Deflategate is Back!

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

Nobel Prize winner disagrees with science in Wells Report

Posted by Michael David Smith on May 14, 2015, 11:45 AM EDT

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The Ted Wells Report, which the NFL relied on in suspending Tom Brady and stripping draft picks from the Patriots for Deflategate, came to a scientific conclusion that “no set of credible environmental or physical factors” could have resulted in the Patriots’ footballs becoming underinflated. Now the Patriots have found a Nobel Prize-winning scientist to take issue with that.

On WellsReportContext.com, the Patriots have published a rebuttal from Roderick MacKinnon, who won the Nobel Prize in chemistry in 2003. MacKinnon writes that he disagrees with the Wells Report’s conclusion. In particular, MacKinnon criticizes the Wells Report for its failure to determine which of two gauges were used to measure the PSI levels of the Patriots’ footballs, which in MacKinnon’s view is a fatal flaw.

“I believe the data available on ball pressures can be explained on the basis of physical law, without manipulation,” MacKinnon writes. “The scientific analysis in the Wells Report was a good attempt to seek the truth, however, it was based on data that are simply insufficient. In experimental science to reach a meaningful conclusion we make measurements multiple times under well-defined physical conditions. This is how we deal with the error or ‘spread’ of measured values. In the pressure measurements physical conditions were not very well-defined and major uncertainties, such as which gauge was used in pre-game measurements, affect conclusions. Finally, the claim of a statistically significant difference in pressure drop between the two team balls regardless of which gauge was used did not account for the fact that the Colts balls were apparently measured at the end of halftime since the officials ran out of time and made only four measurements – in other words, the Colts balls were measured after the Patriots balls and had warmed up more. For the above reasons, the Wells Report conclusion that physical law cannot explain the pressures is incorrect.”

The Patriots say MacKinnon has “no business or personal relationship” with the team and merely offered his own analysis as an interested party who’s knowledgeable about the topic.

The reality is that virtually no one in the NFL (or for that matter the general public) is qualified to assess the scientific validity of the Wells Report’s findings. But it looks bad for the league that the Patriots have been able to find a Nobel Prize winner who says the Wells Report’s science is wrong.


So the wrong pressure tester is more meaningful than a guy calling himself the deflator... Nobel is losing prestege...

[TTK]

Mako nailed it.

It would have been a 25000 dollar fine andife would have moved on

Yeah, all this 'harsh' punishment is for the cover-up and not cooperating with the investigation.

Although, I take large issue with all these people saying that deflating wasn't a big deal. Mike Martz was on local radio this week and he nailed it. Rules are there for a reason to keep competitive balance and to protect the integrity of the game and no matter how small the infraction, you're cheating. Also, as it gets pointed out week after week, football is a game of inches and one play can change the outcome of a game. If a slightly deflated football prevents even just one fumble, or one dropped pass, or one bad pass, then it's a HUGE advantage for the Patriots. It blows my mind how some people in the media or ex-players are just completely ignoring this fact. One game, could have lost home field advantage for the Patriots and could have changed everything in the playoffs and we all know this crap has been going on for years, maybe even since 2004 as it's been speculated now. As far as I'm concerned, with Spygate, Deflategate and who knows what else they haven't been caught with yet, everything the Patriots have done in the Belichick era is tainted. I'm waiting for Communicationgate next because there have been accusations in the past of the Patriots messing with headset communication in their stadium.

[KNSD]

They can assign a probability that the pressure gage was in significant error simply by testing a large number of gages and then assign a mean and standard deviation to the results. Then the professor can then state there was a 96% (or whatever) chance that the measurements from a single gage are accurate.

As Al Pachino once said, "We die for that extra yard! We..." , err.. "The guilty live in that 4%, we fight for that miniscule level of uncertainty, we DIE to move the arguments to that ridiculously low level of error!"

I think "More probable than not" is clearly outside the "statistics" in this case. But I probably have a 3% chance of being wrong. Who knows?

[KNSD]

And yeah, stealing signals is much worse. It's really easy to defend when you know what the other side is running. Let's burn the tapes and lose all future leverage the NFL would have with the Patriots!

[KNSD]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/14/pats-jim-mcnally-called-himself-deflator-because-hes-fat/

h, here we go, this makes perfect sense.

Jim McNally didn’t call himself The Deflator because he took air out of footballs, more probably than not at the behest of Tom Brady.

He called himself that because he’s fat.

That’s another of the arguments forwarded by the Patriots in their really long (nearly 20,000 words) refutation of the Ted Wells Report.

The Patriots explain that John Jastremski is a “slender guy,” and usually tried to work out and bulk up. McNally is described as “a big fellow,” and was trying to lose weight.

The Patriots contend investigators had possession of the “espn/deflator” text initially, but didn’t ask McNally about it in their first interview.

“Had they done so, they would have learned from either gentleman one of the ways they used the deflation/deflator term,” they wrote. “‘Deflate’ was a term they used to refer to losing weight.”

They cite specific texts including one which read “deflate and give somebody that jacket.”

“There was nothing complicated or sinister about it,” they wrote, before going through a blow-by-blow of previous texts between McNally and Jastremski which references beer pong and women whose names were “omitted out of respect to Mrs. Jastremski.”

The Patriots suggest that the “jocular texts” undermine Wells’ suggestion that deflator was a reference to anything wrong.

And frankly, that’s as thin as Jastremski apparently is.

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

I wouldn't mind if Goodel burned Bradys ball...

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

Patriots: Tom Brady was calling John Jastremski to offer support

Posted by Darin Gantt on May 14, 2015, 11:32 AM EDT

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Tom Brady wasn’t trying to cover his tracks when he began calling equipment assistant John Jastremski in the days following the AFC Championship Game.

He was being supportive, and trying to prepare Jastremski for the increased attention he might have faced.

That’s the contention of one of the early passages of the Patriots’ rebuttal to the Ted Wells report, which they’re airing out today.

While the Wells report suggested that the six (at least) phone conversations between the two was indicative of something untoward, the Patriots say Brady’s motives were pure and “readily understandable.”

They began with the suggestion that in the “media frenzy” which ensued, “Mr. Brady is used to the limelight and to critics; Mr. Jastremski is not. Since Mr. Jastremski prepared the footballs, it was reasonable to expect that this media attention would focus on him. It was also reasonable to expect that (as happened) Mr. Jastremski’s boss would question Mr. Jastremski to see what, if anything, he knew. Mr. Brady’s reaching out to Mr. Jastremski to see how he was holding up in these circumstances is not only understandable, but commendable.”

The Patriots also said that part of the reason for the increased communication between Brady and an equipment assistant was in preparation for the Super Bowl, since it was Jastremski’s first in charge of preparing the balls, and the logistical issues inherent in playing at a neutral site in new conditions.

“All of these discussion topics were triggered by winning the AFC Championship and needed to be dealt with in the days following that win,” the Patriots insist. “In short, increased Brady-Jastremski communications in the days following the AFC Championship Game do not make it more likely than not that there was any wrongdoing or knowledge of wrongdoing. They are totally consistent with complete innocence. It is only speculation to conclude otherwise. Nonetheless, it forms part of the report’s stated rationale for its findings against Mr. Brady.”

There are a few problems here. Access to Patriots personnel is tightly controlled, so the notion that Jastremski might suddenly find himself dealing with questions is dubious at best. And while we’re sure Brady is a charming fellow, the idea that in a time of great stress and importance, that the hyper-focused Brady would reach out to a low-level team employee seems a bit unusual.

[Mister Hoarse]

Man, these idiots are just making it even worse.

[Coachmarkos]

Patriots: Tom Brady was calling John Jastremski to offer support

Posted by Darin Gantt on May 14, 2015, 11:32 AM EDT

Getty Images
Tom Brady wasn’t trying to cover his tracks when he began calling equipment assistant John Jastremski in the days following the AFC Championship Game.

He was being supportive, and trying to prepare Jastremski for the increased attention he might have faced.

That’s the contention of one of the early passages of the Patriots’ rebuttal to the Ted Wells report, which they’re airing out today.

While the Wells report suggested that the six (at least) phone conversations between the two was indicative of something untoward, the Patriots say Brady’s motives were pure and “readily understandable.”

They began with the suggestion that in the “media frenzy” which ensued, “Mr. Brady is used to the limelight and to critics; Mr. Jastremski is not. Since Mr. Jastremski prepared the footballs, it was reasonable to expect that this media attention would focus on him. It was also reasonable to expect that (as happened) Mr. Jastremski’s boss would question Mr. Jastremski to see what, if anything, he knew. Mr. Brady’s reaching out to Mr. Jastremski to see how he was holding up in these circumstances is not only understandable, but commendable.”

The Patriots also said that part of the reason for the increased communication between Brady and an equipment assistant was in preparation for the Super Bowl, since it was Jastremski’s first in charge of preparing the balls, and the logistical issues inherent in playing at a neutral site in new conditions.

“All of these discussion topics were triggered by winning the AFC Championship and needed to be dealt with in the days following that win,” the Patriots insist. “In short, increased Brady-Jastremski communications in the days following the AFC Championship Game do not make it more likely than not that there was any wrongdoing or knowledge of wrongdoing. They are totally consistent with complete innocence. It is only speculation to conclude otherwise. Nonetheless, it forms part of the report’s stated rationale for its findings against Mr. Brady.”

There are a few problems here. Access to Patriots personnel is tightly controlled, so the notion that Jastremski might suddenly find himself dealing with questions is dubious at best. And while we’re sure Brady is a charming fellow, the idea that in a time of great stress and importance, that the hyper-focused Brady would reach out to a low-level team employee seems a bit unusual.

:slowclap:

:smh:

[KNSD]

https://nfllabor.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/investigative-and-expert-reports-re-footballs-used-during-afc-championsh.pdf

""All eleven ofthe Patriots game balls tested measured below the minimum pressure level of 12.5 pounds per
square inch (“psi”) allowed by Rule 2 of the Official Playing Rules of the National Football
League (the “Playing Rules”) on both of two air pressure gauges used to test the balls. The four
Colts balls tested each measured within the 12.5 to 13.5 psi range permitted under the Playing
Rules on at least one of the gauges used for the tests. ""

The professor ought to have enough info to figure out the probabilities on this.
Here's the raw data:
Patriots Ball
Blakeman Prioleau
1 11.50 11.80
2 10.85 11.20
3 11.15 11.50
4 10.70 11.00
5 11.10 11.45
6 11.60 11.95
7 11.85 12.30
8 11.10 11.55
9 10.95 11.35
10 10.50 10.90
11 10.90 11.35
Colts Ball
Blakeman Prioleau
1 12.70 12.35
2 12.75 12.30
3 12.50 12.95
4 12.55 12.15


So let's do some math:
Patriot Balls:
Blakeman Mean: 11.1091, Standard Deviation: .4024, #STD from 12.5: 3.45
Prioleau Mean: 11.4864, Standard Deviation: .4099, #STD from 12.5: 2.47
Both Mean: 11.2977, Standard Deviation: .4409, # STD from 12.5: 2.72

Patriots are fucked. We're definitely in the "More probable than not" category here.

Colts:
Stat - Blakeman Prioleau Both
Mean - 12.6250 12.4375 12.5313
std - 0.1190 0.3521 0.2631
#STD from 12.5: -1.0502 0.1775 -0.1188

Colt balls were near minimum, but on average greater than 12.5
Patriot balls were 2.7 standard deviations from Colt average. In other words, the Patriots cheated.

Why the high standard deviation for the Patriots but not the Colts? It's harder to deflate the ball to a specific pressure than it is to pump it up to a specific pressure. (??)

[sandiego17]

I think I heard that the Pats are claiming that the guy calling himself "The deflator" did so because he was overweight and trying to lose weight. They really think everyone is that stupid, when really, its only their fans that are that stupid. This just confirms what any reasonable person would suspect, that the cheating flows from the top down, straight from Kraft down to the ball boy demanding signed shoes.

[Mister Hoarse]

I love it. Keep punching yourselves in the Patsnutz!