Thoughts On Cutting Keenan Allen?

[Boltjolt]

According to PFF, they have both.

Hmm, well, he has Verrett durability so he is a nobody lol.

[wu-dai clan]

Oh some of us are thinking about that, lol.

So if we draft Bijan at #21, are we really turning into a predominantly running team ?

Watch these guys run routes.
Watch the way they catch the ball.
Add that to Ekeler, in the same package.

[dmac_bolt]

This is the correct, reasonable approach IMO.

It will absolutely sting to lose KA, but we are not competing for the next two years anyway as we navigate cap hell and the bad contracts TT has saddled us with.

We also have to come to grips that Herbert has yet to show he is THE guy, and pushing more money to the future only hinders the possibility of being able to pull a HARD reset after 2024 should Herbert fizzle out and Staley/TT are finally gone. The x factor in all this is what happens with Dean vs Dea. Would be nice for the incoming front office (and new owner????) to have some $$ to work with after 2024.

This is where having a good, creative GM could help navigate some of these rough seas. Or at least draft well.

20M cap hole isn’t a 5 year journey from hell, and Herbie absolutely not just the guy, HE IS THE MAN!

[Steve]

You are wandering off topic.

The assertion made by Steve is that by drafting a rb in the first round, we will be moving more towards being a running team.
Seems like a fairly save assumption.

Maybe it is a good thing....no one looks at it from that point of view.
Somehow, this has created controversy.

Focus on running more, and you'll take away from the crispness of your passing attack: which wasn't all that crisp last year.
Don't focus on practicing run blocking schemes, and hand it off to a new back - don't expect a big difference in results.

With Peyton Manning, the Colts drafted Edgerin James and then when he retired, they drafted Joseph Addae and then another 1rst rounder (who ended up briefly on the Chargers).

Come to think of it, those teams generally underpeformed in the playoffs.

Part of the running and passing games not being all that crisp was the injuries. It was tough on Salyer, Johnson and Feiler (stuck between injured guys). It's tough for the OL when they don't work together and a couple of the guys are still working on their fundamentals.

Adding Robinson would be investing a lot of draft/cap capital in a player that we would probably be underutilizing him. Right now, our OL is built of mostly pass blockers, not great run blockers. We don't block well from the TE position. Our FB doesn't block well. Our WR didn't have a great season run blocking except for Guyton, who didn't play much before he was hurt.

At the same time, we don't have a D that can stop the run, and even in their "good" games, the pass defense has times they struggle. In terms of getting the best out of our D would be to keep throwing the ball downfield, add in some better blocking up front and just try to go for incremental improvements in the running game.

Incremental improvements are adding another OL to play either RT or G, depending on where Salyer ends up. Adding TE who not only can attack a secondary in the passing game, but stop so much edge penetration on running downs.

I think adding Robinson is kinda wasting his potential on a team that isn't ready for it, and may never fully utilize it. This is Herbert's team and is always going to be built around him throwing the ball downfield. Unless we see Robinson as a guy who can play like Ekeler, spending a bunch of time as a slot, we have a lot of work to do on the roster before we can truely take advantage of him.

[Lefty2SLO]

20M cap hole isn’t a 5 year journey from hell, and Herbie absolutely not just the guy, HE IS THE MAN!

Agreed . . . . .with ALL!

With proper management, good health and excellent coaching this team (and Herbert) can beat anyone. Problem lately is that all we've had is Herbert, none (or at least not enough) of the other 3 things. I've said it before, but If we didn't have Herbert to save our bacon this team would have won 4 or 5 game (max) each of the last 2 seasons, and Staley would be on the street looking for a new job . . . .

[Steve]

So if we draft Bijan at #21, are we really turning into a predominantly running team ?

Watch these guys run routes.
Watch the way they catch the ball.
Add that to Ekeler, in the same package.

Aren't you underutilizing a guy like Robinson if you don't go to a mostly running offense? Do you want the ball out of Herbert's hands? Especially throwing the ball downfield. And where do the weapons in the passing game come from if we spend it on a RB (again assuming we cut Allen)?

When I watch Robinson, so many of his best runs, he is behind someone pulling and leading, and he is just SOOO good at timing when to make his move and his vision going into and out of his cut. That's great, but how many NFL OL are doing a lot of pulling and leading of their OL, TE and FB? NFL DL and LB are so quick, those plays get blown up a lot.

The RB is not going to fix the running game problem, at least not by itself. We still need OL, TE and FB.

Is he the best RB in college for the last several years? No question, he is. The question just comes down to whether or not spending a top pick on a RB is worth it. And that is just about as much about who else is available at 21. And how many other good backs are there (there are several).

Here is a video of every touch he had in college (and a few blocks).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ri9bO7qk2c&ab_channel=NashTalksTexas

[Boltjolt]

Aren't you underutilizing a guy like Robinson if you don't go to a mostly running offense?

Maybe if we had a guy like Robinson we wouldn't throw it 699 times.
We have Ekeler who wants somebody else to help carry the load and some jags who one hasn't got a real shot yet.

I don't see a downside to drafting Robinson. When we drafted James Brooks we didn't need a RB but he was great and glad we had him.

[DerwinBosa]

What is missing in the discussion is the fact that Bijan, Jahmyr, and Tyjae are all RB--WR's.

Think of SF with CMC and Deebo.

Think of the Kellen Moore offense.

There will be mismatches.

If you considered LaDainian Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, and Roger Craig running backs/wide receivers, then yes Bijan Robinson would fit that. These were great running backs who could also catch the ball very well out of the backfield. In Tomlinson's case he caught 100 in a season he also ran for 1,645 yards. I'm not saying Robinson would ever do that. I would be happy with 1,200 rushing yards and 30 receptions from him while Ekeler catches the bulk of Herbert's passes to running backs.

It's not lost on me that Robinson can catch the football. For example, in the game powderblueboy is saying Robinson was trash, against Alabama, Bijan caught three passes for 73 yards. But we would be drafting Robinson in hopes he would carry the ball between 15-20 times a game, which would increase time of possession for us, and take some pressure off of Herbert. Increased time of possession equates to more plays, so it's not like Herbert would throw it around the same amount of times Stan Humphries did in 1994. Hopefully it will be reduced from the ridiculous 699 times Herbert threw this past season, a career-high in attempts that somehow resulted in a career-low for touchdown passes.

This past season Austin Ekeler carried the ball 12 times a game and Herbert threw it an average of 41. I don't think it would make us "a running team" if we drafted Bijan Robinson and he carried about five more times a game and Herbert reduced his average attempts per game to the low-to-mid-thirties.

And instead of Herbert throwing 39 passes with consistent three- and four-and-outs and the running backs getting only 10 carries for 14 yards in a 34-6 blowout loss to the Baltimore Ravens (2021), perhaps we wouldn't give up on the running game so easily if we had a back such as Robinson. Instead of saying, "Oh we couldn't run the ball, anyway...look at what Ekeler and Kelley did..." we would have a first-round pick to rely on to get that running game going..

Why all of this would be so difficult for some people to accept is beyond my knowledge.

[DerwinBosa]

John Ross (who was not active at all during the season) and Kadarius Toney were both former 1st round picks. Toney was fairly productive for a player picked up mid-season, and played a key role in the Jags game. Hardman, Sky Moore and JuJu are all 2nd round picks. Kelce is a 3rd, and his backups are both 5th rounders.

The point of targeting top draft picks at certain positions isn't if you COULD add a top player. The laws of probability will tell you that there is always a non-zero chance of finding a good player in a later round. It has never been a question of if it is possible or not. The bigger question is how LIKELY is it, and to a lesser degree, how effective will players taken then be vs compared to guys taken at another round. Most DT who are undrafted FA's are not going to play as well as John Randle, who was one of the greatest undrafted players of all time. Every year, NFL teams usually have several undrafted FA DT in camp, and most will never be much of anything. If you want someone with the speed to be a great pass rusher and has the pedigree, they are likely to be a high pick.

My point is if you are targeting a key player that you want to rely on, you might not want to rely too much on UDFA and late-round draft picks to be the pro bowl starters. You could get lucky and find someone who is a GOAT, but the odds are against it. If you are drafting at the top of the draft, and you find someone worthy of that pick, it is going to be a lot less surprising.

The other thing we could do is pay extra close attention to guys with flags, and trying to manage the "risk" associated with them. KC has done very well managing risk with players like that. Tyreek Hill was a 1st round talent they got in the 5th round because of his girlfriend beating ways. I don't think there was much of a surprise that he would turn out to be a great WR, IF he was able to avoid being suspended. Jared Allen was regarded by a few scouts but largely fell off of a few teams radars because of his drinking and DUIs.

Kadarius Toney was not drafted by the Chiefs and was given up on by the New York Giants, who desperately needed a receiver. It's very nice that Toney had a key punt return for the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, but nobody is drafting a receiver in the first round with the expectation that he'll catch only 55 passes in his first two years. John Ross signed a reserve/futures contract with the Chiefs on January 9 of this year. He was out of the NFL for the 2022 regular season, and I think it's fair to say he'll be back out of the NFL soon. Since being drafted ninth overall in 2017, Ross has caught 62 passes in 37 games. Juju was not drafted by the Chiefs, either, so I don't know what point you were trying to make there.

I'm still waiting on an answer of who's a better option than Bijan Robinson in the first round. If you can tell me there will be a player at another position available at #21 who would be able to make a greater impact for the Chargers I will be all about picking him. If you can't, I'll just be even more confused as to why you're so against Robinson.

[jubei]

why would drafting a RB in the 1st rd mean we'd tie too much cap to him? RB's dont make the kind of money like they did back in the LT days right? I'm just positing this question...I'm a know-nothing nobody who wouldnt mind drafting a supposed very good RB in the 1st if he can help get this O performing better.

[DerwinBosa]

You are wandering off topic.

The assertion made by Steve is that by drafting a rb in the first round, we will be moving more towards being a running team.
Seems like a fairly save assumption.

Maybe it is a good thing....no one looks at it from that point of view.
Somehow, this has created controversy.

Focus on running more, and you'll take away from the crispness of your passing attack: which wasn't all that crisp last year.
Don't focus on practicing run blocking schemes, and hand it off to a new back - don't expect a big difference in results.

With Peyton Manning, the Colts drafted Edgerin James and then when he retired, they drafted Joseph Addae and then another 1rst rounder (who ended up briefly on the Chargers).

Come to think of it, those teams generally underpeformed in the playoffs.

I'm not wandering off topic at all. Nice try, though.

Since you brought up Peyton Manning.

In 2006, during the prime of his career, he won his first Super Bowl while throwing three touchdown passes and nine interceptions in the playoffs.I'll go game by game.

In the 23-8 Wild Card win over the Chiefs, Peyton completed 30-38 for 268 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. Joseph Addai ran for 122 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. Dominic Rhodes added 68 yards on 13 carries.

In the 15-6 win over the Ravens in the Divisional Round, Peyton completed 15-30 for 170 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. Dominic Rhodes carried the ball 14 times for 56 yards. Joseph Addai added 39 yards on 18 carries. It wasn't a good game for any of them, but keep in mind the Colts' running backs ran it 32 times and Peyton threw it 30 in the win.

In the 38-34 win over the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, Peyton completed 27-47 for 349 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He also had a quarterback sneak for a touchdown. Rhodes had 69 yards on 14 carries. Addai had 56 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries.

In the 29-17 win over the Bears in the Super Bowl, Peyton completed 25-38 for 247 yards, one touchdown, and interception. Rhodes ran for 113 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries (he should have been MVP). Addai had 77 yards on 19 carries.

So in those postseason wins, the Colts' running backs ran the ball 38 times in the Wild Card Round, 32 times in the Divisional Round, 28 times in the AFC Championship Game, and 40 times in the Super Bowl.

Were the 2006 Colts considered a running team? No, it's called being balanced, and it was the only time Peyton won a Super Bowl as a Colt.

The following year we beat the Colts in the Divisional Round. Peyton completed 33-48 for 402 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. His running backs ran it 17 times for 50 yards.

In 2008 we beat the Colts in the Wild Card Round. Peyton completed 25-42 for 310 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. The Colts' running backs ran it 20 times for 56 yards. Our running backs ran it 31 times for 154 yards and three touchdowns.

We lost in the Divisional Round to the 9-7 Jets the following year. Rivers completed 27-40 for 298 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Our running backs carried the ball 15 times for 57 yards. The Jets' running backs carried the ball 37 times for 168 yards and a touchdown. Mark Sanchez had 100 yards passing in the game.

I could go on and on and on with this, as there are endless examples, but even Peyton Manning needed a running game to complement him so he could win a Super Bowl. Mahomes just won a Super Bowl in which he threw for only 182 yards while his running backs ran for 115 (Mahomes also added 43 rushing yards himself).

Having a running game doesn't mean your aerial attack will be neglected. It is there to support the passing game.

[21&500]

You're not going to find a bigger advocate for WR or TE than I, and frankly it's satisfying to see so many of you come around to the conclusion many of us have known since before last season, which is that we need more speed and explosive pass catchers.
wts, Bijan is an absolute no-brainer and there is no way he is available to us at 21. Imo none.
Of all the weapons in this draft, I think Hyatt is the best fit for us and yet, I think I'd go Bijan over Hyatt.

Bijan projects to be top 3 in the league in his position
who else in this draft projects to be top 3 in their position?
Hyatt isn't ever going to be an elite WR, if we draft him, it's to be another valuable weapon and open up the offense.
But Bijan could quite possibly become an elite rb.
Bijan by most accounts is a true, "generational talent" even as loosely as that term has been thrown around lately.

Bijan could be the best back of all the other true AFC condenters, (Bills, Bengals, Baltimore, even KC with Pacheco). That would be a huge edge.
with Bijan we could feasibly shift the offense if our passing game stalls.

If Bijan is elite, I'd be happy to have him for his 5 years and be done. That's a nice window for Herbert.