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  • Mr. Admin,

    Honestly I didn't mean to hijack this thread. LOL! I just wanted to point out that if our primary QB goes down Staley would get some latitude. I swear though if our defense looks this crappy next year I'm helping Staley pack his bags.



    Superbowl Bound! Yeah Baby!

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    • Originally posted by NoMoreChillies View Post
      I see it 4th and Staley

      Punting from 18 would put ball near LVR 30-40 yrd line. This also assumes the risk of blocked punt (we know it well and would half expect it here). The LVR would be 2-3 plays from FG range anyway. Knowing the Def couldnt stop LVR the better reward was successful 4th down vs hoping Def holds outside fg range. Add on our red zone Def was not atrocious then it was an educated gamble
      "2-3 plays from FG range"? Only if they call run plays against the Charger's defense. Pathetic D. But that call to go for it on 4th down on their own 18 cannot be justified no matter how Staley spins it.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Riverwalk View Post

        I agree with you. Even Staley doesn’t go for it on every 4th down. He draws a line based on risk/reward.

        Those of us criticizing the 4th and two on the 18 yard line feel the risk was too great if they failed to achieve a first down and we are in good company because virtually every successful coach in history would have punted the ball.

        It was reckless and backfired.
        Pro-analytics will argue that the probability favors the offense converting on 4th and less than 2. But probability doesn't cover what happens if you don't convert, and you are inside your own 20 yd line. In Russian Roulette, if you load one bullet loaded in a six chamber revolver, and you put the gun to your head and pull the trigger, the probability is it won't fire. But is that a risk you want to take? Going for it on 4th down and 1+ yard at your own 18 is also not a risk you want to take, even if the probability is you would convert. It's common sense. There really can't be an analytic on how often a team goes on to score after going for it on 4th and short inside their own 20, because nobody does it, except for the rare circumstance that it's the end of game, you are behind, and time is going to run out if you punt the ball away. But that circumstance did not apply in the case Sun night.

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        • Originally posted by Velo View Post

          Pro-analytics will argue that the probability favors the offense converting on 4th and less than 2. But probability doesn't cover what happens if you don't convert, and you are inside your own 20 yd line.
          I think it does.
          And for all the analytics and arguments, it is basically a toss up as to which is the better strategy. Within a few percentage points of one being better than the other.

          Do you realize each team only had 10 possessions in this game during regulation time? Each possession is extremely valuable. Each team scored 2.9 points per possession in this game. Converting a 4th down as opposed to punting is like creating a turnover. I don’t think anyone would argue that turnover margin is a huge difference in who wins a game, but a lot of people think it’s “risky” to go for it on 4th down. It’s actually more “risky” to lose or concede one of your possessions.

          Think of this scenario. You punt the ball, the other team has a great 45 yard return back to the line of scrimmage but they fumble the ball and there is a big pile up. You can’t tell, it seems 50/50 as to who may have recovered it. Do you like your chances there, or would you prefer that the other team fair caught the ball?

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          • Originally posted by NoMoreChillies View Post
            I see it 4th and Staley

            Punting from 18 would put ball near LVR 30-40 yrd line. This also assumes the risk of blocked punt (we know it well and would half expect it here). The LVR would be 2-3 plays from FG range anyway. Knowing the Def couldnt stop LVR the better reward was successful 4th down vs hoping Def holds outside fg range. Add on our red zone Def was not atrocious then it was an educated gamble
            Why punt at all then? 4rth and 12 from your own 10 yard line - go for it!!!

            Comment


            • Originally posted by PhilaBoltster View Post
              I think it does.
              And for all the analytics and arguments, it is basically a toss up as to which is the better strategy. Within a few percentage points of one being better than the other.

              Do you realize each team only had 10 possessions in this game during regulation time? Each possession is extremely valuable. Each team scored 2.9 points per possession in this game. Converting a 4th down as opposed to punting is like creating a turnover. I don’t think anyone would argue that turnover margin is a huge difference in who wins a game, but a lot of people think it’s “risky” to go for it on 4th down. It’s actually more “risky” to lose or concede one of your possessions.

              Think of this scenario. You punt the ball, the other team has a great 45 yard return back to the line of scrimmage but they fumble the ball and there is a big pile up. You can’t tell, it seems 50/50 as to who may have recovered it. Do you like your chances there, or would you prefer that the other team fair caught the ball?
              And a failure is also like a turnover...while a punt is not.
              No coach has ever said that we lost the game because we punted twice.....except perhaps Staley next year.

              Some are insisting in spinning dross into gold.

              Going for it in that situation has no reliable stats that you can remotely use.....the defense becomes super animated, sensing a game shifting moment.
              Defenses thrive off of energy.

              Stupid, stupid, stupid decision.

              The regrettable play selection was just icing on that retarded cake.

              Comment


              • Maybe Staley was just scared of our ST ...

                I mean, with our K, how many FG would you have kicked.

                Comment


                • Interesting that the Chargers' former Offensive Coordinator and Defensive coordinator are both in the playoffs with different teams. Just interesting, that's all.

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                  • Originally posted by like54ninjas View Post

                    People would rather just howl at the moon than research, delve into evidence, or only count the misses/ignore the hits (opposite of most instances). It is simple conformation bias. We all do it to a degree but the ones who do research/find evidence are typically more rational and more often than not correct in the debate.
                    ‘Screaming at the top of your lungs is therapeutic at times though.
                    Once again, i think you fall into the trap of believing that all these 4rth down decisions have some analytical basis.
                    As Jamrock and I have pointed out - they don't

                    There is no valid statistical basis that Staley could have reliably used for 4rth downs near the Chargers own redzone in that situation: zero, nada, null!
                    Its a hunch on his part, based on certain intrinsic factors associated with the game that can not be replicated in any statistical analysis that was performed
                    before the game. Against Cleveland, the defense was literally falling apart....i think everyone was fine with that attempt beforehand.

                    Against KC, near the half...it was a questionable decision.
                    Against the Raiders in the 3rd quarter, it was an awful (no you crazy idiot!) decision.....contributing to the need for a desperate comeback in the 4rth Q.
                    At the time, it had all the appearance of a desperate move, as some have inadvertently expressed in the idea that the D couldn't stop the Raider O.
                    The head coach/defensive coordinator who had little faith in his own D, one with James/Bosa on it......Christ almighty if that was the case!

                    I don't think the decision was as impromptu as that; but as John Madden had pointed out, a lot of bad coaching decisions are decided late in the night hours,
                    when no one is thinking well.

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                    • Originally posted by Velo View Post
                      Interesting that the Chargers' former Offensive Coordinator and Defensive coordinator are both in the playoffs with different teams. Just interesting, that's all.
                      And that Lynn is not? Yes, interesting.

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                      • Originally posted by powderblueboy View Post

                        And that Lynn is not? Yes, interesting.
                        Lynn didn't go from being a HC to a HC. Both Bradley and Steichen went from DC/OC to DC/OC with other teams. Just interesting, that is all.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Steve View Post
                          Maybe Staley was just scared of our ST ...

                          I mean, with our K, how many FG would you have kicked.
                          Hopkins was reliable enough, Viz was not.

                          I liked the decision at the time to go for it at KC, with the lead, on that windy day. It was an unusual decision: Norv and McLynn would have sent out Viz,
                          thinking that he would probably miss, but they would not get the blame.

                          It certainly has some influence on 4rth downs within field goal range. Staley did send out Hopkins to kick that field in OT.

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