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Herbert vs Burrow, A Statistical Comparison After Week 5

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  • Herbert vs Burrow, A Statistical Comparison After Week 5

    I like statistics.
    I don't believe they are the end all, but humans suffer from perception bias, and statistics help counter that.
    (Look up Perception Bias, its something everybody should be aware of, it effects EVERYBODY.)

    For quarterbacks, I like ESPN's Total QBR, as it is one of the few metrics that take into account passing and running, discounts garbage time stats, and takes into account situations, I.E. 4 yard completion on 4th and 3 is great, 4 yard completion on 4th and 5 sucks.

    So, to compare Burrow and Herbert after 5 weeks, I look at QBR.

    Burrow has 5 games, with QBRs listed from best to worst
    82.6, 54.1, 53.2, 15.9, 5.7

    Herbert with 4 games, with QBR's listed from best to worst
    87.4, 76.7, 74.5, 58.0

    Season to date QBR
    Burrow 43.7 ranked 30th in NFL
    Herbert 74.0 ranked 15th in NFL

    The thing that most jumps out at me here is consistency.
    Herbert has one mediocre game, and 3 excellent games.
    Burrow has 2 horrible games, 2 mediocre games, and 1 excellent game.

    At draft time, the word on Herbert was he had flashes of absurd brilliance, but was massively inconsistent.
    Burrow was thought to be the NFL ready QB with a history of consistency.

    I was one of those people who was worried about Herbert's inconsistency in college, I worried he would not be able to be consistent enough against the much better defenses that are in the NFL.

    I was very wrong.

    P.S.
    Burrow is doing fine. Historically, rookies are inconsistent, have multiple horrible games, etc
    The comparison with Herbert is almost unfair, as Herbert is putting up historically insane numbers for a rookie.

  • #2
    P.P.S
    Josh Allen rookie season QBR 49.8 rank 24th in NFL
    Baker Mayfield rookie season QBR 51.2 rank 23rd in NFL
    Carson Wentz rookie season QBR 46.7 rank 26th in NFL
    Kyler Murray rookie season QBR 57.7 rank 15th in the NFL
    Lamar Jackson rookie season QBR 42.6 rank 31st in the NFL
    Russel Wilson rookie season QBR 74.8 rank 3rd in the NFL
    Andrew Luck rookie season QBR 64.3 rank 11th in the NFL

    Comment


    • #3
      Great insight! Agree, numbers aren't the be all but they can definitely tell a story, albeit, a multivariate story with a whole lot of white noise thrown into the mix. Please share updates!

      Comment


      • #4
        Thank God we didnt listen to some of the posters on this board that wanted to trade away our first round picks for the next 3 years to trade up 5 spots !!

        I always said that burrow would be an average QB due to his limited arm strength and that he was surrounded by an All Pro team at LSU.

        Critty are you ready to eat Crow on this one?

        Thank God the uninformed fans don't run this team !

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by PR#1 View Post
          Thank God we didnt listen to some of the posters on this board that wanted to trade away our first round picks for the next 3 years to trade up 5 spots !!

          I always said that burrow would be an average QB due to his limited arm strength and that he was surrounded by an All Pro team at LSU.

          Critty are you ready to eat Crow on this one?

          Thank God the uninformed fans don't run this team !
          Yeah, but what about the informed ones? Like me? Or am I uniformed and just lucky?

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by JustAnotherFan View Post
            P.P.S
            Josh Allen rookie season QBR 49.8 rank 24th in NFL
            Baker Mayfield rookie season QBR 51.2 rank 23rd in NFL
            Carson Wentz rookie season QBR 46.7 rank 26th in NFL
            Kyler Murray rookie season QBR 57.7 rank 15th in the NFL
            Lamar Jackson rookie season QBR 42.6 rank 31st in the NFL
            Russel Wilson rookie season QBR 74.8 rank 3rd in the NFL
            Andrew Luck rookie season QBR 64.3 rank 11th in the NFL
            Hope we has a Wilson or Luck type year.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by PR#1 View Post
              Thank God we didnt listen to some of the posters on this board that wanted to trade away our first round picks for the next 3 years to trade up 5 spots !!

              I always said that burrow would be an average QB due to his limited arm strength and that he was surrounded by an All Pro team at LSU.

              Critty are you ready to eat Crow on this one?

              Thank God the uninformed fans don't run this team !

              I know thank god fans like you don't or we would still have Rivers in decline falling off a cliff while you blamed the o-line. And there would be no Herbert.
              And every other year we would fired the HC, OC and DC and they would be like the old Browns team that never stuck to a long term plan.

              5 games in and its already been decided???
              Let it marinate for while. Then I will eat the crow. It will taste better marinated.

              And it is kind of unfair as Herbert has the much much better HC in Lynn. And the better team.
              Chargers had won 17 games over the previous 2 season and a playoff game. And a plus 91 point differential over those 2 seasons.
              Bengals had won 8 games the previous 2 seasons. And were minus 228 point differential over those 2 season.
              So that is a 319 point difference between the two franchises over the past 2 seasons before the rookie QBs were added this year.
              Lynn as Bengals HC would have made sure he protected Burrow better, just like he is doing for Herbert.
              Its not the QBs,they both are gifted. Its the preparation by the coaching staff or lack thereof, that is part of the equation.
              Herbert would have the worse QBR and Burrow the better if they switched teams.
              Hopefully Bengals don't get him too beat up.
              Burrow was sack 7 times vs Ravens last week and 22 times on the year.
              Herbert only been sacked 9 times in the 4 games even though line is missing 3 starters Pouncey, Turner and Bulaga. Credit to Lynn.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Critty View Post


                I know thank god fans like you don't or we would still have Rivers in decline falling off a cliff while you blamed the o-line. And there would be no Herbert.
                And every other year we would fired the HC, OC and DC and they would be like the old Browns team that never stuck to a long term plan.

                5 games in and its already been decided???
                Let it marinate for while. Then I will eat the crow. It will taste better marinated.

                And it is kind of unfair as Herbert has the much much better HC in Lynn. And the better team.
                Chargers had won 17 games over the previous 2 season and a playoff game. And a plus 91 point differential over those 2 seasons.
                Bengals had won 8 games the previous 2 seasons. And were minus 228 point differential over those 2 season.
                So that is a 319 point difference between the two franchises over the past 2 seasons before the rookie QBs were added this year.
                Lynn as Bengals HC would have made sure he protected Burrow better, just like he is doing for Herbert.
                Its not the QBs,they both are gifted. Its the preparation by the coaching staff or lack thereof, that is part of the equation.
                Herbert would have the worse QBR and Burrow the better if they switched teams.
                Hopefully Bengals don't get him too beat up.
                Burrow was sack 7 times vs Ravens last week and 22 times on the year.
                Herbert only been sacked 9 times in the 4 games even though line is missing 3 starters Pouncey, Turner and Bulaga. Credit to Lynn.
                Credit to Herbert! Rivers would have already been killed by this line or we would have 10 picks by now!

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Critty View Post


                  I know thank god fans like you don't or we would still have Rivers in decline falling off a cliff while you blamed the o-line. And there would be no Herbert.
                  And every other year we would fired the HC, OC and DC and they would be like the old Browns team that never stuck to a long term plan.

                  5 games in and its already been decided???
                  Let it marinate for while. Then I will eat the crow. It will taste better marinated.

                  And it is kind of unfair as Herbert has the much much better HC in Lynn. And the better team.
                  Chargers had won 17 games over the previous 2 season and a playoff game. And a plus 91 point differential over those 2 seasons.
                  Bengals had won 8 games the previous 2 seasons. And were minus 228 point differential over those 2 season.
                  So that is a 319 point difference between the two franchises over the past 2 seasons before the rookie QBs were added this year.
                  Lynn as Bengals HC would have made sure he protected Burrow better, just like he is doing for Herbert.
                  Its not the QBs,they both are gifted. Its the preparation by the coaching staff or lack thereof, that is part of the equation.
                  Herbert would have the worse QBR and Burrow the better if they switched teams.
                  Hopefully Bengals don't get him too beat up.
                  Burrow was sack 7 times vs Ravens last week and 22 times on the year.
                  Herbert only been sacked 9 times in the 4 games even though line is missing 3 starters Pouncey, Turner and Bulaga. Credit to Lynn.
                  Part of the problem re: sacks is Burrow. Herbert has been pressured on 6% more of his drop backs. The Bengals also have about the same OL win rate on pass blocking as the Chargers while having a much better win rate in the running game. Their OL has been superior overall to the Chargers. BTW, the OL is still terrible and should be priority number one heading into the off season.

                  But you are correct that it has only been 4 games. It's way too early for anyone on any side from eating crow on this!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by PR#1 View Post
                    Thank God we didnt listen to some of the posters on this board that wanted to trade away our first round picks for the next 3 years to trade up 5 spots !!

                    I always said that burrow would be an average QB due to his limited arm strength and that he was surrounded by an All Pro team at LSU.

                    Critty are you ready to eat Crow on this one?

                    Thank God the uninformed fans don't run this team !
                    X100
                    If I ran this team, my first order would be to fire myself.
                    with a nice severance package of course
                    Relentlessly Seeking Improvement
                    #10

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      If the Dolphins had passed on drafting a QB, who doesn't think the Chargers would have drafted Tua rather than Herbert? If the Chargers had the choice of drafting Burrow, Tua or Herbert, who doesn't think they would have drafted Burrow? Herbert was everybody's third choice of the top QBs in this draft, and the Chargers just got lucky they had to settle for third choice.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Velo View Post
                        If the Dolphins had passed on drafting a QB, who doesn't think the Chargers would have drafted Tua rather than Herbert? If the Chargers had the choice of drafting Burrow, Tua or Herbert, who doesn't think they would have drafted Burrow? Herbert was everybody's third choice of the top QBs in this draft, and the Chargers just got lucky they had to settle for third choice.
                        Herbert was Telesco’s highest rated QB the last two years so I think maybe only Joe would have been picked ahead (Depending on what pressure he was facing from Spanos), but not Tua.
                        Relentlessly Seeking Improvement
                        #10

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