Chargers @ Ravens Game Day Thread / Post Game Discussion (Wk 6)

[FoutsFan]

At least one of those passes was on 4rth down, and you might ask yourself why Herbert chose to go to the green Josh Palmer, and not the experienced Guyton.
Well, last time they did Guyton was blanketed and then dropped the perfect pass from Herbert. Fortunately, they threw the flag on the db for being handsy.

Everyone disagrees with you about Guyton: Herbert, Lombardi, and the rest of the NFL to whom Guyton is a practice squad type player.

Guyton's drop were the reason Crusher had him over Tbilly.

[Velo]

Guyton's drop were the reason Crusher had him over Tbilly.

That's what impressed me the most about T-Billy, he never had a drop. He has a pretty slight build, but he competed for every catch and was not afraid to catch the ball in traffic. Remember the Herbert's Mail Harry in the Buffalo game? It was T-Bill who came out the pack with the ball, and he immediately tried to get into the end zone. He has guts and grit, good hands and speed. Still makes me shake my head a little.

[equivocation]

How many passes were targeted 40+ air yards last year? 12? I can't find data on it but it wasn't that many unless someone wants to go count and give a higher number. Less than 1/game. About 2/3 per game. People are remembering the TB and NO games as if they were the whole year.

This year we have 5 targeted 40+ yards downfield. (3 to Williams, 1 to Guyton (dropped in EZ), 1 to Allen over Diggs). Maybe more. Didn't Allen also get a long target on an off platform play vs KC? Williams is 3rd in the league (through 6 weeks) in air yards and leads the league in vertical routes run.

YPA and ADOT are the same. EPA/play is up. On a harder schedule.

This isn't the 90's or 00's anymore. We have advanced data and film readily available. "It feels like it" isn't an argument anymore.

[FoutsFan]

That's what impressed me the most about T-Billy, he never had a drop. He has a pretty slight build, but he competed for every catch and was not afraid to catch the ball in traffic. Remember the Herbert's Mail Harry in the Buffalo game? It was T-Bill who came out the pack with the ball, and he immediately tried to get into the end zone. He has guts and grit, good hands and speed. Still makes me shake my head a little.

Agree whole heartily.

[blueman]

How many passes were targeted 40+ air yards last year? 12? I can't find data on it but it wasn't that many unless someone wants to go count and give a higher number. Less than 1/game. About 2/3 per game. People are remembering the TB and NO games as if they were the whole year.

This year we have 5 targeted 40+ yards downfield. (3 to Williams, 1 to Guyton (dropped in EZ), 1 to Allen over Diggs). Maybe more. Didn't Allen also get a long target on an off platform play vs KC? Williams is 3rd in the league (through 6 weeks) in air yards and leads the league in vertical routes run.

YPA and ADOT are the same. EPA/play is up. On a harder schedule.

This isn't the 90's or 00's anymore. We have advanced data and film readily available. "It feels like it" isn't an argument anymore.

Buzz-harsher.

[Guest]

At least one of those passes was on 4rth down, and you might ask yourself why Herbert chose to go to the green Josh Palmer, and not the experienced Guyton.
Well, last time they did Guyton was blanketed and then dropped the perfect pass from Herbert. Fortunately, they threw the flag on the db for being handsy.

Everyone disagrees with you about Guyton: Herbert, Lombardi, and the rest of the NFL to whom Guyton is a practice squad type player.

The team does not disagree with me at all about Guyton as far as where he ranks in the pecking order. They are playing him as the #3 WR, which is exactly what I have said he is. I said he was better than Palmer and so far Guyton's production has proven me right. I do not agree with how Lombardi is using Guyton, but at least he can see the obvious--that Guyton is leaps and bounds ahead of Palmer.

Herbert has no chemistry with Palmer and Palmer simply flat out lacks bankable traits that would enable him to excel in the NFL. Some have alluded to his route running as a bankable trait, but that makes no sense to me. A raw player can develop that skill. What is a more polished route runner that struggles to gain separation (see Palmer, Josh) going to do? How is he going to get faster, quicker, jump higher or acquire any natural trait that will allow him to succeed? The answer is that that is not likely to happen.

At this point, Palmer kind of sucks. I did not think much of him when we drafted him and I think less of him now. Unfortunately, so far, it looks like I was right on the money about him. Not even a hint of a flash in his play so far.

[powderblueboy]

The team does not disagree with me at all about Guyton as far as where he ranks in the pecking order. They are playing him as the #3 WR, which is exactly what I have said he is. I said he was better than Palmer and so far Guyton's production has proven me right. I do not agree with how Lombardi is using Guyton, but at least he can see the obvious--that Guyton is leaps and bounds ahead of Palmer.

Herbert has no chemistry with Palmer and Palmer simply flat out lacks bankable traits that would enable him to excel in the NFL. Some have alluded to his route running as a bankable trait, but that makes no sense to me. A raw player can develop that skill. What is a more polished route runner that struggles to gain separation (see Palmer, Josh) going to do? How is he going to get faster, quicker, jump higher or acquire any natural trait that will allow him to succeed? The answer is that that is not likely to happen.

At this point, Palmer kind of sucks. I did not think much of him when we drafted him and I think less of him now. Unfortunately, so far, it looks like I was right on the money about him. Not even a hint of a flash in his play so far.

Every criticism you level at Palmer, fits very comfortably around Guyton's shoulders.
His chemistry with Herbert amounts to slightly more than 1 reception per game,
and you constantly complaining about how he is being used (in that he's not being used).
And as for getting open, i don't see Guyton getting much separation: do you?
Are you going to tell us he is torching secondaries and Herbert kind of sucks because he doesn't see Guyton running free all the time?

What i see in Guyton is a guy who is kind of a stiff route runner, not very flexible, and has poor hands.
If a receiver can't go up and make contested catches, he's useless.

[Velo]

Every criticism you level at Palmer, fits very comfortably around Guyton's shoulders.
His chemistry with Herbert amounts to slightly more than 1 reception per game,
and you constantly complaining about how he is being used (in that he's not being used).
And as for getting open, i don't see Guyton getting much separation: do you?
Are you going to tell us he is torching secondaries and Herbert kind of sucks because he doesn't see Guyton running free all the time?

What i see in Guyton is a guy who is kind of a stiff route runner, not very flexible, and has poor hands.
If a receiver can't go up and make contested catches, he's useless.

It does seem that Shane Steichen knew how to use Guyton's best asset - his speed - to get behind defenses. Steichen didn't know how to use Mike Williams, but Lombardi does, and he is using Williams as a deep receiver and Guyton is getting fewer of those routes. I don't know for sure, but that is my perception. I think Palmer is going to be more of a project than fans were initially expecting/hoping for, based on what we saw of him camp. It took Vincent Jackson several years to develop into an elite WR. Palmer is of that height/size/speed that does well in the NFL, his measurables are similar to Deandre Hopkins and Davante Adams. It took Adams some time to develop, I'm willing to give Palmer tome to develop also. But if either KA or MW get injured and have to miss time, Palmer is going to have to step up.

[Guest]

How many passes were targeted 40+ air yards last year? 12? I can't find data on it but it wasn't that many unless someone wants to go count and give a higher number. Less than 1/game. About 2/3 per game. People are remembering the TB and NO games as if they were the whole year.

This year we have 5 targeted 40+ yards downfield. (3 to Williams, 1 to Guyton (dropped in EZ), 1 to Allen over Diggs). Maybe more. Didn't Allen also get a long target on an off platform play vs KC? Williams is 3rd in the league (through 6 weeks) in air yards and leads the league in vertical routes run.

YPA and ADOT are the same. EPA/play is up. On a harder schedule.

This isn't the 90's or 00's anymore. We have advanced data and film readily available. "It feels like it" isn't an argument anymore.

Your test for the deep passing game is arbitrary (40+ air yards). The fact is that I cited a stat that showed that despite being second in attempts at the time, we were tied for 22nd or 23rd in pass plays over 25 yards. That screams out that we are not stretching the field at all. That alone sinks your assertion that our deep passing game is not being underutilized when compared to other teams

However, as to your 40+ air yard question from last year, in reviewing Herbert's highlights from last year, it appears that we completed (not attempted, but completed) 10 passes over 40 air yards. There was another completion to Mike Williams that was close, but just under 40 air yards in the game at Denver. Again, those are actual completions, not attempts.

So, you can accept that deep targets were much higher than you thought or you can accept that we succeeded on those passes about 83% of the time if we only attempted 12 such passes. Either way, we should be attempting more deep passes.

Again, not only would I not have dismantled the deep passing game as we have this season, I would have accelerated it. I would have kept T-Billy and if taking a WR in the draft at round 3, I would have selected another burner such as Schwartz versus another bigger/slower/not quick WR like Palmer. As it turns out, our QB throws deep passes very well.

Whether it is 1 or 2 deep targets for Guyton this season, that pretty much proves my point that he is being misused. If the deep targets are only 5 or anywhere near that in 6 games, that is a terrible number. We should be taking at least 2 or 3 deep shots per game.

Also, your YPA analysis is off. We are throwing less to RBs this year, so those short passes that would tend to lower YPA are not happening at the same rate as they did last year. Some of those targets have been replaced by medium, but not deep targets to Mike Williams, which would raise YPA considerably, yet Herbert's YPA is actually slightly lower this year because the deep passes have been lacking. This also accounts for Williams' yards per reception being slightly lower than last year despite two long TDs this year and Guyton's yards per reception being nearly 5 yards per reception lower than last year. And there is no WR with T-Billy's 19.9 yards per reception because we simply are not throwing very many deep passes at all, just as the stat I cited demonstrates.

Again, T-Billy averaged 19.9 yards per reception last year on 20 receptions and Guyton averaged 18.4 yards per reception last year on 28 receptions. This year, Williams is leading the team with a 15.1 yards per reception average. The big plays just are not happening this year like they were last year.

[Guest]

Every criticism you level at Palmer, fits very comfortably around Guyton's shoulders.
His chemistry with Herbert amounts to slightly more than 1 reception per game,
and you constantly complaining about how he is being used (in that he's not being used).
And as for getting open, i don't see Guyton getting much separation: do you?
Are you going to tell us he is torching secondaries and Herbert kind of sucks because he doesn't see Guyton running free all the time?

What i see in Guyton is a guy who is kind of a stiff route runner, not very flexible, and has poor hands.
If a receiver can't go up and make contested catches, he's useless.

That is BS.

Guyton has multiple bankable traits (speed and superior contact balance).

My issue is that they are not running enough deep plays for Guyton so he can take advantage of his speed like they did last year. His yards per reception are down by almost 5 yards per reception. And there is no other fast WR taking away deep targets from Guyton like T-Billy did last year. It is only Guyton and the deep passing game has basically disappeared except for two blown coverages against CLE which resulted in long TD passes to Mike Williams.

Guyton has demonstrated tons of separation since the beginning of last year. He has produced numerous wide open routes on deep balls. We simply are not designing deep pass patterns for him this year despite that being the best aspect of Guyton's game. That is precisely how he is being misused.

On numerous plays, both this year and last year, Guyton remains standing after about 4+ defenders have tried to tackle him without success. It is very noticeable.

The stats do not lie. This year, Williams leads the pack at only 15.1 yards per reception. Guyton is second at only 13.4. Last year, Johnson was at 19.9, Guyton was at 18.4 and Williams was at 15.8. Longer passing plays are simply not being called. We are not taking shots.

After we finished our 6th game, we were second in passes attempted and 22nd/23rd (I do not recall exactly) in passing plays over 25 yards. The deep passes, which we did as well or better than everyone last year, are way down in number.

As for Palmer, he has shown nothing, which is why Guyton has outclassed him (more than double the receiving yards) despite being very misused.

[Guest]

Guyton's drop were the reason Crusher had him over Tbilly.

No, I favored Guyton because I thought he had superior technique on deep passes with his slight push off move that worked every time and was never called a foul and he demonstrated superior contact balance after the catch. As I have stated repeatedly, I thought the two were close, but Guyton had the slight edge.

FWIW, both the former and current coaching regimes have agreed with my take in terms of pecking order between the two.

And both are clearly better than Palmer.

[equivocation]

Your test for the deep passing game is arbitrary (40+ air yards). The fact is that I cited a stat that showed that despite being second in attempts at the time, we were tied for 22nd or 23rd in pass plays over 25 yards. That screams out that we are not stretching the field at all. That alone sinks your assertion that our deep passing game is not being underutilized when compared to other teams

However, as to your 40+ air yard question from last year, in reviewing Herbert's highlights from last year, it appears that we completed (not attempted, but completed) 10 passes over 40 air yards. There was another completion to Mike Williams that was close, but just under 40 air yards in the game at Denver. Again, those are actual completions, not attempts.

So, you can accept that deep targets were much higher than you thought or you can accept that we succeeded on those passes about 83% of the time if we only attempted 12 such passes. Either way, we should be attempting more deep passes.

Again, not only would I not have dismantled the deep passing game as we have this season, I would have accelerated it. I would have kept T-Billy and if taking a WR in the draft at round 3, I would have selected another burner such as Schwartz versus another bigger/slower/not quick WR like Palmer. As it turns out, our QB throws deep passes very well.

Whether it is 1 or 2 deep targets for Guyton this season, that pretty much proves my point that he is being misused. If the deep targets are only 5 or anywhere near that in 6 games, that is a terrible number. We should be taking at least 2 or 3 deep shots per game.

Also, your YPA analysis is off. We are throwing less to RBs this year, so those short passes that would tend to lower YPA are not happening at the same rate as they did last year. Some of those targets have been replaced by medium, but not deep targets to Mike Williams, which would raise YPA considerably, yet Herbert's YPA is actually slightly lower this year because the deep passes have been lacking. This also accounts for Williams' yards per reception being slightly lower than last year despite two long TDs this year and Guyton's yards per reception being nearly 5 yards per reception lower than last year. And there is no WR with T-Billy's 19.9 yards per reception because we simply are not throwing very many deep passes at all, just as the stat I cited demonstrates.

Again, T-Billy averaged 19.9 yards per reception last year on 20 receptions and Guyton averaged 18.4 yards per reception last year on 28 receptions. This year, Williams is leading the team with a 15.1 yards per reception average. The big plays just are not happening this year like they were last year.

Blah blah fucking blah. There's a lot of irrelevancy in there.

How do attempts over 25 yards per game and per snap compare to last year? I can't find that stat but apparently you can so post it up. 2021 vs 2020. Let's see it.

I'm not saying that we're attacking downfield. I'm saying your memory of it from last year compared to this year is flawed. We've also dropped from 2.4 seconds in the pocket per attempt to 1.9 seconds. Something people wanted. Less pocket time means less downfield throws. RG and RT are backups. Should we hold the ball longer?