Chargers @ Ravens Game Day Thread / Post Game Discussion (Wk 6)

[Boltjolt]

The team does not disagree with me at all about Guyton as far as where he ranks in the pecking order. They are playing him as the #3 WR, which is exactly what I have said he is. I said he was better than Palmer and so far Guyton's production has proven me right. I do not agree with how Lombardi is using Guyton, but at least he can see the obvious--that Guyton is leaps and bounds ahead of Palmer.

Herbert has no chemistry with Palmer and Palmer simply flat out lacks bankable traits that would enable him to excel in the NFL. Some have alluded to his route running as a bankable trait, but that makes no sense to me. A raw player can develop that skill. What is a more polished route runner that struggles to gain separation (see Palmer, Josh) going to do? How is he going to get faster, quicker, jump higher or acquire any natural trait that will allow him to succeed? The answer is that that is not likely to happen.

At this point, Palmer kind of sucks. I did not think much of him when we drafted him and I think less of him now. Unfortunately, so far, it looks like I was right on the money about him. Not even a hint of a flash in his play so far.

Lol,... Is Gets funnier with every post.

Herbert has no chemistry with him yet Palmer is the guy he went to on 4th down. And 6 games in you profess you are right and he is no good, will not ever pan out?

Sorry bro, sometimes you are just pulling things out of your behind.

I am not real high on Palmer but who with any credibility professes a rookie a bust after 6 games? Like others that have turned out good I'm giving the kid time. Probably still drafting another WR though next draft for other possible reasons.

Here is a fact: you don't have any fucking idea what the coaching staff thinks about Guyton or Palmer. Just because Guyton gets more snaps means nothing of what you keep spewing.

How is Lawrence doing this year? Is he on pace for Lucks,..... ..er, I mean Herbert's rookie record season? And he gets an extra game. 2 actually. Herbert did it in 15.

You used Burrows YPA last year as a guage to say he isn't throwing very well. Lawrence YPA is 6.8. under 60% as well. BTW,. ..... Burrow looks like a probowler this year.
Yes I'm gonna keep mentioning this because you were adamently crowning Lawrence the best QB to come out of college ever and was the best QB even in Herbert's class and it wasn't close, according to you.

Perhaps,....just perhaps you don't know what you are talking about a lot of the time. Just a stat guy.

[Guest]

Blah blah fucking blah. There's a lot of irrelevancy in there.

How do attempts over 25 yards per game and per snap compare to last year? I can't find that stat but apparently you can so post it up. 2021 vs 2020. Let's see it.

I'm not saying that we're attacking downfield. I'm saying your memory of it from last year compared to this year is flawed. We've also dropped from 2.4 seconds in the pocket per attempt to 1.9 seconds. Something people wanted. Less pocket time means less downfield throws. RG and RT are backups. Should we hold the ball longer?

Yeah, what else are you going to say after I blew your ridiculous assertion out of the water?

Oh, so your new position is that somehow attempts of 25+ yards are the same, but we suddenly cannot complete any of them. Man, you are just digging the hole deeper for yourself.

I previously cited the stat on passing plays of over 25 yards, not attempts. This was before our bye when we had the second most attempts and were in the low/mid 20s in number of bigger plays.

Our completion percentage is within about 1.2% of what it was last year, so a bunch of phantom incomplete long passes is just false. The reality is that the longer plays are down because we are not attempting them in general.

Here is what I have on that:

http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders...ssing&rank=118

Right now, we are ranked 25th, but we have now played one less game than most teams. When I originally cited the stat, we were, as noted above, in the low/mid 20s in rank.

Further, of course we should be holding the ball longer a few more times per game to take some shots. Norton has and Schofield have both played for us before. They are decent players. Our OL is much better than it was last year overall. The OL is not an excuse for not taking shots down the field. We can max protect if we need to at times. We are idiots if we do not use Guyton properly and do not take advantage of Herbert's great deep passing talent. One or two long receptions per game can make the difference between winning and losing.

Honestly, it is funny that the supposed calling card of this offensive scheme was that we were going to make opponents defend every blade of grass and yet we do not throw deep and we have reduced short passes to RBs, which makes everything a short or medium pass to Allen, Williams or Cook, which is just about the opposite of what the design was supposed to be.

[equivocation]

My position is that you meed to supply either completions or attempts of 25+ yards normalized over games or snaps compared to 2020. To support (not prove) your assertion that our downfield routes are down this year. This does not an cannot provide data on average depth of route run (I can't find this anywhere) but it would at least be something other than your anal secretions.

I posted data from sharpfootballstats.com that completions of 15+ yards are up 10% over last year both per game and per attempt in another thread.

[Guest]

Lol,... Is Gets funnier with every post.

Herbert has no chemistry with him yet Palmer is the guy he went to on 4th down. And 6 games in you profess you are right and he is no good, will not ever pan out?

Sorry bro, sometimes you are just pulling things out of your behind.

I am not real high on Palmer but who with any credibility professes a rookie a bust after 6 games? Like others that have turned out good I'm giving the kid time. Probably still drafting another WR though next draft for other possible reasons.

Here is a fact: you don't have any fucking idea what the coaching staff thinks about Guyton or Palmer. Just because Guyton gets more snaps means nothing of what you keep spewing.

How is Lawrence doing this year? Is he on pace for Lucks,..... ..er, I mean Herbert's rookie record season? And he gets an extra game. 2 actually. Herbert did it in 15.

You used Burrows YPA last year as a guage to say he isn't throwing very well. Lawrence YPA is 6.8. under 60% as well. BTW,. ..... Burrow looks like a probowler this year.
Yes I'm gonna keep mentioning this because you were adamently crowning Lawrence the best QB to come out of college ever and was the best QB even in Herbert's class and it wasn't close, according to you.

Perhaps,....just perhaps you don't know what you are talking about a lot of the time. Just a stat guy.

You know, what I have said is that so far it looks like I was right about Palmer. The reality is that he has not been good. He has done nothing over the first 6 games. He has not even flashed any potential. He has no bankable physical traits and yes, that matters.

And yes, we probably would be better served by Jason Moore than Palmer at this point, but the reality is that we probably would not be able to waive any third round pick (even Trey Pipkins) to the practice squad. Moore has a couple of bankable traits and probably is a better fit for the plays we are running now than Palmer is.

As for Guyton, he is better than Palmer. Again, just about any NFL WR is going to be better than Palmer at this point because most NFL WRs at least have some bankable traits. That is not to say that Palmer cannot improve, but there is no indication at all that his ceiling is any higher than that of a reserve. He is less than Guyton until he proves that he is better than Guyton, who actually has demonstrated some ability on an NFL field.

As for Lawrence, I stated that he had the most potential of any QB entering the NFL that I can recall ever. That is how he found himself on the worst team in the league. He is very likely to have a better season than Andrew Luck did in his rookie season even after a slow start in terms of passer efficiency. His last three games have featured QB ratings of over 90, which is not great, but already demonstrates a positive adjustment. I think he will continue to improve.

Even after Lawrence threw 7 INTs in his first 3 games, Burrow is still throwing INTs at a greater rate than Lawrence is. Lawrence has better tools and has a higher ceiling than Burrow, but Burrow has far better weapons than Lawrence has at this point and one more year of experience. Among non-rookies, Burrow has the worst interception percentage in the league--not a Pro Bowler.

I actually liked both Herbert and Lawrence entering the NFL. I thought that Lawrence had the higher ceiling, but I undervalued Herbert even though I had him as the best QB in his draft class. I think Herbert clearly has had better weapons than Lawrence has had and that Lawrence and Herbert are both very talented. Right now, I would say Herbert has proven to be the better passer of the ball, which is most important, but Lawrence is a better running QB. I think Herbert has played closer to his ceiling than Lawrence has so far. But Lawrence's bankable traits are there in spades.

[Guest]

My position is that you meed to supply either completions or attempts of 25+ yards normalized over games or snaps compared to 2020. To support (not prove) your assertion that our downfield routes are down this year. This does not an cannot provide data on average depth of route run (I can't find this anywhere) but it would at least be something other than your anal secretions.

I posted data from sharpfootballstats.com that completions of 15+ yards are up 10% over last year both per game and per attempt in another thread.

Your sharpfootballstats reference is in line with what I have been saying all along--less passes to RBs and less deep passes, but more short/medium passes to Williams, Allen and Cook.

I have given you both passing attempts (2nd when originally cited) and passing plays over 25 yards (22nd/23rd when originally cited, 25th now due to us having a bye). That alone shows that we are not throwing deep very often compared to other teams unless you believe in the nonsense that we are really attempting a bunch of invisible long passes that nobody can see on Sundays and are not completing them.

I have also noted that our top three receivers in yards per reception last year all had per catch averages substantially higher than our yards per catch leader this season. That is because Johnson (@TB, LV, NYJ, @BUF) and Guyton (@TB, @NO, JAC, @LV) caught a bunch of 40+ yard deep balls last year. Guyton has no such catches this year and Johnson is not even on the team. Those plays do not exist this year. You have Allen with a broken play against Dallas and the two Williams broken coverage plays against Cleveland. Where is the designed deep pass to the speed burner?

Williams may duplicate his deep pass output from last year, but who is going to make up for the drop off on deep passes to Guyton and Johnson? The answer so far is nobody.

[equivocation]

You are, once again, talking around the data rather than supplying the data. Put up or shut up. Completions 25+ yards, normalized, 2021 vs 2020. That's the data set you're claiming. All this other stuff is not that.

[equivocation]

And I guess I should let you know that even if you fetch that info and it says what you think it says, I'm immediately going to come back that LAC offensive epa/play is double last year and Herbert's epa/play is up from last year, even with week 6 dragging down the numbers. IAY/PA is the same even with week 6 dragging down the numbers.

So there's really nothing indicating that throwing bombs increases offensive efficiency for us. Herbert's epa/play weeks 1-6 2021 is higger than weeks 8-17 2020 (after defenses adjusted) 0.180 to 0.157 and IAY/PA is up 7.4 to 6.9

[blueman]

We need to rename this forum, the Guyton Forum (formally the TBilly Forum…).

[powderblueboy]

That is BS.

Guyton has multiple bankable traits (speed and superior contact balance).

My issue is that they are not running enough deep plays for Guyton so he can take advantage of his speed like they did last year. His yards per reception are down by almost 5 yards per reception. And there is no other fast WR taking away deep targets from Guyton like T-Billy did last year. It is only Guyton and the deep passing game has basically disappeared except for two blown coverages against CLE which resulted in long TD passes to Mike Williams.

Guyton has demonstrated tons of separation since the beginning of last year. He has produced numerous wide open routes on deep balls. We simply are not designing deep pass patterns for him this year despite that being the best aspect of Guyton's game. That is precisely how he is being misused.

On numerous plays, both this year and last year, Guyton remains standing after about 4+ defenders have tried to tackle him without success. It is very noticeable.

The stats do not lie. This year, Williams leads the pack at only 15.1 yards per reception. Guyton is second at only 13.4. Last year, Johnson was at 19.9, Guyton was at 18.4 and Williams was at 15.8. Longer passing plays are simply not being called. We are not taking shots.

After we finished our 6th game, we were second in passes attempted and 22nd/23rd (I do not recall exactly) in passing plays over 25 yards. The deep passes, which we did as well or better than everyone last year, are way down in number.

As for Palmer, he has shown nothing, which is why Guyton has outclassed him (more than double the receiving yards) despite being very misused.

Isn't that a running back metric? How does it apply to receivers and how do you measure it?
It sort of sounds like you made it up. Is it where you drop a pass, get blasted by a db and still stay upright?

Herbert ain't seeing the tons of separation: Herbert must flat out suck.

[powderblueboy]

My position is that you meed to supply either completions or attempts of 25+ yards normalized over games or snaps compared to 2020. To support (not prove) your assertion that our downfield routes are down this year. This does not an cannot provide data on average depth of route run (I can't find this anywhere) but it would at least be something other than your anal secretions.

I posted data from sharpfootballstats.com that completions of 15+ yards are up 10% over last year both per game and per attempt in another thread.

They are not completing it to the right guy - so you are wrong!

[powderblueboy]

We need to rename this forum, the Guyton Forum (formally the TBilly Forum…).

And what about Palmer?

[powderblueboy]

You know, what I have said is that so far it looks like I was right about Palmer. The reality is that he has not been good. He has done nothing over the first 6 games. He has not even flashed any potential. He has no bankable physical traits and yes, that matters.

And yes, we probably would be better served by Jason Moore than Palmer at this point, but the reality is that we probably would not be able to waive any third round pick (even Trey Pipkins) to the practice squad. Moore has a couple of bankable traits and probably is a better fit for the plays we are running now than Palmer is.

As for Guyton, he is better than Palmer. Again, just about any NFL WR is going to be better than Palmer at this point because most NFL WRs at least have some bankable traits. That is not to say that Palmer cannot improve, but there is no indication at all that his ceiling is any higher than that of a reserve. He is less than Guyton until he proves that he is better than Guyton, who actually has demonstrated some ability on an NFL field.

As for Lawrence, I stated that he had the most potential of any QB entering the NFL that I can recall ever. That is how he found himself on the worst team in the league. He is very likely to have a better season than Andrew Luck did in his rookie season even after a slow start in terms of passer efficiency. His last three games have featured QB ratings of over 90, which iI as not great, but already demonstrates a positive adjustment. I think he will continue to improve.

Even after Lawrence threw 7 INTs in his first 3 games, Burrow is still throwing INTs at a greater rate than Lawrence is. Lawrence has better tools and has a higher ceiling than Burrow, but Burrow has far better weapons than Lawrence has at this point and one more year of experience. Among non-rookies, Burrow has the worst interception percentage in the league--not a Pro Bowler.

I actually liked both Herbert and Lawrence entering the NFL. I thought that Lawrence had the higher ceiling, but I undervalued Herbert even though I had him as the best QB in his draft class. I think Herbert clearly has had better weapons than Lawrence has had and that Lawrence and Herbert are both very talented. Right now, I would say Herbert has proven to be the better passer of the ball, which is most important, but Lawrence is a better running QB. I think Herbert has played closer to his ceiling than Lawrence has so far. But Lawrence's bankable traits are there in spades.

I actually read this entire post. Give me a medal!