Team Without A Power RB got to SB? - A RB Discussion

[wu-dai clan]

Te'o had a forty time that sucked.
That weird personal shit should been a red flag.
Of course we traded up.
TT has learned.

[dmac_bolt]

Te'o had a forty time that sucked.
That weird personal shit should been a red flag.
Of course we traded up.
TT has learned.

It seems TT has learned, thank god. Although remember that OSU middle LB that was slower than Te’o who flamed out and is long gone. What was his name?

Te’o had none of the measurable to be elite. The championship game against NFL-like talent completely exposed him. And the catfish … that was a HUUUUUUUUGE flag. Captain of the Team can’t date a girl on a football-crazy campus in the middle of bumfuck midwest cornfields and instead has a fantasy online GF he’s never met.

all the other high-projected draft picks - every single one not only has a hot live in-flesh girlfriend, they usually have super models (monster energy drink model - ahem) in training. On the arm. In the flesh. Next to them. Adoring them.

And all he’s got is a photograph and he realizes she’s not coming back anymore … (a lil ringo for your Sunday coffee sesh)

[Guest]

All of this is speculation on your part; you would be better off admitting to it instead of passing it off as absolute certainty..
That Arizona team had a lot of needs & inside linebacker is not the most highly valued of defensive positions. They ended up passing on inside linebacker with their 2nd round pick (even thought Jamie Collins was available). That pretty much renders your description of their intentions wrong. That you characterize all 4 players as 'equally' rated is once again you chasing your own tail. Who had them equally rated - consensus? Jamie Collins turned out to be the best of the group and i don't remember consensus projecting him in the 2nd.

Gordon was the last player Telesco had a 1rst round grade on. It seemed worth while to him to give up a 4rth to ensure that they got him. In hindsight, there were of course better options - but that is not what this argument is about. This argument is about whether Telesco could have gotten these players later, and quite frankly you, or anyone else, will never know..

Te'o Trade

The part you bolded is 100% known. Arizona was willing to trade with us because they did trade with us. Contrary to your assertion, Arizona did not pass on ILB in round 2. ILB was their #1 need in the second round, which they proved by selecting Kevin Minter with the pick we traded to them (#45). They could have selected Te'o at 2-38, but they did not want him in spite of ILB being their greatest need at that time.

Collins was selected as an OLB. We and Arizona both needed an ILB. But yes, he was the best of the second round LBs from the 2013 draft.

The ILBs were similarly rated by most pundits and, in fact, all 4 went within 12 picks of each other, which suggests that actual NFL teams had them similarly rated as well.

Again, the point is that Telesco not only should have known that he had Te'o rated higher than most published draft boards, but he also knew that ARI, an actual NFL team for those that hold their noses high when it comes to draft expertise, a team specifically in need of an ILB, did not want Te'o at #38.

And in the Te'o case, only part of the issue is that Te'o is likely there at #45 as it was only 7 picks away. But the other part was that all 4 of the ILBs similarly rated by most were still on the board at #38. And none of the other ILBs went until pick #45, which indicates that all of those teams picking in between 38 and 45 did not want any of them when they picked in the second round. There simply was no need to burn the 4th round pick under those circumstances and no real loss if a team selected Te'o between 38 and 45, which, again, was unlikely because none of those teams took an ILB.

Gordon Trade

Regarding Gordon, I assume you are not contesting the obvious part, which is that SF, who all but waved a flag with Armstead's name on it leading up to the draft and were willing to trade back at #15 rather than taking Gordon, and HOU, who had a Pro Bowl RB and had just signed another RB two days before the draft, did not want to go RB in round 1. I really do not want to have to lay that out again, but it was very, very obvious. That leaves a team trading up to get Gordon as the only real risk. Telesco should have known that much with reasonable certainty.

Regarding the phantom trade up by another team, there is no evidence of that. That is literally the opposite of proof that that was going to happen or was likely to happen. And trading up just to prevent the theoretical possibility of another team trading up is a beyond terrible draft strategy because that could, in theory, happen with every pick a team ever makes. There is no evidence of it and the odds were heavily against it as they are for a trade up at any specific point in any given round. Knowing nothing else, there are a few trade ups each round, so the odds are pretty low that a trade up will happen at any given point. You play the odds and do not flush the picks. That is basic draft strategy.

In General

This whole notion that things cannot be known with reasonable certainty that some of you are suggesting is absolutely refuted by Telesco's own discussion of round 1 of this year's draft where he indicated that after pick 8, he felt confident that Slater would be there at pick #13. Of course, Telesco cannot know that with absolute certainty until the draft cards are turned in, but he can know it with reasonable certainty. It is not as much of a mystery as some of you are making it out to be.

[Guest]

I going to be honest here Chain. You sound like Vizzini from the Princess Bride quoting your opinions based on opinions from other analysts as cold hard fact which is just not truth. You were never in the draft rooms to know what these teams were thinking or their valuation process on players. Nobody has all the facts. Nobody knows what any team is going to do with their draft pick so you cant state a fact like everyone knew this team was going to draft this player at this spot...you just cant...that is overconfidence. I see behavioral aspects like this in the financial industry...people think they have all the information but they really dont...overconfidence leads to bad decisions when they think they cant be wrong...and guessing right leads to the overconfidence. But its still a guess.

Good players have landed in bad locations with bad coaches and the odds are stacked against them in succeeding too. Success is influencable by the situation and people around you....would you agree? I believe TT drafting a player at whatever draft position is stage 1, then its up to the coaches to have a plan for how to coach them up thru training physically and mentally, then coaches have to develop the schemes to put those players into a position where they can succeed. Other players mentoring is also a huge factor for development in sports. Then its up to the player to incorporate all the training into gametime action. There are a lot of variables within each of those and any one can derail a players success. Players all learn differently. Drsfting a player is the easy part but its all the follow on activity that builds upon a players potential. We are really drafting for potential and there is no master formula that values a player the absolute right way....its subjective.

Did you know that we were not going to take a QB in the first round round of this year's draft? Of course you did because we have Herbert and did not need a round 1 QB.

Heading into the 2015 draft, HOU had a Pro Bowl RB in Arian Foster and had just signed Chris Polk, a reserve RB, 2 days before the draft, to go along with Alfred Blue, who chipped in over 500 yards in 2014 as Foster's main backup. Foster averaged 20 carries per game, so it was not as if the reserves were under a heavy workload. That says "not taking a RB in round 1 "just as the presence of Herbert said" not taking a QB in round 1 in this year's draft" for us. And, in fact, Houston did not take any RB in the draft until round 7.

The 49ers were willing to trade out of #15 (we know this because they traded with us), which shows that they did not want Gordon at #15 and they were strongly rumored to want Armstead.

With the draft at #15, the only way that we would not have had Gordon is with a phantom trade up. But there has never been any evidence that that actually existed and it is a bad strategy to anticipate a theoretical trade up by another team without any evidence of that because most teams make a pick and do not trade up when it is their pick, so the odds strongly favored there not being a trade up and the player falling to us. That is what makes it a bad draft strategy.

That is not overconfidence. That is simply thinking it through and having a good understanding of what is most likely to happen. Picks are precious so it is good not to waste them.

There was considerable knowledge available at the time regarding the Te'o trade as well, knowledge that counseled against trading up in that case too, but I have already explained that multiple times in this thread, so I will not explain it again here.

[powderblueboy]

Te'o Trade

The part you bolded is 100% known. Arizona was willing to trade with us because they did trade with us. Contrary to your assertion, Arizona did not pass on ILB in round 2. ILB was their #1 need in the second round, which they proved by selecting Kevin Minter with the pick we traded to them (#45). They could have selected Te'o at 2-38, but they did not want him in spite of ILB being their greatest need at that time.

Collins was selected as an OLB. We and Arizona both needed an ILB. But yes, he was the best of the second round LBs from the 2013 draft

A

You are right, they did get Minter (& at the time i thought Minter was going to be a bust).

And yet, Minter & Teo were not the same type of inside linebacker in college.
If i remember correctly, Minter was a thumper - someone primarily brought in by Arizona to defend the run;
and Teo was better against the pass....he dropped a lot of weight his final year at Notre Dame.

Minter's style of play fit Arizona's plans better than Teo and he was definitely going to be available later.
Arizona passing on Teo shouldn't have alarmed Telesco.

[powderblueboy]

eatest need at that time.



Regarding Gordon, I assume you are not contesting the obvious part, which is that SF, who all but waved a flag with Armstead's name on it leading up to the draft and were willing to trade back at #15 rather than taking Gordon, and HOU, who had a Pro Bowl RB and had just signed another RB two days before the draft, did not want to go RB in round 1. I really do not want to have to lay that out again, but it was very, very obvious. That leaves a team trading up to get Gordon as the only real risk. Telesco should have known that much with reasonable certainty.
.

Arian Foster was injured and soon to be out of football. Houston selecting Foster was a possibility.

[Guest]

Arian Foster was injured and soon to be out of football. Houston selecting Foster was a possibility.

I disagree. Foster missed three games with an injury in 2014, but nobody knew at the time of the draft that he was about to have a serious injury the following season. He was a Pro Bowl selection following his 2014 season--he had a very strong season (1246 yards, 8 TDs, 4.8 YPC, 2nd to Demarco Murray in yards per game). He was an elite RB option. The Texans beefed up their RB group right before the draft as well.

Everyone knew they were going to run Foster back out there in 2015. He did not sustain his 2015 groin injury until August of 2015. He did not rupture his Achilles tendon until October of 2015. These events were all months after the draft.

Houston confirmed their draft approach by not taking an RB until round 7 when they took one to push Blue/Polk.

I definitely think NFL teams should have known that the Texans were not going to take a RB in round 1 when their main guy was easily a top 5 RB, who averaged 20 carries per game.

[equivocation]

So when other teams pass on a player should you not draft them because they're no good or draft them because they're falling and therefore "value"? I'm so confused...

[powderblueboy]

I disagree. Foster missed three games with an injury in 2014, but nobody knew at the time of the draft that he was about to have a serious injury the following season. He was a Pro Bowl selection following his 2014 season--he had a very strong season (1246 yards, 8 TDs, 4.8 YPC, 2nd to Demarco Murray in yards per game). He was an elite RB option. The Texans beefed up their RB group right before the draft as well.

Everyone knew they were going to run Foster back out there in 2015. He did not sustain his 2015 groin injury until August of 2015. He did not rupture his Achilles tendon until October of 2015. These events were all months after the draft.

Houston confirmed their draft approach by not taking an RB until round 7 when they took one to push Blue/Polk.

I definitely think NFL teams should have known that the Texans were not going to take a RB in round 1 when their main guy was easily a top 5 RB, who averaged 20 carries per game.

Foster had major back surgery in 2013; he missed 3 games in 2014; he was set to miss the first 4 games of 2015.

I remember the uncertainty of Foster's health situation during draft discussions.
Telesco would have had more info than us - none of it would have been positive.

In 2013, Ryan Mathews was a big factor in getting the Chargers to the playoffs; in 2014, Mathews was injured and the Chargers barely missed out. Getting a workhorse running back at the time made sense. Telesco liked Gordon, had a 1rst round grade on him and felt a 4rth was worth making sure they got him. I get it. Why gamble on what Houston might or might not do? Its Kyle Emmanuel that you are giving up. Houston needed a running back....the guy they got in free agency was a marginal starter at best. Houston gambled and lost...something they became good out. When you are evaluating another teams potential draft picks, you expect some competence from that organization.

In hindsight, David Johnson was the better back and went much later; but grabbing Gordon also would have allowed the Chargers to grab Danielle Hunter in the 3rd, passing on David Johnson. You can play hindsight a lot of different ways.

[Guest]

Foster had major back surgery in 2013; he missed 3 games in 2014; he was set to miss the first 4 games of 2015.

I remember the uncertainty of Foster's health situation during draft discussions.
Telesco would have had more info than us - none of it would have been positive.

In 2013, Ryan Mathews was a big factor in getting the Chargers to the playoffs; in 2014, Mathews was injured and the Chargers barely missed out. Getting a workhorse running back at the time made sense. Telesco liked Gordon, had a 1rst round grade on him and felt a 4rth was worth making sure they got him. I get it. Why gamble on what Houston might or might not do? Its Kyle Emmanuel that you are giving up. Houston needed a running back....the guy they got in free agency was a marginal starter at best. Houston gambled and lost...something they became good out. When you are evaluating another teams potential draft picks, you expect some competence from that organization.

In hindsight, David Johnson was the better back and went much later; but grabbing Gordon also would have allowed the Chargers to grab Danielle Hunter in the 3rd, passing on David Johnson. You can play hindsight a lot of different ways.

Foster was a top 3 RB in the league and handled 20 carries per game in 2014. He played at a Pro Bowl level in 2014 after his back surgery. He did not sustain the injury that kept him out for 4 games until August of 2015, 3 months after the 2015 (Gordon) draft. There is no way that at the time of the 2015 draft that RB was going to be a first round consideration for the Texans. That would have been like us drafting a QB in round 1 of this year's draft. That never was going to happen.

That would have been even worse for HOU than the Raiders or Cowboys going RB in round 1 in this year's draft when they already have Josh Jacobs or Ezekiel Elliott on their roster. Anyone should have been able to tell ahead of time that that was not going to happen.

Telesco's move was stupid. There was virtually zero risk whatsoever that HOU was going to take Gordon. Any revisionist history that suggests otherwise is a bunch of goofy BS.

The only risk was a potential trade up by another team, which was statistically unlikely.

There is nothing of a hindsight nature about any of the above analysis. All of it was known at the time the 49ers were on the clock at #15.

Flushing picks for no reason is usually not a good draft strategy. And unlike the 2013 draft which was thinner in rounds 4+, there were still a bunch of good players on the board at rounds 4+ in the 2015 draft.

[wu-dai clan]

Today's question.
How did he get the nickname
Beast Mode ?

[Topcat]

It seems TT has learned, thank god. Although remember that OSU middle LB that was slower than Te’o who flamed out and is long gone. What was his name?

Te’o had none of the measurable to be elite. The championship game against NFL-like talent completely exposed him. And the catfish … that was a HUUUUUUUUGE flag. Captain of the Team can’t date a girl on a football-crazy campus in the middle of bumfuck midwest cornfields and instead has a fantasy online GF he’s never met.

all the other high-projected draft picks - every single one not only has a hot live in-flesh girlfriend, they usually have super models (monster energy drink model - ahem) in training. On the arm. In the flesh. Next to them. Adoring them.

And all he’s got is a photograph and he realizes she’s not coming back anymore … (a lil ringo for your Sunday coffee sesh)

Whiffhelm...