Thoughts On Cutting Keenan Allen?

[jamrock]

Warren Sharp Analysis

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.co...-top-100-list/

Did you read the linked article in the post you quoted?

[ghost]

Did you read the linked article in the post you quoted?

Keenan Allen is the 8th WR in the league and I consider his contract an issue. What did I miss? Please come the point.

[Boltnut]

I think you have to look at the contract of the player and the intent of coach/GM.

The contract: KA's contract pays him $21.7 million next year. For a guy that has caught the 4th most passes over the last 5 years... this is still a decent deal for the team. The $6.9 million in dead cap (if he's cut) implies that they intend to keep him. Injury was a major disappointment. When he came back, he performed at a Pro Bowl rate (extrapolated... 127 receptions for 1400 yards and 8 TD's). That type of production is worth $21.7 million.

The intent: When the Chargers signed Mack, MW, and JCJ to big contracts last off-season... the intent was to make a Super Bowl push for the next 2 years (when Herbert was still on a rookie pay scale). Each and every one of those contracts were structured accordingly. Trading away a 2nd and a 6th round pick for Mack also suggests a short term run rather than a longer-term roster build. Injuries derailed the 2022 season. I doubt those unfortunate events will derail the initial intent for this next year. Cutting/trading KA inhibits this quest. I think they're still going for it. We're closer now than we've ever been.

Everyone is concerned about the 2023 cap... and rightly so. But re-structures to Bosa and MW (younger players) along with certain cuts to Feiler and Hopkins (replacements already in place) get us under the cap. If they decide to extend Vato (he deserves it) they can create even more space. Yes, the re-structures and extensions dig into the 2024 cap. But 2024 is the year you look to cutting players. Keenan's salary will be $25.8 million... but only $2.7 million dead cap. His contract is structured for cutting in 2024 (the year you need more cap room for Herbert re-sign)... not 2023. Khalil Mack's contract is structured similarly. $27.75 million in 2024 with $4.5 million in dead cap. That's $23.1 million savings and $23.25 million savings respectively.

I'm almost certain they're keeping KA, Mack, Bosa, and MW for 2023. We're just a much better team... and make a legitimate SB push next year. KA is a big part of that formula.

[ghost]

So out of 64 starting WRs he is still top 10. Out of 32 #1 WRs, he is 8th best which is ironic since he is 11th in top WR salaries.
And ranked 35th of the top 100 players.

He is a bargain!

Salary rankings below

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings...wide-receiver/

Bargain? We will disagree on that point then. When the highest paid position on offense is PUP to perform in nearly half his games, it's a freakin' problem.

For the umpteenth time, better to get rid of a player a year to early than a year too, that is the reality, what else is there to discuss? There is tape to watch on WR and loads of later round skill players watch to get younger, faster, healthier, and cheaper at the position.

On the grief scale, I am at a 5 of acceptance and I've made peace and to quote Belichick 'I'm on to Cincinnati', as I saw this coming in early December.

[Boltjolt]

Bargain? We will disagree on that point then. When the highest paid position on offense is PUP to perform in nearly half his games, it's a freakin' problem.

For the umpteenth time, better to get rid of a player a year to early than a year too, that is the reality, what else is there to discuss? There is tape to watch on WR and loads of later round skill players watch to get younger, faster, healthier, and cheaper at the position.

On the grief scale, I am at a 5 of acceptance and I've made peace and to quote Belichick 'I'm on to Cincinnati', as I saw this coming in early December.

Injuries don't care how much they make. Derrick Henry missed time, Kupp missed time, Stafford, SF entire QB corps, Chase Young, Joey Bosa...the list is long.

Also imo if we release him , we would be releasing him 2 years early. Mack is the guy for that category ....a year early, but I know we gave up picks for him. I'd also hate to only get 1 year from him but he fits the year early saying.

Look I know you don't want to discuss this. You were clear and I'm good with your opinion. However I don't think he is going anywhere.
But others like Nutty are hammering it home a lot more than i am. I just happen to agree with him, but Hec I even gave it a When I said he was a bargain.

[SuperCharged]

It's a shame Telesco gave all our money to injury prone players. Bosa, Derwin, JC Jackson, MWill. Great job.

Such a funny comment.

So if he doesn't pay Bosa or Derwin. TT should let them walk? He would have gotten crucified if that happened. JC Jackson? He was the #1 free agent on all boards. Everyone loved the pick up. We are not fortune tellers like you critty we couldn't have foreseen the injury. I wish you could have told TT ahead of that FA signing. MW? Gross overpayment IMO. But did we have anyone in place to replace him? No.

Your comment has no merit, no real objectivity. All based on hindsight.

To me it's alway better to move on from a player a year early, rather than a year late.

[wu-dai clan]

So...why was Palmer drafted ?
And...why does Slayer's contract have an out ?
Keenan and his agent understand this is business.
March 9, 2023.
I circled this calendar date long ago.

[ghost]

So...why was Palmer drafted ?
And...why does Slayer's contract have an out ?
Keenan and his agent understand this is business.
March 9, 2023.
I circled this calendar date long ago.

IMO, it's about production displacement and Dallas went through this exact scenario of uncertainty surrounding their offense last spring and Kellen Moore and his staff handled that situation beautifully. Dallas fans sweated it anyway. The consternation surrounding Keenan here is astounding to me as the end results in Dallas were superb.

https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2023/2/7/23589256/re-draft-2022-nfl-draft-cowboys-tyler-smith-first-offensive-lineman-taken

[ghost]

You can't stop what's comin. Ain't all waitin' on you....That's vanity. - Ellis

Aside from Texas writers, let's focus on Texas football, pardner.

OL La'el Collins, WR Amari Cooper, and WR Cedrick Wilson all left Big D after the 2021 season. The panic in Big D was palpable and further fed by short-sighted journalism that overlooked Dallas offensive staff - their ability and acumen - to evaluate, draft and coach-up 2022 draft prospects. Outcome: The Cowboys matched the previous year's record of 12-5 and advanced into the division round. I call that a success.

2022	1	1	24	24	Tyler Smith	T	Tulsa
	2	2	24	56	Sam Williams	DE	Mississippi
	3	3	24	88	Jalen Tolbert	WR	South Alabama
	4	4	24	129	Jake Ferguson	TE	Wisconsin
	5	5	12	155	Matt Waletzko	T	North Dakota
	6	5	24	167	DaRon Bland	DB	Fresno State
	7	5	33	176	Damone Clark	LB	Louisiana State
	8	5	35	178	John Ridgeway	DT	Arkansas
	9	6	14	193	Devin Harper	LB	Oklahoma State

[Steve]

He is nowhere near Kelce, just like Allen isn't an elite receiver. But you can't say Henry is nowhere near the rest, since he's been with Mac Jones for the last two years, and played in an offense coordinated by Matt Patricia this past season. Henry with Herbert the last two years and beyond I have little doubt would have been just as productive as Hurts to Goedert.

We may not have what you consider a replacement for Allen on the roster, but he is nowhere near irreplaceable. He never has been, but especially at this point in his career he is not. This is evidenced by the reality that we won't be able to get anything for him in a trade.

If we do have a dropoff after Allen leaves I don't see it being that big of a deal, since I believe with the addition of Moore we will finally focus on building a strong running game to complement the quarterback, whether it's by drafting Bijan Robinson in the first or getting someone else in the second.

I don't know what you mean by an "elite" receiver. It is like saying who is the "best". It all depends on whatever subjective criteria you pick. You can easily definite it in such a way as to prove your point either way. But the fact is that when Allen was down, the other receivers really didn't step up and play well. They were OK, but Allen is still our best receiver outside of Ekeler, and it's not really close. But if you have a hard-on for speed guys ... or really tall guys ... or super athletic guys ... or whatever category, then Allen isn't your guy. Fine, but when Allen wasn't on the field last year, the O was not nearly as good.

If you have ever watched much football, you know it is not about being whatever adjective you want. You need a roster full of good players. The 3rd WR guys we have are not at the level, and having 1 really good guy with no other help around him is not going to help. We could have the best WR in football (whatever that means) and all that is going to happen is that best or elite guy is going to get doubled and triple teamed on every play. How many times did Rivers face a Gates and Floyd BOTH getting double teamed and no where to go with the ball late in the game???? We need enough weapons to keep good defenses from taking away Herbert's options. And if they rush 4, that leave 7 defenders in coverage, so that is 2 double teams vs the 5 receviers. We need a minimum of a 3rd real weapon.

The Chargers need and more real weapons. I think the crew of 3rd WR guys is a good group, but one or more of them needs to step up and become a top-notch player. They caught too many of their passes on soft spots, or on manufactured plays. Our WR did not do a good job of challenging D, and winning the matchups. It's not all their fault. The rest of the O was not very good either. The OL struggled in pass protection. The RB had trouble with consistency. The TE were AWFUL, they didn't help in the running game, and were a liability in the running game.

The TE part was just a huge part to me. We didn't attack defenses in the middle and it gave teams a chance to clamp down on our WR. People bitched about Lombardi not sending WR deep, but he did. But by not attacking the middle of the field, teams took our WR away, and were able to force us to just check down. The lack of pass protection took away our crossing routes. The O was just not as good as it needed to be. And with a shitty D, that is not a good thing.

The other thing is what makes anyone think it is a great thing to try and transform the Chargers into a running team? We are going to be (probably) throwing huge amounts of money into our franchise QB to have him handoff? How is that a good use of our resources? That is just about the dumbest thing that I can think of.

The guy I think we need to try and find a way to get is Dalton Kincaid. While I haven't gotten through every TE in the draft, he is clearly the only one with Kelce/Goddert/Waller type of ability. There are plenty of inline TE in this years draft. This is actually the best inline TE crop I can remember, but none of them is going to put up the type of production that a Kelce or Gates type of Flex/slot TE is going to get. Kincaid is never going to be a great inline blocker, but he can attack the whole field.

Washington and Mayer (or a lot of the others) will probably be good NFL TE. But they are inline guys. The ceiling for inline types is a lot lower. Henry is an inline guy, so maybe he has 1 great super productive years, but he is never going to have that year in year out production against DB that Kelce and Gates had. We could use an inline guy who can block, and catch some shorter stuff and get a lot of boring, but useful yards. But they aren't going the challenge a D the way the flexed guys do and the only flexed TE in the draft is Kincaid.

[Boltnut]

Josh Wylie would be good value

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXvHXaeJzBA

[Boltjolt]

Josh Wylie would be good value

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXvHXaeJzBA

I like him too, he is good value if you can get him in the 5th.