?? Do we go with bug vita and hope he can just vince wilfork it be big enough to just hold the point of attack?? Do we take a hurst whose undersized and risk it. The dt prospects are good i just dont know which one i would be comfortable with in the first. I know i dont want hurst at 17 or payne at 17. Like i said earlier i dont really have a 1st round grade on any dt for where were at in the draft.

Another idea tho, dontari poe is a free agent do we throw money at him?? I think his price would be like 10 mill a year. I knows hes 27, give him a 3 year deal, 3 year/30 mill. Idk im just kicking tires on what would be best to try to get rivers and gates a ring

[Steve]

On wilkins if you watch him, he will take on blockers and best people, but most of the time hes doing what brett venebales wants him to, they use big dexter lawerence 6 ft 4 340 pounds for double teams, wilkins is often asked to only take on 1 blocker and watch the qb, because of ghe heavy linebacker blitzes venebales calls, thats the reason you see him wait sometimes, hes put on a delay because hes disruptive and an all around grest athlete.

maurice hurst i wouldnt have a problem with if we traded back some, i just wonder can he be an everydown dt, or would it be asking to much of him, i mean hes only 285, thats not alot for a dt especially when youre going against nfl centers and guards, if we take him we have to make sure he can consistently spilt the blockers, if nkt hes going to get stone walled. I mean i like him just that dts under 300 pounds make me nervous, especially when we need a run stuffer /pass rusher.

If were at 17 and derwin james falls to us we have to take him, hed be a ss in gus bradleys offense, and when he gets brought down into the bow like philips was it would give us a fast db whose a play maker. If that happens we take the best dt we can in the 2nd. And i think nnadi would be there. 2 seminoles i know but it would be bpa.

I want beef in this draft to help bosa and ingram out, the question is who?? Do we go with bug vita and hope he can just vince wilfork it be big enough to just hold the point of attack?? Do we take a hurst whose undersized and risk it. The dt prospects are good i just dont know which one i would be comfortable with in the first. I know i dont want hurst at 17 or payne at 17. Like i said earlier i dont really have a 1st round grade on any dt for where were at in the draft.

Another idea tho, dontari poe is a free agent do we throw money at him?? I think his price would be like 10 mill a year. I knows hes 27, give him a 3 year deal, 3 year/30 mill. Idk im just kicking tires on what would be best to try to get rivers and gates a ring

Wilkins may be doing what is asked of him, but can he do what an NFL DT needs to do? Wilkins would be a 3 tech DT in the NFL, so he needs to get upfield hard, penetrate and makes plays in the backfield and he doesn't do that. He is slow off the ball, plays high and doesn't shed very fast. He has the potential and measureables that people love, so he is an excellent project, but that is part of why so many high picks are busts. If you look at the guys who have had immediate success in the last couple of drafts, it is guys who tend to have good to great technique and do the sort of things that they are asked to do in the NFL. Guys like Bosa and Jack Conklin are playing the NFL style positions in college and are able to do it in the NFL.

Wilkins is disruptive and productive in college. If he plays the same way in the NFL, he is going to be ineffective. NFL RB and QB are not going to let him shed the block and run them down. The whole games works a lot quicker. He has to play the NFL style better. He needs to initiate the action. He needs to develop a quick first step, use his hands to get under the pads and then penetrate and makes plays. If he isn't doing that he is a project. I wouldn't draft Wilkins in the 1st round this year (if he had come out) because he is a project. Maybe he can develop himself into a NFL caliber DL instead of being just a guy with NFL tools.

Hurst is probably going to be a very high pick. If you look at NFL draft picks, guys who make impact plays (sacks, int) tend to be favored higher in the draft. He does the things that I describe above. He gets under blockers, gets leverage on them and plays the game in the other teams backfield. He doesn't give blockers the chance to get their hands on him. Hurst plays a lot of downs as a NT in the Michigan D. He takes on and defeats a lot of blocks and splits a lot of double teams. Again, I judge players by how they play technique. The whole point of the 3 tech DT in the over/under D is to penetrate because teams won't get to double team them. If we are allowing Hurst to be a 3 tech DT in our D, and we can't protect him from being double teamed, we need to rethink the entire defense, because we are failing to make it work. Liuget is an OK player, but he doesn't do much with the single team blocks he gets.

I don't care about getting size. Too many people simply assume big players are good and powerful. NFL is full of massive backup DL who suck. I am fine trying to draft big DL, but they have to be able to play. They have to play with leverage and use their hands. If they can't, they are a waste of a roster space. I like Payne not because he is 330lbs, but because he stays low, uses his hands well and can move. Vea is a project because when he stays low, and plays in a staggered stance to 1-gap, he can get penetration. Their size helps them, but it because they use it that they are effective. A player with sloppy technique who is big is just not worth even trying.

I wouldn't pay Dontari Poe $10 million per year. He is simply not worth it. We can find a player who can do as much or more than him for $500k. He is a horrible run stuffer. If we play him at 3 tech, he might be able to make some plays and blow up plays in the backfield. But he has to get in better shape, and we would have to get him on a snap count because at 340 lbs, he wears down too fast. I might try a 3yr/$10mill total ($3 mill per year), just to get a vet. But he is not going to play NT very well. I would rather play Palepoi at NT than Poe.

As far as James goes, I would think of him as a LB or SS in his rookie year, in the same way we tried to use Phillips or Addae. The only thing I am not sold on is he might not be a better FS than Boston, in which case Phillips and Addae are better down in the box and James could play FS

[Steve]

Watch the film on Rasheem Green. Hes cat quick for a 34 DE. He could probably be a speedy 3T for us. I would not be surprised if he times very well at the combine. Like possibly sub 4.85 range. Which for a DT is extremely athletic. If we are looking for someone on the inside with good pass rush and run stop ability he has a lot of potential. Only 20. Another young kid with a good ceiling and plenty of room for growth mentally and physically. Its like watching Derek Barnett from Tenn last year. Hes not a guy that looks like a great athlete but has a pretty refined skillset and moves a lot better than he looks. Green has good hands. And he gets really good leverage and is able to keep OL off of him and find the QB or ball carrier. He is always looking for the strip. He tackles very well. I think hes probably in the 3rd right now but will move up after a solid combine. Not a guy i love or anything but i like his hands and stiff arms a lot. Hes got a nice punch. And Bosa has really sold me on guys who have great hands and really good use of their arms. Green loves to prop up a blocker and then like a cat bounce of of him to make the kill on a QB or ball carrier. Just good awareness. He knows whats happening around him. Makes a lot of plays.

I watch the film and i see a Barnett type player who isnt going to blow you away with the stout body but will give you good technique and makes a lot of plays. Hes a little light at 275 but Green at 6'4 can add weight. Especially in his legs. Probably could play some DE as well. Im an SC fan so im a little biased. But i think the kid is going to be a very solid football player. High motor play maker.

I like Green too. I don't love him. He is a bit of a project, but he is very athletic and has some good initial quickness and flashes some technique. He just get caught peaking too much, which is something that can get fixed through good coaching and with plenty of film study. A lot of his draft status may come down to how coachable and if he is really ready to be a professional. But the tools are there.

If we end up going for a NT type in the 1st (Payne or Vea) then Green is a guy to look for in the 2nd (with a trade down to the bottom of the round) or 3rd type of guy. Our need has him as much more of a 3 tech guy, but he can certainly be a run down DE too. It may come down to that, because I don't think there is any way that Hurst falls to us.

[Fleet]

I like Green too. I don't love him. He is a bit of a project, but he is very athletic and has some good initial quickness and flashes some technique. He just get caught peaking too much, which is something that can get fixed through good coaching and with plenty of film study. A lot of his draft status may come down to how coachable and if he is really ready to be a professional. But the tools are there.

If we end up going for a NT type in the 1st (Payne or Vea) then Green is a guy to look for in the 2nd (with a trade down to the bottom of the round) or 3rd type of guy. Our need has him as much more of a 3 tech guy, but he can certainly be a run down DE too. It may come down to that, because I don't think there is any way that Hurst falls to us.

My buddy works for Michigan. He is all over Hurst as well. Hes been a guy ive been mentioning for months. Hes really an ideal fit for us. But if we go with another position and miss out on a guy like Philips in the 2nd i wouldn't mind a project like Green. I think Hurst will climb once all his film is digested. Hes just too productive and does a lot of things well. I think he will show well at the combine. His movement is pretty fluid. Good technique. Great hands and feet. I seem to always fall in love with smaller OL and DL. Just because i like the fact they have to really focus in on technique to compensate lack of size. Hurst would be a good start for us.

Been watching a little Jerome Baker OLB OSU. Hes probably got better TE/RB coverage skills than any LB we have. I wonder if he would be able to play WLB for us and also do some coverage stuff. Maybe a 3rd round pick for a kid like him. He just someone that interests me. I wouldnt be surprised if Bradley gets a guy this draft. Im guessing DT or LB. You upgrade those spots it probably makes our secondary even better. Not a lot of choices for that single high guy other than James and Harrison. James most likely gone. I think we may end up bringing back Boston and seeing how he grows under a coach like Bradley. Beef up the front....help the backfield. Verrett is back as well. We have 4 great CBs.

[Steve]

My buddy works for Michigan. He is all over Hurst as well. Hes been a guy ive been mentioning for months. Hes really an ideal fit for us. But if we go with another position and miss out on a guy like Philips in the 2nd i wouldn't mind a project like Green. I think Hurst will climb once all his film is digested. Hes just too productive and does a lot of things well. I think he will show well at the combine. His movement is pretty fluid. Good technique. Great hands and feet. I seem to always fall in love with smaller OL and DL. Just because i like the fact they have to really focus in on technique to compensate lack of size. Hurst would be a good start for us.

Been watching a little Jerome Baker OLB OSU. Hes probably got better TE/RB coverage skills than any LB we have. I wonder if he would be able to play WLB for us and also do some coverage stuff. Maybe a 3rd round pick for a kid like him. He just someone that interests me. I wouldnt be surprised if Bradley gets a guy this draft. Im guessing DT or LB. You upgrade those spots it probably makes our secondary even better. Not a lot of choices for that single high guy other than James and Harrison. James most likely gone. I think we may end up bringing back Boston and seeing how he grows under a coach like Bradley. Beef up the front....help the backfield. Verrett is back as well. We have 4 great CBs.

We need to stop talking about Hurst, because we aren't going to get him. I think he goes close to the top 10 and only falls a bit because of all the QB. But he would be perfect for us. Green would be a nice consilation prize, but he is a year or two away from being a huge impact guy. I hope Green shows poorly at the combine and any all star action/and pro day. He could go higher than we think just because he does some stuff well.

Baker to me is almost an in the box SS. I easily think he is a Will LB, a better Phillips if you want to think of him like that.

The single high S spot is always tough to fill, but Boston played well enough. I also think Addae could fill in there if we could find an in the box type SS to take Addae's place.

[Fleet]

We need to stop talking about Hurst, because we aren't going to get him. I think he goes close to the top 10 and only falls a bit because of all the QB. But he would be perfect for us. Green would be a nice consilation prize, but he is a year or two away from being a huge impact guy. I hope Green shows poorly at the combine and any all star action/and pro day. He could go higher than we think just because he does some stuff well.

Baker to me is almost an in the box SS. I easily think he is a Will LB, a better Phillips if you want to think of him like that.

The single high S spot is always tough to fill, but Boston played well enough. I also think Addae could fill in there if we could find an in the box type SS to take Addae's place.

I think hes probably top 10 as well. But i didnt think we would get Ingram either. There are a shit tonne of QBs..a couple RB/WRs and other players in front of him that could drop him to us. Im not going to stop talking about him. lol I always crush on a player. I think hes it.

Guys like Vea and Payne really didnt put up great TFL numbers. I tend to be drawn towards players who are active in the backfield. Another guy to study is Harrison Phillips. He and Hurst may be the most active in offensive backfields.

[Formula 21]

[Attack]

I'd be ok with taking Hurst in the first round. He really needs to have skills/production somewhat similar to Aaron Donald, though, given his size, or he'll get pushed around. Otherwise, Payne or Vea in round 1.

I think Derwin James will test off the charts at the combine and won't fall to 17, unless some character issues surface.

If Billy Price falls to the end of round 1 or beginning of round 2, I would want Telesco to trade up for him (if we don't sign Jensen, the C from the Ravens). I have yet to read anything negative about his play or character. If he is the goods, he will be our C for the next 12 years, and will be a team leader/captain in a few yrs.

Adding Hurst or Payne on D and Price would bolster both lines. Then, would look to add a S, TE, RB, and/or LB, and a K.

[Attack]

It will be interesting to see how well Jalen Ramsey defends Gronk, if he's defending him one on one or with help. I'd like to see if there is anyone in the draft or free agency that we could add that would be able to lock Gronk down the way Eric Berry did in the first game this past season. There are some big safeties in this year's draft.

[Sgt Schultz]

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