Welcome JT Woods, DB, Baylor (R3, #79)

[dmac_bolt]

I have never suggested that Woods will be a bust. I have stated that we wasted draft capital by reaching for a consensus late 4th round player in the middle of the third round and that wasting draft capital is a bad thing as it often means that the wasting team's talent level relative to other teams not wasting draft capital has just been diminished. That is, we are not keeping up with the Joneses when we are guilty of reaching.

I have suggested that part of what Staley emphasized as the basis for drafting Woods, his alleged ball hawking prowess, is overstated. Looking at the interceptions made by Woods, it is clear that most of them were flukish plays on which Woods did not have the receiver covered, but the ball was badly overthrown right to him or ricocheted off of another defender right into his lap. The volume of those kinds of plays is typically not duplicated from season to season. I cited Antonio Cromartie's 2007 season as an example of that concept as Cromartie never produced even half of the number of INTs he produced in his 2007 season in any other season of his career.

While I do agree that there can be investigatory overlap among pundits to a degree, I disagree with the notion that the views of hundreds of pundits forming their own conclusions is somehow some sort of herd mentality. If a GM sees that his view is an outlier versus the consensus, especially where the GM has the player ranked much higher than the consensus, the GM acts at his own peril when he does not consider the possibility that maybe he was the only one that got it wrong instead of being the only one that got it right. It is a huge red flag.

In those cases, a GM should always take the player in the consensus range. By doing so, if the GM is right, he has secured extra value. If he is wrong and the consensus is right, then no value has been lost as the GM gets the player in his correct value range.

You overstate the gifts significantly. You overstate the difference between 3rd and 4th rd significantly and ignore the fact that some positions have runs and a guy slotted for pic 20 of round can very often go at 5 and vice versa. If Staley needed a blazing fast ball hawking safety to make his defense work and allow him to fully unleash James, and mid-fourth was a gamble his guy would be there, then its not a horrible overreach.

You say that all of Cro’s picks his big year were fluke gifts and i call complete bullshit on that hysterical untrue claim. I was standing on the field the game he picked the shit out of Manning, those were not gifts he was balling up and over receivers and taking that shit away. He had a shitload of personal and personality issues that i think are what really led to his drop in production. But he didn’t just sit in centerfield collecting gifts from QBs his big year, thats horseshit.

I watched all of Woods pics - he jumped routes many times to make picks, they weren’t just a half dozen tips deep all into the back of the secondary he was just randomly and luckily sitting in. Your analysis is shit from start to finish and i tried to be polite and say maybe because we really don’t know. You in particular don’t know.

go watch this clip and tell me that was a gift. Just stupid untrue fantasy.

https://youtu.be/GzCAI02cPXE

[Maniaque 6]

Fans need consensus board to make their mock.
I don't think GMs need it.
If a GM likes a guy at 79, no matter what pundits say about him
It's how you got a P. Mahomes

[RobH]

The issue is the amount of rigidity in belief in the "consensus board", such that it even exists.

Man, I wish you had been my stats professor.

[FoutsFan]

The issue is the amount of rigidity in belief in the "consensus board", such that it even exists.

First, consensus only functions when people are doing independent and thourough work. The hundreds of big boards are not doing hours of film study on hundreds of prospects and then propoerly putting them in order. A handful do that. Jeremiah, Brugler, PFF, Cosell, maybe bleacher report, draft network, a couple others. Why dilute their actual work with boards put together by people based on what they read elsewhere without ever watching a minute of film?

Second, consensus rankings don't work well with bimodal distributions. For example, last year Josh Palmer was a 3rd round pick on about half of the big boards and a 5th or 6th round pick on about half of big boards. This averaged to a 4th round pick even though almost no one had him there. Does this make sense to use an average? Of course not. If we assume NFL team boards have the same bimodal distribution, he has about a 50% chance of going in the 3rd and a 50% of going in the 4th and very little chance of going later. In a lot of ways player values are determined by who values him the most.

Third, the value delta between picks decreases as you go later into the draft. The value difference between picks 1 and 10 is greater than the difference between 11 and 20 is greater than the difference between 31 and 40 is greater than the difference between 81 and 150. It's very left skew. Long term data validates this for actual draft results (and is significantly more accurate than "consensus boards".) So reaches just don't really matter after a certain point because the value distribution flattens out, even IF these boards were doing thourough scouting of hundreds of prospects, which they are not.

Consensus steals are often not actual steals in hindsight. Consensus reaches are often not actual reaches in hindsight.

The culmination is that this is all just not very accurate OR precise. Nate Hobbs was a consensus UDFA who LVR "reached for" in the 6th. If the draft was redone one year later he'd be a 1st or 2nd round pick. Is he still a reach? Or was the consensus very wrong? Why was it so wrong?

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com...021/nate-hobbs

https://theathletic.com/2530534/2021...ospects/?amp=1

There is no "consensus" that is just a made up term to help people justify their opinions and beliefs in anything. In this case it happens to be the NFL draft. If a consensus really existed then the draft would play out just like the mocks and there would be no surprises.

[La Costa Boy]

I can’t believe you just called out Pierce Brosnan like that.

He was a pretty lousy Bond

[Critty]

You overstate the gifts significantly. You overstate the difference between 3rd and 4th rd significantly and ignore the fact that some positions have runs and a guy slotted for pic 20 of round can very often go at 5 and vice versa. If Staley needed a blazing fast ball hawking safety to make his defense work and allow him to fully unleash James, and mid-fourth was a gamble his guy would be there, then its not a horrible overreach.

You say that all of Cro’s picks his big year were fluke gifts and i call complete bullshit on that hysterical untrue claim. I was standing on the field the game he picked the shit out of Manning, those were not gifts he was balling up and over receivers and taking that shit away. He had a shitload of personal and personality issues that i think are what really led to his drop in production. But he didn’t just sit in centerfield collecting gifts from QBs his big year, thats horseshit.

I watched all of Woods pics - he jumped routes many times to make picks, they weren’t just a half dozen tips deep all into the back of the secondary he was just randomly and luckily sitting in. Your analysis is shit from start to finish and i tried to be polite and say maybe because we really don’t know. You in particular don’t know.

go watch this clip and tell me that was a gift. Just stupid untrue fantasy.

https://youtu.be/GzCAI02cPXE

When a guy somehow is often in the right place at the right time and capable of grabbing that gift......that is a skill expressing itself........otherwise every DB would find themselves in the right place and actual grab the rock. And we know how many DBs have hands of stone and drop these gifts and/or are not quite in the right place to grab it.

The opponent offense will often leave a few presents hanging around during a game .....can a defensive player find and grab them.

[blueman]

There is no "consensus" that is just a made up term to help people justify their opinions and beliefs in anything. In this case it happens to be the NFL draft. If a consensus really existed then the draft would play out just like the mocks and there would be no surprises.

Sure there would: since when do college players ever meet pro expectations consistently? The draft might go as planned, sure, but that’s no guarantee the players perform as expected. Crap, meet shoot.

[blueman]

He was a pretty lousy Bond

The worst, yep.

[RobH]

The worst, yep.

I don't think he was as robotic as Daniel Craig.

[Boltnut]

Hunter Renfrow was a consensus 5th round pick. Would it have been wrong for any team to take him in the 3rd? We even know, with hindsight, that he lasted to the 5th.

Cooper Kupp was consensus #77 ranking (right before Bucky Hodges @#78)...

https://zonecoverage.com/2017/featured/the-2017-consensus-big-board-complete-300-player-rankings/

His nfl.com combine grade was 6.20 (Eventually be an average starter).

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/cooper-kupp/32004b55-5053-4597-b958-87408c31956f

[powderblueboy]

Cooper Kupp was consensus #77 ranking (right before Bucky Hodges @#78)...

https://zonecoverage.com/2017/featured/the-2017-consensus-big-board-complete-300-player-rankings/

His nfl.com combine grade was 6.20 (Eventually be an average starter).

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/cooper-kupp/32004b55-5053-4597-b958-87408c31956f

Would you rather recruit a 5 star player or a 3 star player?

Sometimes the 3 star player turns out better: you don't have the luxury of hindsight with draft picks.

Between pick #77 and 78, the consensus difference is negligible: you can choose your Cooper kupp.

- this is Chaincrusher approved.

[equivocation]

Would you rather recruit a 5 star player or a 3 star player?

Sometimes the 3 star player turns out better: you don't have the luxury of hindsight with draft picks.

Between pick #77 and 78, the consensus difference is negligible: you can choose your Cooper kupp.

- this is Chaincrusher approved.

Except right now we're arguing about which 3* is better. There are 40x as many 3* as 5* recruits (about 1300 vs 30) Scale to NFL draft class sizes and you get about 3 5*, 40 4*, and 130 3*. So picks 46-175.