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Originally posted by Critty
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First, you are trying use a sample size of one game to determine how Rivers will play behind a better OL. I suspect his year end QB rating will be well above 88.7.
Second, you are trying and failing to impute team results to the QBs when the player stats prove that Rivers had a much better game than Taylor. So, since that fact is objectively demonstrable, there must have been other reasons for the results that were achieved, reasons that you are completely ignoring in your quest to be a hater.
Third, and along those lines, the Colts defense played horribly and the Chargers defense played well (and got lucky that Burrow missed multiple wide open TD passes). The Colts defense did not get two turnovers and you can't just assume that defensive takeaways will be consistent from week to week. If you assume the same defensive performance by both teams in an effort to isolate just the QB play last Sunday, do you still get the same result? No way.
Fourth, your analysis of Rivers' blame for the impact of the turnovers is off. You discuss points off of turnovers as if the Colts would not have been giving Jacksonville the ball anyway on the next play if there had been incompletions instead of INTs. Both INTs were on 3rd down. If you use expected point differentials based upon starting field position and assume a net of about 40 yards on punts (a little more or less does not significantly change the analysis), you get an expected total point differential for both INTs combined of about 6 points versus the obvious 9-17 points that were left on the field by the offense, coaches, and special teams through no fault of Rivers. Assigning expected values from the turnovers, Rivers' performance even with the INTs should have produced a win with an expected margin of anywhere from 6-14 points, which is accomplished by reducing the margin from 7 to 3 (due to expected turnover value being lower) and adding back in the value of the screwups that were not Rivers fault--the 9 to 17 points.
Fifth, given the narrow margin against the reigning worst team in the NFL, it is clear that if Taylor plays like he did on Sunday (as a bottom 5 QB), we will not be beating anyone else this season. You can go ahead and call the Lynn/Taylor offensive approach a success if you want, but I would call it a complete failure--virtually zero production against a terrible team with a terrible defense without its best player and a terrible offense (giving us possession after possession).
Sixth, do not kid yourself. If Rivers were playing for the Chargers last Sunday, we win by 20+ points. While Rivers was completing 78.2% (36-46) of his passes for 363 yards, Taylor was completing 53.3% (16-30) of his passes for 208 yards. While focusing on INTs by Rivers, you completely ignore that his team turned the ball over on downs at the JAC 3 yard line, missed a 30 yard FG, and dropped multiple passes on the final drive, including the key 4th down drop by Hilton when Rivers had the Colts deep in Jacksonville territory with 48 seconds left and on the way to the game equalizing TD. While one can argue over whether or not Rivers is worth $25M, one cannot reasonably argue that Taylor is better than Rivers. The view that Taylor is better than Rivers is utterly ridiculous.
Did you also think that the Tebow led Broncos won games because of Denver's great offense or are you able to see that those Broncos won games in spite of their bad offense just like we did on Sunday?
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