2024 Chargers Draft Superthread - Prospect Discussion - Draft Has Started

[DerwinBosa]

And all the trade back stuff yeah we’ll get our guy there. The Arizona Cardinals were cocky like that to. They had no thought of Trading up or trading back and they just chilled and thought they were getting Patrick Mahomes. Then Kansas City Jumped them and got Patrick Mahomes and traded up.

Bad example. If it had been known that Mahomes was going to turn into what he is now, he would have gone first overall in that draft.

A lot of teams have had great success trading back. Jimmy Johnson was a master of it with the Cowboys. So was Bill Walsh with the 49ers. Multiple general managers who didn't trade back made huge mistakes. Dave Gettleman, the former general manager of the New York Giants, said he turned the phones off in the draft room when he took Saquon Barkley second overall in 2018. Imagine how much better the Giants would be now if Gettleman had traded back and taken Josh Allen, the quarterback, who went seventh overall in that draft. Gettleman would have even been better off trading down and taking offensive guard Quenton Nelson, a six-time Pro Bowler and four-time All-Pro who went sixth overall in that draft.

Our previous general manager, Tom Telesco, never traded back, which I find amazing--in a very bad way. I don't think Hortiz will make that same mistake.

[powderblueboy]

Actually A.J. Smith never drafted an offensive lineman in the first round, and one of his worst mistakes was not addressing the right tackle spot when Jeromey Clary was there the majority of the time. The offensive line's deterioration was one of the biggest reasons why A.J. was fired.

All of these "amazing skill position players." What expertise do you possess leads you to believe Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze will be any better than Kevin White (seventh overall pick in 2015), Corey Davis (fifth overall pick in 2017), or John Ross (ninth overall pick in 2017)? I'm sure if White, Davis, and Ross were coming out now you'd be calling them "amazing," too.

And what makes one think Alt will not be the next Robert Gallery?

This goes to show that there Is a difference between a rookie with great prospects and an actual bonafide NFL star.
Trading back for an extra 2nd/3rd round pick is not guaranteed to fill any additional holes.

it might have the opposite effect of creating more holes, because you are less guaranteed of hitting with any draft pick.

[eaterfan]

And what makes one think Alt will not be the next Robert Gallery?

This goes to show that there Is a difference between a rookie with great prospects and an actual bonafide NFL star.
Trading back for an extra 2nd/3rd round pick is not guaranteed to fill any additional holes.

it might have the opposite effect of creating more holes, because you are less guaranteed of hitting with any draft pick.

I think your are making 2 separate arguments:

1 - an OT can bust just like a WR.

This is true. Any position can bust. Look at position success rates for players drafted in the top 10, top 5, 1st Rd. Etc. You also have to do it for comparable prospects. A WR taken at 10 one year might not be in the same league as 10 another year.. Same for OT. It should be noted that changing from RT to LT and vice versa can affect success rates.

2 - trading down creates more holes because teams are less likely to hit on a player.

Draft evals are good! You are more likely to find stars, starters, and contributors the higher up in the draft you go! There's tons of research out there about the value of each pick. Read it! It's pretty interesting stuff and a lot of it comes with a chart showing the likely value of the players selected at any spot. Teams can use it to trade up or down to ensure they aren't worsening their chances of finding contributors!

[wu-dai clan]

Tom Telesco's biggest mistake was failing to drafr a successor to Nick Hardwick during the twilight of Nick's career.

A young Center could have learned a great deal before taking on the role.

Joe Alt continues to be ranked top 5 in this draft, amongst elite QBs and generational WRs.

Now comes Zach Frazier was a dominating HS wrestler, had a 4.0 GPA AT WVU, and made line calls.

What posters are missing is the profound impact going Alt-Frazier 1-2 woild have on our entire football team.

There are factors that must be considered, but we would definitely be able to run the football lol.

[MusicMakerInMe]

Actually A.J. Smith never drafted an offensive lineman in the first round, and one of his worst mistakes was not addressing the right tackle spot when Jeromey Clary was there the majority of the time. The offensive line's deterioration was one of the biggest reasons why A.J. was fired.

All of these "amazing skill position players." What expertise do you possess leads you to believe Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze will be any better than Kevin White (seventh overall pick in 2015), Corey Davis (fifth overall pick in 2017), or John Ross (ninth overall pick in 2017)? I'm sure if White, Davis, and Ross were coming out now you'd be calling them "amazing," too.

Yup.

A.J Brown, D.K Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen were not taken in the first round, much less the top 10. Those guys are pretty good.

WR has maybe the lowest average grade when taken in the top 10. Those 3-4 WR's people are targeting early have a high bust rate. It's unlikely all four of them thrive.

Meanwhile look at the number of Super Bowl-winning and Pro Bowl-selected OT's (and really OL) in general who are drafted in the first round and 2nd rounds.

My ideal offseason would be:
Trade back, get Fuaga and extra draft picks.
Draft a stellar 2nd round WR to give Justin Herbert a target to dime up
Another stellar WR, OL or maybe a CB like that guy from FSU in the 2nd round.
Pick up Josh Jacobs who runs hard and falls forward complimenting a menacing team in the trenches. Smash mouth football won these Play-offs. I want that.

We can hit FA signing down the road if they need starpower at WR (something Joe Hortiz doesn't shy away from).

That's an offense that can not only win in SoFi, but ugly weather.

[Boltnut]

This is kinda my thing... All these amazing skill position players that are going to "likely" have amazing careers and we want an OT which will play RT with the #5 pick??? That's some AJ level incompetence...

Not really. Not when you realize what Harbaugh wants to do. He's said it over and over again... he wants to run the ball, protect the QB, and play defense. He specifically brought in Greg Roman to help him run the ball. When Harbaugh and Roman were together in SF, they had 2 first round tackles playing for them... so it's not "AJ level incompetence" to believe they may want that again. The whole offense runs through the QB and the OL. They help you run, they help you pass, They help you control the ball in the 4th quarter and ice the game... help you keep MaHommes on the bench the last 5 minutes of the game.

The biggest reason you trade back, though... the extra picks help you build the defense. The #2 and #3 defenses just played in the Super Bowl. Defense still win championships. If you can get an extra 2nd rounder... and pair that 2nd round center with a 2nd round DT. Well, now you've started to understand that Harbaugh/Minter/Roman philosophy of "build from the inside out". An extra 3rd rounder gets you a LB that can do all of the things Minter needs them to do. An extra 4th rounder may get you that RB, WR or TE you crave... but at a much better cost/value. And those "lesser" playmakers have a better OL to run through anyways.

The trade back to #10-14 just makes too much sense when you consider the totality of it all.

[Bolt4Knob]

Not really. Not when you realize what Harbaugh wants to do. He's said it over and over again... he wants to run the ball, protect the QB, and play defense. He specifically brought in Greg Roman to help him run the ball. When Harbaugh and Roman were together in SF, they had 2 first round tackles playing for them... so it's not "AJ level incompetence" to believe they may want that again. The whole offense runs through the QB and the OL. They help you run, they help you pass, They help you control the ball in the 4th quarter and ice the game... help you keep MaHommes on the bench the last 5 minutes of the game.

The biggest reason you trade back, though... the extra picks help you build the defense. The #2 and #3 defenses just played in the Super Bowl. Defense still win championships. If you can get an extra 2nd rounder... and pair that 2nd round center with a 2nd round DT. Well, now you've started to understand that Harbaugh/Minter/Roman philosophy of "build from the inside out". An extra 3rd rounder gets you a LB that can do all of the things Minter needs them to do. An extra 4th rounder may get you that RB, WR or TE you crave... but at a much better cost/value. And those "lesser" playmakers have a better OL to run through anyways.

The trade back to #10-14 just makes too much sense when you consider the totality of it all.

#8-11

Fixed it for you

I do not want to go lower than 8 but agree in premise that unless the trade value doesn't measure up to the 5th pick in the draft - trading back makes a lot of sense as the Chargers need more than 1 player
But, if the trade value for the 5th pick is not there, I am not trading back to trade back.

[Boltnut]

As far as the draft goes, nothing is for sure. The only certainty I have... the player you bypassed in the 2nd... or 3rd... or 4th... will have 0-impact on your team. I'm 100% certain of that. He won't bust on you, but he won't play for you either.

[Topcat]

Tom Telesco's biggest mistake was failing to drafr a successor to Nick Hardwick during the twilight of Nick's career.

A young Center could have learned a great deal before taking on the role.

Joe Alt continues to be ranked top 5 in this draft, amongst elite QBs and generational WRs.

Now comes Zach Frazier was a dominating HS wrestler, had a 4.0 GPA AT WVU, and made line calls.

What posters are missing is the profound impact going Alt-Frazier 1-2 woild have on our entire football team.

There are factors that must be considered, but we would definitely be able to run the football lol.

Yep...TT waited until the end of Hardwick's career, then drafted Chris Watt in round 3 and the Bolts tried to move him from G to C. I'm not a big fan of these position changes. They frequently don't work out. Predictably, Watt had issues at C, then got injured. The Bolts had NO backup plan at C, and were forced to throw Trevor Robinson, a UDFA, into the C spot. Robinson tried, but was overwhelmed as a raw rook, allowing a ton of pressures and sacks. You just gotta invest in the line, plain and simple...

[dmac_bolt]

gotta remember that these GMs want to keep their jobs, and while trading the farm for your fifth overall might suit us, 1 it doesn't bode well for their job security, and....

on the other hand/alternatively 2 it doesn't serve Hortiz well to rape 'n pillage other GMs, coz it won't be before long that other teams/GMs are hesitant/unwilling to trade w/him.

1 Desperate GMs do it every year. They all conclude, without fail, that there is nothing less secure than not having a QB. I don't think teams want to trade the entire farm for a skill player though.
2 zero concern on this, thats made up. The next GM won't be afraid trade with him regardless of a trade a different GM made with him in the past. just nothing to support this fear.

[Formula 21]

Here's some under the radar candidates for @ #183, #223, #256
from Emory Hunt, THE Sammy Small School expert.

3. Isaiah Davis, RB, South Dakota State

I believe Davis has feature-back potential. His game reminds me a lot of former Minnesota Vikingsgreat Robert Smith. At 6-foot and 220 pounds, Davis has the requisite size and skill combination that yields itself to him being someone's lead back. Over the course of his career with the Jackrabbits, he's also shown he has a knack for making the big play at the right time.

[Ghost of Quacksaw]

And what makes one think Alt will not be the next Robert Gallery?.

Cameron Heyward is the son of Craig Heyward.

Cameron Jordon is the son of Steve Jordan.

Patrick Surtain is the son of Pat Surtain.

You get the picture. Joe Alt is the son of John Alt. There's a bloodline component that gives Alt a credibility that a majority of other prospects DON'T possess.

That said, it would appear that this draft class provides better value than Joe Alt through the first eight selections. IMO.