Official 2018 Draft Thread- We Have the 17th Pick

[Formula 21]

This is how I see the draft going with a lot of trades and the big guys falling to the 2nd half of the first round.

PFW NFL Draft: Arthur Arkush's mock draft 1.0




Arthur's mock draft 1.0, including two teams trading up for quarterbacks and five combined passers but only one running back, first appeared in our free draft newsletter Wednesday morning.

Welcome to my mock 1.0, which features a QB run early, an ILB run late and more first-round guards than safeties and running backs combined. Indeed, it's an unpredictable year, in which there figure to be more trades than I've projected here, but there will be more mocks. For now, enjoy my first stab at how things could unfold on April 26.


Whether Jets forced John Dorsey's hand or not, Darnold appears to strike the best balance of high ceiling-high floor among the top QB prospects.

: Dave Gettleman's trade of Jason Pierre-Paul to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers clears the way for Chubb, a better fit for James Bettcher's 'D' and the new GM's hand-picked defensive centerpiece.

Editor's note: The first version of this mock draft, which was released prior to Thursday's trade, had the Giants selecting Penn State RB Saquon Barkley.

The good news: Jets have vets in the QB room to build the bridge to Allen. The bad news: Everything else about this pick.

: If John Dorsey can't find a trade-down partner, he'll pair the draft's best runner with Darnold to complete the Browns' backfield transformation.

Editor's note: The first version of this mock draft, which was released prior to Thursday's trade of Jason Pierre-Paul from the New York Giants to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, had the Browns selecting North Carolina State EDGE Bradley Chubb and Barkley going to the Giants.

I wanted to play it safe for John Elway with Quenton Nelson, but he'll see too much of himself in Mayfield to bypass.

Sensational value in trading down with Jets and sensational value with this pick (yes, I know Nelson's a guard).

VH3 hasn't put it together, so here's the CB1 replacement plan with Brent Grimes' end nigh.

If Elway sees himself in Mayfield, John Lynch might see a more athletic version of himself in James.

10. Buffalo Bills (trade with Oakland Raiders): UCLA QB Josh Rosen: He's always been Buffalo's guy, and the Bills refuse to let him potentially land in the division.

Mike Tannenbaum can't screw this one up.

Is he an off-the-ball 'backer? It's their top need. Is he an edge rusher? One-man band Khalil Mack welcomes it.

Like Miami, after value sensor hasn't worked this offseason, Washington hits jackpot to create turbo thumping ILB tandem of Smith-Zach Brown.

Paired with Kevin King, Alexander gives CB-lacking Pack a towering duo with elite press-man potential for Mike Pettine to unlock.

Ozzie Newsome won't be happy, but Sam Bradford and Larry Fitzgerald will.

: Admittedly a bit rich, but I love the symmetry of Newsome's first and last first-rounders as Ravens boss being mauling O-linemen.

The Bolts don't have a ton of needs, but an instinctive 'backer who can fly around behind Bosa-Ingram is (was) one of them.

Payne reunites with Jarran Reed to form next generation of elite run-stuffing Seahawks. Unlike Reed, Payne will pressure NFL QBs.

As Demarcus Lawrence plays on the tag, Landry adds juice to stable alongside David Irving and 2017 top pick Taco Charlton.

Matt Patricia gets his two-gapping behemoth to let fast and physical linebackers Jarrad Davis, Christian Jones and Devon Kennard fly freely.

Pacman is gone. Vontaze Burfict could be, too. And Cincy all in on fixing O-line. A new day under same old Marvin Lewis?

Buffalo brass values versatile playmaking linebackers (see: Carolina Panthers) and Vander Esch has a special skill set.

Steelers and Saints both eyeing potential 2019 QB reboots. So are Jags, who cut in line for Blake Bortles' heir.

Carolina needs playmakers, not blazers at corner for their zone-based 'D,' and Jackson has elite ball skills, if not stop-watch speed.

Perhaps too high here, but Leonard's unique and will help solve Tennessee's RB coverage woes and appeal to Mike Vrabel.

Thomas Dimitroff and Dan Quinn covet special athletes for their schemes, and Bryan fills that bill and gives them some Grady Jarrett insurance.

Their pursuit of Jimmy Graham fell short, so Sean Payton goes back to SEC country for another mismatch piece for Drew Brees.

They had eyes for Vander Esch and Rudolph, but nice consolation with Chris Hubbard gone and Ramon Foster in a contract year.

They clearly aren't afraid to welcome some different cats in the locker room, and Wade holds the key to unlock Arden.

Maryland WR reunion! Stefon Diggs is a great talent who hasn't quite put it all together yet, and Moore's upside might be even higher.

They hated losing Nate Solder, but Crosby is an athletic plug-and-play blocker, if not competition for Tony Garcia.

Note the athletic profiles of Ronald Darby and Sidney Jones. Jackson's more slight but quickly strengthens one of Philly's few weaknesses.

[blueman]

Evans over Payne, knowing there are still linemen and LBers later, okay I’m down.

[chargerkdb]

I’d really rather not face Edmunds playing for the Turds for the next decade. That prospect alone worth moving up. Chicago, Tampa, SF might be ok but not anyone in our conference or division

[bonehead]

Would rather have Vander Esch or move up to grab Roquan

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

https://chargerswire.usatoday.com/2018/03/23/report-chargers-to-work-out-ex-vanderbilt-cb-tre-herndon/

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

Returner options...

http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/player/d.j.-chark/106118

http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/player/dante-pettis/110561

http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/player/rashaad-penny/109279

Who do you like for a returner in this draft?

[Bolt-O]

Rashaad Penny.

[Attack]

If the Giants draft a QB with the #2 overall, then it could mean that QB Davis Webb is available in a trade. It wouldn't make much sense to have two young QBs on their roster. If Telesco doesn't draft a QB, then I would call the Giants to see what they would want for Webb.

[Formula 21]

I expect the Giants to trade down. The qbs have too much value.

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

I can not find ten yard spiltz numbers for rbs same with the three cone drill for lbs and rbs am I lame? Do not answer that oip!

[Formula 21]

3. Leighton Vander Esch, Boise State4. Rashaan Evans, AlabamaHe has excellent athletic and physical traits, and that gives him as high a ceiling as any linebacker in this class. He could also go as high as the first round if teams fall in love with those physical abilities, but his game on the field needs significant development. His coverage needs work and how successful that work is will likely determine his ultimate value at the next level, but his play against the run and how efficient he can be on the blitz should allow him to make an early impact.

Pass rushers have great value in the draft. And we need LBs that can play the run.

[Steve]

Evans is a so-so blitzer, but a pretty good pass rusher. He is not a guy who times his rush and can be sneaky after the rest of the rusher commit.
Just line him up and let him fly upfield. Bama lined him up as an edge rusher a fair amount, and he was a good edge rusher for them. Can run stunts and clean up if singled up against a RB. He is a S sized player, so you can't line him up at DE as a 34 rush LB and expect him to hold up and shed blockers. Can be effective as a Rover/Joker rush LB who runs games with the DL and can force the QB to step up in the pocket.

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

I found a website that lists the ten yard split times...

http://nflcombineresults.com/nflcombinedata.php

[Formula 21]

2018 NFL Draft rankings: Speed, block-shedding and everything to know about LBs

Find out how Roquan Smith, Tremaine Edmunds and the rest of the top linebackers stack up

• 
• by Chris Trapasso
• @ChrisTrapasso

The linebacker spot is one of the best groups in the 2018 draft class, and that's not just because of Roquan Smith and Tremaine Edmunds.
There are three or four more high-quality off-ball linebacker prospects who'll likely be picked in one of the first two rounds and will become solid NFL players.
Below I've ranked each of the consensus top off-ball linebackers in the qualities I deem most necessary to be successful at those positions in the pros (listed in order of importance). I've also added one player who should be available a bit later in the draft who excels at each particular trait.


Sideline-to-sideline speed

1. Roquan Smith
2. Leighton Vander Esch
3. Malik Jefferson
4. Tremaine Edmunds
5. Darius Leonard
6. Rashaan Evans

Smith ran 4.51 at slightly over 6-foot and 236 pounds, and he plays that fast on the field. Many of his impact plays came when he ranged from his spot in the middle of Georgia's defense to the sideline on either an outside run or wide receiver screen. Vander Esch also flies to the football, although he doesn't look as fast because he's a tall, long-strider. Jefferson gets to the perimeter in a hurry, and the same can be said about Edmunds. Leonard doesn't lack in the athleticism department whatsoever, and is more than capable of making plays on the outside. Evans has plus physical gifts too.
Sleeper:Jerome Baker
At 6-foot-1 and 229 pounds, Baker has to be a speedy linebacker to win consistently, and he's exactly that. At Ohio State, he looks like what's become the norm at the collegiate and professional ranks: a large safety playing linebacker.
Coverage skills

1. Leonard
2. Smith
3. Vander Esch
4. Edmunds
5. Evans
6. Jefferson

Leonard is terrific smoothly following running backs out of the backfield and tight ends down the seam. He's a keenly aware, fluid athlete with plus long speed. Changing direction is not a problem for him, which also helps in coverage. Smith demonstrated tight coverage at Georgia often because of supreme athletic talents and route-recognition skills. Vander Esch is good in zone, where his length and speed are best utilized. Edmunds has insane coverage upside, yet his recognition skills are a tick slow when moving backward. Evans and Jefferson are the most effective making plays close to the line of scrimmage yet neither are heavy footed.


Sleeper: Skai Moore
Moore intercepted 14 passes -- at least three each year -- during his productive, four-year career at South Carolina and knocked down six other throws. He's a choppy mover but gets from point A to point B quickly. He's quick to drop into zone down the seam and react to what he's seeing from the quarterback in the pocket.
Tackling reliability

1. Smith
2. Vander Esch
3. Evans
4. Edmunds
5. Leonard
6. Jefferson

Smith is as sure of a tackler as they come, and his film is littered with big hits and, more importantly, textbook wrap-up takedowns. Vander Esch is a reliable tackler on plays near the line of scrimmage, where a large portion of his tackles are made. Evans and Edmunds will miss a tackle occasionally, but not frequently enough for it to be considered an issue. Leonard's tackling skills are good too, and he packs plenty of power when he gets to the ball-carrier. Jefferson flies all over the field, and his immense speed leads to a fair amount of whiffs when he gets in perfect position.
Sleeper: Chris Worley



Mostly a between-the-tackles playmaker who's kind of a throwback linebacker, Worley is super consistent when he gets his hands on an offensive player who's holding the football.
Block-shedding

1. Smith
2. Leonard
3. Evans
4. Edmunds
5. Vander Esch
6. Jefferson

To me, the ability to shed blocks separates the good linebackers from the superstars. Smith has a plan when blockers approach, often initiating contact to keep himself from being driven backward. Even when long-armed offensive linemen get into his frame, he is violent enough with his hand use to shed quickly to get in the running lane. Leonard too is aggressive on his shedding attempts, and it typically pays off. The rest of the players in this group struggle to disengage from blockers, the lone, clear-cut knock on their games.
Sleeper: Jason Cabinda
Like Smith and Evans, Cabinda isn't afraid of contact, and he's not shy about asserting his will on bigger offensive linemen in his assigned gap. At times, his jolt surprises blockers and leads to the Penn State linebacker having an easy route to the ball-carrier.


Pass-Rushing/Blitzing

1. Evans
2. Edmunds
3. Jefferson
4. Smith
5. Leonard
6. Vander Esch

Evans' pass-rushing skill comes mainly on the edge, where he was used by Nick Saban. His suddenness and hand use allow him to create a fair amount of pressure around the corner. Edmunds and Jefferson can overwhelm interior blockers by converting speed to power on A-gap blitzes. Edmunds could see some time on the edge too at 6-4 and nearly 260 pounds. Because Smith is smaller, his impact as a blitzer mostly comes from his agility and aggressive hands to work past offensive linemen. Leonard's high-cut frame doesn't help him as a blitzer. His springy athleticism does. Vander Esch isn't as powerful as you'd expect at 6-4 and 256 when sent on blitzes up the middle.
Sleeper: Micah Kiser
Kiser looks like an old-school linebacker... compact, strong, and effective between the tackles. He thrived as a run-stopper and was used frequently as an inside blitzer. His low center of gravity, deceptive athleticism, and upper body strength allow him to create disruption in the backfield.
Scheme Fits

Middle Linebacker

1. Smith
2. Vander Esch
3. Evans
4. Leonard
5. Edmunds
6. Jefferson

Smith is ready to be the quarterback of a defense and run with tight ends down the seam. Vander Esch's combination of range, coverage experience and size would translate to well to a spot in the middle. Evans is your classic Alabama linebacker with a bit more athleticism than we saw from the likes of Reggie Ragland, who was a second-round pick in 2016 and turned in a quality run-stopping season in 2017. Leonard has the skills to play in the middle but would probably be best utilized more on the outside, and the rawness that Edmunds and Jefferson display getting off blocks would create issues at middle linebacker.

Sleeper:Cabinda
From his non-stop motor, to his block-shedding ability, good speed and deceptive change-of-direction skills, Cabinda seems like a classic middle linebacker with just enough athleticism to stick in today's souped-up, pass-happy NFL. If he sheds a few pounds to get a tick faster, that'd probably help him, but he's a smart second-level defender who was productive in his three years as a starter with the Nittany Lions.
Weakside Linebacker

1. Edmunds
2. Smith
3. Vander Esch
4. Jefferson
5. Leonard
6. Evans

With Edmunds's linear speed and ridiculous length, he's the new-age physical prototype at the weakside spot, which is a position typically played by the most athletic linebacker on the defense, someone who can be a tackling machine if kept "clean" from mobile blockers. Despite their difference in size, both Smith and Vander Esch could be 125-plus tackle linebackers in a weakside role, and although he can play a bit high, making him a bigger target for offensive linemen, Leonard's athletic gifts would bode well as a run-and-chase linebacker. Evans would probably be best inside
Sleeper: Dorian O'Daniel

One of my favorite prospects in the entire class -- my No. 31 overall prospect -- O'Daniel is a fast, agile, reliable tackler who's proficient in zone coverage defender and a productive blitzer. The former Clemson standout is the exact type of player a team should want at weakside linebacker.
Strongside Linebacker

1. Evans
2. Edmunds
3. Vander Esch
4. Jefferson
5. Leonard
6. Smith

Given his flashes of impressive edge-rushing skills and overall physical nature, Evans is the best strongside linebacker prospect of this group -- a position typically shifted closer to the line of scrimmage in under fronts. He's athletic enough to handle some coverage responsibilities too. Edmunds's mammoth frame and explosiveness would make a fine candidate for a "SAM" role in the NFL. The same can be applied to the comparably sized Vander Esch. Jefferson isn't small by any stretch at over 6-foot-2 and 235-plus pounds. Leonard and Smith are middle or weakside 'backers.

Sleeper: Fred Warner
Warner has the size -- over 6-foot-3 and 236 pounds -- and toughness to be a team's primary strongside linebacker. While he was involved with many tackles near the line of scrimmage and has quality range, he's also capable of flipping his hips and getting downfield in coverage. The BYU alum is one of the draft's sleepers likely best at weakside or strongside in the NFL.

[Steve]

The most important skill a LB has is their ability to key and diagnose plays. Too many college LB are slow at doing that. Many college LB just wait for the play to develop and run after the ball. To be successful an NFL player needs to read their keys and know where the play is going so that they can be there when the ball carrier gets to where he is going.

[blueman]

Nice info, thanks for posting this.

[Formula 21]

2018 NFL Draft rankings: Hand use, one gap vs. two gap and everything to know about DTs

Find out how Da'Ron Payne, Vita Vea and the rest of the defensive tackles stack up

• 
• by Chris Trapasso
• @ChrisTrapasso

This is the draft to pick a defensive tackle. The class of interior defenders features a handful of blue-chippers at the top and a plethora of quality prospects who'll likely be available anywhere from the second to the fifth round.

Michigan's Maurice Hurst is the standout among the defensive tackles, and Vita Vea from Washington is one of the most dynamic athletes among 340-plus pound linemen. Taven Bryan from Florida emerged as a disprutive force in the SEC and probably has his best football ahead of him. The same can be said about Da'Ron Payne from Alabama, who'll only be 20 years old when he's drafted.

Below I've ranked each of the consensus top defensive linemen in the qualities I deem most necessary to be successful at those positions in the pros (listed in order of importance). I've also added one player who should be available a bit later in the draft who excels at each particular trait.

Other installments in this series: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, Tight Ends, Offensive Tackles, Interior Offensive Linemen, Edge-Rushers.


Pass-Rushing Moves/Hand Use

1. Maurice Hurst
2. Taven Bryan
3. Harrison Phillips
4. Vita Vea
5. Da'Ron Payne
6. B.J. Hill
7. Derrick Nnadi

Hurst's swim move and club through the line of scrimmage are both devastatingly effective wrecking offensive plays before they can materialize. Bryan uses his long arms to his advantage often, and Phillips isn't super-consistent with his hand work, yet when he deploys his arm over or straight-arms offensive linemen, it's over. Vea certainly knows how to use his heavy hands at times, and Payne flashed that ability too. Hill and Nnadi are better with their hands in the run game.

Sleeper: Will Geary

Geary is the blue-collar defensive tackle prospect with the greatest likelihood to outplay his draft position. Always a stout run defender due to his low center of gravity and active hands, Geary flourished as a pass-rusher in 2017 with a variety of pass-rushing moves that allowed him to out-leverage bigger, stronger, and more athletic blockers and get the angle advantage on them en route to the quarterback.


Burst/Quickness

1. Hurst
2. Bryan
3. Payne
4. Vea
5. Phillips
6. Hill
7. Nnadi

This is another area in which Hurst is clearly the best at his position in his class. The former Michigan star has a Geno Atkins-like first step and the lateral quickness to make plays moving down the line of scrimmage. Bryan is a supremely gifted athlete for his height and weight -- as evidenced by a combine performance that was close to as impressive as J.J. Watt's. Payne is an explosive mover. The final four prospects on this list don't win with their burst off the ball.

Sleeper: Poona Ford

Somehow, Ford wasn't invited to the combine. Being a hair under 6-foot at the East-West Shrine Game likely didn't help him in that regard. The long-time, high-caliber producer at Texas is incredibly quick in one-gapping situations, and his smaller size actually helps him slip between bigger interior offensive linemen. There's a spin move in his pass-rushing arsenal too.


Run Defense

1. Hurst
2. Phillips
3. Vea
4. Payne
5. Nnadi
6. Bryan
7. Hill

Because of his excellent blend of hand use and explosiveness, Hurst is a run-stopper extraordinaire. Phillips, Vea, and Payne clog running lanes and devour backs with strength, proper hand placement, and the refined ability to shed blocks at the point of attack. Bryan and Hill are no slouches against the run either. Hill is a pure nose tackle who's nearly immovable on the interior.

Sleeper: Deadrin Senat

Similar to Hill, Senat has an outstanding anchor and plays with constantly moving hands against the run. The former South Florida standout plays with a high motor and quickly finds the football then does what he needs to do to get there. He's strong enough to dispatch blockers on occasion but actually can make plays with sheer quickness as well.


Scheme Fits

One Gap

1. Hurst
2. Bryan
3. Payne
4. Hill
5. Vea
6. Phillips
7. Nnadi

Let Hurst get upfield, and he has the potential to be a double-digit sack interior lineman who'll also affect the opposition's run game. Bryan too would be best in a free, one-gap role but has the frame to play at an edge spot as well as inside if need be. Despite his nose-tackle frame, Hill would flourish if given the opportunity to get between the guard and tackle at three technique. Vea, Phillips, and Nnadi are better suited for two-gapping roles, where their strength and block-shedding skills would be accentuated best.

Sleeper: Tim Settle

At 6-foot-2 and 320-plus pounds, Settle is deceptively quick off the ball and hits offensive linemen with a crazy amount of momentum. He looks like a space-eating nose tackle. He's not that type of defensive tackle prospect at all. In a one-gapping role, even at the one-technique, the former Virginia TechHokie would be able to reach his maximum potential in the NFL.


Two Gap

1. Vea
2. Payne
3. Phillips
4. Nnadi
5. Hill
6. Bryan
7. Hurst

Vea does have a good amount of potential in a one-gap role, yet would the most impactul with read-then-react duties. The same concept applies to Payne and Phillips. Nnadi, too is a wonderful run defender when he can see what's in front of him first. Hill certainly can two-gap and anchor against double teams. So can Bryan. Putting Hurst in a two-gapping role would be wasting his strengths as a penetrator.

Sleeper: Foley Fatukasi

An old-school two-gapping run-defender, Fatukasi can be the pivot man on a defensive line with an emphasis on stopping the ground game between the A and B gaps. Despite being taller than mose nose tackles, Fatukasi is generally good keeping his pad level relatively low, and he boasts a strong upper body.

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

https://chargerswire.usatoday.com/2018/03/24/report-ex-vanderbilt-lb-oren-burks-on-chargers-radar/

[Formula 21]

I fully expect the Bolts to take two LBs in the draft. An every down guy early and a sub package guy late. Burks, with his height and quickness, would be an excellent choice for the sub package guy.

[blueman]

This is a great draft for it.

[Steve]

SO take the part time guy early and the guy who is going to play later? How does that make sense?