Official 2018 Draft Thread- We Have the 17th Pick

[bonehead]

[Formula 21]

I agree Roquan is not going to take on an OL and win, he has to slip around the guy, but he does have the speed and agility to match up in coverage.

PFF has him giving up .56 yards per play in coverage, 1st among LBs. No matter how you grade him, that is an easy calc to do.

And do you think any of our DBs (who would be playing instead of Smith) are going to take on a OL and win?

Smith goes early because he can run, cover and tackle, not because he is a thumper.

[chargerkdb]

He is a flier, the fatties need to occupy blockers for him to do his thing.

[Steve]

I continue to believe that Phillips played so much only because our LBs were horrid. Better LBs that can cover the pass and Are effective tacklers closer to the LOS are needed. And if Phillips at 210 pounds runs a 4.6, we can look to give him competition with a 230 pound LB that runs a 4.6 and can cover as well and provide a more physical presence.

Only thing wrong with that reasonsing is why are so many other NFL Teams playing 75%+ of their defensive snaps in their nickle and dime? That is the NORM. Unless we draft a LB to replace Perryman, I find it hard to believe that a LB is going to see much time on the field.

And just because a LB runs in the 4.6 range doesn't mean they can cover as well. A lot of pass coverage is reaction time and how well the player changes direction. S and smallish LB change direction and close on the ball a lot better than most LB. Guys like Boss Bailey (Champ Bailey's "little" brother), was a 4.4 40 guy who was 230 ish, and he couldn't cover anyone. He could run himself out of plays (both pass and run) in record time.

Most college LB have a lot to learn about pass coverage and it will depend on how quickly they pick things up. Deion Jones picked things up extremely quickly, and that was why he was so successful for Atlanta.

Roquan Smith might be a good player to add, but I don't think he is ready to play. His man to man coverage is sloppy at time, and he takes some bad angles. I would like to see him drop some weight and go back to playing at his college weight. He looked more fluid as a college player than he did in the drill work that is floating around on the internet. It is probably him trying to bulk up to 235 lb that is hurting his movement. But in film, you see him next to the Georgia DB, and he is a SS sized player, which is fine.

As far as the rest of the LB go, it all depends on what we are looking for. If we want a Mike LB to replace Perryman, than Edmunds or Vander Esch, are the ones, but then it is because Perryman is going to disappear at the end of the year. And yes, I know Perryman played Will, that was because Pullard was playing Mike better than Brown was playing Will. It was just a thing to get the 3 best true LB on the field in the base package.

Notice all these LB that the Bolts are sending Richard Smith (LB coach) to scout are all smallish, pumped up SS/LB hybrids. If we are looking for a true Will LB, then it will probably be a smaller LB like Smith, Evans, Leonard, Oren Burks, Dorian O'Daniel type guys. They are small LB or big S, and that is probably mcuh more useful if we can live with Perryman.

Otto LB is really more of a pass rusher in waiting. I don't care who we get, they are only getting token reps to sub in for Bosa and Ingram, as well as playing base OLB setting the edge. Since Ingram and Bosa can slide inside, spending a higher pick who can mix in as both a sub and 3rd and 4th pass rusher is a good way to keep everyone fresh. Too many top pass rushers wear down over a long season if they don't get rotated. Eagles best rush guys had a lot left in their tank for the playoffs last year, and it showed with the strip sack on Brady in the 4th quarter.

[Steve]

It's not a matter of not trying to upgrade, but a matter of putting resources (draft picks or FA dollars) into positions that would lead to the most productive defense.

Would spend a top pick on a guy who only plays sparingly, and who is not in a position to make a splash play (the LB)?

Or pick a player who plays 75% of the snaps, and is on the field when the other team puts the ball up where the defense can go and get it and make splash plays (S)?

I'm not saying I wouldn't upgrade, but spend the picks on LB later in the draft, or on cheaper FA so that the best resources go into the players that are going to have the biggest impact.

[blueman]

We have starting DBs. What rookie safety will take time away from Phillips or Addae? Other than James who we have no shot at. Harrison? Again, we use other LBs than Perryman, who do we have signed currently you want to see in those 25% of the snaps not exclusively covered by the starter? And to help stop the run/cover a TE out of the backfield? If we were using Perryman out of place, isn’t that cause for an upgrade - not a developmental player, but a high pick guy who is ready now and has better attributes than any LB signed not named Perryman? We used journeyman type LBs last year, how did that work out for us?

Draft LB high this year, TT, please.

[Steve]

Then draft DL. Their production was MUCH worse than the LB (which wasn't very good).

LB don't start anymore, so why draft guys to sit on the bench. The only teams we play that use extra TE and FB are Oakland (who will probably not do as much of that with Gruden) and the Jets (who we probably won't play). Unless we want LB who are going to be run ragged by WR, they simply will not get on the field.

[Formula 21]

Right now, teams don't seem to want to pay safeties in FA. I don't think they want to play DTs much either unless they can rush the passer. Who's got value on D anymore? CBs and Edge rushers?

Somebody has to have value in the middle.

[chargerkdb]

[Steve]

First, if we are such a putrid defense, how is it that we finished 9-7 and were so close to winning so many others? Teams are scoring more points than they did in the past. When they run, they just don't sustain drives and get enough big plays to score a lot of points. Teams have to throw more now, and if you have to be better at one than the other, passing yards are the only way for teams to score enough points to be competitive.

Just about all the long runs are due to people making assignment mistakes or missing tackles. Most of those runs were early in the season and stopped after we switched to our dime D. When the smaller, less physical players are better run defenders, it usually is a tackling thing. Yes, the LB are not great, and need to do a better job of attacking the line, but our best run D performances came in our dime. It is also worth noting that the same bunch of LB who cannot play in their own end of the field were part of one of the best red zone defenses.

Better DT play would be a big help too. We have to find a way to penetrate and make plays in the backfield. Nothing stops a running game like a tackle for a loss, or other early down sacks. That is why Liuget is such a dead end. We need to make some negative plays now and again makes offenses attack us differently. They simply cannot afford to be patient and wear us down, running at us play after play, because of one bad play screws the whole drive up.

The 40 plus thing will take care of itself. That is luck as much as anything. Only a small percentage of runs become long runs, and it has to happen in your own territory. It was just bad luck that it happened when we had the territory to give up. If the same breakdown happens in your own territory, you give up a lot less yardage. It's largely luck.

The biggest thing any team can do to stop teams from running on us is to just get a lead. Game situations are one of the best ways to get teams to abandon their game plans. If they want to run the ball and kill the clock, we can safely let them do it. It hurts them more than the points it gives up.

[chargerkdb]

Ok our defense is not putrid. Im not saying that by any stretch. But we have to be improve against the run. Whether or not we go with a small backer or safety they wont improve much without better Dline play. The Dline guys rotate too, none of the fatties or backers are going to have comparable snap counts to the DB's just based on situationals. Its a passing league, DB's and a lot of them will see snaps but that doesnt mean we cant draft dline and linebackers high because they arent on the field as long.

[blueman]

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

http://www.chargers.com/news/2018/03/03/lt-names-his-rb-targets-bolts

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

First Name:	LaDainian
Last Name:	Tomlinson
Nickname:
Position:	RB
College:	Texas Christian
Draft Class:	2001
Draft Age:	21.10

Player Dimensions

Height:	70.30 inches
Weight:	221 pounds
BMI:	32.2
Arm Length:	31.00 inches
Hand Size:	9.00 inches
Front Shoulder:	18.5 inches
Back Shoulder:	18.0 inches

Measurables

40 Yard Dash:	4.43 seconds
40 Yard (MPH):	18.47 (MPH)
20 Yard Dash:	2.56 seconds
10 Yard Dash:	1.52 seconds
Bench Press:	18 reps (225 lb)
Wonderlic:	(N/A) (0-50)
QB Ball Velocity:	(N/A) (MPH)

Vertical Leap:	40.5 inches
Broad Jump:	124 inches
20 Yd Shuttle:	4.21 seconds
Shuttle Split:	(N/A) seconds
Three Cone:	6.84 seconds
60 Yd Shuttle:	11.19 seconds
Four Square:	(N/A) seconds

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

First Name:	Melvin
Last Name:	Gordon
Nickname:
Position:	RB
College:	Wisconsin
Draft Class:	2015
Draft Age:	22.0

Player Dimensions

Height:	72.63 inches
Weight:	215 pounds
BMI:	29.35
Arm Length:	32.38 inches
Hand Size:	9.75 inches
Front Shoulder:	(N/A) inches
Back Shoulder:	(N/A) inches

Measurables

40 Yard Dash:	4.52 seconds
40 Yard (MPH):	18.1 (MPH)
20 Yard Dash:	2.66 seconds
10 Yard Dash:	1.62 seconds
Bench Press:	19 reps (225 lb)
Wonderlic:	20 (0-50)
QB Ball Velocity:	(N/A) (MPH)

Vertical Leap:	35.0 inches
Broad Jump:	126 inches
20 Yd Shuttle:	4.07 seconds
Shuttle Split:	(N/A) seconds
Three Cone:	7.04 seconds
60 Yd Shuttle:	11.00 seconds
Four Square:	(N/A) seconds

[Steve]

So you want to use a 1st round pick on a player who is going to be on the field for something like 375 snaps? They are going to get something like 65 tackles, and probably 1 sack and maybe 1 int. That's a good use of a 1st round pick. After we ditch Perryman, because a 1st round LB would be the only one worth paying, would get up to a couple 2-5 sacks, maybe 3-4 int and 1 or 2 fumble recovery. Or we can get 80-90% of that production with a later round pick, or a street FA LB who is a June 1st cut. The difference between a top LB and the average one is pretty small. Spending a top pick and ton of money for an ILB is simply not worth it.

The guy who is the new DC for the Giants plays his base D the most of any NFL Team. 65% of the time they play their nickel and dime packages (over the last 3 years, http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2...-bill-barnwell). You can be stupid about it all you want, but LB are role players. Even the 1 guy

Again, your the one saying we don't need to draft new ones. Good LB get taken in the middle and later rounds all the time. I am saying that it is a waste to draft a high pick to sit them on the bench. Spending top picks on LB. The only way making a top pick at LB is if we plan to get rid of Perryman, who is our only decent LB. It's just not worth the investment to spend a top pick on a player who sits on the bench. a 1st or 2nd round pick to be a ST star?

DT is the biggest need on D. Nothing more than average production despite the attention teams have to play at DE. Liuget hasn't been productive in years. Mebane is fading fast. We NEED a DT. Not necessarily in round one, but we need help at DT. Even another DE makes sense since both Bosa and Ingram can spend some time inside on rush downs. A 1st round pick to allow more of a rotation, and let Bosa and Ingram be fresher will improve their production, and upgrades the inside rush. 3 guys getting snaps at just 2 positions means about 650 snaps each, and if they slide inside, then that is, even more, snaps each. DE is not a position I would rule out, although the top DE rarely last until 17.

And there is plenty of room to improve at S. How many people think that Phillips or Addae are anything more than average? They both had career years and proved how well the dime package works against the run and pass. The dime package is 20 yards per game less rushing than the nickel. Add better players there and it gets even better. BUt the differential between the better S and the average guys is a lot higher. More splash plays.

If I was going to draft a LB, it would be a OTTO LB, who is not going to play that many snaps at OLB, but would be used mostly as another edge rusher. Another LEO rush LB to sub with Ingram and Bosa (and McCain) are just another way to rotate the rushers. But if we draft him, he isn't going to play LB, he would be a pass rusher 1st, a "starting" (what a fucking joke that term is) LB.

NFL teams are playing more and more DB more of the time. drafting a guy like Griffin or James at S mean that our dime package can be on the field even more, not less. That is where we get the best bang for the buck. Half the teams in the NFL have a big S who plays the LB spot, just like Phillips did, who played the spot pretty well last year. You can call them S if you want, or you can call them LB, but Phillips is our best LB, and he should be upgraded with another player like him (or Addae).

The other thing is trying to upgrade RT, OG (and play Lamp at RT) or even TE. Trade down and add a pick or so in the late 2nd (or next year) or 3rd, and add depth at a position we can use.

People can say that they know who will be available in the 1st are kidding themselves. Mock drafts are poor indicators of actual draft selections. Historically, the best mock draft guy gets less than 50% of the picks right, and the 1st round if comparatively easy. With so much uncertainty about Baker Mayfield and Jackson, plus the RB's (thinking Guice)