Team Without A Power RB got to SB? - A RB Discussion

[Guest]

We've already had this discussion, so I'll just post the same thing as before.

The average hit rate (solid starter) of all position groups in the 3rd round is 27.75%.

Source:
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/...draft-by-round

You obviously can't count Palmer or McKitty as misses because they haven't played yet.

Therefore, TT has hit on 2/7 (Justin Jones and Keenan Allen).

That's 28.5%.

PS - Since 2013, only 25 of the 302 3rd round selections have gone on to become Pro Bowlers (that includes ST guys).
Therefore landing a Pro Bowl caliber player in the 3rd is 8%.
TT is 1/7. That's 14%.

As I already pointed out, the issue is not so much Allen and Jones, but rather not getting much value at all from everyone else. Three complete busts that were not even solid reserve level players with Feeney on a one year deal as a reserve and Pipkins as a potential bust as well. That is multiple bad misses.

[equivocation]

True, but the point is not controversial.

You are obviously not the judge of what is controversial.

Speculative. Lacks personal knowledge. You have no idea how any, most, or all NFL teams construct their draft boards. Your available signal is online groupthink from pundits and where players are actually drafted. This board has less groupthink than the greater draft pundit community.

[Bolt Dude]

As I already pointed out, the issue is not so much Allen and Jones, but rather not getting much value at all from everyone else. Three complete busts that were not even solid reserve level players with Feeney on a one year deal as a reserve and Pipkins as a potential bust as well. That is multiple bad misses.

Jesus dude, you’re still not getting it. All GMs draft busts in the 3rd round. Show me one who doesn’t. It’s completely unavoidable.

The main goal is to add quality starters. The secondary goal is to add depth. I have no idea what the hit rate or criteria is for depth players. But I’d assume Pipkins and Feeney fit that category.

But drafting a quality starter is a hit. And in the 3rd round—the round you’re whining about—TT is above average at doing just that.

Please, for the sake of your own sanity, quit crying and adjust your expectations.

[powderblueboy]

No, that is not what I am saying. In fact, it is nowhere close to what I am saying.

I responded to a poster that stated that Palmer was selected with an eye toward his blocking ability--suggesting that that was at least substantially, if not predominantly why the player was selected.

I disagree with such a view--period. I think Palmer is fine as a blocking WR, but not mainly, nor close to mainly, why he was drafted by us.

Is that clear enough?

"they did not "have an eye toward" his blocking when they made the pick as you suggested" - Chaincrusher



Once again, where did you get this information? What presser from Telesco/Staley lead you to this conclusion?
Which past selections at wide receiver under Telesco demonstrate an organizational conviction that you can get by if your wide receivers can not block.
With which school of football is this opinion congruent?

Here are the organizations other offensive selections:
1. Offensive tackle
3. A good blocking wide receiver
4. A tight end in which his blocking skills were specifically mentioned
5. A tackle/guard
6. A running back who is adept at picking up blitzes:
He's really good in pass (protection) and blitz pickup. He attacks guys. Knocks 'em on their butt. Likes to play in close games

Do you see a pattern here?

[Panamamike]

Excellent question.
I would guess 20% is probably about average?
35% is the top 10% of GMs?

We are one and a half percent above average since TT has been GM however none of that is statistically relevant due to a small sample size.

[Panamamike]

As I already pointed out, the issue is not so much Allen and Jones, but rather not getting much value at all from everyone else. Three complete busts that were not even solid reserve level players with Feeney on a one year deal as a reserve and Pipkins as a potential bust as well. That is multiple bad misses.

You have absolutely no clue as to the percentage of players in the third round that pan out as to garnering a second contract with the Team drafted them or another team. 0...none..nada.

[Panamamike]

So do we all.

How so? Please, for the love of God extrapolate your thought more than with four words. I will add you to the open bet offer.

Please read the thread, the argument that ensued, and we will discuss whatever amount you would like to put up under the conditions that I laid forth above.

[Panamamike]

SMH...players taken in round 3 by Telesco after Keenan Allen include Chris Watt (taken #91 overall, out of NFL after 3 seasons), Craig Mager (taken #83 overall, out of NFL after 4 seasons), Max Tuerk (#66 overall, out of NFL after two seasons, played 1 game, died 3 years after last being in the NFL), Dan Feeney (taken #71 overall, 2017-present in the NFL, weak starter, not re-signed by us, got a one year low money deal with the Jets as a backup OG), Justin Jones (taken #84 overall, decent starter), Trey Pipkins (taken #91 overall, ineffective player so far), Josh Palmer and Tre McKitty (taken #77 and #97 overall, both players considered by most to be reaches, McKitty considered to be one of the worst value selections in the entire draft by multiple pundits).

Including Allen, I count 9 third round selections. 5 picks with clearly below average value. 2 picks are projected to be below average in value. 1 pick with average value. 1 pick with great value.

That is not a great hit rate for the round I am discussing.

that average is greater than the NFL drafting average(mind you it is still less than a mathematicallysignificant amount of selections). It still has not a goddamn thing to do with what we were talking about.
I offered you two bets... Put up or shut up.

[Panamamike]

As I already pointed out, the issue is not so much Allen and Jones, but rather not getting much value at all from everyone else. Three complete busts that were not even solid reserve level players with Feeney on a one year deal as a reserve and Pipkins as a potential bust as well. That is multiple bad misses.

Oh yes the issue isn't who worked out it's who didn't work out. GTFOH....

[Panamamike]

As I already pointed out, the issue is not so much Allen and Jones, but rather not getting much value at all from everyone else. Three complete busts that were not even solid reserve level players with Feeney on a one year deal as a reserve and Pipkins as a potential bust as well. That is multiple bad misses.

You're labeling pipkins as a bust when he came from out of division 3 year 1. Massive massive increase competition, in his development has been under difficult circumstances. This has affected many current NFL players and also the draft this season. He absolutely needed to get stronger. Year two there was no active offseason. Giving his background really came from that was a huge detriment to his growth. That can also be said about a lot of players that were going into year one and two last season. Do you ever put anything into context whatsoever? I agree he needs to prove this year but I'm not writing him off...YET.

Your math is garbage. The average carrer in the NFL is sbout than three and a half years. Telesco has drafted so called middle and late round busts n your mind, but they have carved out solid careers in the NFL.

I'll make another bet with you on his hit rate over seven rounds of players that have lasted more than 3 years in the league and prove you he is much higher than average as a drafter. Of course you won't take this bet because you don't have a f****** leg to stand on

[Guest]

You are obviously not the judge of what is controversial.

Speculative. Lacks personal knowledge. You have no idea how any, most, or all NFL teams construct their draft boards. Your available signal is online groupthink from pundits and where players are actually drafted. This board has less groupthink than the greater draft pundit community.

The statement that I said was not controversial is that a comparatively small number of players (relative to all draft prospects) are disqualified from a draft board (versus simply being lowered) because of a medical issue or because they are a bad system fit. And yes, that statement should really not be controversial to anyone. The players removed from a draft board each season are a small minority of the overall number of players. I do not need to personally witness it to know that it is true.

My foundation is not groupthink, but rather fundamental draft strategy. Knowing what other teams might be thinking has value. Using a little common sense does also. 10 teams already had selected a WR before we did, which lowers the chance of more being selected by those teams. There are many positions to fill through the draft and WR is but one of them. There were a good half a dozen or so WRs still available that had a higher consensus rating than Palmer. Exactly 5 WRs were taken in each of the first two rounds.

And, in fact, only 4 teams selected a WR after #77 and before we selected at #97. Exactly 5 WRs were taken in round 3 also. And in round 4 too.

While not quite an absolute lock, I think there was a very, very good chance that Palmer would have been on the board at #97 and a good chance that Palmer would have been on the board at #118. You do agree that if a player is available to be taken with a later pick, it would be better to take the player later, don't you?

And so what if Palmer had been taken at #112 instead of St. Brown if we had waited. WR was already our deepest position with 4 good WRs already on the roster. The downside to trying to score Palmer later in the draft was minimal.

Look, I am happy with Rumph in round 4 as I believe he is a better prospect than Palmer outright and, of course, the better value pick. And I also think we did well in the most important rounds (1-2). But I do not like to see us give away anything when we could have done better.

[equivocation]

The statement that I said was not controversial is that a comparatively small number of players (relative to all draft prospects) are disqualified from a draft board (versus simply being lowered) because of a medical issue or because they are a bad system fit. And yes, that statement should really not be controversial to anyone. The players removed from a draft board each season are a small minority of the overall number of players. I do not need to personally witness it to know that it is true.

My foundation is not groupthink, but rather fundamental draft strategy. Knowing what other teams might be thinking has value. Using a little common sense does also. 10 teams already had selected a WR before we did, which lowers the chance of more being selected by those teams. There are many positions to fill through the draft and WR is but one of them. There were a good half a dozen or so WRs still available that had a higher consensus rating than Palmer. Exactly 5 WRs were taken in each of the first two rounds.

And, in fact, only 4 teams selected a WR after #77 and before we selected at #97. Exactly 5 WRs were taken in round 3 also. And in round 4 too.

While not quite an absolute lock, I think there was a very, very good chance that Palmer would have been on the board at #97 and a good chance that Palmer would have been on the board at #118. You do agree that if a player is available to be taken with a later pick, it would be better to take the player later, don't you?

And so what if Palmer had been taken at #112 instead of St. Brown if we had waited. WR was already our deepest position with 4 good WRs already on the roster. The downside to trying to score Palmer later in the draft was minimal.

Look, I am happy with Rumph in round 4 as I believe he is a better prospect than Palmer outright and, of course, the better value pick. And I also think we did well in the most important rounds (1-2). But I do not like to see us give away anything when we could have done better.

Exactly how many NFL team draft boards have you seen in your life or participated in creating?