2023 Official Roster Build Thread - The Initial 53 / Practice Squad

[jaguarmanftype]

I'd rather we draft some stud NT in the first round, TBH. One close to elite caliber NT who can penetrate and get pressures while still taking double teams will raise the production of Bosa and Mack, whom I doubt we can move on from this season, all the way to everyone else in the middle and on the backend. It's certainly a better option than trying to find two Pro Bowl potential edge rushers to attempt to replace Bosa and Mack now, which seems unlikely where we pick. I'm hesitant drafting an RB in the first, unless its a generational LT-like talent.

As an aside, I hate that we are carrying these huge contracts for a couple of players. Honestly, for me, the best way is to get a year rental like Von Miller while you try to develop your draft classes assuming you get some edge rushers in the later rounds. Having cap hits over 20 mill for players that aren't QBs, OTs or NTs seems like a poor way to build a sustainable roster.

[Critty]

Hmm, if we average 1 yard more per carry ( from 3.8 to 4.8), I see us grinding out first downs, winning TOP and wearing down defenses.

Does that win games?

I think that 1yd helps quite a bit.
It adds up to 450yds of rush offense. Probably score another TD or 2 in RedZone. As you mentioned TOP and wearing out defenses.

There's also likely to be better execution in play action passing game with that 1 yd of rushing assisting in making that happen. And better RedZone success.

3 and 1 for zero yd and punting it because rush game lacks that 1yd would instead be a 1st down and continue to drive for score or victory formation.

[jamrock]

I'd rather we draft some stud NT in the first round, TBH. One close to elite caliber NT who can penetrate and get pressures while still taking double teams will raise the production of Bosa and Mack, whom I doubt we can move on from this season, all the way to everyone else in the middle and on the backend. It's certainly a better option than trying to find two Pro Bowl potential edge rushers to attempt to replace Bosa and Mack now, which seems unlikely where we pick. I'm hesitant drafting an RB in the first, unless its a generational LT-like talent.

As an aside, I hate that we are carrying these huge contracts for a couple of players. Honestly, for me, the best way is to get a year rental like Von Miller while you try to develop your draft classes assuming you get some edge rushers in the later rounds. Having cap hits over 20 mill for players that aren't QBs, OTs or NTs seems like a poor way to build a sustainable roster.

It’s not just carrying the huge contracts for a few players. It’s getting nothing from those players in a season where we needed at least something. Bosa, JCJ I’m looking at you with a side eye at Keenan

[21&500]

From the Athletic

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is now eligible for a contract extension after completing his third NFL season.

This extension does not necessarily have to get done this offseason. Herbert is under contract for 2023 in the fourth year of his rookie deal. And the Chargers could keep Herbert under team control for an additional four seasons without agreeing to a long-term extension, using the fifth-year team option in 2024 and the franchise tag for the ensuing three seasons.

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But that is incredibly costly, both from a cash and cap perspective. The franchise tag increases by at least 20 percent each time it is used in successive years on a player. Herbert’s fifth-year option in 2024 would cost nearly $30 million against the cap, according to Sports Illustrated. (The Chargers would have the pick that up by the deadline in May.)

Long-term extensions negate some of these immediate cap concerns. Teams can spread money over the length of the contract and create more palatable cap hits early in the deal. There is also much more flexibility on long-term deals in terms of restructuring the contract through various levers — like converting base salary or roster bonuses into signing bonus — to create cap space in any given season.

That is one of many incentives for the Chargers. Another one: The price of contracts only go up as the cap increases. That is especially true at the most important position in the sport. The earlier an extension gets done, the better it typically looks for the team in context, as long as that player continues to perform.

(Before we dive into the numbers, all salary cap figures are courtesy of Over The Cap unless otherwise noted.)

GO DEEPER

Chargers 2023 Offseason Handbook: Cap space, roster needs, free agency and more

Consider the deal the Chargers signed Mike Williams to before free agency last offseason, which came out to $20 million in average annual value. The price for receivers exploded in the months after Williams signed his deal. Tyreek Hill signed for $30 million in average annual value. Davante Adams signed for $28 million in AAV. Cooper Kupp for $26.7 million. A.J. Brown for $25 million. Stefon Diggs and DK Metcalf for $24 million. The Williams deal looks like a steal in hindsight, even if he missed some time last season with a high ankle sprain and then a fractured back.

For Herbert, the primary incentives are a big immediate payday by way of a signing bonus and the long-term security of an extension. Dak Prescott waited on his extension, instead choosing to play on the franchise tag in 2020. He broke his ankle in Week 5 and missed the rest of the season. Prescott still got his top-of-the-market deal in the 2021 offseason. But the broader point is there is an inherent injury risk by going the fifth-year option/franchise tag route and choosing to play year-to-year.

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I think the incentives on both sides are significant enough for this Herbert extension to get done sometime this offseason. Recent precedent, too, tells us that quality quarterbacks typically sign their first extension after their third seasons. Patrick Mahomes signed his after his third season in July 2020. Josh Allen signed his after his third season in August 2021. Kyler Murray signed his after his third season in July 2022.

There are exceptions, of course. Like Prescott, though his situation was slightly different because he was a fourth-round pick and, as such, did not have a fifth-year option available on his rookie deal. Those only exist in contracts for first-round picks. Lamar Jackson is another exception. He just played the 2022 season on a fifth-year option that cost the Ravens $23.02 million against the cap. But Jackson is also a slightly different example because he does not have an agent and represents himself.

If Herbert and the Chargers do agree to an extension this offseason, the timing will be interesting. Joe Burrow is also eligible for an extension. Both he and Herbert will command top-of-the-market contracts. The first contract signed will effectively serve as the floor in negotiations for the other. So there is some value in waiting for both players. Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa are among the other QBs from the 2020 draft class also extension-eligible this offseason.

That brings us to the final component of Herbert’s extension: How much money are we talking about here?

Aaron Rodgers currently tops the quarterback market with the two-year extension he signed with the Packers last March. The average annual value of that contract is $50.27 million. Any upper-tier quarterback, like Herbert, will likely be looking to beat that AAV number this offseason.

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The somewhat counterintuitive aspect of NFL contracts — and particularly quarterback contracts — is that timing matters more than anything, as long as the quality of the player reaches a certain threshold.

Murray signed for an AAV of $46.1 million in July 2022. Allen signed for $43 million in AAV in August 2021. I doubt you can find anyone outside of Arizona who would tell you Murray is a better player than Allen. The only difference is Murray signed 11 months later, after Deshaun Watson signed an extension with the Browns for $46 million in AAV and Russell Wilson signed an extension with the Broncos for $49 million.

Watson’s contract will unavoidably be a component in Herbert’s negotiations. After the Texans traded Watson to Cleveland, he signed a fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million contract with the Browns. It remains the most fully guaranteed money ever agreed to in an NFL contract. It is still $106 million more fully guaranteed than any other QB contract. Wilson is second with $124 million fully guaranteed.

I do not think there is any scenario in which the Chargers agree to the types of guarantees the Browns gave Watson. If Herbert is looking for that type of contract, the negotiations could be tense. The AAV value is nice for the public announcement. The guaranteed money is what affects the player the most. Non-guaranteed money in contracts is how teams create escape hatches.

In the end, I think there is a happy medium that is fair for both Herbert and the Chargers.

My projection for Herbert’s extension if it happens this offseason: six years, $295 million, $135 million fully guaranteed at signing.

His average annual value would come out to $49.17 million, above Wilson and second to only Rodgers, whose AAV came on a two-year deal as opposed to a long-term extension. Herbert would get the most guaranteed money at signing of any quarterback outside out Watson, besting Wilson by $10 million. He would also have a higher percentage of money fully guaranteed at signing than Murray.

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There is my prediction. We will see how it plays out in the coming months.

(Photo: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)

[charger1_sj]

Reports this morning claim the Chargers will be releasing K. Allen and Everett. Not sure how reliable.

[Topcat]

Reports this morning claim the Chargers will be releasing K. Allen and Everett. Not sure how reliable.

Popper thinks the Bolts could let Allen go:

"The Athletic's Daniel Popper personally believes Allen is likely to be released, humorously estimating there is only a 38.7 percent chance the receiver remains in Los Angeles this offseason. The reporter noted that the Bolts would save $17.5 million by executing the move.

With L.A. estimated to be approximately $20 million over the cap, cutting Allen could solve most of organization's financial issues in a single move. It will leave the Chargers in need of a high-end wideout, but the team does hold three selections within the first 86 picks of the upcoming draft and could unearth a rookie to develop with Herbert for the foreseeable future."

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10064872-predicting-the-nfls-most-surprising-cuts-of-the-2023-offseason

[charger1_sj]

Popper thinks the Bolts could let Allen go:

"The Athletic's Daniel Popper personally believes Allen is likely to be released, humorously estimating there is only a 38.7 percent chance the receiver remains in Los Angeles this offseason. The reporter noted that the Bolts would save $17.5 million by executing the move.

With L.A. estimated to be approximately $20 million over the cap, cutting Allen could solve most of organization's financial issues in a single move. It will leave the Chargers in need of a high-end wideout, but the team does hold three selections within the first 86 picks of the upcoming draft and could unearth a rookie to develop with Herbert for the foreseeable future."https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...2023-offseason

Yeah that one has been around for a while now. This is a different source. I'll see if I can dig it up.

[sonorajim]

The Chargers may be floating a rumor as a bargaining chip. It's guaranteed that the team isn't discussing their business with reporters or at a bar.
We'll see. If so WR moves to #1 need position.

[charger1_sj]

The Chargers may be floating a rumor as a bargaining chip. It's guaranteed that the team isn't discussing their business with reporters or at a bar.
We'll see. If so WR moves to #1 need position.

Certainly not coming from the Charger brass. It's more cap analysis guys that are making projections on how the Chargers can
get under the cap. At this point we can chalk it up as rumors. But as we get closer to (March 15th, I think it is). The drum beats
will get louder.

[Lefty2SLO]

The Chargers may be floating a rumor as a bargaining chip. It's guaranteed that the team isn't discussing their business with reporters or at a bar.
We'll see. If so WR moves to #1 need position.

It's the 'year too soon' philosophy. Not sure how I feel about this. Why wouldn't they attempt to trade him instead?

[charger1_sj]

It's the 'year too soon' philosophy. Not sure how I feel about this. Why wouldn't they attempt to trade him instead?

They certainly could. But any team getting him would have to deal with his contract. After all that's the reason the Chargers
would want to dispose of him. He's turning 31 in April and so a restructure is seen as risky. If I were that team I'd wait until
he's released, if it happens.

[Boltjolt]

Yeah that one has been around for a while now. This is a different source. I'll see if I can dig it up.

Source from where?

Nevermind, saw the other post. We'll see how it shakes out. Those are just projection guys, no real value on it. Could happen, could not.